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Author Topic: COVID19  (Read 66698 times)
neeko
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« Reply #2340 on: May 20, 2020, 08:59:42 AM »

How long as a society can we wait for a vaccine?

If a totally successful vaccine does not inoculate the entire population of the the world by the end of 2021 would we still be in lockdown by Christmas 2021, not having met grandparents in nearly 2 years?

If a vaccine is produced but it only knocks 50% off the death rate and has side effects which harm 0.1% of young people, should it be used?

Will any vaccine be compulsory?

If Trump announces a successful vaccine in October, 2 weeks before the US election, do we believe him?

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nirvana
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« Reply #2341 on: May 20, 2020, 10:07:37 AM »

How long as a society can we wait for a vaccine?

If a totally successful vaccine does not inoculate the entire population of the the world by the end of 2021 would we still be in lockdown by Christmas 2021, not having met grandparents in nearly 2 years?

If a vaccine is produced but it only knocks 50% off the death rate and has side effects which harm 0.1% of young people, should it be used?

Will any vaccine be compulsory?

If Trump announces a successful vaccine in October, 2 weeks before the US election, do we believe him?

We should proceed from right now as if one is never found. Plan to have as much risk as possible eliminated (including genuine track and trace capability even if it takes 50,000 people) and then have everything open by something like end of June. Let adult individuals decide the level of risk they are prepared to take in terms of visiting the disease on their weak and elderly friends and relatives. Have a clear testing capability for anyone entering a care home or hospital.

It's taking a long time to get deaths and new infections down to really low numbers so track and trace works - we can expect that this will happen in the next 3-4 weeks but from then, a very complex issue should should be easy in the sense that not moving forward is not an option.  Government and businesses only need continue to do real things that reduce risk as far as possible and let the rest of us make our own choices.


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kukushkin88
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« Reply #2342 on: May 20, 2020, 10:08:14 AM »

How long as a society can we wait for a vaccine?

If a totally successful vaccine does not inoculate the entire population of the the world by the end of 2021 would we still be in lockdown by Christmas 2021, not having met grandparents in nearly 2 years?

If a vaccine is produced but it only knocks 50% off the death rate and has side effects which harm 0.1% of young people, should it be used?

Will any vaccine be compulsory?

If Trump announces a successful vaccine in October, 2 weeks before the US election, do we believe him?


The answer in the short/medium term won’t be a vaccine, really strict lockdown followed by extensive contact tracing is working, it’s not an option at the moment for the lockdown lite nations.

Of course we shouldn’t believe Trump in a spot like that, same as , Putin and Bolsonaro, everything should be assumed to be untrue unless there is comprehensive corroborating information provided.
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #2343 on: May 20, 2020, 10:14:25 AM »

...‘As soon as something becomes a secret, it is no longer science’. ...

That literally makes no sense.

A lot of maths in history (for example) has been discovered by lone mavericks - is it not science because they were doing it by themselves?
If someone is investigating something and brings in a few colleagues to help - is that not science because it's secret from everyone outside of that group?
If a state is developing some top secret scientific project (like splitting the atom for example) - is that not science because it's internationally secret?

Science is the scientific process, I can't see how open it is can have any effect.


...
Life lesson (took me a long time to learn this one): When we don’t know something, be completely open about our ignorance, almost proud of it and then proceed with caution, an endless desire to learn and an open mind.

In terms of the school's re-opening - how much damage do you think is done by a year 6 pupil having 6 weeks off at summer before they start secondary school?
How much difference does it make if they come from a poorer background?
How much does that effect their results in secondary school?
How much does that effect their ongoing health into adulthood?

How much worse do you think a 6 month gap instead of a 6 week gap would be?

I don’t know the answers to part two of the response, I don’t think anyone does. So it’s hard to assign it an appropriate value in weighting what is undoubtedly a difficult decision.

Yes - they (some experts) do have a pretty good idea about all of them (apart from the last one, and you can infer that).

Basically - a lot, even more (about twice as much), a lot, a significant amount and nobody knows because it's never been done at this scale before but all the evidence would suggest a considerable amount of harm.

I could get the study I did as part of my PGCE but that was a bit London centric and the gist matters more than exact numbers anyway.

My point is that this is one consideration, for one year group, for one stage of the education system.

In all the points you raised that you considered to be important there wasn't a single mention of education or learning.

And just like the economy, this doesn't work in isolation. If pupils have a worse start in the education system, they have worse outcomes at the end and that has a knock on effect to their health in later life.

The points you raised about the virus were fair enough, but harming the life chances of millions of pupils to avoid the chance of a 100 or so of them catching the virus would be doing more harm than good.

It’s certainly valid that the education and subsequent effect on children should be front and centre of the decision making. The studies you allude to won’t have considered this situation or anything like it, not just in scale but in the context of the complexity of the overall problem that society as a whole faces, happy to be proved wrong. We’re not taking about 100 or so children catching it, we’re talking 100,000’s infected and potentially, the loss of what little control we now have.

Do you have any relevant science for that? Secret or not.



We know those infected by the virus can double every 3 days in a population, and a lot of children have minor or no symptoms.  That seems a recipe for a quick spread that isn't noticed quicklyenough.  I would be more interested in the science that means 100 is more likely than 100,000.  I can see 100 getting it at my daughter's secondary school alone.  Luckily, or unluckily depending on your viewpoint, she isn't one of those going back in the first wave.

My daughter's school sent round a survey asking about our thoughts on them going back and I genuinely had no idea how to answer it.  Are you happy with your kids going back to school at some indeterminate date in the future where we have no knowledge of the general population spread at that time, and long term effects are unknown.  Both seem to be coping well enough and working hard enough right now which doesn't make it easier.  Both definitely want to go back to school.   But from experience other parents are pretty reluctant to take little Johnny out from school, and there are significant minority of people who think there isn't an issue with Covid still.   I suspect we'll have a few months to consider it with my eldest at least.

Looks like there is an uphill battle for the Government right now.  https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/19/only-5-of-teachers-think-it-safe-to-reopen-english-schools-poll-shows

 

I don’t think anyone actually suggested there would only be 100. My point was that to bandy suggestions that there could be hundreds of thousands was spurious.

This is an odd one to pick up on. Which of these do you think is most likely? (new infections as a result of partially reopening schools)

a) hundreds
b) thousands
c) tens of thousands
d) hundreds of thousands
e) millions

We’ll do some more maths in the morning.

My reckoning, most likely to least likely, would be: d, c, e, b, a. More than happy to go through the maths if you’d like?
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« Reply #2344 on: May 20, 2020, 11:11:10 AM »

How long as a society can we wait for a vaccine?

If a totally successful vaccine does not inoculate the entire population of the the world by the end of 2021 would we still be in lockdown by Christmas 2021, not having met grandparents in nearly 2 years?

If a vaccine is produced but it only knocks 50% off the death rate and has side effects which harm 0.1% of young people, should it be used?

Will any vaccine be compulsory?

If Trump announces a successful vaccine in October, 2 weeks before the US election, do we believe him?

We should proceed from right now as if one is never found. Plan to have as much risk as possible eliminated (including genuine track and trace capability even if it takes 50,000 people) and then have everything open by something like end of June. Let adult individuals decide the level of risk they are prepared to take in terms of visiting the disease on their weak and elderly friends and relatives. Have a clear testing capability for anyone entering a care home or hospital.

It's taking a long time to get deaths and new infections down to really low numbers so track and trace works - we can expect that this will happen in the next 3-4 weeks but from then, a very complex issue should should be easy in the sense that not moving forward is not an option.  Government and businesses only need continue to do real things that reduce risk as far as possible and let the rest of us make our own choices.


Can we? The incompetence shown so far wouldn't fill me with hope.
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« Reply #2345 on: May 20, 2020, 11:15:59 AM »

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1263041191882428416
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« Reply #2346 on: May 20, 2020, 11:37:57 AM »

How long as a society can we wait for a vaccine?

If a totally successful vaccine does not inoculate the entire population of the the world by the end of 2021 would we still be in lockdown by Christmas 2021, not having met grandparents in nearly 2 years?

If a vaccine is produced but it only knocks 50% off the death rate and has side effects which harm 0.1% of young people, should it be used?

Will any vaccine be compulsory?

If Trump announces a successful vaccine in October, 2 weeks before the US election, do we believe him?

We should proceed from right now as if one is never found. Plan to have as much risk as possible eliminated (including genuine track and trace capability even if it takes 50,000 people) and then have everything open by something like end of June. Let adult individuals decide the level of risk they are prepared to take in terms of visiting the disease on their weak and elderly friends and relatives. Have a clear testing capability for anyone entering a care home or hospital.

It's taking a long time to get deaths and new infections down to really low numbers so track and trace works - we can expect that this will happen in the next 3-4 weeks but from then, a very complex issue should should be easy in the sense that not moving forward is not an option.  Government and businesses only need continue to do real things that reduce risk as far as possible and let the rest of us make our own choices.


Can we? The incompetence shown so far wouldn't fill me with hope.

Depends on perspective I guess. I think it's likely but obvs dont know for sure and, again, from a personal perspective, it doesn't change the construct much.
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #2347 on: May 20, 2020, 03:59:02 PM »


Italy still an unknown but increasingly high levels of confidence that the U.K. will be clear of the field in this metric:

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1263035490200158209?s=21

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« Reply #2348 on: May 20, 2020, 08:03:25 PM »

Must be some fun times looking for a toilet in North Devon.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-52742519

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« Reply #2349 on: May 20, 2020, 08:13:29 PM »

I personally think it's time to let the majority back to work and play.

Anyone in a low risk group can go back to work and get the economy moving again meaning the higher risk group can maybe have their furlough pay extended long enough to get through this.

I'd be more than happy taking my chances. At the same time I know of people who wouldn't and with very good reason. Why not let me go back to work so I can generate some tax to help others?

I understand that there would still be some hospitalised from my 'low risk' group but it won't be enough to cripple the NHS.

Keep the vulnerable at home fully supported with furlough or whatever support is needed and let the fit go to work and support them.

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« Reply #2350 on: May 20, 2020, 08:30:11 PM »

How long as a society can we wait for a vaccine?

If a totally successful vaccine does not inoculate the entire population of the the world by the end of 2021 would we still be in lockdown by Christmas 2021, not having met grandparents in nearly 2 years?

If a vaccine is produced but it only knocks 50% off the death rate and has side effects which harm 0.1% of young people, should it be used?

Will any vaccine be compulsory?

If Trump announces a successful vaccine in October, 2 weeks before the US election, do we believe him?



Mixed results from the "early bird" Oxford vaccine trials......potentially to be available for some in the UK this Autumn.

Doesn't stop the spread in monkeys,but looks like it decreases the severity of it . More investigation needed.

Not the Gold Standard we need, but depending on the decrease of severity, might be enough to downgrade Covid  and allow us back to some normality whilst waiting for something better?
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« Reply #2351 on: May 20, 2020, 08:51:44 PM »

In the meantime, let’s laugh at stuff because the alternative is madness.

Charlie Brooker is a genius

Charlie Brooker's Antiviral Wipe: www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000j4bl via @bbciplayer

I was actually pretty disappointed with it, despite being a huge Brooker fan.

Cunk and Shitpeas was the only LOL moments for me.
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« Reply #2352 on: May 21, 2020, 02:18:20 AM »

https://twitter.com/meggiefoster/status/1262669850171920385

Twitter is com sometimes.
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« Reply #2353 on: May 21, 2020, 08:01:40 AM »

I personally think it's time to let the majority back to work and play.

Anyone in a low risk group can go back to work and get the economy moving again meaning the higher risk group can maybe have their furlough pay extended long enough to get through this.

I'd be more than happy taking my chances. At the same time I know of people who wouldn't and with very good reason. Why not let me go back to work so I can generate some tax to help others?

I understand that there would still be some hospitalised from my 'low risk' group but it won't be enough to cripple the NHS.

Keep the vulnerable at home fully supported with furlough or whatever support is needed and let the fit go to work and support them.



What do you do with people who are low risk, but live with partners/family who are higher risk? Do they stay at home or go to work in your model?
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« Reply #2354 on: May 21, 2020, 08:32:11 AM »


A good collation of data on seroprevalence, plenty of serious expertise in the thread.

https://twitter.com/k_g_andersen/status/1263246859054641152?s=21
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