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Author Topic: COVID19  (Read 353784 times)
Doobs
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« Reply #2625 on: May 28, 2020, 10:09:01 PM »

Have they revised the estimate of R down.  Last I heard was officially 0.7 to 1 and the modellers plucked an addition of 0.3 for the modest school reopening.  I know others have said 0.6 to 0.8 for outside London, but this was before the recent loosening and all the shop reopening.  Feels like they are going too far, but hope it works out well.   Shame if they have done all this so we forget about Cummings.  Given his actions seem to have single handidly changed the child care rules and led to a fair few people planning to get their revenge on Cummings by going out and getting Covid, how much do we think his trip is indirectly adding to R?

I guess it is just a local thing, but on our town facebook we are getting warnings from the local hospital/council that our local cases are on a plateau so we need "stay alert" (they really said that).  Also on my facebook am getting the BBQ party messages from the locals.

Guess we want to get out and about now while we can, because I don't think this ends well round here.
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« Reply #2626 on: May 29, 2020, 07:23:33 AM »

There has been a lot of doubt cast on Covid-19 data coming from China, but if this article is an accurate reflection of measures versus incidence then there must be a chance that their numbers are in the right area?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8365475/Chinese-city-2-8million-braces-second-wave-coronavirus-cases-mysterious-source.html?ito=push-notification&ci=16606&si=1382507
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TightEnd
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« Reply #2627 on: May 29, 2020, 02:32:37 PM »

Perhaps our Monkey overlords have a plan?

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-monkeys-escape-with-covid-19-samples-after-attacking-lab-assistant-11996752
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Marky147
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« Reply #2628 on: May 29, 2020, 03:43:34 PM »


Cheesy
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Pokerpops
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« Reply #2629 on: May 29, 2020, 04:29:54 PM »

There has been a lot of doubt cast on Covid-19 data coming from China, but if this article is an accurate reflection of measures versus incidence then there must be a chance that their numbers are in the right area?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8365475/Chinese-city-2-8million-braces-second-wave-coronavirus-cases-mysterious-source.html?ito=push-notification&ci=16606&si=1382507


Why would the Mail have any idea of the statistics for China?

Haven’t clicked the link (not visiting the RedTop websites is a matter of principle for me).
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #2630 on: May 29, 2020, 04:43:31 PM »

There has been a lot of doubt cast on Covid-19 data coming from China, but if this article is an accurate reflection of measures versus incidence then there must be a chance that their numbers are in the right area?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8365475/Chinese-city-2-8million-braces-second-wave-coronavirus-cases-mysterious-source.html?ito=push-notification&ci=16606&si=1382507


Why would the Mail have any idea of the statistics for China?

Haven’t clicked the link (not visiting the RedTop websites is a matter of principle for me).

I nearly clicked it earlier, staying strong though.

I don’t think there was a credible argument for doubting the Chinese numbers, after they made the backdated adjustment. The shape of their curve looks legit when compared all other nations that imposed strict lockdowns.
« Last Edit: May 29, 2020, 04:47:11 PM by kukushkin88 » Logged
jakally
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« Reply #2631 on: May 29, 2020, 06:12:13 PM »

There has been a lot of doubt cast on Covid-19 data coming from China, but if this article is an accurate reflection of measures versus incidence then there must be a chance that their numbers are in the right area?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8365475/Chinese-city-2-8million-braces-second-wave-coronavirus-cases-mysterious-source.html?ito=push-notification&ci=16606&si=1382507


Why would the Mail have any idea of the statistics for China?

Haven’t clicked the link (not visiting the RedTop websites is a matter of principle for me).

Go on , have a look. I won’t tell anyone.
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« Reply #2632 on: May 29, 2020, 06:48:28 PM »

There has been a lot of doubt cast on Covid-19 data coming from China, but if this article is an accurate reflection of measures versus incidence then there must be a chance that their numbers are in the right area?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8365475/Chinese-city-2-8million-braces-second-wave-coronavirus-cases-mysterious-source.html?ito=push-notification&ci=16606&si=1382507


Why would the Mail have any idea of the statistics for China?

Haven’t clicked the link (not visiting the RedTop websites is a matter of principle for me).

I nearly clicked it earlier, staying strong though.

I don’t think there was a credible argument for doubting the Chinese numbers, after they made the backdated adjustment. The shape of their curve looks legit when compared all other nations that imposed strict lockdowns.

See, we do have some areas of agreement.
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« Reply #2633 on: May 29, 2020, 07:59:42 PM »

Have they revised the estimate of R down.  Last I heard was officially 0.7 to 1 and the modellers plucked an addition of 0.3 for the modest school reopening.  I know others have said 0.6 to 0.8 for outside London, but this was before the recent loosening and all the shop reopening.  Feels like they are going too far, but hope it works out well.   Shame if they have done all this so we forget about Cummings.  Given his actions seem to have single handidly changed the child care rules and led to a fair few people planning to get their revenge on Cummings by going out and getting Covid, how much do we think his trip is indirectly adding to R?

I guess it is just a local thing, but on our town facebook we are getting warnings from the local hospital/council that our local cases are on a plateau so we need "stay alert" (they really said that).  Also on my facebook am getting the BBQ party messages from the locals.

Guess we want to get out and about now while we can, because I don't think this ends well round here.


The relaxing of lockdown looks too early from my experience today.

Went to the park for 2 hours this afternoon. Large groups of young people where social distancing just doesn’t exist.

Driven past the same park tonight and it’s rammed with groups.

If people observed the 2 metre rule it might work but that is just being widely ignored.

We should have waited longer.
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #2634 on: May 29, 2020, 09:13:47 PM »


It would be interesting if anyone was able to provide evidence in support of the ‘they (U.K gov) did their best on what was known at the time and were just unlucky’ narrative that seems to be a popular view in the thread.

https://twitter.com/devisridhar/status/1266423527739215874?s=21

This lady has good credentials to make a judgement.
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #2635 on: May 29, 2020, 09:25:59 PM »


Tons of interesting stuff on this guys feed:

https://twitter.com/ballouxfrancois/status/1266265084143087628?s=21

I haven’t done full due diligence on who he is, he seems legit though.
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Jon MW
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« Reply #2636 on: May 29, 2020, 09:44:55 PM »


It would be interesting if anyone was able to provide evidence in support of the ‘they (U.K gov) did their best on what was known at the time and were just unlucky’ narrative that seems to be a popular view in the thread.

https://twitter.com/devisridhar/status/1266423527739215874?s=21

This lady has good credentials to make a judgement.

Do you mean like,

"& oh wow- some of the conclusions they reached were way off. 8th SAGE meeting: 'When there is sustained transmission in the UK, contact tracing will no longer be useful."

When there is sustained transmission in the UK - why do you think contact tracing would be useful?

What, to you, is the purpose of contact tracing?


"15th SAGE meeting- March 13: 'SAGE was unanimous that measures seeking to completely suppress spread of COVID-19 will cause a second peak.' 'Community testing is ending today.' 'The science suggests household isolation...of the elderly and vulnerable should be implemented soon.'"

How is this controversial?


"16th SAGE meeting: 'The objective is to avoid critical cases exceeding NHS intensive care and other respiratory support bed capacity.'"

Again - isn't this kind of what the government was suggesting was the strategy all along? There may be a suspicion that it lead to some excess deaths because of the overwhelming focus on 'protecting the NHS' but what we had at that time was doctors in Italy basically choosing who was going to live and die because their hospitals were overwhelmed so I think that links quite clearly to making decisions based on what was known at the time.


Her tone seems to be very much "OMG" but none of what she's posting seems particularly surprising, unknown or contrary to general epidemiological knowledge.
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« Reply #2637 on: May 29, 2020, 10:03:47 PM »

One of the things that strikes me it was well-established at the time we were 2 weeks behind Italy.

So we saw it going to complete shit there, but chose not to act timely.

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kukushkin88
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« Reply #2638 on: May 29, 2020, 10:10:56 PM »

There’s been a lot of posts here that actually belong on the politics thread.

Notwithstanding that, thank you Jon MW (& Science Wife) for providing objective, non-partisan and knowledgeable commentary. I know it’s too much to ask that some of the others follow your example; I thought you should know that there’s probably quite a few of us that appreciate your input.

Too many issues in this crisis are media-led, with subsequent commentary politically motivated. As I think you’ve already said, the time for detailed analysis and maybe leveling objective criticism, will be when we’ve got Covid under control (beaten when there’s a vaccine).

Don’t get me wrong, I think there’s a lot that with hindsight could have been done differently, but I totally reject any suggestions that a government of a different hue would be in any better shape than we are now. It’s one thing making the decisions, and another to be standing in the crowd and saying “No, you’re wrong, you dipshit”.

Quite - it's nonsensical that a poster who is highly anti Conservative and uses "dipshit" to describe his political opponents then claims he is impartial about COVID.

I’ve been wondering about whether to write more about this, why not. It is perfectly possible to simultaneous slate Boris (the person) all the time and objectively assess his ability to do his job and the performance of his government.

By any measure I’m a scientist, so your criticisms/negative comparisons don’t really stack up.

1. My criticisms of the government handing of the virus have been scientific and (where it is available) evidence based.
2. I’ve made some long term forecasts, that by their nature can’t yet be evidenced, they are looking like good predictions.
3.  Anything I’ve written about application of the law, is accompanied by the interpretation of barristers. I don’t think I’ve given my opinion on it anywhere (lmk if I’m wrong), as I don’t have much knowledge of the subject.
4. When I’ve written about the economy being trashed, it’s only relaying the opinion of economists, the one exception being when I though my the OBR were under political pressure to be overly optimistic, they’ve made a correction since.
4. My criticisms of Boris (i) Incompetent (ii) Dishonest (iii) Lazy (iv) Sack of shit

(i) Incompetent: https://www.gerryhassan.com/blog/is-boris-johnson-the-most-incompetent-uk-prime-minister-in-living-memory/
(ii) Dishonest: https://boris-johnson-lies.com/ He has added greatly to these since, most memorably the NI customs bs, critical in misleading people about Brexit and before GE
(iii) Lazy: I’m not sure I can call this one for sure. Seems to me anecdotally, that he probably is, the only person I’ve ever heard talk about him working hard, is him, which is damning in itself. https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/i-was-boris-johnson-s-boss-he-is-utterly-unfit-to-be-british-prime-minister-1.3936109
(iv) Sack of shit: Fighting a temptation to argue that there are ways we can measure that show him to be a less able PM than an actual sack of shit would be. It might be a bit subjective though, so I’ll retract this one.

I can’t see a rational argument for saying my views on Boris interfere with my objective assessment of how the crisis is being handled by the government. Certainly not any more so than JMW’s loyalty to the idea they’re competent, trying their best and are just unlucky. Really not having go at Jon, we all have to work from the perspectives that we have, they shouldn’t invalidate our views.

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kukushkin88
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« Reply #2639 on: May 29, 2020, 10:14:09 PM »

One of the things that strikes me it was well-established at the time we were 2 weeks behind Italy.

So we saw it going to complete shit there, but chose not to act timely.


We were discussing exactly that, in the middle of March, in this thread.
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