COVID19

[Ledders]

I'm very critical of the governments response but I smell a big whiff of Aftertime Ansell in his comments

[arbboy]

I'm very critical of the governments response but I smell a big whiff of Aftertime Ansell in his comments

He might be talking through his wallet so to speak but its hard to argue the govt's two biggest fuck ups were the initial delay in the lockdown (cheltenham/liverpool v madrid week) and the carrnage in care homes that they didn't think through at all.    Building the hospitals now they did in days seems to appear to be too much protection of the nhs rather than worry about priivate care homes. 

[Doobs]

I'm very critical of the governments response but I smell a big whiff of Aftertime Ansell in his comments

I don't think it is.   The doubling every 3 days was known very early.  You can definitely make a case that lockdown was effectively happening before the announcements, some pubs/restaurants, many offices had effectively shut and many parents had withdrawn their kids from school before they were told to. 

So it is debatable how much extra lockdown would have happened.   So I'd say half the deaths by now is probably about right, rather than at least half.   But given we don't know the endgame, it is hard to say if they would have been saved or if we would have just delayed then until wave 2/3. 

[TightEnd]

"Support bubbles" being presented as "targeted intervention" to help the lonely in single adult households

This is because original plan to let two households of any size unite was projected to put R above one so had to be watered down, so the suggestion goes.

[Marky147]

Only trouble is with all this support bubbles and other ideas now. After the events of the last month, most people are thinking like Stormzy was in Vossi Bop.

[neeko]

This is interesting.
'Coronavirus was brought into the UK on at least 1,300 separate occasions, a major analysis of the genetics of the virus shows.
The study estimates 80% of those initial cases arrived in the country between 28 Feb and 29 March - the time the UK was debating whether to lockdown.'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52993734

Although it was really the 11th of March to the 23rd March when the debate was really happening (IIRC).

I haven't looked back at the news reports from then but I don't think there was any real option of a complete lockdown until after the 11th March.

It would be handy if they could narrow those dates down a bit more. If 600 of them came in before the 11th and a few hundred came in after the 23rd that would suggest the exact date of the lockdown made very little difference.

I think we were discussing it here from 15th to 23rd March(ish), the scientists say they were discussing it from mid Feb(ish).

https://virological.org/t/preliminary-analysis-of-sars-cov-2-importation-establishment-of-uk-transmission-lineages/507

From that paper - “The volume of inbound travel (20,000 inbound passengers per day from Spain in mid-March) shows that individual events, such as football matches, likely made a negligible contribution to the overall number of imports at that time. ”

The 3000 Liverpool v Athletico fans from Spain were only 1.5% of the travellers from Spain in the first 3 weeks in March.

I am looking forward to the newspaper headlines tomorrow.   

[Jon MW]

I'm very critical of the governments response but I smell a big whiff of Aftertime Ansell in his comments

I don't think it is.   The doubling every 3 days was known very early.  You can definitely make a case that lockdown was effectively happening before the announcements, some pubs/restaurants, many offices had effectively shut and many parents had withdrawn their kids from school before they were told to. 

So it is debatable how much extra lockdown would have happened.   So I'd say half the deaths by now is probably about right, rather than at least half.   But given we don't know the endgame, it is hard to say if they would have been saved or if we would have just delayed then until wave 2/3. 

I did some maths on the numbers.

From when the lockdown was introduced (roughly speaking) the number of infections doubled 6 times followed by roughly a 50% increase.

If you did 6 doubles plus a 50% from the 16th instead you end up with very close to 50% of the current infection number.

To be honest that's so close to what Professor Ferguson said that I think he has just calculated it mathematically on the assumption exactly the same thing would happen if you implemented it on the 16th as happened on the 23rd.

I think the big, big problem with that is the government support.

We had about 85% of people abiding by lockdown rules - if a full lockdown was introduced a week earlier, would all the same support have been in place? I could definitely see a much lower number than 85% if the furlough scheme hadn't been in place (to take one example).

[booder]

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[Karabiner]

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I 

[kukushkin88]

Good morning all

The Telegraph is late to the ‘Dipshit Double’ conversation:
(I want to say ‘better late than never’ but that saying doesn’t do well in a pandemic)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/06/12/britain-ship-fools-heading-rocks/

[jakally]

A good news story from the difficult environment of care homes (I am sure there are many others that have taken a similar strategy).

Concerning that the care home guy mentions 18th March & Easter (2nd week April) as times he made key decisions but seems to say that there was no official guidance to inform this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uvWQZxADiCI&feature=push-sd&attr_tag=gqaOpt8XW3LHAXCq%3A6

[nirvana]

Douglas carswell, such a hero. I'd give it a few more months than him but eventually we'll wonder wtf we did

https://twitter.com/DouglasCarswell/status/1273740991720284160?s=19

[kukushkin88]

Douglas carswell, such a hero. I'd give it a few more months than him but eventually we'll wonder wtf we did

https://twitter.com/DouglasCarswell/status/1273740991720284160?s=19

He and Daniel Hannan really do live in a weird fantasy. Why would anyone want to depart from the view that a very late and very lite lockdown has  delivered a worst of all worlds outcome?

[nirvana]

Douglas carswell, such a hero. I'd give it a few more months than him but eventually we'll wonder wtf we did

https://twitter.com/DouglasCarswell/status/1273740991720284160?s=19

He and Daniel Hannan really do live in a weird fantasy. Why would anyone want to depart from the view that a very late and very lite lockdown has  delivered a worst of all worlds outcome?

Confirmed, Hannan also a hero

[The Camel]

Douglas carswell, such a hero. I'd give it a few more months than him but eventually we'll wonder wtf we did

https://twitter.com/DouglasCarswell/status/1273740991720284160?s=19

Meanwhile the death toll will have inched ever nearer 100,000.