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Marky147
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« Reply #2970 on: September 18, 2020, 08:47:20 AM »

I only wear them when I go to the hospital, as that's the only place I go Cheesy

i've been wearing them in Turkey when moving around the hotel as they're required in common spaces indoors, and in taxis etc.

If I had been wearing one at the hospital, and was driving to the supermarket from there, I wouldn't take it off, as it's pointless removing/replacing it unnecessarily.

Glenn's account been taken over by one of the maga groovy gang lol.

Haha. Definitely of that tendency. Been on holiday in the UK this week and although it's small numbers I'm always surprised when people wear masks outdoors. No problem making others feel better by wearing one indoors but the nonsense of pub/ restuarant is OK and supermarket is scary seems silly. Logically pubs restaurants should remain closed but I suppose there's a good argument along the lines that you use mitigations in the max no of places even if that can't include pubs etc

If I was going in/out of places, I'd just keep it on, so I don't have to keep pissing about.

You were all about just getting on as best they can, so while not wearing them inside when inside is the riskiest place, it would appear. They're doing their best to distance people, only groups at tables and I presume table service so ppl don't clog up at the bar etc.

I'd say that people and businesses are doing the best they can with what has now become quite embarrassing. I can understand them floundering some early, as we all didn't have a clue what we were doing.

Now it's just one knee jerk after another, and whilst I hate the mask, I'm happy to wear them where required, and not into giving staff at supermarkets aggravation by not wearing one and demanding the manager when they refuse to serve me, like one of my mates  Roll Eyes
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« Reply #2971 on: September 18, 2020, 11:40:02 AM »

Had half an hour at Grosvenor Nottingham last night

They seemed to have made a good effort, door man ensuring masks worn on entry.

There was a cash game running but I was just there for a blackjack fix.

Seemed acceptable to take your mask off once sat at the table, perspex partitions weren't too much of a hindrance.

Spotted a poor bloke with a table converted into a chip sanitising station.

Scotch still tasted the same

All in all they seemed to be doing a pretty good job, but then I am quite happy with the idea that we need to get back to normal as much as we need to control the infection rate.


Hi Stu.

I don't mean to be pedantic but how can we get back to normal if people are dying all over the place?

Which ever way I phrase that it seems argumentative and abrasive. I don't mean it to be, it's a genuine question.

x

Hi Tom

No problem at all, I don't see it as either argumentative or abrasive. I think everyone's view point on this situation differs wildly so always interesting to discuss.

For me it's about balance, I might of worded my original post badly, I didn't mean everything should go completely back to normal.

So firstly as Dean said, people are no longer dying all over the place, there seems to be good evidence from the rest of the EU that the death rate for a second wave isn't going to match that of the first wave. Fingers crossed.

Secondly, I don't think the Government is doing a very good job on this, and I don't think it is at all clear which measures work and which don't.

The original lock down was always stated as ensuring that the NHS were not overwhelmed, currently they aren't, nor does it appear that they will be.

The lockdown has done untold damage on people's financial and mental health so there has to be a balance between getting things back to normal as far as reasonably possible and protecting both the NHS and people who are vulnerable.  

When put like that would you agree there has to be balance and maybe we're just slightly on different sides of the scale, or do you think restrictions should be harsher across the board whatever the cost is to economy etc?







No, I agree with you when you put it like that.

For clarity, I don't think restrictions should be harsher, I just think they should make more sense and be enforced better.

Why are we advised to wear a mask but obviously young healthy people allowed to wander around supermarkets wearing their mask on their neck instead of their face?

Why don't staff have to wear a mask at all?

Why is there a rule of 6 except for pubs, restaurants, etc? I simply don't understand the rule of 6. Two families of 4 can't stop in the street to pass the time of day but two families of 3 can, WTF is the sense in that?

Why do I see large numbers of 14-15yo kids leaving school and walking through the middle of the town en masse?

The supermarkets do not want to enforce the mask rule, it seems very mixed area to area how many people abide by the rules, and even how many think having their nose out is okay etc
Most supermarkets seem to be making a reasonable effort, but maybe they see additional security and confrontation as a step to far.

I don't really understand why the staff don't to be honest. I would wear one if I worked in a supermarket pre covid!

The rule of 6 has been rubbished across the board, but they obviously had to choose A number didn't they.

The last question just comes back to who is meant to enforce it, same as the large groups of students who were out on the lash in Nottingham town on Wednesday night.

Again though it comes back to balance, we have to hope that the more sensible side of the see saw out weighs those who just don't care or don't believe it is real.
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« Reply #2972 on: September 18, 2020, 01:58:54 PM »

Where are these areas where people aren't wearing masks in the supermarket?  Where I live now pretty much everyone wears one; it was the same when I went up North to see my mum in a nice Northern Town in the summer; and it was the same when we went to Devon for a week. 

Stratford Westfield is somewhere I wouldn't want to go to again whilst the pandemic is ongoing.  The amount of big groups, chin masks and people who just weren't bothering was pretty shocking.

Is this just a bit of peer pressure?  If you live in am area where masking up is normal, pretty much everyone just masks up.  If you live in an area where lots don't, you are less inclined to do so.

Might be just biassed, but how come the medically exempt seem to be the exact same people who seem to gravitate towards me in the shops?  Always them that have a cough too... You'd think if you really couldn't wear a mask you'd be more cautious on the distancing?

I have worn a mask outside on a couple of occasions, but each time has been where people behind weren't keeping their distance in queues.  Can't say I have ever have in a car though think it is probably reasonable at drive throughs etc. 



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« Reply #2973 on: September 18, 2020, 02:30:59 PM »

The R number has increased from between 1.0 and 1.2 to between 1.1 and 1.4.

showing there is "widespread growth of the epidemic across the country".

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-r-number-increases-to-between-1-1-and-1-4-12075062

trying regional lockdowns but i suspect we are on course for another full national to check this
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« Reply #2974 on: September 18, 2020, 02:47:54 PM »

The R number has increased from between 1.0 and 1.2 to between 1.1 and 1.4.

showing there is "widespread growth of the epidemic across the country".

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-r-number-increases-to-between-1-1-and-1-4-12075062

trying regional lockdowns but i suspect we are on course for another full national to check this

https://www.covid-arg.com/bulletins

They seem pretty slow on this, the latest actuaries response group update has R at 1.6, and the number of cases has been growing since the pubs opened.  I am not sure why people in Government are suddenly surprised.  The only thing keeping the rise in cases down is the limit on the testing capacity, though hospital admissions and deaths will surely follow.  They need to stop bullshitting too, people didn't suddenly get more cautious a couple of weeks ago, it is vlear that the demand is increasing because Covid is increasing again.

There is some good news though, as the average age of the population affected is younger this time round, and treatments are going to be better too. 

I don't know about lockdown, but they need to shut the inside areas in pubs.  Some places have done really well with tables in the car park etc, but it is definitely a mixed bag. 

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« Reply #2975 on: September 18, 2020, 03:02:09 PM »

will admissions and deaths rise if the its mainly the young and healthy contracting ? as we have seen despite rising numbers and society open for a number of months deaths are incredibly low.

This going round in circles cannot go on..if people arnt dying why lock down fully... if the important numbers of admissions and deaths were rising sharply and not the meaningless number of infections i could understand this

if you want to lock a country down for a disease that isnt killing people and not overloading the NHS then its just the same as any othe virus you can catch. We gonna hide under the bed at every little thing and let the world go to shit.

More deaths will be attributed to suicide and mental health issues than covid could ever achieve.
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« Reply #2976 on: September 18, 2020, 03:53:06 PM »

will admissions and deaths rise if the its mainly the young and healthy contracting ? as we have seen despite rising numbers and society open for a number of months deaths are incredibly low.

This going round in circles cannot go on..if people arnt dying why lock down fully... if the important numbers of admissions and deaths were rising sharply and not the meaningless number of infections i could understand this

if you want to lock a country down for a disease that isnt killing people and not overloading the NHS then its just the same as any othe virus you can catch. We gonna hide under the bed at every little thing and let the world go to shit.

More deaths will be attributed to suicide and mental health issues than covid could ever achieve.

+1

Whhy don't pubs/clubs and bars just get told they can onnly have 10% of capacity in them.   Most pubs i go into during the day time hours midweek are empty and very safe.  If they can't operate so quiet then they have to close.   Most pubs operate 90% of their opening hours on tiny max % customers
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« Reply #2977 on: September 18, 2020, 04:35:04 PM »

will admissions and deaths rise if the its mainly the young and healthy contracting ? as we have seen despite rising numbers and society open for a number of months deaths are incredibly low.

This going round in circles cannot go on..if people arnt dying why lock down fully... if the important numbers of admissions and deaths were rising sharply and not the meaningless number of infections i could understand this

if you want to lock a country down for a disease that isnt killing people and not overloading the NHS then its just the same as any othe virus you can catch. We gonna hide under the bed at every little thing and let the world go to shit.

More deaths will be attributed to suicide and mental health issues than covid could ever achieve.

Admissions are rising sharply, you can see it in the link I posted; in a couple of weeks deaths will rise sharply.  This will happne even if they some up with a measure that naturally understates them. 

If we could just stick to 10 deaths a day, 5000 a year, that would be an ok trade off for a resonably functioning economy, but that wasn't going to happen on the measures we had in place.

The disease is increasing exponentially again, albeit at a slower pace than it did orginally.  So 200 admissions this week, is 400 next week and 800 the week after.   Then before we know it we are up to 100 deaths a day and so on.  It doesn't really matter if 10 is the base point, if it doubles every week or so.  Again we can see what is happening in France and Spain, so saying lets just crack on isn't the best strategy.

So the Government have to do something?  It would be bad strat to let it blow through the population now if you weren't prepared to do it when the other deaths were naturally lower (in the summer), and surely yoyu hold out now when any vaccine is likely to be nearer?  I don't like the Government, but I don't think they have much choice here.

And it is just bullshit on the suicide thing, there were 50,000 deaths in a few months from covid, which is about 8x the number of suicides each year.  And suicides happen for a number of reasons, sure there are likely to be more because of lockdown, but not nearly on the scale of the Covid deaths we would have had without lockdown.   There are trade offs with all these difficult decisions, but be honest on the numbers, and don't just repeat something somebody has just made up.
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« Reply #2978 on: September 18, 2020, 04:53:28 PM »

will admissions and deaths rise if the its mainly the young and healthy contracting ? as we have seen despite rising numbers and society open for a number of months deaths are incredibly low.

This going round in circles cannot go on..if people arnt dying why lock down fully... if the important numbers of admissions and deaths were rising sharply and not the meaningless number of infections i could understand this

if you want to lock a country down for a disease that isnt killing people and not overloading the NHS then its just the same as any othe virus you can catch. We gonna hide under the bed at every little thing and let the world go to shit.

More deaths will be attributed to suicide and mental health issues than covid could ever achieve.

Admissions are rising sharply, you can see it in the link I posted; in a couple of weeks deaths will rise sharply.  This will happne even if they some up with a measure that naturally understates them. 

If we could just stick to 10 deaths a day, 5000 a year, that would be an ok trade off for a resonably functioning economy, but that wasn't going to happen on the measures we had in place.

The disease is increasing exponentially again, albeit at a slower pace than it did orginally.  So 200 admissions this week, is 400 next week and 800 the week after.   Then before we know it we are up to 100 deaths a day and so on.  It doesn't really matter if 10 is the base point, if it doubles every week or so.  Again we can see what is happening in France and Spain, so saying lets just crack on isn't the best strategy.

So the Government have to do something?  It would be bad strat to let it blow through the population now if you weren't prepared to do it when the other deaths were naturally lower (in the summer), and surely yoyu hold out now when any vaccine is likely to be nearer?  I don't like the Government, but I don't think they have much choice here.

And it is just bullshit on the suicide thing, there were 50,000 deaths in a few months from covid, which is about 8x the number of suicides each year.  And suicides happen for a number of reasons, sure there are likely to be more because of lockdown, but not nearly on the scale of the Covid deaths we would have had without lockdown.   There are trade offs with all these difficult decisions, but be honest on the numbers, and don't just repeat something somebody has just made up.

Deaths have risen in both France and Spain but it has not been a sharp rise.
They are both over their March/April infection rates but are seeing no where near the same level of deaths.

Why would we expect to here?
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« Reply #2979 on: September 18, 2020, 05:08:00 PM »

will admissions and deaths rise if the its mainly the young and healthy contracting ? as we have seen despite rising numbers and society open for a number of months deaths are incredibly low.

This going round in circles cannot go on..if people arnt dying why lock down fully... if the important numbers of admissions and deaths were rising sharply and not the meaningless number of infections i could understand this

if you want to lock a country down for a disease that isnt killing people and not overloading the NHS then its just the same as any othe virus you can catch. We gonna hide under the bed at every little thing and let the world go to shit.

More deaths will be attributed to suicide and mental health issues than covid could ever achieve.

Admissions are rising sharply, you can see it in the link I posted; in a couple of weeks deaths will rise sharply.  This will happne even if they some up with a measure that naturally understates them. 

If we could just stick to 10 deaths a day, 5000 a year, that would be an ok trade off for a resonably functioning economy, but that wasn't going to happen on the measures we had in place.

The disease is increasing exponentially again, albeit at a slower pace than it did orginally.  So 200 admissions this week, is 400 next week and 800 the week after.   Then before we know it we are up to 100 deaths a day and so on.  It doesn't really matter if 10 is the base point, if it doubles every week or so.  Again we can see what is happening in France and Spain, so saying lets just crack on isn't the best strategy.

So the Government have to do something?  It would be bad strat to let it blow through the population now if you weren't prepared to do it when the other deaths were naturally lower (in the summer), and surely yoyu hold out now when any vaccine is likely to be nearer?  I don't like the Government, but I don't think they have much choice here.

And it is just bullshit on the suicide thing, there were 50,000 deaths in a few months from covid, which is about 8x the number of suicides each year.  And suicides happen for a number of reasons, sure there are likely to be more because of lockdown, but not nearly on the scale of the Covid deaths we would have had without lockdown.   There are trade offs with all these difficult decisions, but be honest on the numbers, and don't just repeat something somebody has just made up.

What is bullshit is the 50 k number..we already know 20K were care home deaths where they could literally of died of the slightest thing let alone covid..govt has already admitted at least 5k are misreported on the 30 day rule so we know thats conservative. Real number could be as low as 20k

The 5k a year deaths for covid would be ok for a functioning society is a laughable statement when we average 15k a year from the common flu alone.

I know a couple of front liners and their opinion is that a lot of the people that would die or were susceptible to covid have already died and thats the reason for the very low death rate. The real facts are that sub 60 deaths are very small.. the facts are if u r even remotely healthy you will be fine.. the fact is  that the mortality rate is incredibly tiny.

Im sorry basic common sense tells you the way we are at the moment and for the last four months would mean hundreds of thousands of us should have been infected which means there should have been thousands of deaths.. not even close

Stop treating it like the bubonic plague and look at in context..even to this date less than half a per cent of the entire country has been affected but you still want to continue with your the sky is falling rhetoric.

The bottom line is we cannot carry on like this.. simple as that whatever statistics you want to draw on



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« Reply #2980 on: September 18, 2020, 05:27:38 PM »

how many peeople in the uk have been tested?  2m people could easily be roaming around with the virus and 'passing' it to other people who already have it and neitther of them have any reason to be tested.   Millions of people could have it and be paassing it to other peoople who have it and no one is dying.  My mother had it the week after my 92 year old gran died from it.  My mum is 70 and she didn't even go to hospital with it.
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« Reply #2981 on: September 18, 2020, 06:48:39 PM »

will admissions and deaths rise if the its mainly the young and healthy contracting ? as we have seen despite rising numbers and society open for a number of months deaths are incredibly low.

This going round in circles cannot go on..if people arnt dying why lock down fully... if the important numbers of admissions and deaths were rising sharply and not the meaningless number of infections i could understand this

if you want to lock a country down for a disease that isnt killing people and not overloading the NHS then its just the same as any othe virus you can catch. We gonna hide under the bed at every little thing and let the world go to shit.

More deaths will be attributed to suicide and mental health issues than covid could ever achieve.

Admissions are rising sharply, you can see it in the link I posted; in a couple of weeks deaths will rise sharply.  This will happne even if they some up with a measure that naturally understates them. 

If we could just stick to 10 deaths a day, 5000 a year, that would be an ok trade off for a resonably functioning economy, but that wasn't going to happen on the measures we had in place.

The disease is increasing exponentially again, albeit at a slower pace than it did orginally.  So 200 admissions this week, is 400 next week and 800 the week after.   Then before we know it we are up to 100 deaths a day and so on.  It doesn't really matter if 10 is the base point, if it doubles every week or so.  Again we can see what is happening in France and Spain, so saying lets just crack on isn't the best strategy.

So the Government have to do something?  It would be bad strat to let it blow through the population now if you weren't prepared to do it when the other deaths were naturally lower (in the summer), and surely yoyu hold out now when any vaccine is likely to be nearer?  I don't like the Government, but I don't think they have much choice here.

And it is just bullshit on the suicide thing, there were 50,000 deaths in a few months from covid, which is about 8x the number of suicides each year.  And suicides happen for a number of reasons, sure there are likely to be more because of lockdown, but not nearly on the scale of the Covid deaths we would have had without lockdown.   There are trade offs with all these difficult decisions, but be honest on the numbers, and don't just repeat something somebody has just made up.

Deaths have risen in both France and Spain but it has not been a sharp rise.
They are both over their March/April infection rates but are seeing no where near the same level of deaths.

Why would we expect to here?

Because there is a lag.  So cases rise, then admissions rise, then deaths rise.   You can't wait for deaths to get severe before bringing in measures as there is going to be 8x as many by the time your measures come in to effect. 

There shouldn't be as many deaths this time as we know what to do, a younger population is affected, treatments are better and there are more beds.   
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« Reply #2982 on: September 18, 2020, 08:19:58 PM »

will admissions and deaths rise if the its mainly the young and healthy contracting ? as we have seen despite rising numbers and society open for a number of months deaths are incredibly low.

This going round in circles cannot go on..if people arnt dying why lock down fully... if the important numbers of admissions and deaths were rising sharply and not the meaningless number of infections i could understand this

if you want to lock a country down for a disease that isnt killing people and not overloading the NHS then its just the same as any othe virus you can catch. We gonna hide under the bed at every little thing and let the world go to shit.

More deaths will be attributed to suicide and mental health issues than covid could ever achieve.

Admissions are rising sharply, you can see it in the link I posted; in a couple of weeks deaths will rise sharply.  This will happne even if they some up with a measure that naturally understates them. 

If we could just stick to 10 deaths a day, 5000 a year, that would be an ok trade off for a resonably functioning economy, but that wasn't going to happen on the measures we had in place.

The disease is increasing exponentially again, albeit at a slower pace than it did orginally.  So 200 admissions this week, is 400 next week and 800 the week after.   Then before we know it we are up to 100 deaths a day and so on.  It doesn't really matter if 10 is the base point, if it doubles every week or so.  Again we can see what is happening in France and Spain, so saying lets just crack on isn't the best strategy.

So the Government have to do something?  It would be bad strat to let it blow through the population now if you weren't prepared to do it when the other deaths were naturally lower (in the summer), and surely yoyu hold out now when any vaccine is likely to be nearer?  I don't like the Government, but I don't think they have much choice here.

And it is just bullshit on the suicide thing, there were 50,000 deaths in a few months from covid, which is about 8x the number of suicides each year.  And suicides happen for a number of reasons, sure there are likely to be more because of lockdown, but not nearly on the scale of the Covid deaths we would have had without lockdown.   There are trade offs with all these difficult decisions, but be honest on the numbers, and don't just repeat something somebody has just made up.

Deaths have risen in both France and Spain but it has not been a sharp rise.
They are both over their March/April infection rates but are seeing no where near the same level of deaths.

Why would we expect to here?

Because there is a lag.  So cases rise, then admissions rise, then deaths rise.   You can't wait for deaths to get severe before bringing in measures as there is going to be 8x as many by the time your measures come in to effect. 

There shouldn't be as many deaths this time as we know what to do, a younger population is affected, treatments are better and there are more beds.   


So it the lag going to look different this time because we didn't measure the number of cases well the first time?

I thought the lag was 1 week for infections, 3 weeks for hospitals and 5 weeks for deaths? Very roughly of course.

France are 6 weeks in with no real rise in deaths to match the rise in infections, and Spain are 8 weeks in only a very slight rise in deaths?
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« Reply #2983 on: September 18, 2020, 08:41:44 PM »

will admissions and deaths rise if the its mainly the young and healthy contracting ? as we have seen despite rising numbers and society open for a number of months deaths are incredibly low.

This going round in circles cannot go on..if people arnt dying why lock down fully... if the important numbers of admissions and deaths were rising sharply and not the meaningless number of infections i could understand this

if you want to lock a country down for a disease that isnt killing people and not overloading the NHS then its just the same as any othe virus you can catch. We gonna hide under the bed at every little thing and let the world go to shit.

More deaths will be attributed to suicide and mental health issues than covid could ever achieve.

Admissions are rising sharply, you can see it in the link I posted; in a couple of weeks deaths will rise sharply.  This will happne even if they some up with a measure that naturally understates them. 

If we could just stick to 10 deaths a day, 5000 a year, that would be an ok trade off for a resonably functioning economy, but that wasn't going to happen on the measures we had in place.

The disease is increasing exponentially again, albeit at a slower pace than it did orginally.  So 200 admissions this week, is 400 next week and 800 the week after.   Then before we know it we are up to 100 deaths a day and so on.  It doesn't really matter if 10 is the base point, if it doubles every week or so.  Again we can see what is happening in France and Spain, so saying lets just crack on isn't the best strategy.

So the Government have to do something?  It would be bad strat to let it blow through the population now if you weren't prepared to do it when the other deaths were naturally lower (in the summer), and surely yoyu hold out now when any vaccine is likely to be nearer?  I don't like the Government, but I don't think they have much choice here.

And it is just bullshit on the suicide thing, there were 50,000 deaths in a few months from covid, which is about 8x the number of suicides each year.  And suicides happen for a number of reasons, sure there are likely to be more because of lockdown, but not nearly on the scale of the Covid deaths we would have had without lockdown.   There are trade offs with all these difficult decisions, but be honest on the numbers, and don't just repeat something somebody has just made up.

Deaths have risen in both France and Spain but it has not been a sharp rise.
They are both over their March/April infection rates but are seeing no where near the same level of deaths.

Why would we expect to here?

Because there is a lag.  So cases rise, then admissions rise, then deaths rise.   You can't wait for deaths to get severe before bringing in measures as there is going to be 8x as many by the time your measures come in to effect. 

There shouldn't be as many deaths this time as we know what to do, a younger population is affected, treatments are better and there are more beds.   


So it the lag going to look different this time because we didn't measure the number of cases well the first time?

I thought the lag was 1 week for infections, 3 weeks for hospitals and 5 weeks for deaths? Very roughly of course.

France are 6 weeks in with no real rise in deaths to match the rise in infections, and Spain are 8 weeks in only a very slight rise in deaths?

I was talking about the lag between infection and death, which is a bit less than 5 weeks on average.  It is going to be roughly the same as last time, though medical interventions will be better.  Maybe there will be a difference on a younger population as they should be able to fight better, but won't that just mean more survive and not they will take longer to die?  I can't be sure.
 We didn't measure cases well last time, but we knew the rough average times between infection, hospital and deaths. 

I think you are wrong on France.   They have announced 156 deaths today vs 10 or so for much of August.  13,000 cases vs 1,000 or so a few weeks ago.   

The numbers can get away pretty quickly.
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« Reply #2984 on: September 18, 2020, 11:07:16 PM »

I went for my flu jab today - a reminder for all you who have to have them to start battling to get thru on the phone to your local surgery.

Also when I got there, in a proper medical mask with a ventilator, before they unlocked the door I was told to take it off & put it away, they gave me sanitiser for my hands and a new disposable mask. They said that all reusable masks were only that if they were washed after each use and a new filter was put in.

As they didn't know if it was the first time I was using it or I had walked there picking up germs, to them it could be carrying the plague. A bit melodramatic they said, but better safe than sorry. Their procedure was the same what ever mask you had on.

Anyway - don't forget to get your flu jab - before the rush!

« Last Edit: September 18, 2020, 11:09:13 PM by Supernova » Logged

And I need you more than want you.
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