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Author Topic: COVID19  (Read 167580 times)
TightEnd
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« Reply #3165 on: October 13, 2020, 04:47:41 PM »

BREAKING: Keir Starmer is calling for a two week circuit break lockdown

eventually some clear ground with the government, right or wrong
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« Reply #3166 on: October 13, 2020, 04:50:07 PM »

BREAKING: Keir Starmer is calling for a two week circuit break lockdown

eventually some clear ground with the government, right or wrong

Well that's never going to happen now is it? Not a chance this lot to be seen following Labours lead.

His response to the new tier system in parliament was setting up for this. Far more critical and much less we support the measures.
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« Reply #3167 on: October 13, 2020, 04:50:38 PM »

I am more pre-disposed to think the scientists at least have an untainted professional view more than the politicans, especially this government of incompetents (possibly worse than incompetent too) notwithstanding the difficulty of any decisions they have to make

Meanwhile

* 143 new UK coronavirus deaths recorded - highest daily rise since early June & nearly double last Tuesday.
* 17,234 new cases reported.
* 655 new covid patients admitted, taking total to 4,367 in hospital on Sun 11th Oct.

I would have agreed back with back in April/May!
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« Reply #3168 on: October 13, 2020, 05:17:18 PM »

Really interesting stats today. Cornwall was heaving over the last few months - loads of tourism, most hospitality businesses full and covid secure, full supermarkets, shops open.

Net result of all that seems to be cases are falling.

Uni's and schools go back and naturally, cases are rising.

All schools and Unis should close and all pubs, businesses and restaurants should be open if having lower cases and fewer over 80s dying is the name of the game.

Just caught up with the thread and the reason there are no issues there is because there are no Uni's.  Pubs/restaurants have never been safer/cleaner to go until most hours of the day (outside of the student type hours).  Would it really have been that hard to close Uni's for the entire year?  most students love a 'lolgap' year anyway.  It's pretty obvious unis have caused the spike.  Nottiingham wasn't even on the radar until 60000+ students landed back in town all drinkings/shagging and, quite rightly, doing all the things students do.   Why couldn't students have been furloughed for a year by giving them a year free fees wise next year?  Most of them could stay at home with their parents rent/bill free for a year anyway.   Just seems too obvious to me.  Schools are a totally different animal to uni's.   Young kids development is way more important than discretionary 'adult' education which could easily be delayed a year.   If the students really wanted to crack on with their degree and miss out on a year of 'student lifestyle' outside of the classroom then they would have been offered online only facility with zero fees for this year and the government funded it.
« Last Edit: October 13, 2020, 05:20:29 PM by arbboy » Logged
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« Reply #3169 on: October 13, 2020, 05:43:41 PM »

Really interesting stats today. Cornwall was heaving over the last few months - loads of tourism, most hospitality businesses full and covid secure, full supermarkets, shops open.

Net result of all that seems to be cases are falling.

Uni's and schools go back and naturally, cases are rising.

All schools and Unis should close and all pubs, businesses and restaurants should be open if having lower cases and fewer over 80s dying is the name of the game.

Just caught up with the thread and the reason there are no issues there is because there are no Uni's.  Pubs/restaurants have never been safer/cleaner to go until most hours of the day (outside of the student type hours).  Would it really have been that hard to close Uni's for the entire year?  most students love a 'lolgap' year anyway.  It's pretty obvious unis have caused the spike.  Nottiingham wasn't even on the radar until 60000+ students landed back in town all drinkings/shagging and, quite rightly, doing all the things students do.   Why couldn't students have been furloughed for a year by giving them a year free fees wise next year?  Most of them could stay at home with their parents rent/bill free for a year anyway.   Just seems too obvious to me.  Schools are a totally different animal to uni's.   Young kids development is way more important than discretionary 'adult' education which could easily be delayed a year.   If the students really wanted to crack on with their degree and miss out on a year of 'student lifestyle' outside of the classroom then they would have been offered online only facility with zero fees for this year and the government funded it.
I
That is well thought through IMHO and hard to disagree with any of it. Good distinction  between schools and unis and excellent usage of lolgap.
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« Reply #3170 on: October 13, 2020, 05:51:02 PM »

odd they treble the day after announcement when these are the NHS official hospital figures for the last two weeks which were pretty steady

28-Sep-20   29-Sep-20   30-Sep-20   01-Oct-20   02-Oct-20   03-Oct-20   04-Oct-20   05-Oct-20   06-Oct-20   07-Oct-20   08-Oct-20   09-Oct-20   10-Oct-20   11-Oct-20   12-Oct-20
37   33   41   43   44   36   33   35   46   56   51   34   45   46   15



numbers are always lower on a Sunday and a Monday and higher on a Tuesday as they are reporting the previous days reports and people are not in the office to report the figures at the weekend
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« Reply #3171 on: October 13, 2020, 05:51:18 PM »

Really interesting stats today. Cornwall was heaving over the last few months - loads of tourism, most hospitality businesses full and covid secure, full supermarkets, shops open.

Net result of all that seems to be cases are falling.

Uni's and schools go back and naturally, cases are rising.

All schools and Unis should close and all pubs, businesses and restaurants should be open if having lower cases and fewer over 80s dying is the name of the game.

Just caught up with the thread and the reason there are no issues there is because there are no Uni's.  Pubs/restaurants have never been safer/cleaner to go until most hours of the day (outside of the student type hours).  Would it really have been that hard to close Uni's for the entire year?  most students love a 'lolgap' year anyway.  It's pretty obvious unis have caused the spike.  Nottiingham wasn't even on the radar until 60000+ students landed back in town all drinkings/shagging and, quite rightly, doing all the things students do.   Why couldn't students have been furloughed for a year by giving them a year free fees wise next year?  Most of them could stay at home with their parents rent/bill free for a year anyway.   Just seems too obvious to me.  Schools are a totally different animal to uni's.   Young kids development is way more important than discretionary 'adult' education which could easily be delayed a year.   If the students really wanted to crack on with their degree and miss out on a year of 'student lifestyle' outside of the classroom then they would have been offered online only facility with zero fees for this year and the government funded it.

Why repost this nonsense after it has already been discredited.  Cases increased 10 fold between the beginning of July and the beginning of September?  There hasn't really been any increase in the growth rate since then.  If anything it has slowed, hence Stuart Hopkin asking why we aren't at 50,000.

Isn't it just the lolGovernment casting round for people to blame other than themselves?   Next week they'll be back to immigrants.  And what happens when young adults who have been behaving irresponsibly go back to their home towns, do they become model citizens?   I suspect responsibile students will behave responsibly at home and irresponsible students will carry on much the same as they did in the summer and they did when they were away at Uni.  Sure they won't be in big halls, but instead they'll be mixing with their mates and going back to vulnerable old farts at home.  Swings and roundabouts and I don't think it is nearly as significant as it is made out to be.   I strongly suspect most students are responsible and we only ever see the worst excesses.  Big cities were hot beds of transmission last time and will be this time too regardless of students.

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« Reply #3172 on: October 13, 2020, 06:03:16 PM »

odd they treble the day after announcement when these are the NHS official hospital figures for the last two weeks which were pretty steady

28-Sep-20   29-Sep-20   30-Sep-20   01-Oct-20   02-Oct-20   03-Oct-20   04-Oct-20   05-Oct-20   06-Oct-20   07-Oct-20   08-Oct-20   09-Oct-20   10-Oct-20   11-Oct-20   12-Oct-20
37   33   41   43   44   36   33   35   46   56   51   34   45   46   15



numbers are always lower on a Sunday and a Monday and higher on a Tuesday as they are reporting the previous days reports and people are not in the office to report the figures at the weekend

And suddenly 143 today .. The day after  extra measures are announced .. lucky they jumped so much to help enforce the agenda...I’m way too cynical Smiley
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« Reply #3173 on: October 13, 2020, 06:04:50 PM »

Eventually, for countries like ours versus the exemplar Asian countries, it will just come down to population densities. You heard it here first
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« Reply #3174 on: October 13, 2020, 06:06:40 PM »

Really interesting stats today. Cornwall was heaving over the last few months - loads of tourism, most hospitality businesses full and covid secure, full supermarkets, shops open.

Net result of all that seems to be cases are falling.

Uni's and schools go back and naturally, cases are rising.

All schools and Unis should close and all pubs, businesses and restaurants should be open if having lower cases and fewer over 80s dying is the name of the game.

Just caught up with the thread and the reason there are no issues there is because there are no Uni's.  Pubs/restaurants have never been safer/cleaner to go until most hours of the day (outside of the student type hours).  Would it really have been that hard to close Uni's for the entire year?  most students love a 'lolgap' year anyway.  It's pretty obvious unis have caused the spike.  Nottiingham wasn't even on the radar until 60000+ students landed back in town all drinkings/shagging and, quite rightly, doing all the things students do.   Why couldn't students have been furloughed for a year by giving them a year free fees wise next year?  Most of them could stay at home with their parents rent/bill free for a year anyway.   Just seems too obvious to me.  Schools are a totally different animal to uni's.   Young kids development is way more important than discretionary 'adult' education which could easily be delayed a year.   If the students really wanted to crack on with their degree and miss out on a year of 'student lifestyle' outside of the classroom then they would have been offered online only facility with zero fees for this year and the government funded it.

Why repost this nonsense after it has already been discredited.  Cases increased 10 fold between the beginning of July and the beginning of September?  There hasn't really been any increase in the growth rate since then.  If anything it has slowed, hence Stuart Hopkin asking why we aren't at 50,000.

Isn't it just the lolGovernment casting round for people to blame other than themselves?   Next week they'll be back to immigrants.  And what happens when young adults who have been behaving irresponsibly go back to their home towns, do they become model citizens?   I suspect responsibile students will behave responsibly at home and irresponsible students will carry on much the same as they did in the summer and they did when they were away at Uni.  Sure they won't be in big halls, but instead they'll be mixing with their mates and going back to vulnerable old farts at home.  Swings and roundabouts and I don't think it is nearly as significant as it is made out to be.   I strongly suspect most students are responsible and we only ever see the worst excesses.  Big cities were hot beds of transmission last time and will be this time too regardless of students.



Extremely harsh on Arb. If unis didn't go back there would be less infections. Same argument for every form of action to restrict contact.
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« Reply #3175 on: October 13, 2020, 06:23:13 PM »

BBC 6 oclock news health editor just listed all the predictions SAGE made on reducing the R figure and the two biggest ones were getting everyone who could work from home working from home (decrease of 0.4 to the R) and having all students not at uni was 0.5 reduction.   The biggest of all.   Sage said closing pubs/restaurants/gyms etc wouldn't have anywhere near this effect.   It really isn't rocket science.   Uni students behave differently when they are together away from home than living apart from their peers with parents.   I don't think most students are responsible either.   Most know they got 3 years to do it properly and are happy to take chances/risks but probably won't be too honest about admitting doing things they shouldn't be doing.  Plus they are know they are a genuine million to die from it or enter hospital with it so quite rightly selfishly don't care.   I have been invited to several student private cash games since uni started and also 'met' 3 students from tinder since uni started.  Thin but the reality of the situation.   Online dating/shagging is booming for students with nightclubs closed.   Give it a go and see.
« Last Edit: October 13, 2020, 06:31:42 PM by arbboy » Logged
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« Reply #3176 on: October 13, 2020, 06:37:23 PM »

NEW: Two of government's scientific advisers tell the FT thousands of deaths - between 3,000 and as many as 107,000 - could be avoided by January if a circuit breaker lockdown is imposed over half term
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« Reply #3177 on: October 13, 2020, 06:44:52 PM »

NEW: Two of government's scientific advisers tell the FT thousands of deaths - between 3,000 and as many as 107,000 - could be avoided by January if a circuit breaker lockdown is imposed over half term

What price is the 107k deaths though?   1000/1?  million?    These figures mean nothing wiithout real probabilities attached to them and just create fear.   If 3000 deaths was the most likely (gross covid deaths) it might end up more than 3000 deaths being caused from knock on effects of the restrictions.  Suicide/cancer etc further down the line.  These extreme numbers banged out to create excess fear in a risk averse population generally who love DM headliine figures/numbers aren't good.

Plus it gives the Labour party/non covid believers on twitter an easy shot saying the predictions (worse case scenario like the 500k deaths originally in march) were clueless and the scientists haven't got a clue what they are doing.
« Last Edit: October 13, 2020, 06:46:38 PM by arbboy » Logged
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« Reply #3178 on: October 13, 2020, 06:57:50 PM »

3000 to 107k .. way to hedge your bets..
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« Reply #3179 on: October 13, 2020, 07:02:14 PM »

3000 to 107k .. way to hedge your bets..

It like me saying to a potential investor who asks 'how much could you win or lose tomorrow on betfair on the dogs?   Probably the two extremes are win or lose £25k.   Both are a million to happen.   80% likely on a normal day it will be between £1500 either way but that wouldn't scare people.  The goverrnment wants to control/scare people with extremes with no probability attached to them.
« Last Edit: October 13, 2020, 07:04:14 PM by arbboy » Logged
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