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Author Topic: COVID19  (Read 354063 times)
Doobs
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« Reply #3345 on: November 10, 2020, 10:25:50 AM »

I must have good taste in friends, or just nuked the whack jobs previously in the pandemic. 

Looking on the bright side, not everybody needs to take the vaccine for it to be significant.  Unfortunately, some of the idiots will take out some of the vulnerable on that antivax hill they have chosen to martyr themselves on. 

As it is, it sounds like the UK is going to get low millions doses of the vaccine this year, so there aren't going to be enough to go round, so if some are self selecting to avoid the vaccine it isn't going to really make any real difference this year.

It feels like you need a lot more doses to me, as just vaccinating the very old in year 1 might not be the best strategy.    Half the population is over 40.  A person in their 50s has a much lower mortality rate than someone in their 70s, but many more years lost if they die.  And we need to protect the really vulnerable younger people who can't have a vaccine for whatever reason.

Drawing up the vaccine priority list isn't an easy task, so I don't want to criticise too much, and hopefully they'll end up with something sensible.
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EvilPie
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« Reply #3346 on: November 10, 2020, 11:34:30 AM »

I don't class myself as a whack job but I won't be taking the vaccine unless I feel I have to.

I wouldn't refuse it and if it's the only way to get to Vegas then sign me up but given the choice I'll be at the back of the queue.

Like Doobs says it doesn't need everyone to take it to be effective. If 5m are immune through having caught the virus and 20m are immune through vaccination you don't need to be a genius to figure out that the 'R' rate is going to drop to below 1 pretty quickly.
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Doobs
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« Reply #3347 on: November 10, 2020, 12:09:15 PM »

I think it will take a few more to get to "normality".  You'd get the R below 1 with that take up and some restrictions in place. 

I don't think it is something you need to worry about right now.  Half the population is over 40, 2 million+ are vulnerable, and you'd probably do the NHS and a few other key workers.  That is 70m doses in the UK if that is your limit and they are saying 50m worldwide by the end of the year.  I think it will take a long time for the queue to make it from Tikay to us.  I think most of us will be looking 6 months/a year out and by then the safety and effectiveness are going to be much clearer.

Note.  I say 2 million+ as there are a lot of vulnerable people who didn't even make the shielding list.

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Marky147
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« Reply #3348 on: November 10, 2020, 04:15:36 PM »

I don't class myself as a whack job but I won't be taking the vaccine unless I feel I have to.

I wouldn't refuse it and if it's the only way to get to Vegas then sign me up but given the choice I'll be at the back of the queue.

Like Doobs says it doesn't need everyone to take it to be effective. If 5m are immune through having caught the virus and 20m are immune through vaccination you don't need to be a genius to figure out that the 'R' rate is going to drop to below 1 pretty quickly.



Like yourself I'm not going to be diving to the front of the queue, unless it means no Vegas. I don't really do a lot other than the gym, so not too worried about how much I mix with others etc.

I'm talking about people who think this is some sort of plot knocked up by Bill Gates to control the world Cheesy
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nirvana
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« Reply #3349 on: November 10, 2020, 04:39:44 PM »

I think it will take a few more to get to "normality".  You'd get the R below 1 with that take up and some restrictions in place. 

I don't think it is something you need to worry about right now.  Half the population is over 40, 2 million+ are vulnerable, and you'd probably do the NHS and a few other key workers.  That is 70m doses in the UK if that is your limit and they are saying 50m worldwide by the end of the year.  I think it will take a long time for the queue to make it from Tikay to us.  I think most of us will be looking 6 months/a year out and by then the safety and effectiveness are going to be much clearer.

Note.  I say 2 million+ as there are a lot of vulnerable people who didn't even make the shielding list.



Hopefully a few other companies, using the same approach will get there soon. Be interesting to knoe if therebare special arrangements in place to share IP lkke happened with ventilator production
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« Reply #3350 on: November 11, 2020, 08:37:47 AM »

I wasn’t allowed to say anything until today, but it's now okay for me to share that I have volunteered for the Covid-19 vaccine trials that St. Vincents are running in partnership with Pfizer. It's important that we all do our part to beat this virus. The vaccine is the one that has been developed in Russia. I received my first dose this morning 06:20 am, and I wanted to let you know that it’s completely safe, with иo side effects whatsoeveя, and that I feelshκι я чувю себя немного стрно и я думю, что вытл осные уши. чувству себя немго страо.
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« Reply #3351 on: November 11, 2020, 09:16:44 AM »


Drawing up the vaccine priority list isn't an easy task, so I don't want to criticise too much, and hopefully they'll end up with something sensible.

Won't it be pretty much the same as for the flu jab? Key workers, then oldies, then vulnerable rofflers like myself and nirvana, followed by the rest?



This is well worth watching off the back of the excellent The Social Dilemma on Flix.
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« Reply #3352 on: November 11, 2020, 10:16:31 AM »

I wasn’t allowed to say anything until today, but it's now okay for me to share that I have volunteered for the Covid-19 vaccine trials that St. Vincents are running in partnership with Pfizer. It's important that we all do our part to beat this virus. The vaccine is the one that has been developed in Russia. I received my first dose this morning 06:20 am, and I wanted to let you know that it’s completely safe, with иo side effects whatsoeveя, and that I feelshκι я чувю себя немного стрно и я думю, что вытл осные уши. чувству себя немго страо.

Lol
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Doobs
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« Reply #3353 on: November 11, 2020, 10:30:56 AM »


Drawing up the vaccine priority list isn't an easy task, so I don't want to criticise too much, and hopefully they'll end up with something sensible.

Won't it be pretty much the same as for the flu jab? Key workers, then oldies, then vulnerable rofflers like myself and nirvana, followed by the rest?



This is well worth watching off the back of the excellent The Social Dilemma on Flix.

But people are already making the case for various "special" groups to be included.   Guess I am fairly high up as I am a flu jabber, but not expecting an invite any time soon. 

I have just been invited for a random Covid test, so that makes two so far in our house.   I am also giving blood in a couple of weeks.   I was told they were a bit short, so if you do, now might be a good time to rock up.  Though cynical me thinks they frequently seem to be a bit short.
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« Reply #3354 on: November 11, 2020, 12:47:12 PM »

How does the actual data compare to No10’s four scenarios shown at the Saturday press conference?

The Specator is updating daily

 It doesn't look up to date on a rough eyeball.  There are 492 today and there were just shy of 400 yesterday.  Haven't they just run it to the weekend, when there are delays, and not updated when they realised what happens midweek?

My optimism a few hours ago that maybe 500 could be the worst seems to have been misplaced.  Will take a couple of weeks before the lockdown feeds through.

I'll answer this myself.  You can find the graphs here, and interestingly you can click on get the data and go through to the actual spreadsheet used to create the graphs. 

https://data.spectator.co.uk

The chart ends on Saturday 31 October, but you can just put in the data from that date into your newly created excel sheet to create a 4 Novembet version.  In that version, you can see we are pretty much going along as expected in the projections.  This is all pretty good.  Presumably we can see the effect of the partial lockdown in the future by monitoring this?



I have been playing about with this on my PC.

I am pretty sure the spectator were using actual deaths at date of death rather than reported deaths, hence when you look at Tighty's picture the downswing at the end isn't a weekend downswing but just shows the slow reporting of previous days deaths.

Looking at 7 days ago (which should allow sufficient time for most actual deaths to be included in the data), the deaths on 29/10/2020 in England were 232.  This is likely to be an increase of 30% or so on a week previously (it is 27.5% right now, but I assume a handful of cases will be added late even now).

Looking at the comparisons, that is higher than the Warwick mid projection (210) and higher than the LSHTM low projection (150), but lower than their mid projection (270).  It is lower than all 3 Imperial projections (lowest is 280).  It is also lower than the "Cambridge/PHE" projection that was out of date and has been discredited.   

Of those projections mentioned above that were close to the deaths figure of a week ago, Warwick mid has 350 cases a day by today (Wawick low has 290, LSHTM low has 250 and LSHTM has 430).  I don't think any are massively out right now (I assume we have about 300-400 deaths a day right now once the reporting lag has worked through). 

Going forward, Warwick mid has 1,000 cases a day by 28 November; LSHTM low has 1,000 cases by 5 December, Warwick mid by 19 November and LSTHM mid by 21 November.  So the 4 more reasonable projections all have 1,000 cases a day by around the end of November.  So even if we can ignore the more hysterical/out of date Cambridge PHE projection, without measures we appeared to be heading towards peak wave 1 Covid death figues around the end of this month.

Is this now going to happpen?  I don't know.  There seems to be some evidence that growth rates were slowing already (maybe because of the tier 3 areas, maybe because people were becoming more careful and maybe because of increased immunity).  Add in the lockdown from yesterday and I think it is OK to be hopeful we don't now hit 1,000 cases a day by the end of November, and we peak at a lower number. I wouldn't be in any rush to discount a third wave though.
   

Just a quick update on this as I have updated the data.

The figure for 29/10/2020 has been updated to 247, so the weekly increase back then was at least 33%.

As of 4  November (a week ago) the figure for daily deaths is now  252, but presumably there will be around 15 or 20 added to that by this time next week.

So at the time of this lockdown, deaths were still increasing by something like 15% to 20% a week.   So you could argue that the death rate was already slowing when the lockdown was announced, but it certainly hadn't peaked.  Because of the lag from infections to deaths, and the limits on testing numbers, it is hard to say if infections were still rising too.

As of a week ago, the deaths were still above the Warwick and LSHTM low projections, but were below the middle projections from all providers.  There seems a good chance right now that we peak below 1,000 deaths a day, and it may well peak below 500 a day in this wave (actuals not reported, as the reported number is already over 500).

Deaths have now totalled over 60,000 on the ONS measure.
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« Reply #3355 on: November 12, 2020, 10:57:02 AM »

Queue for Covid testing at Dodger Stadium, LA yesterday.

 Click to see full-size image.
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Doobs
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« Reply #3356 on: November 12, 2020, 02:07:29 PM »


Drawing up the vaccine priority list isn't an easy task, so I don't want to criticise too much, and hopefully they'll end up with something sensible.

Won't it be pretty much the same as for the flu jab? Key workers, then oldies, then vulnerable rofflers like myself and nirvana, followed by the rest?



This is well worth watching off the back of the excellent The Social Dilemma on Flix.

But people are already making the case for various "special" groups to be included.   Guess I am fairly high up as I am a flu jabber, but not expecting an invite any time soon. 

I have just been invited for a random Covid test, so that makes two so far in our house.   I am also giving blood in a couple of weeks.   I was told they were a bit short, so if you do, now might be a good time to rock up.  Though cynical me thinks they frequently seem to be a bit short.

They have cancelled my blood appointment this morning, so that they can do better social distancing.  I am not sure why their plans for social distancing have changed in a couple of weeks or so.  It seems that blood supplies are in good shape after all, as they assured me in this morning's letter.  I think cynical me wins here.
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« Reply #3357 on: November 12, 2020, 03:27:31 PM »



I've been watching his updates, as I find him a lot easier to listen to than the bullshit artists in the gov.
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Marky147
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« Reply #3358 on: November 12, 2020, 03:38:15 PM »

Pfizer suit should be hauled in for a grilling.
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« Reply #3359 on: November 14, 2020, 11:22:56 PM »

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-sweden/sweden-plays-down-immunity-hopes-as-second-covid-19-wave-gathers-force-idUKKBN27S2A4
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