poker news
blondepedia
card room
tournament schedule
uk results
galleries
Welcome,
Guest
. Please
login
or
register
.
April 23, 2024, 01:03:50 PM
1 Hour
1 Day
1 Week
1 Month
Forever
Login with username, password and session length
Search:
Advanced search
Order through Amazon and help blonde Poker
2272573
Posts in
66754
Topics by
16946
Members
Latest Member:
KobeTaylor
blonde poker forum
Community Forums
The Lounge
COVID19
0 Members and 3 Guests are viewing this topic.
« previous
next »
Pages:
1
...
237
238
239
240
[
241
]
242
243
244
245
...
305
Author
Topic: COVID19 (Read 357532 times)
Marky147
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 22797
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #3600 on:
January 09, 2021, 03:16:55 PM »
Logged
Burning $$$ in Vegas 2021
http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=68840.0
Ironside
Administrator
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 41789
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #3601 on:
January 10, 2021, 09:30:40 AM »
Morning folks
Absolute Must watch documentary on BBC2 about the Covid 19 pandemic, tomorrow night 9.00pm..
2 brothers from the Wuhan research centre, where Trump suspects it was engineered, were due to get on Flight MH370 that miraculously disappeared.
Seems they were the guys behind the development of the new strain, and intending to use it as a weapon, someone caught wind of their plans and purposefully downed the plane. Neither of them got on the flight though. It’s really interesting. Have a look at it - it's called:
Two Wongs Don't Make a Flight!
Logged
lend me a beer and I'll lend you my ear
robbiebox
me
Full Member
Offline
Posts: 259
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #3602 on:
January 10, 2021, 09:36:33 AM »
There seems to be a few experts or casual COVID professors on here. So can anyone have a guess at what the true death rate of this virus is yet ? My amateur stab in the dark is between 0.2 % and 0.3 % .
Logged
Luckbox is my most successful strategy.
http://bigdealinabox.blogspot.com/
Ironside
Administrator
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 41789
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #3603 on:
January 10, 2021, 10:57:06 AM »
It's dependant on age group it's over 5% for the OAPs and about 0.1 for the under 40s according to latest figures I seen
Logged
lend me a beer and I'll lend you my ear
Jon MW
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 6191
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #3604 on:
January 10, 2021, 11:25:10 AM »
Quote from: robbiebox on January 10, 2021, 09:36:33 AM
There seems to be a few experts or casual COVID professors on here. So can anyone have a guess at what the true death rate of this virus is yet ? My amateur stab in the dark is between 0.2 % and 0.3 % .
What is your definition of "true death rate"?
Do you mean case fatality rate?
Logged
Jon "the British cowboy" Woodfield
2011 blonde MTT League August Champion
2011 UK Team Championships: Black Belt Poker Team Captain - - runners up - -
5 Star HORSE Classic - 2007 Razz Champion
2007 WSOP Razz - 13/341
Doobs
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 16575
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #3605 on:
January 10, 2021, 11:39:43 AM »
Quote from: robbiebox on January 10, 2021, 09:36:33 AM
There seems to be a few experts or casual COVID professors on here. So can anyone have a guess at what the true death rate of this virus is yet ? My amateur stab in the dark is between 0.2 % and 0.3 % .
The case fatality rate was estimated at about 1%, but is more likely to be less now because of improvements in treatments. If the NHS gets overwhelmed, as is already the case in some areas, then 1% is likely to be a low estimate.
It varies enormously by age as Ironside says, so it is probably best to focus on that. I think 5% is much too low for the oldest patients, but many of those will be vaccinated soon.
I haven't seen any conclusive evidence for lower mortality from the new variant. I don't think the treatments and new variants are going to take it down to 0.2% to 0.3%, but the vaccines should.
Logged
Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
Doobs
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 16575
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #3606 on:
January 10, 2021, 11:48:07 AM »
David Spiegelhalter, who is a real statistics guy estimated the risk of death from Covid as around the same as most people's normal mortality rate.
https://mobile.twitter.com/d_spiegel/status/1304376828577091585
So if you are at an age where you normally have a 1% risk of dying, then if you get Covid your risk of dying is then around 2% for that year. The Covid 19 Actuaries group reached the same conclusion.
The new variant appears to affect younger ages more than the old one, but it is too early to be confident on changes in mortality rate. I think it is reasonable to stick to Spiegelhalter's conclusion for now
Logged
Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
EvilPie
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 14253
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #3607 on:
January 10, 2021, 03:58:51 PM »
Quote from: Doobs on January 10, 2021, 11:48:07 AM
David Spiegelhalter, who is a real statistics guy estimated the risk of death from Covid as around the same as most people's normal mortality rate.
https://mobile.twitter.com/d_spiegel/status/1304376828577091585
So if you are at an age where you normally have a 1% risk of dying, then if you get Covid your risk of dying is then around 2% for that year. The Covid 19 Actuaries group reached the same conclusion.
The new variant appears to affect younger ages more than the old one, but it is too early to be confident on changes in mortality rate. I think it is reasonable to stick to Spiegelhalter's conclusion for now
So if this is correct it would mean Covid deaths is 40000 instead of the 80000 quoted as the rest of them would've died anyway?
Logged
Motivational speeches at their best:
"Because thats what living is, the 6 inches in front of your face......" - Patrick Leonard - 10th May 2015
Marky147
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 22797
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #3608 on:
January 10, 2021, 04:55:02 PM »
For ~5m from 1hr 12m on goes into these, and that Spiegelhalter chart.
How they're misinterpreted by media as saying it wasn't increasing risk/deaths and actually means double.
He corrected it, but that got nowhere near the coverage of the misinterpretations.
Worth watching from 1hr 12m to the end actually, as they go into some other stuff that's interesting, too.
«
Last Edit: January 10, 2021, 05:02:18 PM by Marky147
»
Logged
Burning $$$ in Vegas 2021
http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=68840.0
Doobs
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 16575
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #3609 on:
January 10, 2021, 04:55:28 PM »
Quote from: EvilPie on January 10, 2021, 03:58:51 PM
Quote from: Doobs on January 10, 2021, 11:48:07 AM
David Spiegelhalter, who is a real statistics guy estimated the risk of death from Covid as around the same as most people's normal mortality rate.
https://mobile.twitter.com/d_spiegel/status/1304376828577091585
So if you are at an age where you normally have a 1% risk of dying, then if you get Covid your risk of dying is then around 2% for that year. The Covid 19 Actuaries group reached the same conclusion.
The new variant appears to affect younger ages more than the old one, but it is too early to be confident on changes in mortality rate. I think it is reasonable to stick to Spiegelhalter's conclusion for now
So if this is correct it would mean Covid deaths is 40000 instead of the 80000 quoted as the rest of them would've died anyway?
I think additional Covid deaths are going to be about 73,000 as that was roughly the additional deaths last year. Given many Covid people would have died anyway, then I'd say actual Covid deaths are significantly higher than the 80,000 the official figures sugest now. This is consistent with poor testing availability in wave 1.
Spiegelhalter's hypothesis is just rough and ready and isn't going to work perfectly, so that might change the maths quite a lot. If it doesn't work very well for over 80s then that is going to make a big difference. I think it works pretty well for 50ish males, which is where I am.
I haven't got time to put everything together now, but will have a think about it if I get time in the week.
Logged
Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
Marky147
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 22797
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #3610 on:
January 11, 2021, 12:59:44 AM »
https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/capecrusaders/the-covid-chronicles
2020 must be a 13 month year
https://twitter.com/s8mb/status/1348042100777082881
https://twitter.com/EmergencyBod/status/1348215169038626818
Found that in here, and can' believe there are 7ppl that have chucked him £5,000, and almost £150,000 total.
£10k costs and £135k dividends?
«
Last Edit: January 11, 2021, 01:04:17 AM by Marky147
»
Logged
Burning $$$ in Vegas 2021
http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=68840.0
Doobs
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 16575
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #3611 on:
January 11, 2021, 02:13:07 AM »
Quote from: Marky147 on January 11, 2021, 12:59:44 AM
https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/capecrusaders/the-covid-chronicles
2020 must be a 13 month year
https://twitter.com/s8mb/status/1348042100777082881
https://twitter.com/EmergencyBod/status/1348215169038626818
Found that in here, and can' believe there are 7ppl that have chucked him £5,000, and almost £150,000 total.
£10k costs and £135k dividends?
Suspect so, it isn't like he even does any research for his videos, even the most important ones ever.
That peerage thing is brilliant. I saw Cummins had changed his tune, and almost posted it here. Then I thought he had gone a bit madder than normal. Now it is clear.
Allison Pearson and Carl Heneghan seem to have gone quiet.
Logged
Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
Marky147
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 22797
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #3612 on:
January 11, 2021, 02:40:26 AM »
https://twitter.com/jocami_ca/status/1307572931766165504
Gets a rinsing here, by the looks of the first few posts.
Might save it for breakfast, as I don't want to wind myself up this late at night
Logged
Burning $$$ in Vegas 2021
http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=68840.0
Chompy
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 11852
Expert
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #3613 on:
January 11, 2021, 08:51:03 AM »
Rumour is elite sport is being discussed today. Racing might be pulled as early as tomorrow. Not heard anything specific about football.
Logged
"I know we must all worship at the Church of Chomps, but statements like this are just plain ridic. He says he can't get a bet on, but we all know he can."
Chompy
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 11852
Expert
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #3614 on:
January 11, 2021, 11:02:37 AM »
Racing continues.
Logged
"I know we must all worship at the Church of Chomps, but statements like this are just plain ridic. He says he can't get a bet on, but we all know he can."
Pages:
1
...
237
238
239
240
[
241
]
242
243
244
245
...
305
« previous
next »
Jump to:
Please select a destination:
-----------------------------
Poker Forums
-----------------------------
=> The Rail
===> past blonde Bashes
===> Best of blonde
=> Diaries and Blogs
=> Live Tournament Updates
=> Live poker
===> Live Tournament Staking
=> Internet Poker
===> Online Tournament Staking
=> Poker Hand Analysis
===> Learning Centre
-----------------------------
Community Forums
-----------------------------
=> The Lounge
=> Betting Tips and Sport Discussion
Loading...