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Author Topic: COVID19  (Read 353806 times)
Marky147
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« Reply #3660 on: January 17, 2021, 01:01:27 AM »

This James Clark could get himself on the police force once this is all done, or set himself up as a PI Cheesy

https://twitter.com/JimTimberthing/status/1350578307973181453

Ivor is quite a shirty fellow, and I'm guessing he'll be back on the diet grift if his film career doesn't take off.
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« Reply #3661 on: January 17, 2021, 12:11:20 PM »

This James Clark could get himself on the police force once this is all done, or set himself up as a PI Cheesy

https://twitter.com/JimTimberthing/status/1350578307973181453

Ivor is quite a shirty fellow, and I'm guessing he'll be back on the diet grift if his film career doesn't take off.

I couldn't be dealing with that wall of text in his reply.  I knew he had deleted his past from LinkedIn, but wasn't absolutely sure what he had been doing.  Good work.

Yeadon came back too.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MichaelYeadon3/status/1350531479579848705

Cliffs,

false positives are a big thing [no they aren't: see article, plus NSW plus English Summer etc. and why are so many people dying "with" Covid if only 2% of the population tested positive for Covid at peak?].
some more meaningless blah, blah
chart that ends mid December for deaths, and was likely missing lagging data at the time [rolls eyes]
look at my qualifications, therefore I am right
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« Reply #3662 on: January 17, 2021, 03:22:30 PM »

Stuart McDonald worked with Ed Conway for this earlier in the week, which was shown on Sky News. 

How bad is 2020 mortality vs previous years?

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-how-mortality-rates-in-2020-compare-with-past-decades-and-centuries-12185275

Sunday official figures are always lower than normal beccause of reporting issues, but the Zoe app update from yesterday suggesting R is now below 1

https://mobile.twitter.com/timspector/status/1350556004321275904

This should be more reliable than official figures (which suggested 1.2 to 1.3 earlier in the week). Official figures are based on hospital admissions which lag symptoms and cases.  You can see the drop in official case numbers where cases have been down week on week for individual days recently (ie Saturday is compared to  previous Saturday and so on). 
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Marky147
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« Reply #3663 on: January 17, 2021, 03:46:19 PM »

This James Clark could get himself on the police force once this is all done, or set himself up as a PI Cheesy

https://twitter.com/JimTimberthing/status/1350578307973181453

Ivor is quite a shirty fellow, and I'm guessing he'll be back on the diet grift if his film career doesn't take off.

I couldn't be dealing with that wall of text in his reply.  I knew he had deleted his past from LinkedIn, but wasn't absolutely sure what he had been doing.  Good work.

Yeadon came back too.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MichaelYeadon3/status/1350531479579848705

Cliffs,

false positives are a big thing [no they aren't: see article, plus NSW plus English Summer etc. and why are so many people dying "with" Covid if only 2% of the population tested positive for Covid at peak?].
some more meaningless blah, blah
chart that ends mid December for deaths, and was likely missing lagging data at the time [rolls eyes]
look at my qualifications, therefore I am right

I saw that word doc. Notice that he got in the 'many wines' addendum, so I guess that gives him a back up when it gets pulled apart Cheesy

I'd sooner listen to Cummins speak, but Yeadon is definitely hard work to listen to.

Obsessed with cases and false positives, lol. Are these people just dying randomly and bowling into intensive care with broken toenails?
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Marky147
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« Reply #3664 on: January 17, 2021, 03:49:32 PM »



Sunday update from JC.

UK starts @ 7m.
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« Reply #3665 on: January 18, 2021, 01:38:00 PM »

An interesting piece on the Covid Actuaries response group.

A version of this one appeared on the Spectator website, but this isn't behind the paywall.

https://www.covid-arg.com/post/how-soon-to-see-the-vaccine-s-benefits

It shows deaths should reduce rapidly by the end of March, but ICU admissions could remain an issue.  It shows that the Government needs to be careful not to reopen too soon if the aim is really to stop the NHS getting overwhelmed. 

In other news, as well as the cases falling, the percentage of positive tests has been falling significantly.  Both things are good news.
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« Reply #3666 on: January 18, 2021, 03:02:19 PM »

Good news, in many respects.

Just get opening up in time for beer garden season Smiley
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« Reply #3667 on: January 18, 2021, 05:33:19 PM »

Good news, in many respects.

Just get opening up in time for beer garden season Smiley

I am thinking we are going to be fine to go away in August witth the kids, and haven't cancelled the trip to see my mum at Easter yet.  She gets vaccinated tomorrow FWIW.

I don't think it is all good news yet, as deaths are still stabilised, and it seems to be taking off in care homes too.  Hopefully all these vaccinations will nip that in the bud, though there are bound to be more "my mum got vaccinated and then got Covid" posts.  This is bound to happen as no vaccine is going to stop all cases and there is still a lag of a couple of weeks as the vaccine takes effect.  I still think the most likely scenario is that deaths are going to peak in the next week or so and look much better by end of March.   

You'd have liked a chart that someone replied with to one of the Actuaries today.  Someone had just drawn an arrow pointing to the bottom of the cases chart after little lockdown two finished and before new variant took off.  It was marked "vaccination starts"...  Ivor has probbaly retweeted it already (I haven't checked).

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« Reply #3668 on: January 18, 2021, 06:12:10 PM »

Think James Clark has been at him, along with the guy that posted the article on Young's site, too.

People get so into the smiley faces and deep data analysis, they'll just lap up whatever Ivor says, as long as it's too complicated for them to decipher.
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« Reply #3669 on: January 18, 2021, 07:36:27 PM »

Sweden

Why Sweden Covid deaths always appear to decrease.

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-sweden-death-reporting

Swedish deaths in 2020

https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-deaths/

2020 is clearly an outlier and that is clear even using data that was at 30 December 2020.  As the data was released early, it is going to be missing late death registrations from over the holiday period.  You can see the effect of late death registrations in the UK data I posted last night, and that was an update on data that was an update to data originally posted a few days after the end of the year.  I couldn't find any later data right now, but that total is certain to be revised upwards from there.   


I have worked out that the Swedish statistical people update every Monday and it is clear Statista aren't updating.  As of today's update there were 97.985 deaths in Sweden last year (nearly 3,000 more than Statista have), and any graphs showing deaths tailing off at the year end are just flat out wrong.   

The source is here.


https://www.scb.se/en/finding-statistics/statistics-by-subject-area/population/population-composition/population-statistics/


You can see the increases due to late reporting in table 8 (table 1 has 97,941, but have stuck to table 8 as I can reconcile Statista to the figures in that one, and think the difference is down to "Okänd dödsdag", which is unknown dates of death.  Table 8 may well have some unknown deaths from 2021 in there, so I do think table 1 is more likely to be accurate.  I don't think it matters too much, as the figures will likely be updated upwards again next Monday (The lag is pretty bad).

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« Reply #3670 on: January 18, 2021, 09:33:04 PM »

This is what I was talking about earlier.

In the second hump the rate of positivity hit a maximum of 15.4% on 29 December.The weekly average peaked at 13.0% on 4 January and has been falling quite steadily ever since then to a figure of 7.5% today.

There is bound to be some statistical fluctuation, but that looks like a very significant fall to me.

https://www.covid-arg.com/post/reporting-covid-19-case

To clarify the previous post, we are probably at least as bad as Sweden with our deaths, I was just saying that the recent charts from the usual suspects about Sweden are massively inaccurate.  I am not sure if there has ever been a period where they were accurate.
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« Reply #3671 on: January 19, 2021, 02:12:52 AM »

And like Snowdon said 'I'm damn sure they had a better 2020 than us'  Cheesy

This is good and been quite well known for ages.



I hammered both my parents about it a while back, and because of my MS have been taking 15,000 iu a day for ~5years.
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« Reply #3672 on: January 19, 2021, 02:27:16 AM »

https://twitter.com/braidedmanga/status/1346820505689587712

Seeing people rail against the grifter does appease any irritation he brings.



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« Reply #3673 on: January 19, 2021, 11:12:40 AM »

More positivity

This map was a sea of red 2 or 3 weeks ago (apart from a few bits of Scotland and Devon from memory). 

It is now looking way better.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map
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« Reply #3674 on: January 19, 2021, 03:31:13 PM »

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/thousands-of-israelis-tested-positive-for-coronavirus-after-first-vaccine-shot-1.9462478

Thousands of Israelis have tested positive for Covid after Pfizer vaccine.  I am not sure what this means, as false positives should not happen with a mRNA vaccine.   There are no details of whether they are sick or not, and it may just be a lot of Covid in the community at vaccine time and it takes a couple of weeks for immunity.

Today's question; I noticed a non Exec at a big financial company retweeting Ian Brown earlier.  What level do the cranks have to be before you can't work for them?  Do they have to have gone full Cummins before you lose so much respect you have to walk out the door?   Can imagine meeting this person in future and all I'll have in my head will be Ian Brown retweeter.  Might work for presentations, as it is hard to be intimidated in the circumstances.
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