Another Wednesday, and another big shrug at the "Third Wave".
Starting with deaths, which is where thos weekly update started. Another week has passed and there has been no increase in deaths at all. There may be a lag in some of the data, but we are still seeing only 6 deaths a day on average and that has been the case for a fortnight now. At this level it seems that "excess" deaths may stay below zero for some time.
Hospitalisations are up to an average of 150 a day over the latest week I can see, which is slightly up on the 125 I reported last week. It has been over 180 for the last couple of days but that still isn't massive, and doesn't suggest there will be mases of deaths in the next couple of weeks.
Cases have been increasing by about 40% a week. We have seen several days above 7,000 a day, but none above 8,000 in the last week.
So overall things are getting a bit worse, but not massively so.
Hello, its Wednesday, woohoo.
Another Wednesday where nothing much happens.
Deaths are still rising a bit, but that is all it is. 27 deaths were reported yesterday, but that was mostly just delayed deaths from the weekend; average deaths were still less than 10 a day in England this time last week.
Hospitalisations. They are now up to 200 a day, from 150 or so the week before, so up about a third on the week. As the average age is much lower this time, then there isn't going to be a big surge in deaths nezt week.
Cases. No excitement here either. They are probably still increasing at 20% or so a week over the last week or so, hence the increase has definitely been slowing down. Zoe app has R down at 1.1
Deaths will probably carry on drifting up for a few more weeks, as they catch up with the current hospitalisations and cases. There seems no reason at all for not going to stage 4 next month. Other than a nagging worry about the long term effects of Covid on our kids (who are going to be at higher risk of Covid for some time), I don't really see much harm in confirming it now.
Though I dislike UEFA liggers as much as the next man, then I can't get too excited about them rocking up at Wembley. Given the vaccination status of the majority of adults here, these people are likely to be a bigger danger to their own countries than ours. Hope they get theiir fair share of opprobrium when they return home.
Somebody asked about the USA the other day, their cases look to have levelled off, as the delta variant spreads (now up to 20% or so cases). I think it is safe to say that they will get a third wave like ours, given their vaccination progress is lagging ours by a few weeks.
Hopefully we'll all be fine, and none of us will be members of the unlucky few going forward.