blonde poker forum

First bets of the new year for me as California is where it feel like it all gets going again.

Mickelson @ 21, and Hoffman @ 180, both on BF.

Nice

Frazar @ 50/1
Kirk @ 66/1

Hi Ralph.

I'm laying this week as the US event is 20 the field so I got a full book up in that. In the Euro I have spot laid around 8 or 9 that I thought were short enough.

At the prices in the Euro I liked Noren, Colsaerts and Tom Lewis.

In the US I liked Laird, Van Pelt ,Frazar, Molder and Kyle Stanley. So I have turned those into bigger winners in the books by taking a little on each.

gl us!

Don't tempt me.......

Where are the prices, please?

Thoughts on Alex Noren for this year anyone? Any chances of tidding a major?

I wouldn't be having much on mate, its early season, the Euro course looks tricky and the US course (s) v v easy so super shoot out on the cards there.

Noren is around 27
Colsaerts 38
Lewis was a 50 chance but is now under that on BF

In the US

Laird is 27
Van Pelt 36
Molder 46
Frazar 55
Stanley 60

The last 5 winners in the US event were priced at 300, 100, 66, 200 and 125, it will almost be a putting contest. They are very tentative picks that I thought could be a little shorter.

(Frazar actually shot 59 in the tour school around here a few years ago and has run 5th and 2nd the last two weeks, tho he has won one tourney in all the years he has been on tour but it was last year)

Firsr round Thursday?

So spooky Chompy, I was saying that to a friend this afternoon. He winters in Arizona with his good mate Kaymer so he is usually sharp early in the season. The one huge difference in his game now is that Kaymer has finally made him understand that he cannot birdie every hole so his course management is now much better. He played great to win the Welsh Open and the Nordea Master last season, both were played in very tough conditions, the 3rd round of the Welsh and 4th round of the Nordea were played in very strong winds, almost unplayable. He looks to have the ideal game for the Open, the problem with betting majors this early in the season is come game day you can be out of form or beaten by the draw so its prolly (get that Tikay, cool speak) summat to bet if he starts to go well or is in grand form a few weeks before it.

yes, early morning our time the Euro, afternoon the US.

Am working during the day tomorrow & Friday, but no plans for the next few evenings, other than maybe Luton Friday, & I'm all nicely set up in my new place in London, so a few nights in, chilling, & watching the golf, sounds good. Sooooo tempted to have a dabble now......

I bumped into At It Bradley recently - he supplies gaming sites of distinction with Odds these days, I gather. Amazing how our various lives all turned out.

I've added Cameron Tringale to my US portfolio @ 240 on BF.

FWIW he is my dark horse to follow this season.

He is a great guy, we spoke a few months ago via email or Facebook, it was a bit tricky as I had a put a bet on for a mate with the firm he worked for, had a bit of it myself and there was some problem. I can't remember exactly what it was now.


BTW I am much better at laying players that don't win then backing players that do!

Kirk @ 60
Frazar @ 55
Gay @ 40
Stanley @ 66's

gl all!

this comps the definition of a 1 horse race:

Tom Gillis    710    £7.00    £4,963.00

like a lot

in

How did those tentative selections fare in the Euro & Humana?

I sat down with much anticipation to watch the Humana last night, but thought the coverage was pretty terrible, I mean, just as bad as bad can be. I don't watch live golf to see interviews galore with Bill Clinton, or z-List personalities being interviewed by bimbos who make a complete pigs ear of the interviews. They seemed to have a very limited number of camera positions, too, the "over the cliff" Par 3 was nice to see once, but not for the whole x hours, & really, it's just a lob over the side of a hill thingie.

The thing is, the Euro Golf was on, too, but that was recorded, & I don't get a buzz from recorded golf, it's live golf that does it for me.

I know the Humana thing is just Mickey Mouse stuff, but the TV coverage was still a disappointment.

I agree that the coverage was very poor, way too much filling-in it seemed while they were waiting to hook up with the US commentary, and I don't really want to watch Molinari and his coach hitting balls in the nets!

I got matched late on Toms (I know this sounds like aftertiming but honestly) @100 and laid him @12 which seems very short to me, at the end of play. So I now have a total liability of £15 on the event with virtual freerolls on:

Toms(-9) +£800, Hoffman(-2) +£3600, Tringale(-4) +£5700, and Mickelson(+2) £1000

Nice bet boast  :)

Keep up the good work I enjoy reading your posts

That is incredible! Wish someone would teach me how to do that. Chompy was going to, but he bottled it.

There's nothing to it Tony.

All you have to do is bet on a 100/1 shot who shoots -9 on the first day and Bob's your uncle ;)

Bugger. Back to the drawing board, then.

Think about the stock exchange...you buy gold at £500...it goes up in value.. and you sell it at £550 thus locking in a £50 profit...Alternatively you could sell Gold (called selling short) at £500 it goes down to £450  and you buy back, again locking in a £50 profit.On both transactions you have traded a position due to  market fluctuation.

Well its the same on Golf/sports betting...Prices change based on player performance/weight of money etc...the skill is to anticipate the market changes (normally by having opinions on player / team  performances ) and back/ lay...buy/sell accordingly .This is what Karabiner has done thus locking in a profit regardless of the result ( free rolling in this instance )

Beware though !.. there are dangers ! especially if you are laying at big prices or you get the market wrong, or you even put  a decimal point in the wrong place.

Make sure you are 100% sure before  dipping your toe or the trading sharks will get you   :)

Hi Tony,

The Euro started well Colsaerts shot 9 under to lead by 4 after round one, Lewis was tied for 2nd, that was the good news to as they have fallen back this morning, still early tho and Colsaerts is still in jt 3rd. Noren a few under for today so on the edge of contention too. It was playing like St Andrews without wind yesterday tho and the scoring was good.

The US went ok too

Laid 6 under
Van Pelt 5 under
Molder 1under
Frazar 4 under
Stanley 4 under

There was just around a shot difference in the course averages between the 3 courses, of those 5 Laird Van Pelt and Stanley didn't play the easier course. 9 under leads to so we got some catching up to do.


The good thing for Ralph is Toms played La Quinta which played a shot harder than the Nicklaus course and almost half a shot harder than the Palmer course.

The coverage of these pro ams is always really painful, this is not a usual week's coverage but it can still be very much a case of interviews followed by shots that happened 2-3 mins ago, ad break a lot of the time.

I understand all that, (first 2 paragraphs), that's the simple bit!

But I've never used Betfair, & it's quite important, I think, to learn to use the software properly, before investing serious money, & messing up. The deft footwork needed to manage 4 or 5 positions on the same event & manipulate such that you are greened out is something I need to learn. I picked up two books about it at Foyles recently, too.

I really don't want to get back into betting again, I have been there & done it, big time, but these bad boys in this thread are so teasing me.....

Solid start, Phil. Damn you, damn Ralphy boy, I'm nearly hooked again.

The "deft footwork" that you refer to only really comes into play if you are betting in-running.

At golf most of the serious bets are placed between rounds until the last day which is reflected in the liquidity in the market, and even then there is a significant delay which would put all but the most fearless off or at least make one very wary as BF will give you clues by it's movement, unless you were in the fortunate position of heading to a play-off. You would normally have a decent window there.

You can always manage your position in advance so to speak.

i.e. My man Tringale wins me c£5.5K but I can stick in £1k to lay @ evens or whatever price I want to insure at, well in advance of him reaching that price.

Good luck with that Ralph, keep us updated please.

Phil - how are your tips for the Humana looking now? I was offline last night, but will be watching tonight & tomorrow, & I've still got that itch.....

hi Tony,

Not great now. Laird and Frazar about the only two in with a chance but they are 7 and 8 behind, tho there have been a few rounds of -9 and a few -10 and even a -11 from Ryan Moore so far so there is plenty of play left. The problem is its hard to see how the leaders won't go nicely under par too.

The Euro went better, Colsaerts went from 4 in front after the 1st round to 6 behind after the second to tied for the lead going into the last round. Just to show how easy the course played on the first day Colsaerts shot 64 then, today it played much tougher, especially early on and poor Pablo Martin shot 90!!

Toms is still right up there and I have a potentially humungous sweat with Tringale who is only a few shots off the lead.

As Phil said, there's a lot of play left in this.

Thanks Ralph, Phil, hope you both have a good sweat - Ralphy boy could be on a monster there!

I hope you keep this thread going beyond this week, as the two 2012 Tours get going properly. Confirmed follower here.

Tringale was one of my worst results in the US event Ralph but I have had to buy it back and make him a break level at worst. I couldn't sit and cheer against him when he is your top result. Good luck with him and Toms

Top man Phil, I hope you have a great year.

This seems like it could be a seriously bad beat. This tourney is being played on three courses for the first three days.

Conditions are so bad at La Quinta where both of my contenders are playing that play has had to be suspended.

Looks like I might have done another £15 in cold blood rather than win the £5700 that I was hoping for.

Unlucky, it seems, Ralph. That wind really blew!

Guess that the intrinsic problem here is the three different courses thing. Opportunity for unfair situations must be huge.

Playing on multiple courses is not ideal, and nor are pro-ams for that matter as +EV betting media.

It must be said however that Mark Wilson who is playing La Quinta a couple of groups ahead of Tringale is -5 today.

There's always someone in professional golf on any given day, whatever the conditions who shoots a great score.

Any sweats still on tonight?

www.pgatour.com/r/leaderboard/

Thanks Ralph, more a perspire than a sweat, then, but you never know.

Not much for me to cheer on of the 5 pre game players. By sheer luck really In havent laid a penny on Robert Garrigus throughout the event so trying to lay him now at just under 9/1 to give me an ok position.

The sweat was in the Euro golf tho, an absolutely perfect event to trade as 5 golfers were done at under 2/1 in the last round. Colsaerts was done at under 11/8 as he stood on the 72nd tee tied at the top with grace also playing the last on the same score, Els and Goosen in the house also on the same score. Colsaerts missed a 5 footer to get in the play off but the book was pretty level by that stage.

Great sport tho, with so many twists down the stretch.

Ralph's perspire is turning into a full blown sweat, Toms is only 2 behind now, with plenty of  holes still to play.

Tiger Tiger Woods yaaall

Tiger is back in action this week at the Abu Dhabi European Tour event. The organisers have narrowed the fairways quite a lot from previous events held here and also let the rough grow longer, almost the same thing that courses did 5-7 years ago to 'Tiger proof' them. It probably isn't needed now but he is coming off his first win for over 2 years at the end of last season.

Looks like it will be a week for long straight drivers at first glance.

huge standout value is Jason Day.

Manassero @ 230.0

might be a bit long for him though.

I would expect him to be hitting the ball a bit further this season. He certainly added some length last year.

joyous news, come on manny.

The weather forecast in the Euro event looks to favour the early starters 2morrow as the winds will be 5mph in the morning but rising to 20 mph in the afternoon, that isn't that unusual in the Middle Eastern events. The bonus for these early starters in the first round tho is that the winds look pretty consistent throughout the second round.

I probably wouldn't be wanting to back a late starter to beat an early starter in a match bet given that forecast


In the he US event the weather looks to be spot on, so shouldn't be a huge bias over the two courses they are using weather wise, which there was last week. They are playing on two courses tho again this week with the North course being around 4 shots easier than the South course.

The main difference between this week and the previous three events is after 3 events on Bermuda grass greens we are on poa anna grass for the next three weeks, This strain is very difficult to read, as there is little or no grain as against bermuda.

I would say poa anna greens are the ones which are hardest to come to grips with, and local players, California based have a big advantage. So might make sense to look at the back form of players in this event than recent form on different grass, as year after year players that do/don't play well on this grass remain the same.

Poa anna is also used at Pebble, the Northern Trust Open and the Frys.com open so form at those events will be relevant too.

Nice preview Phil.

It's convinced me to give your namesake Mickelson a chance to redeem himself this week, well that and the 16/1.

Agree, nice analysis, Phil, this grass & that grass, wind speed, tee-times, the lot.

It might all be tosh, but it impressed me.

The temptation to resume punting, after a decade or so of abstinence, with, in particular, golf in mind, is temporarily held at bay, as I am working asll weekend in Luton, so no TV for me - & the fun of the punting would be almost exclusively in the watching.

I'm also being subtly nagged by a very good friend, not to be so daft as to ever bet again.

For now, he holds sway. Next week, who knows?

How about this?

We start a thread, called Tikay's Tips and the regular contributors on here are allowed to put a maxmum of one value bet a week on there and you are only allowed to bet on those..

Karabiner and Phil on golf

Horneris on football

Redarmi on horse racing

Solaris on tennis

Dubai on just about anything

I almost guarantee you'll have won by the end of the year.

You start with a bank of say, £1000 and no-one is allowed to suggest a bet of more than 5% of your roll.

What do you think?

And you take us all out for dinner at the end of the year with the profits!

lol, grass and wind, i sound  like a farmer.

I've laid a few in the Euro golf, mainly players teeing off in the afternoon. Of the big 5 in the market, Mcilroy, Woods and Donald all play in the same group in the morning. Kaymer and Westwood are out with Garcia in the afternoon. It night just make the difference.

You will like this Tony, Martin Kaymer's last 4 tourneys around this track he has won 3 times and was 2nd in the other event.

In the US most of the main contenders love the grass( which is probably why they are here) and are priced accordingly

A few darts have been thrown at
 
D A Points, 12th and 6th in two events this season but his last 4 events on poa anna 5th,1st MC, 9th

Bryce Molder, his form here is poor, two MC and a disq but his last 8 events on PA grass have 4 finishes of 1st,6th,10th and 32nd amongst them. It could be that the course is just too long for him but at 160 ish I don't mind paying to find out.

Spencer Levins last 4 events on PA have produced finishes of 20th,4th,12th and 7th, he doesn't really look good in a finish but if we can get him in contention then we can play with it.

Jimmy Walkers last 3 PA events were 29,9,4

Marc Leishman's last 7 events on PA were 9th,21st mc,36th 2nd,15th mc but the two best results were at this course.

A guy that Leknave backed last week too Tom Gillis, his PA  results are 17th,3rd,MC,27th,8th, so had to add him in at around 470+ on BF

Backed them small and will just play the event as a whole in running each day


gl with big Phil Ralph,he must kinow every blade of grass around here.

I've gone for a few this week in Abu Dhabi:

Karlsson @ 60, Aiken @ 150, Manassero @ 240, Ollie Fisher @ 480 and one other longshot as yet unmatched.

Smallish stakes approximately £100 invested in total.

gl mate

thrown darts at:

US:

Bradley @ 40
D.A Points @ 48
Garrigus @ 80
Rollins @ 75

Abu Dhabi:

Quiros @ 34
Hanson @ 48
Lawrie @ 210
Manassero @ 230

And 1 other in each event that not matched on yet, Tom 'Gillis' Gillis at a big price and Ricardo Gonzalez in the Abu Dhabi.

Am glad you also like Points and Gillis Bobby!

Backed Ricccccckie Fowler in  US @ 33/1  (encouraged by Bobbys poa grass comments as he has form both here and in frys)

F Mol and Robert Karllson @ 50/1 in Abu Dhabi

gla

good luck us, sounds like we need to set up the Tom Gillis fan club :)

already is 1 i think

Hes been my Stars avatar for the last year.

Best of luck to you too Phil and everyone else for that matter as long as they're not in a playoff with one of mine.

I'm looking to trade in-running too, this is merely a starting-point.

You can't beat betting on golf if you get a bit of a run at it.

Only betting in majors this year in the golf were I can follow every shot closely and were there is loads of liquidity for trading in running. Managed to get all green books in every major last year but lost way too much on other events where I couldn't dedicate enough time 4 days a week every week to play in running.

I couldn't help myself having a browse tho and wouldn't put anyone off Haas, Rollins or Leishman at prices in the US.

No-one for Abu Dhabi.

Added Danny Willett to my Euro portfolio @ 220 which is a little lower than I was hoping for but rounds things off nicely.

added Dustin Johnson in the US @ 40.0. W/d because of injury last week, but apparently wasnt becasue of the knee he had surgery on and was just back pain/stiffness through the lack of walking since surgery. Hope hes good to go now.

some good starts there guys from Bobby K and Lawrie

How is -10 after 1 round for starters?

nice call on Levin so far. Guessing you'll be doing a little trading though.

Glad i added Dustin this morn, a solid -6. Although it seems like the North course played ridic easy today and everyone shot well there.

Rollins and D.A Points shot -2 on the South Course so hoping they can put in a solid round on the North 2moro before going into the wknd.


Not holding too much hope at the Abu Dhabi event, best performer for me was Lawrie -2. Its going to need 3 special days from him to win it but you never know.

Yes, I will probably play most of it back now,  tho I'm going to see what the weather fcast is in the morning before I do anything. It seems to have changed a little and looks to be windy in the afternoon, which might give those playing the South course in the afternoon some trouble.

I've laid Bill Haas as I am not even sure he should be fav, some good players between 3 and 5 under that played he South today and the North in the morning tomorrow might turn out to be the perfect draw for them. There will prob be some 8 unders + on that course again 2morrow so anyone down to 1 or 2 under that played the South today can still get bang into it. Which is good coz we have a few of those between us too.

Over 3.6 shots difference between the two courses on day 1 and the forecast is for a little wind this afternoon but nothing too bad. Still the difference between the good scores on the North on day one and the 2 to 5 unders on the tough course isn't all that much.

I've greened out in Abu Dhabi, couldn't resist laying 4/1 Karlsson who still wins me £1K.

BIG £7K freeroll on Ollie Fisher, and decent ones on Aiken and Manassero.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCEB9GgKoJ0&feature=relmfu

Fantastic!

Serious donk move from Rory there brushing sand off the fringe.

oioiii, what a round from Manassero, -7 today. Now lying tied 2nd 1 behind the leader on -6.

Lawrie with a deece -3 round too to go -5 overall and tied 5th 2 behind.


long way to go though...

great stuff there mate, got a few nice shouts for the weekend in the Euro. Lets hope we can get a few in the US too.

Ralph, that was the perfect spot for laying back the Bobby K bet.

Tiger all over this abu dhabi event. he's back!

omg, what is this in the US.

Keegan Bradley and John Rollins playing beautifully and on -8 and -7 on the day and both -10 overall with about 5 to play.

Keegan TREBLE bogeys then Rollins double bogeys within about 10 mins of each other, fmfl.

Lost count of the times I back some one in running who then goes bogey bogey bogey.

Tiger gonna take some beating.  Great to see again.

Yes brill to see. I hope Junior had a few quid on too.

I'm feeling your pain too ChipRich, I backed Rollins ew at 40/1 when I was about 16/1 and he was single figures before playing the last 5 in one over. Still we got a chance mate but at ten under with 5 to play I was hoping for an 11 or 12 under finish.

Will have to give you and Horneris the assist if he wins. ;o)

Yeah, hope Rollins can forget about the dbl bogey and get back on it today.


Great round at Abu Dhabi for Hanson, 2 behind now on -9 along with Lawrie at -9 too. Sigh at Tiger tho, gna be tough!

You and T mar got some good chances there, he has Molinari. Just need Tiger to do the decent thing and blow it.

yeah f mol got himself right back in the mix after dodgy start on day 1.... go on francesco!!!!!!!

really impressed with tiger today,  totally focused

gl anyone still in with a chance!!

Of course :-)

Good work Greg,

Going to be annoying if Rolliins gets beaten in the US event by Stanley who was one of the pre tourney stable last week.

yeah, was on Stanley last week too. massive tilt if Stanley doesnt bottle it. gl us

Not watched a single shot of it but how is tiger odds against in the UAE?

Tiger time? How big?

Hansons got that 1 in the bag boss. well, i hope so.

obv if you pile Tiger he wont tho.

Packed leaderboard at least half a dozen still in it imo.

It's Tiger but not as we knew him.

Yeah but its 2012 so i dont lose, and its post 2000 so Flushy doesnt lose. If we choose to bet him, its over :)

I'd forgotten that I wasn't dealing with mere mortals here.

It's late you'll have to forgive me and I also have a couple of vested if slightly forlorn interests in MatteoM and BobbyK.

Tiiiiiiger

That 20 foot par putt was the turning point right there! Rock to crumble from here

Lol maybe not!

Well I couldn't have made a bigger pigs ear of that if I had tried. Had a really nice book going there and then got stuck into Rock at around evens and kept it even when he drifted out later on.

bah Robert Rock and bah me!

omg, Stanley. sickest blow

3 clear going into the last, triple bogeys! In water, then misses an easy putt.

I thought he was really unlucky there pitching well past the pin and spinning back into the drink.

c£70K matched on BF @ 1.01

got on Brandt @ 1.98

ha shit

In fact there's about £500k matched @ 1.05 and less, I bet those boys a crapping themselves right now.

boooom.

Feel sorry for Stanley though

what on earth was that?

was like watching me play!!

just watched it this morning...horrible!

I just watched it again as it was all a bit of a blur when I woke up this morning. One thing it just reiterates for me is the American style of play led to his demise on that last hole. There is no way a top Euro player hits that shot to the green, it would have been a knock down low shot that eliminated the amount of spin, the US way is all yard measurements and one dimensional shot making, which is why he hits a high looper with lots of spin on it.Coz that is all he hits on almost every hole.


Was great to watch tho, in a kind of hands over your eyes and peeking thru the gaps kind of way.

The weather for the Euro event in Qatar is very very windy, will make playing difficult all week with 23-35 mph winds forecast for the first two days and 20-25 mph for the weekend.

What makes it worse is that the course is on top of a hill and usually susceptible to the Shamal winds anyway which tends to kick up the sand, mainly in the afternoons. It looks like the Thursday afternoon will be the windiest but there isn't a lot in it. Might be worth swerving it and playing in running or keeping good wind players or low ball flight players on your side.

Garcia, Mcdowell, Bjorn, Lawrie Tom Lewis, Gallagher, Goosen, Lowry, Ramsey, Warren , Maybin all in decent recent form and can play in these conditions.

Players like Kaymer and Jason Day that hit very high flights will prolly be at a disadvantage, Hunter Mahan wont know what's hit him coming from the perfectly manicured US pitch and putt events to 35mph and sand storms and if he is missing greens in the wind his woeful short game (at this level) wont rescue him. Manassero managed to get beaten in a Challenge tour event in Scotland  last season when the winds got up over the weekend too.

It looks a right mess so I am staying clear until I have seen how it is playing.



I got it slightly wrong last week, that the next three events on the US tour were on poa anna. This week we are on on Bermuda greens again, it was poa anna last week and then back on poa anna the next two weeks. If you saw the coverage last week you can really tell the difference in putting on poa anna spehly in the afternoons.

Bermuda needs warm weather to grow, Greens characterized mainly by very strong grain, and borrows and speeds always change massively from up or down grain. From TV perspective, when greens look shiny that is down grain when a darker colour against the grain. The first few events this season were on Bermuda greens too.

This track really suits players that bomb it off the tee, there is always a massive crowd there too, around 1/2 a million paying spectators last year so adapting to the crowd is also a factor, prolly suits players that have good Pro am records too as it can get a but tiresome when  every shot is greeted with a ' in the hole'. The famous par 3 16th is the noisiest hole in the world come the weekend with players cheered onto the tee and then booed off it again if they mess it up.

Bob Hope event(the Humana as it is now called) and the Renoe Taho Open might be ok indicators as they are similar desert courses.

The course has a very easy run of holes at the end of it, so its a place to make a lot of birdies. 13th and 15th are par 5 's, 17th a driveable par 4 with a little bit of water off the green to make it risk/reward. The weather forecast is for medium high winds, stronger in the afternoons with Sunday having a pretty strong wind all day. Will probably see a few 370 + yard drives on some of the down wind holes too.

One thing that can be an advantage with the pretty partisan crowds that turn up is locality. Loads of tour players reside in Scottsdale,

Scottsdale residents are, Aaron Baddeley, Geoff Ogilvy,, Pat Perez, Tim Herron, Martin Laird,Scott Piercy,Billy Mayfair, Jeff Quinney, Chez Reavie, Kevin Streelman and Bubba Watson.

Players that went to college at Arizona State are

Phil Mickelson,.Purdy.

 Mayfair, Reavie, Streelman and Perez also went to college in Scottsdale as well as living there now so they will get a little extra encouragement from the crowds.

There is one player I really am against this week and If I can find him in match bet or spread bet I might post it up later.

good luck us.









.

Never a bad time to see Tiger Wood's hole in one on the 16th hole in 1997( must turn up the volume for maximum effect)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zJHVTcnGzcI

Not trying to be pick holes in your analyis bobby (great write up) and I know jack about it, but think the greens in US are bent grass this week?!

"Bermudagrass; perennial ryegrass; fine fescue (tees, fairways, rough, greens); Poa trivialis; Velvet bentgrass (greens)"

Taken from PGA site

Could be dandelines and clovers for the all the good it will do me :)



Think the head of the market is even more tightly priced than usual this week in the US so looking further down the list.. Backed Tringale @ 100/1 and Tommy 2 Gloves @ 200/1 both ew

Also backed Paul Lawrie ew @ 50/1 in qatar, seems overpriced?!   Said after his 2nd place to quiros that he was practicing harder now than he ever has done, and seems to be paying off... former winner also, sounds like its going to be carnage though!

Hi mate, I think Lawrie is always a good shout in the wind.

Let me check that grass strain again mate, I got Bermuda on the course report but there are some courses that use different grass on the fairways and greens.

Dabbled on Charley Hoffman @250 and my man Tringale @150(only partially matched as some bugger must've tipped him) in the US event. I'm loving this 20/1 the field as a punterer. Got another shorter-priced pick as yet unmatched.

Mmm I have reread the course report I have and it does say Bermuda.

The reason I am not sure it would be Bent grass is that strain doesn't tend to grow in the winter and is therefore used in the most northern courses from Spring to Autumn only.

The difference could be that here in the desert the temp might be warm enough all year round for it to survive but there is a touch of frost in the forecast for the morning so I am not sure it will have been hot enough for it to grow.

I backed Tringale last night, and agonised whether to take 150 on bf, or 100/1 ew with the books... I dont usually trade,  just embrace the variance and go with it (rarely in my favour lol) but 50% better price for the win got me thinking i'm givining up quite a bit... anyone got any thoughts, also situations where you get say 50/1 paying 6 places, and 66/1 paying 5... is the extra place worth it? I normally take the bigger price, but last week took 6 places with mol despite a marginally lesser price, mistake?

fair enough mate, didn't base my decisions on it so wont come looking for you :)

In that first example I would deffo take the 150, the reason for this is I would look to trade some of it back if he was in contention and I thought the price was right. So I am using the trade back when in contention as my 'place' insurance at the bigger price. The way that falls down is if your guy comes from the clouds to nick a place late on but at 50 points bigger I think you have to take that win only. The bonus of doing this tho Is that you can take some profit when he is in contention and if he falls out of the places then you have made a bit too

In the second example I don't think there is much in it.

yeah felt like i should be taking the bf price, probs start to look at that when there is such a big difference, ta

I forgot to add too, if you are not taking the ew bet, you can have twice as much on the win price instead. So if you were going to have 20 quid ew at 100, you are probably better off having the 40 quid on win at 150. Then if you do trade some back you have more to play with to 'earn' some of your place bet returns and of course you still win that amount even if he isn't placed.

I rang the course T Mar and spoke to a lovely Lisa in the Maintenance and groundsman department. She said the greens were Bermuda with an over seed of bent grass rye to protect it. I guess that's what the description you had means.

(Bermudagrass; perennial ryegrass; fine fescue (tees, fairways, rough, greens);Poa trivialis; Velvet bentgrass (greens)")

She said she would mail me the exact description and explanation but it hasn't arrived, she must have got the email addy wrong or didn't bother.

no stone left unturned :)

 :)

Haha quality, good to have your input on here again.

hi mate,

cheers. i  had forgotten how much fun it was to interact ;o)

The outright in the Euro does look too tricky. I wouldn't be surprised if the early 2morrow and late on Friday draw turned out to be the best as there has to be a chance that the second round might run into Saturday morning, which might be ok weather wise.

I have taken McDowell to beat Mahan in their 18 hole match tomorrow at evens with Spreadex fixed odds, same price with Boyles. Simply fancy this as I am taking a US Open winner that regularly plays in strong winds against a US tour player that doesn't. The tie is a loser but Spreadex actually make them both evens to win this match when McDowell is much shorter in the three ball they are playing in. I think he should be odds on even allowing for the tie.

In the US I have taken Tringale to beat JB Holmes in a match at 7/10 tie no bet, reasons in Tips for Tony thread.

Also taken Cam Villegas at 10/11 in  a match against Poulter that includes the tie with the Tote or Betfred.

Villegas is 50 odd under par for his last 6 stroke play events going back to last season. Has good form here and will love the atmosphere. Poulter has just become a new father again last Thursday and most of his tweets since then talk about how hectic it has been. He was practising with Rubens Barrichello last week which doesn't sound like it was too serious a work out and had 2 top twenties in the first 8 months of the season on the US tour in stroke play events last year. My gut feeling is he will be under cooked and using the next few weeks to get into shape for the Accenture matchplay event, a format he excels in.

Added Harrison Frazar in US ..split stake ew @ 100/1 (6 places) and also a little on bf @ 150 - just for bobby :)

I backed him a couple of times already this year, and seems to have been ignored on back of a missed cut last time but dont see why he cant still be in good form... has some placed efforts here going back a few years also.

gla

good luck mate, I'm going to lay a few pre tourney in the US and might bet one or two at big odds.

I got some info on that rye overseed too T Mar, I know this sounds daft but its to make the greens look more green!!

The do it a little on the fairways too as the Bemuda tends to look yellow and burnt

Added Aiken @120, Willett @240, and Wood @220 to my Euro portfolio this week for small interests looking to trade out.

GL everyone.

good luck Ralph, that Wood price could be big if he comes back into form in the wind couldnt it.

Yes Phil, one of the best wind-players around when he's in the groove.

I was on him at huge(750/1 or something like) prices in The Open a couple of years ago when he bogeyed the last to miss a playoff when Watson lost to Cink. Mind you I did trade out for a decent profit but still..

I wanted him in that week too, I remember looking at the red figure I had aside Tom Watson and thinking, well he isn't going to win is he?

gulp

I threw a dart at Chris Couch in the US at an average of just over 250/1, 8th and 4th here the last two years and his scoring average here in the last 2 years was almost 3 shots better than his tour average. Although the scoring here is always low so that is a little misleading but it does at least show he likes it around here. He is out early so hopefully he can get off to a good start

Laid around 15 players in the outright that I thought looked a little short and will play it in running later.

Tom Gills @ 870 (following my hero off the cliff)
Chris Couch @ 230  (following the dart)

Good luck mate.

McDowell absolutely mugged Mahan there, 3 over after 6 he somehow managed to get in front halfway thru the back nine when Mahan really started to struggle in the wind. Gmac didn't get all of his drive on the par 5 18th and ended up missing from 10 feet for birdie with Mahan having hit the green in two and left it 30 feet for eagle. He managed to leave the first one 5 feet short and missed the next one for G Mac to win by 1.

Call the police!

A couple of my longshots are within hailing distance of the leaders but what a round by Gonzo in the worst of conditions.

Very pleased with Danny Willett's afternoon score of -3, and even Ollie Fisher's -2 in the morning isn't that far away.

Looooong way to go.

Taken The Lizard at varying prices from 250s to 330s.

Taken an evens match bet on The Lizard vs The Sofa.

wpwp

Tringale and esp Frazar started off well there guys, looks like the afternoon guys got a rough deal there with the frost delay in the morning, a few seemed to stumble a little late on when the light was going.

My dart was nearer to treble three than bullseye but at 5 behind its not awful.

Was annoying to see Villegas make a mess of his last 2 holes as the camber between him starting on the easy nine and finishing on the hard nine told late on. Same on the Trngale v Homles bet, where a 5 shot lead ended up two once one got onto the hard nine against the other playing the easy nine.

The Euro looks a right mess and has already been called off for the day, reduced to 54 holes and possibly greens that will have been uncut for 3 days and running at about 8-9 on the Stimp meter tomorrow unless the wind does ease up in the morning.

A little off topic, but the girl presenting golf on SS has gone daring with the skirt length!

She's no George T but def appreciate the effort!

Vwp madam

Is it the girl with the blonde hair that used to do the Setanta coverage mate?

Great stuff there T Mar, I hope both Lawrie and Frazar can bring it home for you.

I had a decent night on that US golf. Laid Levin at an average of 2.54 and Simpson at 6.0 so although I have em red at the mo I have got them in under the market and have some nice greens in behind, including your man. Should Bo van Pelt, Stanley, Crane, Crouch, Bubba or Haas get into the thick of it then that would be an added bonus.

Was a pity for the match bet that Tringale put up +4 on the easiest stretch of holes to miss the cut by 1, esp as Holmes was only tied 57th. Oh well, swings and roundabouts


That Euro sorted itself out in the end and that early first day/late second day was a big advantage in the end. Will be interesting to see next week if any of the guys that played badly in the wrong side of the draw this week are pushed out too far.

I couldn't believe how short those early starters were in the market early today when I saw the wind was still blowing, so got a few of them in the book and topped up my red on Jason Day throughout the afternoon. it became apparent that the guys in front should go further ahead and some of the better players in behind should have a chance to catch up, so he , Lynn, Larrazabal and GF Castano are the bogeys, Day the big one tho but still got a decent few quid in to play with if they do get into contention.

Would be nice to get a clean day 2morrow tho without much to sweat about.

Cheers bobby, would settle for 1 obv!!!  Def been lucky with the draw in qata...

Interesting hearing about your various positions... are you doing all that whilst the round is in play,  or do you reasses at the end of each day? Think my head would explode trying to keep on top of it in running :)

It differs slightly each week really, this week I laid a few pre game in the US and then just played it in running when it came on TV. Sometimes I might play it in play from the start if it is a big comp. The good thing about the US event this week is there has been a clear bias between the front 9 and the back 9. So I have mainly set out to get players in that went thru the back nine in a  decent score and then hit the front nine, the opposite is I have backed a few that were going only ok on the front nine but had all those easy holes on the  13-18 stretch to play.

The majority of people having a bet on the guys that are being featured on TV, so I am looking to get them in as usually they are over bet, a good example from last night, Webb Simpson made par on 14 and was waiting to tee off on 15 as there was a bit of a backlog and play had slowed up there. His price on BF went from 6.4 to 5.6 as he stood on the tee simply because he is playing a par 5 next and got a drivable par 4 to come. DJ was in the water off the tee on 15 so there is some trouble on the hole ( and it could be argued affected Simspsons price slightly) so I got him in there because he was already being bet as if he would make birdie, he hit it perfect off the tee but pulled his next shot into the water and made a 6, at 6.4 on the tee I would have left him but at 5.6 I was happy to get him in and see what happened.

I usually just lay players as I see it and let it run and see how it stands after 3 rounds and Simpson is deffo a big runner, but getting some stakes in the book gives you some ammo to play with later on if your reds are still around. I turned Levin from a winner into a loser as in the past he has struggled to win events, if he kicks on this week I will prob do my cash. As we saw last week there can be a lot of things happen in golf tourneys that you still get chance to get away from the bad results, I could take a little on both Simpson and Levin now to make em smaller losers but will see how it goes tonight, I might find a spot where I think they are value and bet them but wont bet them back yet just coz they are the worst results.

In the Euro I stayed away from the outright all week until I was 100% confident I knew what was happening and saw at about 2 am last night that the wind was still forecast to be strong early in the morning and light in the afternoon. I set my alarm for 5 to 6 and when I saw it was windy I laid the ones going back on the course then. Went back to bed and got up again for the second part of the coverage that was featuring the players in the better conditions. I ended up doing very little in that section of coverage other than lay the ones I had already got in as it became clear the players now on  the course should kick on.

The best example from there is when the leaders got thru the 12-15th and then had the driveable par 4 and the downwind par 5 left I could still lay Day at the same price he was when the leaders were going through the hard stretch of the back nine and players like Kaymer and Garcia who were lurking just behind him also had those holes left to play. He can deffo win but I have beaten the market by 5 1/2 points now on the lays before he went out and he ones after he had finished, so I am happy to see how he starts tomorrow but he is on the same score as Garcia and 1 ahead of Westy and Kaymer so there are others with good claims that are just as likely to make a surge tomorrow. So I got outs even tho he is my worse result of the weekend at the mo.

cheers for posting, really interesting stuff, respect :)

oh dear, frazar drops 2 shot in 3 holes finishing off r2... including 4ft miss on last :(

That was a blow mate but 2nd with 36 left is a nice spot.

It seems to happen very often that guys who shoot fantastic scores in really windy conditions (ie gonzo, and Willett) have completely shot their bolt and have nothing left the next day.

Not always the case though as exemplified by Oosthuizen in The Open at St. Andrew's.

Well that was pretty brutal, I kept laying Levin and he kept on doing enough to stay clear. The best thing I did all night was betting some back at 1.58 which isn't saying much.

I do at least have some good results outside him and Simpson so will just have to see what I can make of it 2morrow in a prevent defence kind of way.

Hopefully the Euro will be good to take some of the sting out of it.

Good luck with the Lawrie bet T Mar

One of the most interesting posts I have read on Blonde that bobby.  Do you do  most of your work on how you expect the course to play in advance of the tournament?  I have often thought that a good understanding of a course is probably the key to in running betting on golf but outside of the majors I have never really looked at it in any detail.  When you tlk about players being on TV being overbet is that in the sense that the inn running punters on Betfair are more likely to be backing the players being followed by the cameras ie. a player near the top of the leaderboard but not being shown on TV would be overpriced just by virtue of the fact the punters aren't thinking about them as such?  For years on SPOTY I would simply lay whomever was on screen at that time ie. when they did the motorracing section I would give the puunters time to come on and back Hamilton then I would lay him at, say, 1.57 whene he had been 1.72 all week.  I found I could easily lay a 120-130% book just doing that.  Never thought about it with live sport before but suppose golf is ideal for that.

Hi mate, tx

Ideally If I was playing pre tournament in volume It would be because I knew that say one side of the draw was certain to be favoured by the conditions. Once I know the set up and the weather I would try to narrow down a list of 'withs' and 'against' then check the market to see if I thought they were lays or bets, 80% of the time I am just looking to lay, as with over 120 odd runners almost every week you get plenty of runners on your side that you don't actually have to fancy pre event.

Although good course form now has to be treated with caution a little as the info is easier to get together these days and the players prices are now reaching the stage where they are too short. Scott Piercy went off the same price this week as players he would be 3 times the price of some weeks because he has led this event at some stage in the last two years and is in good form. Kevin Na was similar.


In running you hit the nail on the head really, the card of the course is your biggest friend as players will make chances/struggle on the same holes in the same conditions. Just a quick example is the 17th in the US event this week, its a driveable par 4 that has been really soft in the first two rounds, today with the pin on a downslope at the back of the green they have been having a  hard time getting the ball to within 15 feet in two. In the first two rounds it would have been a soft par/birdie hole for everyone and has been one of the easiest holes. Today it was a par and get to the next tee kind of hole. If you can keep up with the hole averages then you know before someone is coming to a hard stretch that it might be good to get them in the book.

My best month last year was in August as there were two events that featured courses with very stiff finishes to them, the Canadian Open and the USPGA championship. I knew in advance where the tough stretch started and then set out to get players in when they hit that stretch. The PGA was perfect as it featured a set of holes that were scoreable and then a set that were really tough, you could get on and off again as you saw it because the liquidity/turnover in the majors is so much better and most people want to bet after players make birdies without fully knowing what lies ahead on the next holes.

Usually the TV coverage will cover 2-3 main high profile player groups and then show shots from other players that are important, what I find happens is when one of the main groups hits it close or makes a birdie the price will contract just a little too much. Even just running a book with a lot of players quoted you will still in general lay the ones being covered fully by the pictures. I guess it is understandable that most people watching on TV want to bet the ones they can watch the most.

As you said, in the first few rounds you will find players bang in contention not appearing at all in the TV coverage other then seeing their scores update on the scoreboards they show, their prices contract less because they don't tend to get shorter when they have a birdie chance because you don't know they have it and if the TV do show the shot it is usually up on the online scoreboards first.

Anders Hansen won the PGA at Wentworth one year and didn't have one shot shown on TV until the 71st hole as he had posted a score early on the third day after just making the cut so was in the clubhouse when the show started, then didn't feature at all in the BBC's coverage on the final day as his 3 ball was a pretty uninspiring one. All of a sudden Ross Fisher and the other guy that had a good lead fell apart and he just plodded along and birdied the last two and went on to win it in a play off.


It is exactly like your SPOTY approach really , try to build your % by laying the players at the right time in a round or getting with them at the right time and trade higher volumes of players and just run the money through the book. This week has a really elongated leaderboard in the US so very few players to get in today and trade around the possie I had, which happens now and again too. I either need to level up the red figures and accept the loss which I will probably just do or look to maybe get on and then off thoughout the 4th round to just nip the figures up a bit and if it does close up a little I can play it by ear.

cheers

 

It is deffo a factor Ralph, will be interesting to see what next week brings too as normally avoiding players that had their swings knocked around the week before is a good idea.

Tho I did realise one thing today, Jason Day hits a real high ball when playing in the States but that is probably because that's the best/only kind of shot on most US courses. In the first couple of days here I have seen him hit all kinds of knockdown shots and under the wind wristy ones which as an Aussie he will have done for most of his early career. So I had him in my mind as someone that might struggle in the wind given he way I see him play most of the time now and forgot that he would have been playing in wind for most of his life.

Good to see The Lizard on -7 and The Couch on -3. Barring a disaster my lumpy 72 hole match bet with LeKnave is looking good.

Shame Levin is so far ahead or The Lizard would still be in with a small chance for the tournament.

Good stuff T Mar, sure to be an emotional win for Lawrie.

It is a strange, how the mind works too. He has upped his game since his coach died late last year. It's almost like he has plodded along for years and then got inspired by someone else when he didn't seem to inspire himself any more.

Weeeeeeeeee

Played great there... no sign of a wobble at any point

Yes, perfect front running performance there. Congrats mate

You could lose a head in that trophy too.

All up for grabs again in the US golf now, might be worth following as an h'orderves to the Superbowl

unreal... levin blow up nice result for you though, right ? :)

Yes its turned out nice, would still prefer him beating as a few of the others are better than him still but it was looking like a chunky loss and now its going to be good.

Unless I cock it up from here on in that is ;o)

Loving that golf, Phil, amazed how far those boys drive these days. Saw a 375 yard tee shot, and on the 595 yard par 5, 38% hit the green in two!

Jeez, the game has gone mad.

What a rollercoaster week for Stanley.What price was Levein matched at?

1.17 was the lowest price he got, to be fair to Stanley he played one bad hole last week when he blew a three shot lead on the last. Levin just seemed to fall apart there, it's not the first time he has looked awful in a finish tho.

That was a big comeback for me too as the match bets went 1-2 and Levin was a nasty result going into  today so v happy with how that went.

I really think its a shame Tony that US golf has descended into that, its just a bit silly really. Everything seems to be set up to create loads of birdies because they seem to think that is all anyone wants to watch. Some of the best finishes last year were on tough courses, the PGA probably about the best, when you have to hit good proper shots to survive. Not take a driver on a par 4 and reach the green. It is creeping into the Euro courses now too, although, as this week showed the weather can counteract it more than the majority of US events.

Yeah looked like he deserved it.If I was him i'd spend the next couple of Day sitting in the Sun with my Hat off.

A good week to play golf with the weather good in both events, bar the chance of strong winds on the Sunday at both venues and maybe a bit of rain in the US on Saturday. Around 12 mph in the afternoons in Dubai for the first three rounds which isn't so bad. There could be a delay in the mornings tho as with no wind forecast here it can be a bit foggy.

In Dubai there will be a big change to the green speeds from the last two weeks as there is no real wind  in the forecast. Greens are due to be around 13 on the Stimpmeter, last week they were running at 9 on the first few days to stop the balls moving. Will be another tricky element for those that played last week to contend with, as well as having their swings blown around for a few days too

Solid ball strikers will be suited this week and good iron players, the Par Fives  are a lot kinder and are reachable by most players, which wasn’t the case last week.
The rough is light but around the greens they have let it grow much thicker this year so greens in reg will be more important than some weeks and a good short game a must if you do miss greens.

So long drivers that are great ball strikers, that like par 5's and have a quality short game should they miss a few greens.

Looks like a course that should suit McIlroy as his previous form figures here suggest and the added bonus is he didn't play last week but he is around 4/1.... boooo!!


Pebble Beach Pro Am

Back on poa anna greens again and  this looks like an event to have a bet in as Woods is in at shortish price, a few of those in behind him are either out of sorts or have great course form but are much shorter prices on the back of that than they are most weeks. It's awful to watch on TV, as they play on three different courses in the first three rounds and then all play Pebble for a second time on Sunday. The other downside is you will see a lot of Bill Murray and Kenny G/ Huey Lewis in the coverage too.

Going to have a good look tonight and see if I can find a bet.

gl us

Looks like no studying required. Each way cross Atlantic double on the good things

Yes that doesn't look like the worst bet ever. It does look similar to the week towards the end of last year where Westy lined up at Sun City and Woods was fav for the Chevron, both having fantastic course form and in good recent form. Westy blew in and Woods got there in the end. McIlroy won on the Euro tour the same week and a shed load of ew doubles and trebles copped the lot.

I thought I'd found a decent bet for Pebble and left a bet slightly bigger than the offered price on BF.

When I went back the price had shrunk by about 25% and of course I'm not on.

I reckon Chapman or Palmer's gazumped me grrr

One of the subscription tipping lines has put this up.

Every now and then I get stumped by a comp as a lot of the players I have on my course/current form list also end up on my to lay list simply because of the price.

This week could have the mother of all those with Bryce Molder, who is in great form and has been top ten here the last two years.

However, two weeks ago at Torrey, a course he doesn't have much form on but on the same poa anna greens I backed him at 160. That week Nick Watney was a solid favourite on the off at 18 on BF. Molder played well and ran 13th. Watney played well for two rounds , then came down with flu( which I haven't seen mentioned in any if this weeks previews), he faded away over the weekend and then withdrew from last weeks event to get over it.

This week on a course that Molder has finished 6th and 10th on the last two years he is 34.0 and Watney is 26. That is a 134 point difference between their prices two weeks ago and this week.When you delve into that Molder course form he actually blew two really good chances to win, a 9 on the 14th two years ago being a pretty spectacular blow up. Just to make it even more ridic, Tiger is in the field this week too.

On the same point D A Points was a 45.0 chance two weeks ago, he finished in front of Molder then and actually won this event last year , yet this week he is also a 45.0 chance. His last 5 finishes on poa anna were 5th, first( in this last year) MC 9th and 8th.

Molder has all the form indicators, both on the course and current yet his price is woeful. He also features in almost every subscription tipping line/newspaper column tips for this week too. I get the feeling most of these would have tipped him if he had been 100 or 80 or 25, simply seems to have been picked because of his course form, only the Sporting Life guy mentions his claims but is put off by the price. Molder can deffo win but at that price I have to have him on the lay list.

Others in the same boat with great course form but miles shorter than they usually are(and also tipped up in places) Perez, Mallinger and Trahan. Two weeks ago I was on Levin at 100, last week he fell apart and blew a 7 shot lead at one stage, this week with Tiger in the field he is 44.0. Nothing he did when falling apart last week would make me bet him at 44 this week but his course form is also very good.


So for bets I have ignored the overbet course form selections and taken.

Watney, has ok form on the course and is around the same price as players he is better than this week.

Zach Johnson, Doesnt have much form here, and in fact hasn't had it on his schedule the last few years. As a very religious and clean living guy he might just hate the jolly up atmosphere of the Pro am but he is in nice form, and the one thing he has going for him this week is some of the par fives on the course rotation are three shot holes. This means he is not at the disadvantage he is most weeks when the big hitters can get to all the par 5's and he cannot.

D A Points, loves the greens, loves the course, in good form and loads of PMA with the whole event. Will have Bill Murray by his side to make it fun and laid back which he said helped a lot last year.

Sean Ohair. Two top twelve finishes here, changed his swing last season so most of that form can be written off but started the season nicely and has now built a very laid back fun reputation so should enjoy the craic.

Thrown the last dart at Jimmy Walker, who was out in the last group on day 4 last year but shot 75, he has three top ten finishes in his last 4 events on poa anna too.

Tiger is obv the man to beat and some of the next few in the market have some question marks against them at the moment. I just cant bring myself to bet at 11/2 ish. I thought Jay Townsend's description of his performance on the Euro tour two weeks ago was spot on. He called his performance ' Tiger lite' as it was nice but lacked the shots. That was spot on as he did simply just hit a fade on almost every hole off the tee and then did the same to a lot of greens.

I'm going to concentrate in running on the Euro, the course  got tougher over the last two rounds last year as the course gets very firm  in the hot weather. Rory traded at under 11/8 last year but put up 74 and 75 in the last two rounds, he is by far the most solid selection but at 4/1 I would rather leave him and try to lay a few that I don't think are the right price in running.

good luck us

You write really well Phil with some pretty astute observations not only on the golf but other sports in general .

I only wish we had discussed things in greater depth when we played together in The William Hill Football Team back in The mid 90s , as we may have formulated some good punting strategy prior to The Internet Boom    :)

Yes we could have had some coups up our sleeves there mate. The only problem is you were always on the pitch and I was always holding the oranges and hoping to get ten minutes at the end.  ;)

I've had a couple of stabs/darts at the euro-event which look decent enough value to me:

Manassero @70, and FMolinari @55, both in the BF win market.

Good luck everyone.

PS

Absolutely loving the pre-tourney course reports that Bobby1 is penning, quality stuff.

tx mate, good luck with your guys.

Yeah i actually backed it- quite funny seeing what i was limited too. Skybet allowed me £22ew double after being a standout price on Tiger@ 11-2, so therefore CHOOSING to take him on, but not actually laying it. Hilarious really. If they go a generic 5-1 and dont lay then its different, but taking him on and not laying is just lol

You should of been on the pitch more  as You had a "cultured " left foot  I recall   :)

Digressing...Im going to be punting even more within the next couple of months and do have some opinions on golfers ( I rate Harrison Frazar very highly ) on certain courses so i will be seeking your opinion mate

I hope you got what you wanted somewhere else mate

I think fitness was the main issue ;o)

Yes no probs mate

Couple of small interests in Dubai for me,

Richard Green @ 150 - was so pleased when I got matched on Monday given he was like 80/1 with books only to see him available at 200 since, sigh - been close to spite going in again, but managed to hold off! Got some decent course form down the years, and played solid enough in Quatar last week

Seung Yoh Noh @ 90 -  Little bit erratic but hits it a mile, possible comparison to Quiros?! Can definately contend on a going week so thrown a dart as they say!

Backed Watney in US @ 25/1 for no other reason than I haven't had time to look properly but bobby thinks he's value :)

GLGL

Couldn't resist a further dabble on Danny Willett a player I really like @220 in Dubai.

You love Danny Willett

Didnt post picks up last week, was no good anyway.

Disappointed i was on Lawrie the week before @210s but didnt follow up a week later at 50s. Wd to the guys that did have him though.

Then had Crane in US @ 70.0 make a run at it on the Sunday when i was out for the Superbowl and checking the scores on my phone. Wasnt too fun when BH was loving showing me his phone & prices when Stanley went like 1.02. But a decent effort from Crane finishing a shot behind. Shame i wasnt on e/w though.

No huge fancies this week, especially European Tour so taken a few shots for something to rail on:

US:

Watney
Levin
D A Points
Ricky Barnes

Europe:

Kingston
Olesen
The Hoover


gl all

Very talented, very long hitter, a little bit hyper but will deffo come good eventually imo.

I've gone with Vijay in The US this week @95, he's got plenty of course form but just needs a hot week with the putter.

haha ChipRich, I didn't love showing you my phone, I absolutely adored it it pained me.

Also you forgot Chopra in America, you are on him @ 250s remember.

This, absolutely fascinating reading.

fml watney bet wasn't matched, and he's off to a flyer, puke

The Lizard isn't playing this week so I am not playing this week.

Very little difference in the course averages for the three courses in the US after round one.

Spyglass Hill 71.19 ( 0.81 under par)
Pebble Beach 71.01 (0.99 under par)
Monterrey Peninsula 68.96 (1.04 under par)

Who?

I believe he is referring to Marc 'The Lizard' Leishman

 :)

PGA Tour rookie of the year 2009. The very same.

So much for the pre tourney weather forecast. Wind and  Rain came in this afternoon and was so strong on MP that they took the scorers off the course.

Interesting comments on the 'course form' angle and prices.  Agree with you that it seems very much as though some of the tipsters would tip those with good course form irrespective of price and in the case of most of the tipsters I feel as though twenty minutes looking at the form and I could pick three out of four of their tips with eight attempts sometimes.  Feels to me a bit like years ago when the thing to do on Asian handicaps and/or NFL was to bet unders and and dogs and you could almost blindly make money and some of the 'judges' never really understood that the market changed and became more sophisticated and just kept blindly doing what they always did and ended up doing it all back.  Angles like that are only worth something if they are underrated by the odds compilers and general public and it strikes me it might almost be worth backing those at the front of the market in form that have very bad course form these days.

Have added Ryan Moore @ 65.0 after day 2 in the US.

Hopes relying on him -6, Barnes -6, and Points -5.

Sunday sweat plzzzzz

Course averages from the 2nd round. I think these need to be taken with a pinch of salt tho as the weather later in the day was much worse.

First two are par 72, MP a par 70



Spyglass played the tougher averaging 73.08 almost 2 shots harder than the1st day.

Pebble Beach 1 shot harder 72.11

Monterey Peninsula 1 shot harder 70.06.

Well Rory did what Rory seems to do a lot these days. Played great for 2 days and then when push comes to shove he was all over the place today.Kaymer has been striking the ball much worse than him this week but is currently 1 shot better off( edit: they are level)which sums them up really.

The wind is due to be up 2morrow and there are enough players near the top that are well suited by the wind, Gallagher, Bjorn ,Jamieson and Curtis to give the bigger names some trouble if it does blow hard.

I have a one man bogey in Cabrera-Bella, who is a bad result but the rest are good, he actually played very well tee to green today but had 35 putts, still in the wind fariways and greens might be good as prolly nobody will be holing much. Will see what the market is like later and might buy a bit back.

The US turned sharply last night with the late finishers getting stuck with the wind and rain that wasn't on the forecast. Mickelson somehow managed to shoot 5 under in those conditions on his back nine which was some going.

I have Dustin Johnson in the book already and have laid Charlie Wi too as he is a stack and tilt swinger and in the heat of battle I have yet to see anyone using that swing method look comfortable. Most players that switched to this in its heyday have taken a backward step and reverted to a conventional swing.

http://www.golfdigest.com/golf-instruction/2009-12/stackandtilt

My one concern is the weather might play a part again and I might have got him in early in the comp for the swing to desert him but will see how it goes tonight.

good luck us.

Yes, that's it in a nutshell. Pre Keith Elliot course form led to good value a lot of weeks as they firms were all getting the same tissue's and if you did the work you could be on players that were too big. Since he highlighted that tho, the opposite now happens.

Now every tissue over values the course form because they know that the tippers will put up the players with great course form, they do and the short price gets even shorter.

Elliott, Chapman et al put up those very selections again this week and will probably do the same next week. The Northern Trust favours a particular shot shape as a lot of the holes turn the same way, Mckelson, Kevin Na, Baddely, Couples all have brill form there. Mick, Na and Badds are in good form at the moment too so they will be shorter coz of the good form and then shorter again because of the great course form.

On the TV prices angle we mentioned Red , there was another good examples was last night. Charlie Wi was one of the only players near the top of the boad playing on the TV course at Pebble Beach. In the clubhouse at -12 and 2 shots clear he was done at between 5.4 and 5.8. :) After the round had finished and the market firmed up he is now 3 shots clear and available at 7.2.

Chapman must have the easiest tipping job around, pick the favs and whoever won there in the last couple of years.

Yes, he has almost the same selection process every week, and puts most of them up each way too so has a lot of stakes in play.

For example this week his main bet is Rory win at 4/1, with the ew stakes on the other players he tipped he will have staked 11 units. If Rory wins he will return 15 units.

Interesting post Bobby, you think McIlroy is a choker ? Suprised at that.

he is a little bit, when things aren't going his way his swing changes, gets faster and less controlled. When he learns that he can't kill any course every day he'll be even more prolific.

I wouldn't say choker as such but I don't think he wins as often as he should given how good a golfer he is and the great positions he gets in.The comparison with Kaymer really was that Rory has far more ability and plays more great shots but Kaymer gets it round in good scores even when he isn't quite on his game and has won far more tourneys than Rory.

When Rory is good He is awesome but when it's not quite there he doesn't rescue the round, He was all over the place for a while today, as Ace mentioned he was almost throwing the club at the ball at one stage.

Sky's "live" coverage from Pebble Beach is so delayed this evening it's even behind shot-tracker.

It must be lagging by several minutes, so woe-betide any in-running punters.

Well, got plenty to sweat for the second Sunday in a row.

gl bud

****!! Not only did I do a chunk in, I am going to need an extra bit of Persil in the washing up too.

Charlie Wi just 4-putted the first for a double-bogey.

Game on!

phew, at least got some wriggle room now

Obviously big Phil was just waiting for me not to bet on him to pounce...

sighhh, my 140/1 shot Ricky Barnes going to get 2nd by the looks of things. Should prob start backing em each way, Crane got 2nd last week and Barnes prob 2nd this week!  :(

good to see Phil winning tho i guess.

Isn't 6/5 Europe for the Ryder Cup a ridiculously big price?

It is amazing how that happens with Phil isn't Ralph. He does seem to just put up winning performances when he looks to be struggling, I wonder if he needed the stimulation of playing with Tiger and having his wife present to focus him. His putting was ridic good too, was like watching him 15 years ago now he is using that lovely old flat stick again, that belly putter looked so wrong in his hands.

I am glad he got there tho, I did it in in the Euro but nicked half of it back there , so it was a losing weekend but could have been worse. I abs butchered that Euro event.

Europe will certainly have the best team, so I guess its down to locality and crowd factor really. Medinah is a really good course and usually good players win the big comps there so it all looks set to suit the Euro's.

The worry for me in betting so early is that the US might simply set the course up to suit their team. The longer and wider the fairways the better their chances but if they leave it as it normally is then for me the Euro's should be favs. The one thing that could alter that is the crowds at Medinah create a lot of noise when it is full, remember the shot Garcia hit from behind the tree there in the late 90's when he ended up running and jumping to see where his shot went, the crowd noise was amazing. That stretch of holes can be really intimidating and we saw what happened at Brookline how the teams can react to a really partisan crowd.

Even Tom Lehman, who is probably one of the calmest golfers to play the game was a disgrace in the heat of battle that day, I think it could be a really tough venue to be the 'away' team. Possibly the absolute opposite of having a load of well behaved fans trudging around a field in Wales in the rain.

Very frustrating that Rich and he didn't really get short enough to play with either with Phil kicking clear. I am having the same run with Jimmy Walker, I keep backing him on poa  anna greens, he has finished in the top ten in 4 of the last 5 events but not really got into a serious winning position in 3 of those.

 He has played really well at treble figure prices in them but not quite got there. Maybe I need to just bet him to be in the top ten instead.

What was it Torrance said something like "and he calls himself a man of god?"

I appreciate all that, but 6/5 still seems way too big.

What would your prices be to 100% Phil?

Yes, that was the Brookline incident when the US players came out on the last day and encouraged the crowd to be as intimidating as possible. Lehman was walking the fairways in between shots and whipping the crowd up, I think he was playing Darren Clarke, who left it to about the 6th hole before speaking to Lehman about his antics. On one hole Lehman holed out and then started geeing the crowd up when Clarke still had to putt.

This was the precursor to the scenes on I think it was the 16th when Leonard holed from the next county to win a hole he looked like losing and the US players and some crowd ended up running around the green and over Olazabal's line.

Torrance was abs fuming and called out Lehman with his' and he calls himself a man of god' quote

yeah, Walker was 1 of the guys i considered too but decided not to bother. Agree tho, betting him to make top 10 could be the way to go.

I've just given it proper thought at 100% and as things lie at the moment I would be about

11/10 Europe
23/20 USA
16/1 the Tie

It deffo makes the 6/5 value as it stands now. In fact I cannot see how they will go off bigger than that unless the US set it up off the back tee's with no rough, even that probably won't be enough.

I think the tie is very short with the books. I have traded about 5 of these in running and you never lay it unless it gets much shorter near the end of the event. Pre tourney there just doesn't seem any value in taking their prices that it will land 14-14

Funny you should say that about the tie.

I made really good money in the early days of betty backing the tie and then laying it running on the final day.

But the market is alot more sophisticated now, and even though there were times when the tie looked a distinct possibility, the odds didn't shorten much at all.

question for you bobby... or anyone else for that matter, but following on from what you were saying about course and current form players being backed at bad / wrong prices ... Kevin Na this week seems to be obvious choice being in very good current form and 3/10/25 here in last 3 years... So only question whether price is right?

40/1 to me seems fair... and I actually thought it would be a bit shorter, given the reasons you mentioned earlier in thread...

What you reckon? Value? If not, why not, and what price does he become a bet?

thks

Hi mate.

I think this is probably the best field they have had at Riviera for ages but it is a course that generally favours players that fade the ball, and that is Na's strength for sure. He likes the poa anna too so everything is in his favour. At 46 on BF I think that is ok as there is a chance one or two of these will be sharpening their games for the matchplay next week. He is certainly playing like he is ready to win and this is a course he loves.

Interestingly Nick Faldo said on CBS on Saturday that at the end of his career he played at Pebble when his game was struggling and he decided the best way to play the course was to hit a fade on most holes. Looking at the final leader board there, Mick, Badds, Na and even Woods are all hitting that shot.

I know this might seem a little contradictory, but given the shape of the majority of the holes and the green type it is one of the comps I would stick closely to strong course form. So 46 Na looks ok to me.

(Edit)...One thing I have to add tho is that the latest forecast for day 1 is strong winds in the morning and easing considerably in the afternoon, I see Na is out early so It might be worth waiting until 2morrow and I will see if there is a change to the forecast

Weather in the US this week looks good other than strong winds on the first morning. poa anna greens again and with small greens and a fade being favoured, par fives are deffo the scoring holes,.Good length, liking the shape of the course, and this might be crucial if the forecast is the same tomorrow, a late tee time on day one.

The Euro event is pretty dire, the course has  some ridic undulations on some greens so it might pay to look at GIR stats , the rough is very light and the weather looks the same for both sides of the draw. A comp to very easily swerve and maybe have a bet in between rounds, tho I might throw some very small darts at it 2morrow.

After making a complete horlicks of the euro event last week, having only one comp of real interest this week and suffering from a sinus and ear infection I have decided to have a week off and have a few days away. It went along the lines of Geneva or Brussels simply for the reason there are good flights there from ooop north, I decided some sun might be nice instead but canary island flights aren't so good so in the end I look like going to Nottingham for the 150 at DTD!!

The Mrs thinks I am mental, as I almost booked trips to all three of the above and then told here I had changed my mind to Nottingham.

Very uninspiring card this week, I was going to give it a swerve myself but couldn't resist a dart @ 300 on Tringale.

That boy's bound to come good soon, he's probably waiting for me to leave him out so he can pounce a la big Phil.

Where is the best place to check someones stats on a specific course or tournament?

I've had a look on the PGA site but i cant see anything like that.

The easiest way on the PGA site is to select the player, then go to career. It will bring you his results for the 2012 season, if you change the year to 2011, then 2010 etc and it will give you his results for each comp he played in for each season.

Sigh, has no one created something better than that yet.

I was thinking of a site where I could type in 'Nick Watney' for example and then type in a course 'Riviera Country Club' then bish bash bosh, It would tell me how he finished in any tourneys played there, his scoring average etc etc....

Tour-tips.com does that but you have to subscribe.

Interesting site that bobby cheers for the link, have you subscribed to it yourself? Do/would you say It would be worth the money? I'm not thinking of paying for it or anything just curious to see what you make of it.


Had a few bets in the U.S this week.


Adam Scott @ 30
Bill Haas @ 65
Justin Rose @ 75/80

I have used it in the past, it's pretty basic and a skilled techie would probably shake their heads at the functionality but it is a good source for figs and back form. I think it is actually free until Feb 19th if you wanted to try it out.

good luck with your guys mate

The weather forecast for the US event has changed and its almost the opposite forecast from earlier.

Thursday 22c Sunny and Breezy Wind increasing from 12-20mph.Wind picks up from 6am onwards and peaks around 5pm. The strongest winds look to be very late in the day, so 12 mph in the morning and 20 mph late in the first round.

It might be better not to factor it in too much/ or keep an eye on the conditions in running as that's the third change to Thursday's forecast so far this week.  You would normally expect a course to play a shot harder in the afternoon anyway given the wind normally gets up then a little and the spike marks and general wear and tear are a little more pronounced on poa anna greens

Saturday looks to be the second strongest day wind wise. Other two days look fine.

Cheers for response bobby, I've backed Na along KJ who seems to have equally strong course form (if not stronger), and looking back through through recent years has had some decent results after a short break, so think overall 40/1 is pretty generous for proven winner with conditions to suit... also gone for couple of less obvious ones, Keegan Bradley and John Senden - neither of which have any course form of note, bradley only played 1 year obv, but seems to be simmering along without hitting top form yet this season, and only a matter of time before he has another big result, price seems fair.  Senden is a bit of a flyer, but is very good tee to green, and was 6th last time out, so hopefully he can build on that.

GL

good luck mate,

There really are a lot of players with good back form, some not so good recent form. So I took 2 very small bets on BV Pelt and Ryan Moore as they fell into the good course form and good recent and were bigger prices than some of the others with the same claims. Moore is the same price as boom boom which is crazy for me, obv Couples loves it here but for all the good golf he played here last year he still didn't place.

In the Euro, the intrigue got the better of me and I took some small bets on Sterne( who would carry most of these if he was fully fit and has been ok at times in the last few weeks), Gagli, who will prob win somewhere soon, so why not here.

Then at big prices Anthony Kang who shot 4 progressively better rounds in this last year and started with two good finishes on the Asian tour this year. Marc Warren, who knows how to win if he gets into contention but is a bit erratic and Prom Meesawat who came back to form on the Asian tour last year and played well in a good field when 11th at the end of last year.

All small bets tho.

Andres Romero welcome aboard son!

I almost took a shot on him too, two top tens here which is a good record for a guy that is a bit wayward at times.

gl

I may have posted before but my thinking with Romero is to back him on tougher courses than the birdie fest types, hes capable of getting very hot and surging through the field more so on a course offering up fewer birdies, when its a birdie blitz he will throw in to many fook ups to be in contention.

Note ; The above has no factual or statistical proof its just something I thought of!

good enough for me mate, I thought Sabbatini was similar too, and has the form here so added two small bets there too

My thinking aswell.  He will win eventually and it will most likely be in a weak small event so meh.

Also really enjoying reading ur posts on this thread,  ;applause;

tx mate.

good luck us!

I'm a big Sterne fan too, didn't realise he was playing here until you mentioned it.

Surely just a matter of time before he's back in the winner's enclosure, on @ 48.

On this guy with you Ralph for random interest. Managed to get £2.22ew on @ 45 with bet365. Let's do this!!!!

'Elliott, Chapman et al put up those very selections again this week and will probably do the same next week. The Northern Trust favours a particular shot shape as a lot of the holes turn the same way, Mckelson, Kevin Na, Baddely, Couples all have brill form there. Mick, Na and Badds are in good form at the moment too so they will be shorter coz of the good form and then shorter again because of the great course form.'

Chapman did actually put up those 4 this week Ace2M from the 6 he selected.

yes hopefully his back and head can stay fresh this week.

These greens must be tricky!

Bill Haas had a 20 footer that he left 9 ft short, then just now he had a 18 footer that he knocked 12 foot past.

So either he has a touch like a baby elephant or theres something funky about those greens.

It's very windy for the morning players which may have something to do with it.

Andres Romero 4 putted from 16 feet at the first so it must be bad.

Bollox to the changing weather forecast too, It changed from worst in the morning earlier in the week to worst in the afternoon yesterday. If it gets worse in the afternoon today they will prob be off the course as it seem pretty strong now.

I was all set to lay the early guys too when it looked like that would be the worse side, then just decided to not get involved when it seemed to have changed over night.

I got a bit obstinate and every time Tringale's price went back to 300 I pressed.

He now wins me £12.5K although an early trade is fairly likely should the happy circumstance arise.

GOOOOOOOOOOOO TRINGLETOES

Obv. pressed on Sterne @85 on BF after he double-bogeyed the last today. Red rag to a bull or what?

Was a good start Ralph, we all did ok there and got a runner or two to cheer on just in behind big Phil.

Got some nice sweats in th euro too, kick on Prom.

At the halfway mark Its time to say goodbye to Romero!

Scott has alot of work to do but I guess going by the last few weeks he just needs to be within 8 and he will have a sniff on the last day!

Rose and Haas are sitting nicely, shame It's big Phil thats leading, not really a bottler of the highest order.

Scott +2
Rose -2
Haas -2

It makes a change to have some nice tight leaderboards going into the last day in both events and we still have a few sweats between us.

+1, much prefer it when scoring is tight rather than birdie fest

gogogo keeeeeeegan

I just need my man to fire in something around the 59/60 mark  ::)

Good luck with Bradley mate, I got a half chance with Moore and BVP.managed to find another 200+ shot that managed a top ten in the Euro event in Meesawat. I put in two lays overnight on Betdaq at 6.0 on both he and warren and got up for the coverage at half 6, With the warren cash already matched, looking at the scores I am not sure how that happened but it was handy.

oh my word

good luck guys.

Fantastic.  Couldn't see Keegan rolling his in after Phil.

oh wow, sick.

Incred stuff.

Brilliant mate, well done. You cannot whack a good game of golf  :respect:

Unlucky T Mar, that would have been a quality double in the last few weeks.

Blame me T Mar I bet on Bradley to win the playoff.

and me, was on him earlier in the day at 7.8.

sighhhhhhhhhh.

wd winnarrs

Urgh, stop that spitting Keegan.

Yes, that was ugly wasn't it.

yeah, vile.

I missed it. Switched over after he missed the putt.

What happened?

I think BOOOOOOOOOOOOM is the word I'm looking for , get in there Bill !

I did lay a small bit as a saver but left plenty to win! Pretty happy!

What a finish! That 10th hole is an incred hole to have a play off on, I thought Haas had it in normal play, I couldn't believe the 2 of them birdied 18!

was out in liverpool all day yesterday so only just seen it... pretty sick finish, soooo close

nice pick potata, congrats!!

yes, that was an incred finish mate.

Confirmed Matchplay draw out in full today and someone on BF was a bit slow. I managed to nick the 44 and 42 Webb Simpson in the outright which I think was too big given the draw. Tho I missed the 48 and 50 Adam Scott as it disappeared before my eyes.



Provisional draw (seeded positions in brackets): In draw order.

Bobby Jones group
 
(1) Luke Donald v (64) Ernie Els
(32) Jason Dufner v (33) Peter Hanson
(16) KJ Choi v (49) Kyle Stanley
(17) Brandt Snedeker v (48) Retief Goosen

 8 Adam Scott v (57) Robert Rock
(25) Bo Van Pelt v (40) Mark Wilson
(9) Dustin Johnson v (56) Jim Furyk
(24) Thomas Bjorn v (41) Francesco Molinari

Ben Hogan group

(4) Martin Kaymer v (61) Greg Chalmers
(29) David Toms v (36) Rickie Fowler
(13) Matt Kuchar v (52) Jonathan Byrd
(20) Bubba Watson v (45) Ben Crane

(5) Steve Stricker v (60) Kevin Na
(28) Louis Oosthuizen v (37) Aaron Baddeley
(12) Graeme McDowell v (53) YE Yang
(21) Hunter Mahan v (44) Zach Johnson


Gary Player group

(2) Rory McIlroy v (63) George Coetzee
(31) KT Kim v (34) Anders Hansen
(15) Sergio Garcia v (50) Miguel Angel Jimenez
(18) Keegan Bradley v (47) Geoff Ogilvy

(7) Jason Day v (58) Rafael Cabrera-Bello
(26) Simon Dyson v (39) John Senden
(10) Charl Schwartzel v (55) Gary Woodland
(23) Ian Poulter v (42) Bae Sang-moon

Sam Snead group

(3) Lee Westwood v (62) Nicolas Colsaerts
(30) Robert Karlsson v (35) Fredrik Jacobson
(14) Nick Watney v (51) Darren Clarke
(19) Tiger Woods v (46) Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano

(6) Webb Simpson v (59) Matteo Manassero
(27) Alvaro Quiros v (38) Martin Laird
(11) Bill Haas v (54) Ryo Ishikawa
(22) Justin Rose v (43) Paul Lawrie

nice, looking forward to this. Had a quick look at the draw earlier and picked a few out, but no bets yet.

Interested to hear thoughts on chances of: Dustin, McDowell, Quiros, Dyson? And any reason shouldnt get involved.

Saying that, i might absolutely change my mind later when i have a proper look.

Anyone else got any strong fancies?

Why isn't Phil playing?

Best event of year. My brother had 2 ew bets few years ago and managed to digout both finalists!

Pinched £4 on Nick Watney @75, I liked the price and doubt he will start that big!

There's another Shallow?!?!?

Can the gambling world take it?

It is half term in the States I think, he is taking his family on vacation.

Dove Mountain? Is this tourmnament always played there?

I thought it was played at firestone? I must be mixing it up with a different comp.

Hi mate, Yes, its been here for the last 4 years.

Firestone is the course they play one of the later WGC events on, The Bridgestone Invitational.

I'm on Garcia at 22's. He is back!

Good luck all

complete minefield but great event.. 2 that caught me eye early were Oosty and Bjorn....

going to be doing a perm of the bracket winners also with a couple of mates

gl

First three days the weather looks fine, the weekend looks a right mess, very windy on Saturday, very very windy ( as in they might not play in it) on Sunday. Will post the exacts later when I can.

The current weather forecast for the week, Saturday looks tricky but Sunday looks almost unplayable if it does reach 45kmh. I remember Casey and Villegas playing a par three a few years ago when the wind was blowing so hard they took them off the course str8 after that hole. Casey conceded the hole to Villegas in 5 after both of them had failed to reach the green and gone in a pond. So if it blows as hard as forecast on Sunday it might be a Monday finish,as the semi's, 3rd place play off and final all take place on Sunday.



Wednesday 22c Wunny Winds around 10kmh
Thursday 23c Sunny Winds around 12-18kmh
Friday 23c Sunny Light winds 6-10kmh   
Saturday 24cSunny  Windy 20-30kmh   
Sunday 23c Sunny Windy 35-45kmh   


Dove Mountain is deffo a course that favours power, esp on the back nine, tho interestingly the last two winners, Donald and Poulter have both been the shortest hitters in the final yet produced immaculate short games to win.

That weather forecast is still the same,other than the wind is now slightly stronger on Saturday too.

Just one outright bet for me so far on Webb Simpson, tho I have bet Kyung Tae Kim at 6/5 to beat Anders Hansen in their first round match. I'm not even sure he is second fav in that.

If you are taking a bet in the outright and want to play each way then you are probably better off splitting your bets into a win bet and a top 4 bet on Betfair as most firms are 1/4 the first four which is pretty rigid for the place part.

Just for example, Mcilroy is top price 12/1 with the books, at a quarter the odds the first four it makes him 3/1 to be in the top 4 fixed odds, yet you can bet bigger for the win on BF and there is plenty of almost 4/1 for him to finish in the top 4 on BF too. Some of the others will be the same.

Like watching the matchplay so I've done Day, Simpson and Rock for micro stakes.

good luck mate

4 matched so far, more to come...


Charl Schwartzel @42
Justin Rose @75
Nick Watney @75
Steve Stricker @46

Good luck y'all.

Adam Scott @36
Ben Crane @80
KT Kim @180
Anders Hansen @170
Kyle Stanley @ 55

Should be interesting to see how I run in this crapshoot!

Dustin @ 36
Bradley @ 50
Mcdowell @ 60
Crane @ 80
Quiros @ 85
Dyson 130

Hopefully get some sort of sweat, rly enjoyed this last year even though i did tez. Expecting the same to happen again, ha.

Rickie Fowler @ 75 is my sole selection so far this week.

It's Go Time as the great man would say.

You could put a line through a lot of the field this week without much thought and most of them are at the top end of the betting. I think there are some great bets in the bigger prices this week.

Big hitters and natural draw are out. If the wind gets up as Bobby predicts then thats going to offer more lines through.

Tiger has the right shot shape now but i can't back him because of his flat stick woes and his tendency to play a bit too safe at the moment.

Donald fits all the requirements perfectly

Longer price picks -
Manassero
Lawrie
Molinari
Jimenez (i can't understand his price against garcia in the opening match so have punted that to)
McDowell (don't really want to but his game fits, his heads not right imo)
Laird

My top 3 picks -
Donald
Manasarro
Lawrie (great match play and wind player)

good luck everyone.

absolute lol at the Player bracket

No doubt he'll win it all if i write this but i would have him down as one to too very much ignore in this tourney and the price v toms in the first round looks about right to me.

Gl Gl to all the golf punters this week.

The crab and I did a points based selection thing and swapped 50% which gave us this book, slightly tilted as i don't fancy Rickie at all lol

Some of these are going to clash pretty early as well so its fairly lol

Rickie Fowler
£23,016.00

Matteo Manassero
£18,742.60

Jason Day
£17,952.12

Dustin Johnson
£12,198.48

Brandt Snedeker
£10,888.34

Kyle Stanley
£10,549.00

Graeme McDowell
£9,590.00

Nick Watney
£8,151.50

Webb Simpson
£2,877.00

Aaron Baddeley
£2,397.50

Martin Kaymer
£2,339.96

Tiger Woods
£1,366.58

Keegan Bradley
£767.20

Rory McIlroy
-£1,000.00

THE FIELD
-£4000

Looks like random button clicking to me

Ha, incred book.

Added Day too! Let's gooooo

We broke the draw into 1/8s- then did a 4,3,2,1* bet- Day was 4* for me and 3* for Demps- one of only 2 players we agreed on

Got to love the WGC.....shambolic start for me, a stable of 8 including Dustin (gg), Webb Simpson, Justin Rose.

fol's

Deeeeejay

boom Dustin, good comeback. Need Day to do same.

No good from Bjorn, had chance to win on 18 aswell.. Louis through though...

Shesh, was on Jason Day to win at with 3 down with 3 to play I manage to lay it off for a small loss only for him to finally decide to win some holes.  Sudden death now!

Could do with Tiger winning this match

Day is a quality player, finds a way to make a score and loves the pressure. I don't fancy him fo this tourney but i reckon he's a fine shout for a major this year. Anyone want to lay a price on im to win any of the majors?

Hansen and Kim are playing each other that was to gaurantee me a man in the 2nd round!

Scott is the one I'm gutted about, he chucked that match away.

Yes I had Scott too.  Great comeback by Dustin.

I am left with...

Dustin 38
Watney 52
Westwood 23
Garcia 23

Scott, Quiros, Simpson, Rose dead

sigh

Yes sigh Ricky, but other than hat I was thinking not a bad day for you two - if Ricky had held you'd have been very happy.

He did shoot -4 which would have won against practically anyone.

Please dont state facts, Flushy just likes the results!

He lost, therefore i done bad

lets goooooooo, Day, Dustin, Manassero, Bradley

2 nice fades there

By my reckoning out of the 32 matches played the higher ranked players won 17 and lost 15.

Proof if any was needed that the format is a big leveller and medium to long odds players was the way to go.

Feels like a fairly decent  opening round of deal or no deal

Everybody bar Donald who played inexpicably badly and McDowell who i wish i'd never put in anyway. Got 3 Match bets up so freerolling from now.

Unfortuantely half my picks will be wiped out because they are playing each other, but it also gives me a very strong chance of getting someone to at least the semi's.

Match bets today -
Karlsson to bt Westwood
Watney to bt Woods
YE Yang  to bt Mahan
Molinari to bt DeeJay

Some nice starts for a few in the outright's. Mine fell at the first hurdle.

Looks a tricky card today after, I half fancy a few but nowt strongly. Hanson to best Els and Ishikawa to beat Lawrie at the price were ok, will prob have a small bet on each.

Anyone fancy owt?

Quite like Kaymer to beat Toms

I fancy the exact opposite of your picks :)

Lol, you are in good form mate so i will have a little less on than the small bets i was going to have.

There were three players, all new fathers that have started the season poorly, donald, rose and poulter. I'm not sure the lawrie and els firm is worth as much as it looks on paper.but i might be wrong.

The new father thing is bizzarely consistent, see ross fisher as a prime example.

Not massivley into the Els bet i rate Hanson, but really like the Lawrie bet, but i've backed him ouright so i would.

YE to beat Mahan - NAP

good luck mate, just small ishi and hanson for me

looks like i'll need it,  mahan being -4 through 7  was't part of plan :(

Wishing I had followed my inclination to have a small bet on Oosthuizen now.

If only for the opportunity to remind tikay about the "One Hit Wonder" he labelled him as after he won The Open.

thank fook i was only on for small stakes interest.

Charl Schwartzel @42
Justin Rose @75
Nick Watney @75
Steve Stricker @46
Adam Scott @36
Ben Crane @80
KT Kim @180
Anders Hansen @170
Kyle Stanley @ 55

Schwartzel ran into an inspired Bae, my 2 winners just squeaked through.

my bets for round 3 are lee  westwood to beat nick watney , dustin johnson to beat mark wilson, rory mcllroy to beat miguel angel jimenez and hunter mayhan to beat steve stricker , this acca pays just short of 6/1 good luck all !!!! :) 

Come on Dustin! my only man left.

wind a little lighter tomorrow on the latest forecast, still to be windier on Sunday at the mo.

Charl Schwartzel @42
Justin Rose @75
Nick Watney @75
Steve Stricker @46
Adam Scott @36
Ben Crane @80
KT Kim @180
Anders Hansen @170
Kyle Stanley @ 55


Gee Gee, good luck if anyone still has runners.

Just Westwood left from original stable, did add Mcllroy at 12

Might as well just hand money over before the next event even starts...

Flushy, I was watching you on tv the other night playing PLO, good banter with Tony G !!!

How annoying in Tilly on a scale of 1-10?

lol, marv.

Lol. Flsuhy and dubai funking for someone so they only lose a grand.

Could be interesting to see the body language thru the first few holes in the Westy v Rory match after their fall out.loads of world ranking points to help towards world number one  too which just adds to the pressure.

A saw a great stat yesterday too, over the last three days the player that has been leading after 3 holes has won over 80% of the matches. So the first few holes could be crucial on many levels.

Bobby could you fill me in on their fallout, what happened?

Yea, I thought Westy and Rory were best of buddies!?!!

Mcilroy moved from the chubby chandler stable of players to the same management team that looks after graeme mcdowell which a lot if the chandler players saw as a snub after the years that chandler has put into 'brand mcilroy'. The back story to it was chandler was trying to sell part of his company and losing rory impacted on that deal as it lessened his portfolio by some distance.

Rory decided to go ahead with switching knowing it was just about the worst time he could pick in relation to chandler and the other players in the team. Westwood has looked out for and helped groom mcilroy for years and took the way it was done badly, almost personally and cut some ties with rory, including thr ultimate modern day snub of blocking him on facebook and deleting him from twitter.

What could be a factor today is that westy has been a father figure to rory, so if rory has any guilt about what he did it might add extra pressure to their game today. With westy even more determined to kind of 'put him in his place'

Warning - while you were typing a new reply has been posted. You may wish to review your post.

Just about to post about the fallout.  Bobby put it better than me :)

Who do you fancy?

If the wind is strong I would bet Westy at the current prices, will be worth waiting til it comes on TV. If its not so windy its just a no bet game to start with for me.

Fair enough Bobby! I used to see them tweet each other regularly! Bit much delteing fb and twitter

weather is very cold at the mo, no wind, but they have left the greens long as the fcast is for windy later, not sure how late tho.

Great sweat still

abs brill by Rory really, gave him a  start and still won easily. Mahan made more birdies than anyone else this week so will be a good final

Read what Rory and Westwood fell out over.

WTF business is it of Westwood who Rory chooses as his management team?

Is he really that far up Chandlers arse?

Was on Rory with 16 left and just decided to trade out....

#disgustedatblowup

Westwood and Clarke have a % of the business, I think they expected Mcilroy to treat their investment better after the input they had in his career so far. It does sound a bit like millionaires rowing over money tho, I don't think they spoke a word to each other on the course today other then the obligatory 'thats good' or 'pick it up' so it's deffo still festering.

Has Rory fallen out with Clarke too?

They seemed like really close friends in the "Clarke takes Open trophy back to Ireland" documentary.

I don't think he has, I haven't seen anything by Clarke on that subject tho. That doc was brill wasn't it.

Nobody had Mahan then?

Forget all that bobby and go find me all the info in the world about the honda classic.

Its a great field, Wilson will prob be too short after playing well this week and winning the Honda before. The initial fcast is for a lot of wind and it's a great, proper golf course. Will that do for starters ;o)

Yup have looked at Wilson already ! Probably should just auto back him in these early tournaments!

T

The field isn't that strong is it?

Aside from Westy, Woods,McIlroy I'm seeing Schwartzel and Bradley as next best.

yes, great was stretching it a bit.

Yes, Wilson loves it this time of year doesnt he.

I'm a bit sick actually, I went for lunch with a mate last Weds and gave him three that might be a bit if value in the Mayakoba and one of em just won in an 8 hole play off. I had nowt on the event in the end but he just sent me an 'oioi , my treat this week' text message.

Norrrr, just checked it now and seen it was huh! He has seemingly featured on a few leaderboards recently, i had my eye on him, thats the end of that now. What did your buddy get him at, I think I checked the other day was it like 40's or something?

30 quid was matched on Wilson at 50 I would've consider that a fair enough price , what do you fink Bobby?

There was some 40/1 Huh about earlier in the week, I think he went off 33.

Think Wilson will be around 40 or 50 ish in that field, after his win I think he has two mc and a 70th or so here. Might be that all the golf those three that reached the semis this week played will be a problem next week. 6 rounds in 5 days is a lot of golf.

As a proud Honda Legend owner/driver I feel obliged to pick a few this week.

So far I've gone for JB Holmes @100, and my man Tringale @240  with just one more as yet unmatched.

The thinnest of excuses to invest!

I read that this was the 2nd toughest course on tour last year!! Much prefer it when they play a course that is a proper test!  Had 2 bets so far.. Justin Rose @ 40/1 and Ben Crane @ 33/1, Crane price is border line I think, but got 6 places which swayed it and think he will go well.  Wanted to back Sean O Hair aswell, but missed the 80/1, whilst making up my mind.. Having a look on BF though

really tough tournament to pick a winner. Whoever has a good week with the putter really, doesnt't favour any particular kind of shot shape, needs to be a good scrambler though.

Kyle Stanley might step up for a good run with a couple of good rounds here last year, less likely to blow it this year with some more confidence.

Have added him and will pick one or 2 more but not with any great confidence.

weather is going to be very windy all week( I seem to say that every week and it never materialised last week but does look certain this week), the course is going to play tough again. I really think it's a good week for throwing a few darts at good prices but going to hold fire until I know if there is likely to be a draw bias over the first few days.

We are on to the Florida swing now so the green type changes from poa anna to bermuda greens which will probably be a negative for some of those poa anna specialist that have been in decent form on that strain over the last month or so.

GIR and hitting fairways is a must really, holing putts won't be the deciding factor it is most weeks on the US tour, a need to hit the fairways and greens will be important. If you are playing in running the 'bear trap' ending to the back nine will catch out a lot of players. Put it this way, if two players are tied at -8 towards the end of the event, with one in the clubhouse and one having four to play I reckon the guy in the house would be around 1/5, even shorter if it is very windy.

Woods is still short of top form and Rory is not at his best in strong winds so Westy might enjoy the track more than those two tho both he and Rory played a lot of golf last week.

on 7 in total...................

Bradley @32
Villegas @95
Wilson @55
Fowler @ 65/70
Romero @ 320
Moore @85
Ooosty @60

do you not think westys shit chipping puts a line through him?

Westy stiffed every chip when he played my man Watney last week

Yes its deffo one of his weak spots Ace. Tho his short game cannot be worse than
Mahan's and he got there last week.

Im not sure i fancy any of the front three at the prices but if i was going to bet westy it would be on a course the others arent going to go birdietastic on.

Added "One Hit Wonder" Oosthuizen to my portfolio @65.

:hello:

Not great with golf tips although i did get Mahan last week :) Have just looked at winning margins, and the winner to win by 1 shot is 5/2 and 11/4 with some might be worth a Quid or 2 :)

Evening Squawky!

Hope you are enjoying the Thread, Dave. Well done on Mahan.

Added Sean O'Hair@ 95

The thread is very enjoyable, always lurking around this one. :)

good stuff with Mahan Hawk.

I'm going to get stuck into the in running this week as it looks the prefect course to lay as many as possible and see how it goes.There might be a small advantage to going out early on day one and late on day two, as the wind might subside a little late on Friday.

Taken a few bits on 4 I thought might go ok at the prices Oosthuizen, O Hair who won on a similar tough course in Canada last year when -4 won, Marc Leishman who plays tough courses well and likes a bit of wind. At a big price Greg Chalmers who is another tidy golfer that is good in the wind. He seems to have gone a little under the radar for a guy that won twice in Australia just before Christmas, the Aussie open and the Aussie PGA and has improved enough to get himself into the matchplay last week, 270 was enough to tempt me.

One or two others that looked to have a nice chance but the prices looked about right were Bradley, G Mac, and Rose,who has a brill record in Florida and at this course and Ryan Palmer. I toyed with another bet on Ricky Barnes who loves playing tough courses( was -10 at one stage in the US open that Glover won but I really feel his game falls away when he has a chance to win, so it would be a bet to trade later really.

The pressure is on too as I've put Leishman to have top ten finish up on the tips for Tikay thread at 10/1and I have backed that too.

* As a side note, and I know this sounds a bit anal but Greg Chalmers actually put one of the best ever winning performances  I have seen when winning the Aussie Open in 1998 on a brutal course at I think Royal Adelaide. It played so tough that some of the par 4's played to an average of 5 at times and Chalmers was over par and in the pack after two rounds but shot under par for the weekend in a gale when the average rounds on those two days were about +4 or +5 each day. He got up to win at level par from Faldo and Appleby who had also played great weekend golf at around +1 or +2 for the weekend.

(edit, i just checked it was  Adelaide and the scores were slightly different, but it was still an amazing performance ;o)  )

good luck everyone.

3 so far

Y.E Yang Winner     @ 48    
Stephen Ames Winner @ 300    
Ryan Palmer Winner    @ 180    

good luck mate, I took a little Palmer too now, tho at shorter than you.

* just to be even more anal, that last round that Stephen Ames put up in the Benson and Hedges in 1996 in brutal winds was abs incredible too. I think it was so bad that Monty put up 80 odd that day.

Ok, I'll knock this one out of the park........

Bobby, you do like anal dont you?

lol, maybe I should have used the word anorak just to avoid confusion!

Someone please tell em they are on Tom Gillis this week

You beat me to it, I was just about to post the same thing.

1000 on BF pre tourney I think and supposed to be carrying an injury too.

I wasn't gonna post it but I was thinking about it!

Isn't it one of the shrewdies that normally backs Gillis?

yes, LeKnave and Chiprich are big fans. I hope they are on.

and just to show how much bollox I can talk Brian Harman just shattered  the course record with a 61 that included a bogey.

abs incredible round.

PGA Tour site has a pic of harman when you log on, I was convinced it was Ricky Ponting.

blimey, thats an uncanny loooky likey

lol i was thinking of shrewdies and gillis also..... come on lads, surely you're all on ?

I'm starting to get miffed already that i backed Rose the last 2 weeks and not this.

Mission accomplished, back to back bogeys!

Rose just teasing you all :)

Oooops soz for the anti-rail mate, i didn't notice that you or anyone was on him!

Big Greg is just waiting til it blows tomorrow to spring thru the field :)up

I hope the guys are on Gillis, we will have some runners in striking distance between us.

Wind is about 20mph  and should be steady this afternoon and significantly are blowing the same direction as the first 2 days. Tomorrow it looks pretty set and will be windier and vitally it is currently forecast to be blowing in the complete opposite direction as the first three days.

So those bear trap holes 15 to 17 will be brutal, the 18th will be directly into the wind instead of wind helping the first three days.

lol, just seen this.

We are NOT on Gillis obv. Backed him at huge prices like 4 times this year. Didnt get involved at all as didnt think was going to be around to rail it over the wknd. Would have almost certainly had a little on him at 1000s tho had i got involved.

oh no!

I'm on  Bradley for a smallish sweat tomorrow, I don't suppose anyone piled into Rory?

The boy looks nailed on tbf he's playing class. Hopefully that should bokk him!

Play suspended due to weather already.

they seem to playing according to shot tracker, but coverage is from yesterday.... what am i missing?!

They're back playing as far as i can see, seems to be a few birdies about , I was hoping for some brutal conditions.

Golf channel comes on TV in the US at 6 o clock our time so there are no pics until then.

Mcilroy is 1.55 on betfair. Thinking of putting my 100.80 on this as third bet of Eso's challenge.

Cant see past him tbh but fear his blow up inclination.

Went to 1.65 so fired in
Good luck me

If Tiger holes that it might be interesting

Some shot! Fair play to Rory today, putting been exceptional

HAHA I love TOMMY GILLIS!

great great effort.

A great comp, Rory was abs brill all day, every time he found a bad spot he played a gem of a shot. Tiiger's finish sets up next week brilliantly too.

Bets for Doral...

Adam Scott EW @ 40/1 (6 places)
Bill Haas EW @ 60/1
Martin Laird EW @ 90/1

Got some small stakes on BF also

Think Martin Laird is a huge EW price and is my biggest bet, he played really well in the match play I thought and already has a 2nd place this year in the opener in Hawai. He was 10th in the this comp last year and has a win in Florida at the Arnold Palmer tourny.  Seems like a great punt to me.

laird getting smashed now, must of been tipped up...  was a huge price imo

fking hell................................ I had 120 staring at me last night but said meh maybe I'll get 130, then I log on today and see him at 75 fml. He was my main pick for the week.

Did you get something on mate?

Bradley @ 44
Scott @ 46
Kuchar @ 46
Toms @ 140

Contemplating what to do with regards to Laird, I also like Donald at 30 on BF, i might have a go.

Update ;

Donald @ 30
Snedeker @ 85
Wilson @ 170

I quite like RickieF this week, grabbed some of the 50/1 ew with corals.

I'm a Fowler fanboy myself but I'm dodging him this week, I had him at @70 last week in a far weaker field, I know he backed into a decent finish  but was never in contention and I feel the price of 50 on BF is  too short. I really wanna back him but I feel I just can't! Gl anyway mate!

Great pick mate, both the sporting life guy and Keith Elliott have put Laird up, Elliiot even advised it at 100/1 and then said 80/1 was still value too.

Tigers last 9 starts at this course

10/9/5/1/1/1/2/9/9


eeek

So his caddie has a good knowledge of the course, so whos bag is he on, errrrrmmmmm oh yeah Adam Scott!

yes, good point that mate, Stevie might win again this week

Ah, that will explain the crash, never heard of elliot, is it Tindall that does the sportinglife still ?? Was 130 on bf when I was looking yesterda but  decided to wait, d'oh

Was never 100/1 with the books though, unless there was a drift with one of them

I was thinking that 66/1 would be a bet when I was was looking Sunday... so 90 was heaven

Just needs to play wel now :)

Aside from the punting its going to be great viewing this week, Rory at the top of his game, Tiger got some momentum after last week, Westy hitting form aswell... Cant wait!!!

I think the 100 was with Sportingbet so it will have lasted seconds I guess. Interestingly both those tippers have put up Schwartzel as their main selection.

I think Tindall is still the tipper on S life most weeks.

Yes licking my chops about this one from a watching and punting point of view, top class players at juicy odds, its golfing nirvana!

Schwartzel was on my list also, but priced accordingly, what do you make of the Haas price mate??? I thought he'd been overlooked by the books at bit... SJ were 70/1 briefly but I just missed that... 75 on bf seems big to me, good winner recently and 4th before that.. proved he can compete in quality fields, and has some course form to boot... i know this is a top class field, but his current form alone i would expect him to be more like 40's

I do thin k he is a little too big, he does seem to be under rated as he started out on tour with a pretty small reputation, where someone like Fowler had a big one and hasn't won an event yet, and Fowler is shorter than him again this week. Bill gets no love imo.

Elliott has also put him up this week too which prob shortened the price a little.

lol he obviously know his stuff ;)

 :)up

WGC event

Forecast for the week is mainly good highs around 28c sunny most days but cloudy and the chance of a shower on Sunday. One main feature is the strong easterly winds forecast for the first three days
Winds will be around 20mph Thursday -Saturday with gusts around 30mph Sunday although cloudier winds will switch to northerlies around 15mph.   


Course set up

Roomy off the tee with large sloping Bermuda greens, tends to suit players that draw the ball.
The fairways bunkers are not so penal, but the rough can be thick in the wrong places.
Handling the wind as always will be a key factor in Florida events.   
   
Florida residents or players with Florida connections have dominated here of late. The greens get very grainy, but with a limited field and a two tee start all players tee of within 2 hours of each other. So no real draw bais this week and with the top end of the market looking rock solid I didn't fancy much pre tourney.

One of my more painful near missed last year was  in this event with Dustin Johnson who traded short during the 4th round, I was on each way pre tourny and at 14/1 after two rounds so I have backed him again as I think its a track that suits him. The way he played the par 5 12th hole was amazing last year. 95% of the field just couldn't play it the same way

Only other bet was a small one on Bubba Watson, his form here is poor and I cannot see why, maybe he just doesn't like something about the place. He has  played really nicely all season and I've noted he hasn't holed many putts, he is 1st for driving distance and 2nd in greens in reg so far this season, if he can bring the putter back to life he could go well. I did like Bill Haas this week but missed the prices and in such a strong field I left him at the current mark.

Going to play it in running again all week so hopefully plenty of swings along the way.

gl all

They are showing an old Open Championship on Sky.

In contention is Andrés Romero, who I remember at the time looking like he had all the potential in the world. He reached 21 in the world in 2008.

Yet he has not won since then.

Any idea why not?

God knows why he hasn't pushed on , I still have backed him twice recently and he missed both cuts!, I live in hope I'll be there if he does do a win.

btw how bad is that narrator on that program

He us a bit wayward and seems to have taken his eye off the ball a little.


The worst thing he did was go to pay full time in the US coz he can comfort zone and still make millions. Jason Day did a similar thing when he first went to the US until he woke up one day and realised he was happy coz he was a millionaire, not because he had achieved a lot.

I think Romero won in Germany the week after that Open, he then nicked a comp in the US in strange circumstances when it was weather delayed and he got in the house early and I think Peter lonard was the only guy to get near him. That's his exemption sorted and a few more years of making millions without having to do much and I think that's what has stopped his rise up the ladder.He is very Gung ho too, his course management leaves a bit to be desired tho I did think for someone that makes some birdies he was an ok price in the Puerto Rico event this week.





 

I am on Tigerrrrrr, Bubba, Sergio and Donald.... Donald at 30s in massive surely? Am I missing something?

YEAH I THINK IN THE WORLD ACCENTURE MATCHPLAY A FORTNIGHT AGO HE LOST IN THE 1ST ROUND AND PLAYED VERY VERY POORLY, I THINK THIS MAY BE WHY HES 30/1 , BUT HEY HES STILL TOP 3 ISNT HE IN THE WORLD SO DEFFO WORTH A PUNT IMO !!!! :)

(http://cache.ohinternet.com/images/thumb/f/f5/CapsLock.jpg/618px-CapsLock.jpg)

course favours the big hitters. Donald will have to be at the very top of his game to win here and on recent evidence he ain't.

Plus he is a duck

 :)up well done mate. great start

lol

Have added Peter Hanson  @ 90, hes sitting at -2.

i like that to.

Just saw this now, yea solid start mate, albeit he got a bit shaky towards the end.

Cmon Stevie Williams caddy your heart out!

After last years episode Wiilliam's  is probably rehearsing his winners speech as we speak :)

Great round from Bubba bobby!!! gl at weekend :)

tx mate, was like watching a highlights package in that three ball today.

v nice, now at -8 thru 14 today and trading at about 25

nice work Scotty, between us all we got it surrounded now.

Go Bubba! Donald and woods lurking too! I was well chuffed with Sergio too until he blew up!

good luck mate, that was some blow up by Serge wasn't it, he has looked so on top of himself recently but just gave up yesterday.

Oh, wasn't me Bobby, I just followed potata in. Very happy now though.

I'm happy you're happy Scotty!

My other man Adam Scotty did well to get it together after double bogeying the 8th I think it was, should be an interesting weekend.

what we got for the masters boys? fancy a little tickle next week

I've only backed Jason Day so far 40/1. His short game is looking a bit suspect at the minute though.

To be honest mate you are prob better off waiting til the week of the event. The firms are so competitive with the BF market in the majors these days and offer good ew terms that you need to beat a price by some way at this stage to bet now imo.

Back mcilroy and woods as one of them will win it

so fkn fustrating.. nothing worse than having your pick bang in contention only to see him self destruct.. last week rose, this week scott... prefer if it they just missed the cut or something, and not put me through it lol

GL tomorrow Bobby, Hope Bubba does it for you

Yes very disappointed with Scott today, he missed a few  short ones.

I have Bradley, Hanson and Kuchar in the mix, if it wasn't for that Bubba lad I'd be almost nailed on!

You wanna chop bobby!?! :D

lol, we got some sweats between us mate. I am trying to work out how greedy to be with Watson, I feel like I should narrow the gap between the win on him and the others but from watching him play the course this week it looks like his par around here is  about 69. Will probably narrow the gap a little but keep Watson as the main result and see how it goes.

Come on Bubba, I was impressed how he came back at rose after they drew level... Bubba of old could have easily let that slip. Get the job done boi! Id also like Donald to sneak into the top 5 to make it sweet!

Good luck guys, Bubba looks like he's got this one locked.

I really ought to read my notes more often, just found one from a few weeks ago about leaving RickieF alone for a while as he's changed equipment this season.  ::)

Surely I'm not the only one thinking that Bubba has a fair chance of chucking this away tonight! A couple of errant drives and his head might go. He wouldn't be the safest closer in the world anyway.

he did get lucky in a few spots yesterday, that bounce on the first to send it sideways and leave him about 8 feet for eagle, the second shot on 12 from the rough that just stayed on the green and would have been in the water a yard to the right. Add to that the awful second shot on 16 that was saved from the water by the shotlink tower and he did have his share of favours for sure.

Oh dont I know he got lucky bobby!

That shotlink tower saving him was unreal!

Bubba is the sort of player that could romp home or fail to make the top 10 tonight IMHO. Flip a coin lol.

Have greened Keegan at 2.26 to cover all my bets, still a nice freeroll profit to play for.

eeeek whats going on??

 ;popcorn;

BuhBuh is having one of those days, he's demonic with the putter though so if he steadies up a bit he may still come again.

What was Bradleys sp?

Around 44 on BF

Tiger can still be laid for the Masters at 12 for plenty? Amazing really. Even if he makes it he ain't gonna win it.

It's all happening now, Bradley just 4 putt!, McIlroy in the mix! Bubba still there! Rose quietly going about his business.

Can I get text commentary anywhere?

Holy moly there's still a little life in Bubba!

sick ... 9ft'r to go to playoff.. what a shot!!!!

sigh, brutal bobby ul

Ffs, gutted :(

golf is abs brill, that was carnage. I was betting it for the firm and at one stage took it down coz I had on idea what was going on. Was a funny ending coz I wanted Rose for the firm most of the night and Bubba for myself. I did lay some Bubba back at 3.55 when he had the nine footer on 18 to level both results up as I thought that was too short, that made him a fraction under 4/5 to hole the putt and then evens to win the play off.

A proper gambler would have laid more but I didn't have it in me to turn the guy that was the best result all comp into the worse result at the end. Which is probably a weakness in the long run.

Well it was close but no cigar for me last week, I was a bit gutted. I ,for some strange reason thought Bradley was looking invincible at one stage and almost had the money spent in my head he was just so solid for about the first 7 holes! Then once he donked once he couldn't hit a good shot for the rest of the round, ah well it was a good sweat for the tourney with Scott going well for a while and a couple of others on the periphery.

This week is a bit of a 'after the lord mayors show' feel for me, but it would be criminal if I didn't back someone.

Jason Day @ 44

Pretty much just like the price when I see what players are on similar prices to him, he's been ok'ish so far this season, I hate the long hair look btw it looks awful IMO but I wont care a jot if he can do a win for me.

I was going to back Furyk too but his price is in reverse at the moment , will see how that pans out before I bet.Gl all.

Good luck mate, I am having a week off as the Mrs has had a hernia op and I got fatherly duties and Cheltenham to watch.

I might have a bet in between rounds if I like the look of something.

US weather

A really good forecast in terms of weather.
Sunny Dry and Warm 26-28c, with light winds from the east  around 8-12mph. So ideal scoring conditions

Euro

Returns to the Aloha golf course. Lee Westwood won in 20 under in 2007 and Thomas Levet prevailed in 16 under the next year. It’s a very short course by todays standard, at only 6800 yards long and  a par 72
There are a lot of short par fours, but with numerous dog legs, it more getting the tee shot in the middle of the fairway and accurate short irons to small greens                  
                              
The wind can get up here in the afternoon, however the forecast is set fair at around 18-20c with lightish easterly winds.

Hope that helps a little

I played Aloha a few times many years ago it's a lovely course designed by Dave Thomas near Puerto Banus.

Haven't spent much time on the golf this week, with chelts taking up my time... but stuck with Laird EW @ 50's and also small bet on Na EW @ 66/1

Pretty obvious, but I think Schwartzel looks very very solid this week, and cant see him not being in the mix, if I have a good day at chelts tomorrow I may have a look :)

good luck guys,


Did you stay at the course Ralph or was it a kind of golf tour?

I took a few in the Euro in the end for small stakes on players that might like the short tidy track.

Manassero 25.0, Bourdy 80, Horsey 120 and Kingston 120

Golf's been fantastic so far this year.  So many players are hitting their peak, and even if there not quite at their consistent best yet, they still pull out some amazing round.  Such as Sergio a couple weeks ago with his final round.  All leading upto to be a great Masters and beyond.

Gone pretty boring and obvious
Manassero, Schwartzel + a few others

yes, been superb so far, even if we don't get a sweat we still get four good days to watch almost every week.

I ran a bar in Marbella for about a year in 1980 Phil, I went on holiday originally and ended up staying after falling in love.

No bets so far this week for me, powder is otherwise occupied.

If you get a chance to write it up I would love to hear that story Ralph.

One of these days I'll tell it when I get the writing urge Phil.

I started off staying at the most exclusive hotel in the Costa Del Sol at that time, The Marbella Club.

To be continued....

If Tringale and JYS both decide to win during the week I take off from punting on golf I'm never betting on it again.  :tikay:

Thoughts on moon bae as an e/w pick for the masters?

Was that the worst ever interview conducted post round by a golf correspondent ever!? Ernie else being nterviewed minutes after missing a three footer

yes, abs appalling. To ask a guy if he had confidence he would hole a three footer is akin to saying 'youve had huge putting problems and basically you bottled it'

So earnie explain in detail how you fucked that up?

So ernie, what happened?

Er GTFO it was like two minutes ago and you saw what happened... Twat! Would have got much more kudos.

I didn't back him anyway! I did have a couple of IP bets Overton after round 1 was my best sweat , i didn't think at the time that he had a putt on 18 to get in a play off.

Was a good event looked like it was gonna be a 6 man playoff at one stage, so cant knock it from that perspective.

Bobby, I presume if it was a 6 man or even say 10 man playoff they all play together yea? Would be com to see 10 boys teeing it upon the same hole!

sigh 2nd again for me with Manny. I think they do all just tee off in the same group in a multi way play off. Somewhere in the back of my mind I seem to remember a 6 man play off years ago, I think Bobby Allenby won it.

European tour

They appear to have done away with the pro am format on the first two days.

The Golf De Palais Royale course has greens that are small and more susceptible to winds if it does blow stronger than forecast.  GIR should be beneficial


Weather is good all week with just a little stronger winds at the weekend but nothing of note in the forecast at the mo.

US

There were some pretty significant changes to the course pre the 2010(edit, it was 2009, its a sure sign you are getting old when you cannot remember what year it is) tourney so it might be that the course form before then needs to be looked at with care.

The last few years,  Accuracy off the tee is quite important. However, since the course changes, players who have been high up in GIR and particularly scrambling seem to have done well here. The course superintendent says the rough is pretty thick this year.

So scramling stats might be important, also Par Five Stats    as all four are pretty easy tho this course was ranked 8th most difficult on tour last year. Looking at last years hole stats 4 of the 6 hardest holes were the 14th 15th, 17th and 18th. The front nine was easier than the back nine.

Chance of Thundery showers on Thursday and Friday but lovely dry and sunny for the weekend, Maximums around 26-28c, forecast winds are around 10-15mph  each day, but gusts of up to 20mph.

It might be a long week for the players that took part in the Tavistock Cup yesterday and today.Those that played ok in last weeks event will have had 4 rounds last week, 2 days of Tavistock cup, the pro am here on Weds and then 4 tournament days, 11 consecutive days of golf is a long time to go without a break.

Players that played in the Tavistock Cup that line up here.

Tiger Woods
Justin Rose
Bo Van Pelt
Bubba Watson
Graeme McDowell
Ernie Els
Sean O Hair
Charles Howell
Gary Woodland
Bobby Allenby
Thomas Bjorn
Ian Poulter
Trevor Immelman
Tim Clark
Daniel Chopra


good luck everyone



                       

A couple of longshots for me this week at Bay Hill:

Vijay Singh @260, and JB.Holmes @290.

gl Ralph.

Cheers Phil.

It looks like the wind on Friday afternoon will be the strongest of the week in the Euro event, forecast now to be 20mph on Thursday afternoon and up to 35 mph on Friday afternoon.

I t might be an advantage to have a late Thursday/ early Friday tee time.

Ive taken a  bet on Manassero again in the Euro, he did nothing too wrong last week and was beaten by a guy that went birdietastic in round 4. Had a smaller bet on Bourdy who might have a poor draw but seems in good form.

and just to sound like a broken record I have bet Bubba Watson again in the US event, same reasons as his last event, that hitting fairways and GIR will be important and taking advantage of the par 5 's before the tough holes will be important. Have to hope he finishes better if in contention than he did last time tho.

 Bubba is first in driving distance and first in GIR at the moment on the US tour, tho he is way down the list in driving accuracy he must be playing well to be hitting more greens than any one else so far. The sporting life guy also pointed out he has been 1st and 3rd after 54 holes here in 2 previous visits and he has yet to finish outside the top 18 in an event this season.

Only small bets but summat to get the ball rolling

3 bets in the U.S this week...............

David Toms @ 80
Nick Watney @ 40

And a small tickle on Romero @ 330

Good Luck lads.

I've added Mark Wilson @100 and Cameron Tringale(don't dare leave him out) @240 to Singh and JBHolmes.

That completes my four musketeers for Bay Hill.

I'm giving the Euro-event a miss this week, well until I decide otherwise.

GL everyone unless you're in a play-off with one of mine.

Only bet of the week is Bubb EW @ 33's.... could be a man on a mission this week after the blowup at doral

GL us bobby

good luck everyone.

Standard Romero round, gets to -4 after 7 then sinks like a stone to finish +1.

it was some fall back that wasn't it mate, he just seems to lose the plot whnn it starts to go wrong these days.

Going to have to give some serious thought not trusting the mid week weather forecasts in some of these events, I look like getting stitched  up in this Euro event with the wind being stronger much earlier in the day than forecast and the late starters today might finish their 2nd rounds tomorrow instead of playing in the bad wind today.

might need to use my run good card here to avoid one of the bad results.

62 from McDowell!!!!

He holed out from the fairway on the last according to shottracker, thats the way to finish a round.

lol insta changed when I posted, make that a 63! Still superb round.

Sick round, would love to see him win

Sigh..Manny traded under 7/4 for the second week running but couldn't finish the job off, which was a  pity. Bubba nicked a bit of place money tho T Mar, v expensive 4 putt early on Saturday seemed to knock the wind from his sails.

I was imprerssed by the way Poulter's game seems to have come around and he might follow the Rose and Donald in winning a tourney after getting used to having a new child, nappy factor and all that.

One thing struck me too, I think that Micheal Hoey has now won 3 times on the Euro tour, and all three victories were just after a different Irish golfer had just won, inspiration by comparison maybe?

Tiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiger

Looked great hitting all those fades down some of his favourite fairways didn't he, going to be interesting at Augusta where a draw is deffo the favoured shape tho.

Good to see the guy win again tho.

PP are paying the top 6 at 1/4 the odds for this weeks U.S event if anyone is interested.

Cheers Sweet, im on holiday this week so all my gear is at home, im happy to throw a few darts if anyone fancies owt tho.

Looks super tough this week, ladbrokes are top 6 as well i think

My only bet this week is on Caroline Hedwall ew @ 40/1 in the Kraft-Nabisco.

Surely that's too big for Europe's biggest emerging talent, even if she hasn't too much experience of that course.

Cheers Ralph, I've had a little to cheer on.

good luck, did you see DOI had finished at the weekend?

I missed all of the prices this year and you didn't appear to be that keen on anything so I never played.

Did I miss another winner?

Meh, I dont fancy much in the states this week, but I am compelled to have a bet , 2 boring choices!

Charl Schwartzel @ 27
Aaron Baddeley @ 38

Good Luck Y'all

I had forgotten the final was last Sunday, those two ran 1st and 2nd, which was very nice of them!

Howdy Golf Fans... Only a week to go to the Masters!!!!  Cant wait..

Had couple of small punts in each event this week...

Goya EW @ 80/1 and 110 on BF
S Hansen EW @ 70/1 and 100 BF

Stenson EW @ 40/1 and 65 on BF
NOH EW @ 125/1 and 130 BF

GL

ON

Oops, wrong thread.

GL

i shall be having a relatively big bet on Justin Rose to be top englishman at the masters.

I rate him on current form, with a game that suits augusta and a decent record there, that he should be only marginally behind Donald/westwood in the betting.

Paddy power go 7/2 currently but hoping someone will go up bigger next week.

Tommy 2 gloves Gainey FTW this week.

Not sure what was going on but he was 125/1 when 2 off the lead yesterday mid round, he came into form about the same time last year.

2 missed cuts, lovely stuff, I didn't want to use up my run good before the Masters!