Tips for Tikay

[hector62]

Not a bet suggestion but I found this interesting. Looking at total points in the Toronto basketball match that TL900 put a suggestion for. All the British bookies are going for 201 points bar Stan James are 202.5. Pinnacle on the other hand are 199.5. There is a good bet there somewhere but I have no idea what it is.

[tikay]

Not a bet suggestion but I found this interesting. Looking at total points in the Toronto basketball match that TL900 put a suggestion for. All the British bookies are going for 201 points bar Stan James are 202.5. Pinnacle on the other hand are 199.5. There is a good bet there somewhere but I have no idea what it is.

True, but all the 201 Is 10/11, whereas the Pinnacle 199.5 is 5/6.

I don't know how to equate or compare those two prices, but they must be near identical.

[Dubai]

Obvious bet would be to go unders with Stan James. Almost certainly is a wrong spread if they priced it as a "pick em"

[tikay]

Obvious bet would be to go unders with Stan James. Almost certainly is a wrong spread if they priced it as a "pick em"

Oddschecker is wrong, Stan James line is 201. I already checked.

Ooh, in before Dubs for once.

[TheDazzler]

I know as a Newbie I should mind my Ps and , but week in week out the general wisdom is that we have no edge in Premiership games, yet it seems the majority of recent losses have come from.....you guessed it, percieved value bets on Premiership football.

Need I say more?

I think you're right that there isn't much edge but I don't think Fred has had many bets recently on the Prem. We didn't have any at the weekend, or did we?
We have one on WH vs Pool for this weekend but that was cos there was clear value due to the market not reacting to the Suarez suspension yet.
In fact I have no opinion on that game and only put it up as the price was clearly wrong. I would be quite happy to lock up the small profit by greening out.

Anyway, speaking of pursuing small edges in Prem games, Wigan have had Figueroa sent off tonight. Caldwell has also seen a 5th yellow card and both of these players will now miss their next game which is at home to QPR.
QPR are best priced 12/5 for that game. I don't think I would see that as value myself but if anybody else did, those 2 suspensions (to an already stretched backline) just made it even better. And the market hasn't reacted yet.

[BigAdz]

I know as a Newbie I should mind my Ps and , but week in week out the general wisdom is that we have no edge in Premiership games, yet it seems the majority of recent losses have come from.....you guessed it, percieved value bets on Premiership football.

Need I say more?

I think you're right that there isn't much edge but I don't think Fred has had many bets recently on the Prem. We didn't have any at the weekend, or did we?
We have one on WH vs Pool for this weekend but that was cos there was clear value due to the market not reacting to the Suarez suspension yet.
In fact I have no opinion on that game and only put it up as the price was clearly wrong. I would be quite happy to lock up the small profit by greening out.

Anyway, speaking of pursuing small edges in Prem games, Wigan have had Figueroa sent off tonight. Caldwell has also seen a 5th yellow card and both of these players will now miss their next game which is at home to QPR.
QPR are best priced 12/5 for that game. I don't think I would see that as value myself but if anybody else did, those 2 suspensions (to an already stretched backline) just made it even better. And the market hasn't reacted yet.

Not sure. I thought we had some Chelsea  bets that went south? Regards QPR, they still haven't won, and even with the Harry factor I would want at least 3.5 away until they do win. Maybe people will see it almost as implied value by the fact they surely have to win soon?

[tikay]

I know as a Newbie I should mind my Ps and , but week in week out the general wisdom is that we have no edge in Premiership games, yet it seems the majority of recent losses have come from.....you guessed it, percieved value bets on Premiership football.

Need I say more?

Newbie or not, your opinion is very much valued here, & I hope you keep contributing. 

However......on this occsasion, I think you may be getting confused between bets on Premiership games recommended, (we get tons of them) & those actually placed.

In November, leaving aside two two small sub-market wagers (broke about even), we only placed two bets on Premier League game results, one won, one lost.

We have since placed a wager on West Ham v Liverpool, where we beat the market considerably, but the game is not until this weekend.

The perceived imbalance is because of two reasons.

1) Everyone knows & understands PL football, so everyone has opinions.

2) Wiser counsel than me has repeatedly drummed into us that there is rarely any value in PL games, as all the info is in the domain, & the bookies price it up pretty accurately. Hence no value, except very rarely, such as the 5/2 West Ham to beat Liverpool which has long gone.


Folks put up lots of PL bets, but we almost never do them. Bit awkward for me really, but it is near impossible for us to beat the bookies on that market, so we rarely try.


PS - Here is our November/December spready, for ease of reference.......

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=14

[tikay]

I know as a Newbie I should mind my Ps and , but week in week out the general wisdom is that we have no edge in Premiership games, yet it seems the majority of recent losses have come from.....you guessed it, percieved value bets on Premiership football.

Need I say more?

I think you're right that there isn't much edge but I don't think Fred has had many bets recently on the Prem. We didn't have any at the weekend, or did we?
We have one on WH vs Pool for this weekend but that was cos there was clear value due to the market not reacting to the Suarez suspension yet.
In fact I have no opinion on that game and only put it up as the price was clearly wrong. I would be quite happy to lock up the small profit by greening out.

Anyway, speaking of pursuing small edges in Prem games, Wigan have had Figueroa sent off tonight. Caldwell has also seen a 5th yellow card and both of these players will now miss their next game which is at home to QPR.
QPR are best priced 12/5 for that game. I don't think I would see that as value myself but if anybody else did, those 2 suspensions (to an already stretched backline) just made it even better. And the market hasn't reacted yet.

Not sure. I thought we had some Chelsea  bets that went south? Regards QPR, they still haven't won, and even with the Harry factor I would want at least 3.5 away until they do win. Maybe people will see it almost as implied value by the fact they surely have to win soon?

Yes, the Chelsea bet (lost) was one of just two PL results we bet on in November.

I am ignoring sub-market stuff, & of course the "QPR to be relegated" bet, which I think was & is value. (8/5).

[BigAdz]

My Bad!

Thought more had gone on than actually had. Probably mixing up the new thread on football with recommendations on here.

Thoroughly enjoy the thread, and betting on a far wider range of stuff than I ever imagined. Especially nice turning on the lappy in the morning and wondering why my betfair balance has increased, when I know there was no racing overnight!!

[Tal]

To be fair, BigAdz, there's a post every week containing the words "lay" and "Liverpool". It is just a race to see who posts it and how fancily it is dressed up or how thinly it is veiled.

[The Camel]

It's scary to imagine how many chances this Wigan team will create against QPR on Saturday.

We might nick a goal or two, but they will probably score 4 or 5.

I see unders are jolly in this matchup.

Can see that changing by kickoff for sure.

[TL900]

Not a bet suggestion but I found this interesting. Looking at total points in the Toronto basketball match that TL900 put a suggestion for. All the British bookies are going for 201 points bar Stan James are 202.5. Pinnacle on the other hand are 199.5. There is a good bet there somewhere but I have no idea what it is.

True, but all the 201 Is 10/11, whereas the Pinnacle 199.5 is 5/6.

I don't know how to equate or compare those two prices, but they must be near identical.

bonjour, its kinda scary that the market has come down again, I still believe the over is the far superior side maybe £44 @ O200.5?

[tikay]

^^^^^

Thanks Tom.

Why do you think the line has moved back south? Any obvious explanation?

[TL900]

Im not really sure, I can't find anything about any injuries. It doesn't seem to look AS good as I first thought though judging by the market so don't feel any pressure to back it. Although I still really do like it and im already in for a bunch so I still hope it gets there

[TightEnd]

http://m.thehindu.com/sport/cricket/atherton-boycott-barred-from-inspecting-pitch/article4161286.ece/?maneref=http%3A%2F%2Ft.co%2F1Ig4ct0z


Its rare I disagree with Hector, but I can't be having an England seamer in the top bowler market for this

Going to be a slow turner, to neutralise Monty and favour their spinners