Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

In amongst Paddy Power's novelty bets for the superbowl is a bet on the outfits chosen by the most influential band of the last 20 years.

Yes, it is strongly rumoured that the glorious Destiny's Child will be performing 3 songs in the live show at the half time interval.

It is one mirrion on that Beyonce is going to let her comrades on stage with outfits that are not coordinated.  But we have to bet on will they appear wearing the same colour.  Paddy Power have taken a big risk in setting the line at 5/6 when my mathematical model suggests the true price is around 1/2.  You will see from the attached video, that they have past form in this regard.



You actin' kinda shady
Ain't callin' me baby
Why the sudden change

My youngest has been throwing shapes on the lounge floor in anticipation, I can't wait.

Sugest £30.

Note:  It is currently unclear if Destiny's Child are really going to perform, indeed Michelle WIlliams has tried to poo poo it, but I assume that this is a NRNB market.  Unfortunately Paddy Power have described it as Paddy Power decision final.   I realise this leaves us open to shannigans by Paddy Power, but sometimes an occasion is just too important to pass by without a bet.

[tikay]

In amongst Paddy Power's novelty bets for the superbowl is a bet on the outfits chosen by the most influential band of the last 20 years.

Yes, it is strongly rumoured that the glorious Destiny's Child will be performing 3 songs in the live show at the half time interval.

It is one mirrion on that Beyonce is going to let her comrades on stage with outfits that are not coordinated.  But we have to bet on will they appear wearing the same colour.  Paddy Power have taken a big risk in setting the line at 5/6 when my mathematical model suggests the true price is around 1/2.  You will see from the attached video, that they have past form in this regard.



You actin' kinda shady
Ain't callin' me baby
Why the sudden change

My youngest has been throwing shapes on the lounge floor in anticipation, I can't wait.

Sugest £30.

Note:  It is currently unclear if Destiny's Child are really going to perform, indeed Michelle WIlliams has tried to poo poo it, but I assume that this is a NRNB market.  Unfortunately Paddy Power have described it as Paddy Power decision final.   I realise this leaves us open to shannigans by Paddy Power, but sometimes an occasion is just too important to pass by without a bet.

Ha!

Thanks Doobs.

That must be some mathematical model you have there. It spotted Eddie the Eagle though, so who are we to diss it?

We have £30 @ 5/6, Paddy Power, Destiny's Child to "wear same colours on stage".

Some confusion can be expected with this......

ON


Super Bowl Novelty Specials Destiny's Child Appearance Specials
02-02-2013 22:00
Super Bowl Novelty Specials
To wear the same colour at their first appearance on stage together @ 5/6
 
Your Bets Win
Single: To wear the same colour at their first appearance on stage together @ 5/6
1 line at £30.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £30.00
Potential returns: £55.00
No: O/23146337/0000254

 
Total stake: £30.00
Free bets voucher: £0.00
Total Cost: £30.00

[BigAdz]

Hopefully Neil left that shirts brother in open view.

Then i am sure the intruders will have taken nothing.

Go Bad Beat!

[TightEnd]

Six nations....

Maximum bet time for later in the week. (bet 1)

1. Scotland +16 10/11 http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/six-nations/england-v-scotland/handicaps

Bottom line, I don't think England are 16 points better than Scotland.

a) Scotland have chosen a team on form, with plenty of grunt up front
b) England, especially minus Tuilagi, lack creativity in the backs to pile on the points
c) The weather could be questionable
d) These always play far tighter than it would appear on paper

2 Scotland H T/England FT at 8-1

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/six-nations/england-v-scotland/half-time-full-time

Exactly the same methodology as the bet a year ago when we had England H T/Wales FT

First half tight, kicking duel, Scotland's pack keeps them in the hunt, England pull away at the end


Data

You have to go back to 2007 to find a Eng/Scot game that was settled by more than a 16 point winning margin

Since then

4 February 2012    Murrayfield, Edinburgh    6 – 13     England    2012 Six Nations Championship
1 October 2011    Auckland, New Zealand    16 – 12     England    2011 Rugby World Cup
13 March 2011    Twickenham, London    22 – 16     England    2011 Six Nations Championship
13 March 2010    Murrayfield, Edinburgh    15 – 15      draw    2010 Six Nations Championship
21 March 2009    Twickenham, London    26 – 12     England    2009 Six Nations Championship
8 March 2008            Murrayfield, Edinburgh    15 – 9     Scotland    2008 Six Nations Championship

Prior to that, Eng won very handsomely in 2007, 2005 and 2000-2003 but that was the best England team in the last 25 years that won a World Cup. No relevance to now. Since that team broke up, England have struggled to win as we can see above

16 points reflects

- Eng beat the All Blacks last time out (an All Blacks team that was ill all the week prior)
- Scotland are not in the winning habit, and under-estimated

Scotland's team:

Scotland team to play England: Stuart Hogg (Glasgow Warriors), Sean Maitland (Glasgow Warriors), Sean Lamont (Glasgow Warriors), Matt Scott (Edinburgh), Tim Visser (Edinburgh), Ruaridh Jackson (Glasgow Warriors), Greig Laidlaw (Edinburgh); Ryan Grant (Glasgow Warriors), Dougie Hall (Glasgow Warriors), Euan Murray (Worcester Warriors), Richie Gray (Sale Sharks), Jim Hamilton (Gloucester), Alasdair Strokosch (Perpignan), Kelly Brown (captain - Saracens), Johnnie Beattie (Montpellier).

Substitutes: Ross Ford (Edinburgh), Moray Low (Glasgow Warriors), Geoff Cross (Edinburgh), Alastair Kellock (Glasgow Warriors), David Denton (Edinburgh), Henry Pyrgos (Glasgow Warriors), Duncan Weir (Glasgow Warriors), Max Evans (Castres).

The Scotland back five in the pack will keep Scotland in it for longer than the consensus thinks

Personally I would have England no more than 7-10 point favourites.

[Tal]

BadBeat won't be able to tell us whether Doobs's tip is one of his bets, so we'll have to draw our own conclusions.

Win it all, sir.

[The Camel]

I was thinking that. The event is covered by PokerNews though and other people Tweet and stuff, plus it's important to mention it on Black Belt - the whole idea being the site is aspirational.

 I'm so bad at buying stuff, (my TV is about 12 years old and I've been meaning to replace it for about two years now), that it looks like they took one look and gave up. Hard to judge what has gone from here.

 It's the 3rd time I've been robbed in three years after having a good run. Hoping they didn't get the ante-pot betting slip box.

There was a twitter acct last year called "ThiefsFriend" or something that just retweeted anyone who said they were at the airport about to go on holiday, to show how thoughtless it was.

Twitter closed the acct after it got publicity, but it got the message across.

[tikay]

Tighty.

"later in the week", but place the bets now?

MAX on Bet 1, how much on Bet 2?

[TightEnd]

Tighty.

"later in the week", but place the bets now?

MAX on Bet 1, how much on Bet 2?

England have not announced their team yet. We know Tuilagi is out. I don't think the spread will rise above 16, but we have a couple of days to ponder, check with Bracknell Met Office etc .Just flagging it up.

Key numbers in rugby 3-5-7 penalty-try-converted try

So 16 is saying England are going to win by more than two scores

No sir, I doubt it.

Second bet is a £20 type bet

[tikay]

Six nations....

Maximum bet time for later in the week. (bet 1)

1. Scotland +16 10/11 http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/six-nations/england-v-scotland/handicaps

Bottom line, I don't think England are 16 points better than Scotland.

a) Scotland have chosen a team on form, with plenty of grunt up front
b) England, especially minus Tuilagi, lack creativity in the backs to pile on the points
c) The weather could be questionable
d) These always play far tighter than it would appear on paper

2 Scotland H T/England FT at 8-1

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/six-nations/england-v-scotland/half-time-full-time

Exactly the same methodology as the bet a year ago when we had England H T/Wales FT

First half tight, kicking duel, Scotland's pack keeps them in the hunt, England pull away at the end


Data

You have to go back to 2007 to find a Eng/Scot game that was settled by more than a 16 point winning margin

Since then

4 February 2012    Murrayfield, Edinburgh    6 – 13     England    2012 Six Nations Championship
1 October 2011    Auckland, New Zealand    16 – 12     England    2011 Rugby World Cup
13 March 2011    Twickenham, London    22 – 16     England    2011 Six Nations Championship
13 March 2010    Murrayfield, Edinburgh    15 – 15      draw    2010 Six Nations Championship
21 March 2009    Twickenham, London    26 – 12     England    2009 Six Nations Championship
8 March 2008            Murrayfield, Edinburgh    15 – 9     Scotland    2008 Six Nations Championship

Prior to that, Eng won very handsomely in 2007, 2005 and 2000-2003 but that was the best England team in the last 25 years that won a World Cup. No relevance to now. Since that team broke up, England have struggled to win as we can see above

16 points reflects

- Eng beat the All Blacks last time out (an All Blacks team that was ill all the week prior)
- Scotland are not in the winning habit, and under-estimated

Scotland's team:

Scotland team to play England: Stuart Hogg (Glasgow Warriors), Sean Maitland (Glasgow Warriors), Sean Lamont (Glasgow Warriors), Matt Scott (Edinburgh), Tim Visser (Edinburgh), Ruaridh Jackson (Glasgow Warriors), Greig Laidlaw (Edinburgh); Ryan Grant (Glasgow Warriors), Dougie Hall (Glasgow Warriors), Euan Murray (Worcester Warriors), Richie Gray (Sale Sharks), Jim Hamilton (Gloucester), Alasdair Strokosch (Perpignan), Kelly Brown (captain - Saracens), Johnnie Beattie (Montpellier).

Substitutes: Ross Ford (Edinburgh), Moray Low (Glasgow Warriors), Geoff Cross (Edinburgh), Alastair Kellock (Glasgow Warriors), David Denton (Edinburgh), Henry Pyrgos (Glasgow Warriors), Duncan Weir (Glasgow Warriors), Max Evans (Castres).

The Scotland back five in the pack will keep Scotland in it for longer than the consensus thinks

Personally I would have England no more than 7-10 point favourites.

Thanks Rich.

Bet One ONLY is on so far.

It would be a nice start to February, & our big weekend, if that one got home.

We have £150 @ 10/11, Wm Hill, Scotland +16.

ON

02 Feb 2013 - England v Scotland - 80 Minutes Handicap

Scotland (+16.0) @ 10/11

Stake : £150.00


Estimated Returns : £286.36Transaction Reference:O/0457483/0000251/

[tikay]

Tighty.

"later in the week", but place the bets now?

MAX on Bet 1, how much on Bet 2?

England have not announced their team yet. We know Tuilagi is out. I don't think the spread will rise above 16, but we have a couple of days to ponder, check with Bracknell Met Office etc .Just flagging it up.
Key numbers in rugby 3-5-7 penalty-try-converted try

So 16 is saying England are going to win by more than two scores

No sir, I doubt it.

Second bet is a £20 type bet

FML. I'm either too slow, or too quick.

We are doomed.

[TightEnd]

No problem

Pray for rain now

[a.sparrow]

Looking at upcoming fixtures and see watford are playing mid week at bottom of the table Bristol city.  Watford are in red hot form right now, and although Bristol city got a result today I think a lot of people will be backing watford at 6/5.  I'd expect the price to fall a bit when it comes to game time. Watford are the leagues top away scorers, Bristol city are the have the leagues worst defence.

I backed watford today so obviously have a soft spot for them, fred didn't go for that bet though but went for the over 2.5 goals choice.  I think it's a little short here at 4/6 maybe, well not short but at that price it doesn't tickle my fancy.

Watford goals over 1.5 @ 5/6 I like @ bet365
Watford win at 6/5 I like @paddy power
Watford to score in both halves I like abit more at 15/8 @paddy power

Thoughts from blondes as to as to which bet if any suits fred are more than welcome.

Some decent bets there.

over 2.5 goals is 4/5 and I think that is value too, considering Watford are scoring for fun, bang in form and Bristol City can not keep a clean sheet. It is probably a max for me on Tuesday.

Price update on this, watford over 1.5 goals is now evens at corals.

watford to score in both halves bluesquare go 12/5.

Am i missing something here or are they very good value?

This was my original thought on the Watford game.  No one seemed to surprised by the prices at the time.  Unsure of current prices as I'm at work, I do know there is noire evens tho for over 1.5 Watford goals as of when I checked last night, also the Watford to win price of 6/5 wasn't around anymore.

[Bad Beat]

 I think if someone has the ability to find out my address they should be able to find out I'm out here from PokerNews, all the other people who are here etc etc.

 Anyway, I think that whole thing of changing the way you go about your life is one of the worst things about crime. I used to always walk along the road looking at Twitter and reading forums and stuff. Since my phone was grabbed from my hand in broad daylight last year I can't enjoy that pleasure so freely and now I have to either spend less time on it or do it at home instead of doing more important stuff. I have lost thousands of hours potentially because of the crime. Maybe it's better to pay for a new phone every few years and not worry so much.

 I like the rugby bet by the way.

 The Super Bowl one wasn't on my list although I think Gold or Black were the favourites for what colour Beyonce would wear with gold quite likely.

 National anthem this year is Alicia Keys and the line is about 2mins 10secs which sounds massively high. It's been set there because she has intimated she'll be doing it her way. There are no recorded Alicia Keys anthems on the net.

 

[tikay]

No problem

Pray for rain now

Outlook for Thursday to Saturday

Thursday windy, with showers or longer spells of rain, sometimes heavy and possibly thundery. Near normal temperatures. Friday spells of rain, occasionally heavy. Saturday windy, feeling cold, scattered wintry showers.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743

[tikay]

I think if someone has the ability to find out my address they should be able to find out I'm out here from PokerNews, all the other people who are here etc etc.

 Anyway, I think that whole thing of changing the way you go about your life is one of the worst things about crime. I used to always walk along the road looking at Twitter and reading forums and stuff. Since my phone was grabbed from my hand in broad daylight last year I can't enjoy that pleasure so freely and now I have to either spend less time on it or do it at home instead of doing more important stuff. I have lost thousands of hours potentially because of the crime. Maybe it's better to pay for a new phone every few years and not worry so much.

 I like the rugby bet by the way.

 The Super Bowl one wasn't on my list although I think Gold or Black were the favourites for what colour Beyonce would wear with gold quite likely.

 National anthem this year is Alicia Keys and the line is about 2mins 10secs which sounds massively high. It's been set there because she has intimated she'll be doing it her way. There are no recorded Alicia Keys anthems on the net.

 

PaddyPower had the line at 105 seconds last night, which was incredibly low.

The price, & market, on PP, lasted less than 105 seconds. Truly.