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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13331914 times)
hector62
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« Reply #8445 on: June 12, 2012, 11:40:43 AM »

I was hoping his blog would say how much his game was suited to this course, and how he was tearing it up in practice. Then we could have a real chance of a 150-1 coup. But he actually comes over as being totally confused by the course. But I do like the honesty in his writing and some of his phraseology makes me smile.
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JaffaCake
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« Reply #8446 on: June 12, 2012, 01:15:06 PM »

Thanks for the kind words on BettingOn.com, was reading their Poland v Russia preview, and have to say I came to the same conclusion as Fraser....

Poland have only won one of their previous six competitive games against Russia (including games against the former Soviet Union), losing three and drawing two, and given Russia are now unbeaten in 15 games (eight wins) you would imagine that they will be well supported at the current odds.

Also like both teams to score, both looked good going forward. Good news for your Kalashnikov bet or whatever he's called, he scored four in the first half against me playing on Xbox last night before I mysteriously disconnected
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gatso
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« Reply #8447 on: June 12, 2012, 01:37:45 PM »

Thanks for the kind words on BettingOn.com, was reading their Poland v Russia preview, and have to say I came to the same conclusion as Fraser....

Poland have only won one of their previous six competitive games against Russia (including games against the former Soviet Union), losing three and drawing two, and given Russia are now unbeaten in 15 games (eight wins) you would imagine that they will be well supported at the current odds.

Also like both teams to score, both looked good going forward. Good news for your Kalashnikov bet or whatever he's called, he scored four in the first half against me playing on Xbox last night before I mysteriously disconnected

or we could read the stats completely differently and say that since the formation of the russian federation in 1991 (thus ignoring games played against the much bigger ussr more than 20 years ago) they've played 3 times winning one each and drawing one both scoring 5 goals with the russian win being 16 years ago
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« Reply #8448 on: June 12, 2012, 01:48:43 PM »

I really, really like overs in the first game today.  Both teams need to win really so it should be fairly open and Greece have lost both of their first choice centre halves for this game.  Greece have managed to score in each of their last six games and The Czechs average 2.6 goals per game in their last 15 game so their games have goals.  I made the goals line 2.5 with overs at 5/4 so over 2.5 @ 2.58 on Betfair seems very fair to me.  Using my kelly calculator that makes this a bet of about £70 on your £3k BR.
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« Reply #8449 on: June 12, 2012, 02:13:34 PM »

Kerzakhov gets another chance for Russia apparently.
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JaffaCake
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« Reply #8450 on: June 12, 2012, 02:15:59 PM »

Thanks for the kind words on BettingOn.com, was reading their Poland v Russia preview, and have to say I came to the same conclusion as Fraser....

Poland have only won one of their previous six competitive games against Russia (including games against the former Soviet Union), losing three and drawing two, and given Russia are now unbeaten in 15 games (eight wins) you would imagine that they will be well supported at the current odds.

Also like both teams to score, both looked good going forward. Good news for your Kalashnikov bet or whatever he's called, he scored four in the first half against me playing on Xbox last night before I mysteriously disconnected

or we could read the stats completely differently and say that since the formation of the russian federation in 1991 (thus ignoring games played against the much bigger ussr more than 20 years ago) they've played 3 times winning one each and drawing one both scoring 5 goals with the russian win being 16 years ago
and the Polish win being 14 years ago? We could miss out the Russian wins if u want to, to make a point, just like u can miss out bolding the second half of the sentence, that Russia are currently unbeaten in 15 games, should u wish to make a point, do u? Happy to take Russia over Poland with u in a bet should u feel that strongly enough. If u don't feel strongly, why are u posting?
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« Reply #8451 on: June 12, 2012, 02:28:34 PM »

I don't really have a view on this Poland -Russia game but one thing I haven't seen mentioned is the Poland are at home.  At the prices as they are at the moment if Russia were at home they would be 4/6 shots or 1.26 dnb....would we be backing them at that price in Russia?  Home advantage in these tournaments is very, very important.
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« Reply #8452 on: June 12, 2012, 02:31:01 PM »

Thanks for the kind words on BettingOn.com, was reading their Poland v Russia preview, and have to say I came to the same conclusion as Fraser....

Poland have only won one of their previous six competitive games against Russia (including games against the former Soviet Union), losing three and drawing two, and given Russia are now unbeaten in 15 games (eight wins) you would imagine that they will be well supported at the current odds.

Also like both teams to score, both looked good going forward. Good news for your Kalashnikov bet or whatever he's called, he scored four in the first half against me playing on Xbox last night before I mysteriously disconnected

or we could read the stats completely differently and say that since the formation of the russian federation in 1991 (thus ignoring games played against the much bigger ussr more than 20 years ago) they've played 3 times winning one each and drawing one both scoring 5 goals with the russian win being 16 years ago
and the Polish win being 14 years ago? We could miss out the Russian wins if u want to, to make a point, just like u can miss out bolding the second half of the sentence, that Russia are currently unbeaten in 15 games, should u wish to make a point, do u? Happy to take Russia over Poland with u in a bet should u feel that strongly enough. If u don't feel strongly, why are u posting?

woooh, chill

the point is that the website that you've quoted are lazily using meaningless stats to justify their bet. seeing as we can use the exact same stats to come to completely different conclusions then we can pretty much ignore those stats when considering a bet? why would I want to take poland? russia are clearly favourites, just not for those particular reasons

what is this obsession people have with asking others why they're posting? needless aggro
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JaffaCake
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« Reply #8453 on: June 12, 2012, 02:50:03 PM »

Thanks for the kind words on BettingOn.com, was reading their Poland v Russia preview, and have to say I came to the same conclusion as Fraser....

Poland have only won one of their previous six competitive games against Russia (including games against the former Soviet Union), losing three and drawing two, and given Russia are now unbeaten in 15 games (eight wins) you would imagine that they will be well supported at the current odds.

Also like both teams to score, both looked good going forward. Good news for your Kalashnikov bet or whatever he's called, he scored four in the first half against me playing on Xbox last night before I mysteriously disconnected

or we could read the stats completely differently and say that since the formation of the russian federation in 1991 (thus ignoring games played against the much bigger ussr more than 20 years ago) they've played 3 times winning one each and drawing one both scoring 5 goals with the russian win being 16 years ago
and the Polish win being 14 years ago? We could miss out the Russian wins if u want to, to make a point, just like u can miss out bolding the second half of the sentence, that Russia are currently unbeaten in 15 games, should u wish to make a point, do u? Happy to take Russia over Poland with u in a bet should u feel that strongly enough. If u don't feel strongly, why are u posting?

woooh, chill

the point is that the website that you've quoted are lazily using meaningless stats to justify their bet. seeing as we can use the exact same stats to come to completely different conclusions then we can pretty much ignore those stats when considering a bet? why would I want to take poland? russia are clearly favourites, just not for those particular reasons

what is this obsession people have with asking others why they're posting? needless aggro
And it's your job to police my posts, criticse the content and judge the journalism quoted as 'lazy', with no conclusion to rec anything else? There's no indication u even disagree with the bet.

What completely different conclusion did u come to, u don't seem to want to bet on Poland, so not sure you've 'used the exact same stats' come to any 'completely different conclusion' have u?

Let's hope the journalist who wrote that piece doesn't see your critique of his work
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FUN4FRASER
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« Reply #8454 on: June 12, 2012, 02:51:36 PM »

Thanks for the kind words on BettingOn.com, was reading their Poland v Russia preview, and have to say I came to the same conclusion as Fraser....

Poland have only won one of their previous six competitive games against Russia (including games against the former Soviet Union), losing three and drawing two, and given Russia are now unbeaten in 15 games (eight wins) you would imagine that they will be well supported at the current odds.

Also like both teams to score, both looked good going forward. Good news for your Kalashnikov bet or whatever he's called, he scored four in the first half against me playing on Xbox last night before I mysteriously disconnected

or we could read the stats completely differently and say that since the formation of the russian federation in 1991 (thus ignoring games played against the much bigger ussr more than 20 years ago) they've played 3 times winning one each and drawing one both scoring 5 goals with the russian win being 16 years ago


Slight aggressive tone !
« Last Edit: June 12, 2012, 02:59:48 PM by FUN4FRASER » Logged
FUN4FRASER
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« Reply #8455 on: June 12, 2012, 02:51:41 PM »

Thanks for the kind words on BettingOn.com, was reading their Poland v Russia preview, and have to say I came to the same conclusion as Fraser....

[Poland have only won one of their previous six competitive games against Russia (including games against the former Soviet Union), losing three and drawing two[, and given Russia are now unbeaten in 15 games (eight wins) you would imagine that they will be well supported at the current odds.[/i]

Also like both teams to score, both looked good going forward. Good news for your Kalashnikov bet or whatever he's called, he scored four in the first half against me playing on Xbox last night before I mysteriously disconnected
]or we could read the stats completely differently and say that since the formation of the russian federation in 1991 (thus ignoring games played against the much bigger ussr more than 20 years ago) they've played 3 times winning one each and drawing one both scoring 5 goals with the russian win being 16 years ago


and the Polish win being 14 years ago? We could miss out the Russian wins if u want to, to make a point, just like u can miss out bolding the second half of the sentence, that Russia are currently unbeaten in 15 games, should u wish to make a point, do u? Happy to take Russia over Poland with u in a bet should u feel that strongly enough. If u don't feel strongly, why are u posting?




More Agressive Tone !
« Last Edit: June 12, 2012, 03:00:37 PM by FUN4FRASER » Logged
superwomble
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« Reply #8456 on: June 12, 2012, 02:54:17 PM »

A stats-based one I've just seen for the most cards in today's Greece v Czech Republic game: Greece to receive the most cards, 4/5 at WillHill, 1.83 Betfair (Most bookings)

- In qualification, Greece received an average of 3.1 cards per game.
- In qualification, Czech Republic received an average of 1.8 cards per game.

- In their first game of Euro 2012 (v Poland), Greece received 3 yellow cards and 1 red.
- In their first game of Euro 2012 (v Russia), Czech Republic received 0 cards.

- Referee, S. Lannoy, dished out 4 yellow cards in his first game at Euro 2012 (Germany v Portugal)

4/5 appears good value to me, I've had a bit on this myself.
« Last Edit: June 12, 2012, 03:26:36 PM by superwomble » Logged

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FUN4FRASER
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« Reply #8457 on: June 12, 2012, 03:08:41 PM »

Thanks for the kind words on BettingOn.com, was reading their Poland v Russia preview, and have to say I came to the same conclusion as Fraser....

Poland have only won one of their previous six competitive games against Russia (including games against the former Soviet Union), losing three and drawing two, and given Russia are now unbeaten in 15 games (eight wins) you would imagine that they will be well supported at the current odds.

Also like both teams to score, both looked good going forward. Good news for your Kalashnikov bet or whatever he's called, he scored four in the first half against me playing on Xbox last night before I mysteriously disconnected

or we could read the stats completely differently and say that since the formation of the russian federation in 1991 (thus ignoring games played against the much bigger ussr more than 20 years ago) they've played 3 times winning one each and drawing one both scoring 5 goals with the russian win being 16 years ago
and the Polish win being 14 years ago? We could miss out the Russian wins if u want to, to make a point, just like u can miss out bolding the second half of the sentence, that Russia are currently unbeaten in 15 games, should u wish to make a point, do u? Happy to take Russia over Poland with u in a bet should u feel that strongly enough. If u don't feel strongly, why are u posting?

woooh, chill

the point is that the website that you've quoted are lazily using meaningless stats to justify their bet. seeing as we can use the exact same stats to come to completely different conclusions then we can pretty much ignore those stats when considering a bet? why would I want to take poland? russia are clearly favourites, just not for those particular reasons

what is this obsession people have with asking others why they're posting? needless aggro
And it's your job to police my posts, criticse the content and judge the journalism quoted as 'lazy', with no conclusion to rec anything else? There's no indication u even disagree with the bet.

What completely different conclusion did u come to, u don't seem to want to bet on Poland, so not sure you've 'used the exact same stats' come to any 'completely different conclusion' have u?

Let's hope the journalist who wrote that piece doesn't see your critique of his work

Jaffa....Whilst I agree Gatsos opening post came across as slightly confrontational,I just think he was registering his opinion ,however being so vociferous with your defence is a bit over the top .......so for the good of the forum probably best if you both cool it

Good Luck with the Russian Bet
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gatso
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« Reply #8458 on: June 12, 2012, 03:13:28 PM »

What completely different conclusion did u come to

that using stats on games played when most of the current players weren't born by a country that no longer exists aren't a good basis for a bet, they are meaninless. I haven't arrived at a different conclusion about the match itself as those particular stat are not a good basis for a bet either way

if you read that as policing your posts then that's down to you, it's certainly not supposed to be
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JaffaCake
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« Reply #8459 on: June 12, 2012, 04:05:37 PM »

so in answer to what different conclusion did u reach, u repeat your criticism then say u haven't reached one. Well done. Maybe u could have that argument internally and stop wasting my time.

Say I, for example, said John Smith is the plumber I use, and tell the forum where to find him. If u then come on after me, saying that my plumber is lazy, do u think he will benefit, or will that be detrimental to his work? U should make sure your criticism is fair if is detrimental, or brush up on your defamation/slander law, as should the publisher (forum).

If u feel extremely strongly about something, maybe it's worth criticising someone's work and be willing to argue your case. If u don't give a toss either way (and your evidence of the laziness is that the writer bothered to look up every game between the two countries, both in their current guise and before plus every game Russia have played since last losing) it's probably not worth bothering yourself with, unless u have particular axes to grind.

Going to the pub all afternoon with a real internet policeman to cheer against Greece now, good look to those backing Russia (which seems all of us)
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