Tips for Tikay

[aaron1867]

I don't like the odds on both teams to score in the Villa game at all to be honest.  My thinking is:

Prem team at home to L2 team most likely result is Prem team win to nil
Bradford will at least start with a heavy defence given that they have a 2 goal lead to protect
I don't think Bradford will be thinking about away goal - more the mentality lets get to 20 mins at 0-0.  Then half time and we've done half the job.

I'd be a layer of both teams to score at this price to be honest.

Probably should have asked you if you wanted to lay before I backed, then

Really don't see Villa keeping a clean sheet. They've managed one in the last 12 in all competitions and their biggest weakness is in the air. These kids at the back can't grow in a couple of weeks, however hard they've been working in training. West Brom were too strong in the second half.

Parkinson's been making a lot of noise about attacking, which might reasonably be taken with a pinch of salt, but I firmly believe sitting back and inviting a team with no confidence but plenty of talent forward is a recipe for disaster.

I don't see many managers coming out though and saying "we are going to defend this lead for our lives and sit so deep" do you? They don't say it, but it's what they will do.

But from what I can gather, Bradford scored the last two goals on the counter attack, so hard one to choose from

[DungBeetle]

"Probably should have asked you if you wanted to lay before I backed"

If you want a bit more I'll lay you some at 5/6 for settlement tomorrow by bank transfer

[claypole]

The Norwich Discussion.

Current best price is 7/1


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation

I am not a football expert by any means, but I don't think that particularly reps value. Happy to listen to further views though.

The current League Table is here.....


http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/tables

At 7/1 Tikay - its not a reccomedation from me; the 1 pt makes a huge difference and Ladbrokes have come more into line today.  I think it could be one that got away, as I am relaively confident they will shorten - lets be interested observers and cheer me on; I have had a decent bet

[Tal]

I don't like the odds on both teams to score in the Villa game at all to be honest.  My thinking is:

Prem team at home to L2 team most likely result is Prem team win to nil
Bradford will at least start with a heavy defence given that they have a 2 goal lead to protect
I don't think Bradford will be thinking about away goal - more the mentality lets get to 20 mins at 0-0.  Then half time and we've done half the job.

I'd be a layer of both teams to score at this price to be honest.

Probably should have asked you if you wanted to lay before I backed, then

Really don't see Villa keeping a clean sheet. They've managed one in the last 12 in all competitions and their biggest weakness is in the air. These kids at the back can't grow in a couple of weeks, however hard they've been working in training. West Brom were too strong in the second half.

Parkinson's been making a lot of noise about attacking, which might reasonably be taken with a pinch of salt, but I firmly believe sitting back and inviting a team with no confidence but plenty of talent forward is a recipe for disaster.

I don't see many managers coming out though and saying "we are going to defend this lead for our lives and sit so deep" do you? They don't say it, but it's what they will do.

But from what I can gather, Bradford scored the last two goals on the counter attack, so hard one to choose from

Of course they will want to be solid. Only a complete idiot would suggest otherwise. The market says it's marginally more likely that both teams score tonight than not. I see a team desperate to get a payday no one expected (a team that cost about as much as second place in the last Iancredible Hundred) playing a team desperate to get some momentum but dropping heads as soon as things don't go their way. I'd be surprised if there were many goals in the game but I'd be more surprised if this were to finish 0-0 or 1-0.

[tikay]

The Norwich Discussion.

Current best price is 7/1


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation

I am not a football expert by any means, but I don't think that particularly reps value. Happy to listen to further views though.

The current League Table is here.....


http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/tables

At 7/1 Tikay - its not a reccomedation from me; the 1 pt makes a huge difference and Ladbrokes have come more into line today.  I think it could be one that got away, as I am relaively confident they will shorten - lets be interested observers and cheer me on; I have had a decent bet

Hope you get the lot, & Villa go down. With QPR.

[Tal]

"Probably should have asked you if you wanted to lay before I backed"

If you want a bit more I'll lay you some at 5/6 for settlement tomorrow by bank transfer

Politely declined, but thanks. BRM and all that

[Ricardov83]

What do the thread regulars think of 'Benteke anytime and Villa to win' wincast at 6/4 with William Hill?

Other firms generally go 10/11 but does the 6/4 represent value?

EDIT: I realise it's a multiple and we don't like multiples but just putting it out there.

Any views on this while the villa discussion is ongoing?

[horseplayer]

vlaar back is massive for villa

he organises them and will be nearing fitness after the weekend

i dont have the stats to hand but with him in the team they have been almost solid

[aaron1867]

vlaar back is massive for villa

he organises them and will be nearing fitness after the weekend

i dont have the stats to hand but with him in the team they have been almost solid

Earlier in the season they actually wasn't letting many in if I remember correctly.

[Tal]

vlaar back is massive for villa

he organises them and will be nearing fitness after the weekend

i dont have the stats to hand but with him in the team they have been almost solid

Earlier in the season they actually wasn't letting many in if I remember correctly.

This is relevant but he isn't match fit and they're missing Baker, who I quite like.

[Tal]

What do the thread regulars think of 'Benteke anytime and Villa to win' wincast at 6/4 with William Hill?

Other firms generally go 10/11 but does the 6/4 represent value?

EDIT: I realise it's a multiple and we don't like multiples but just putting it out there.

Any views on this while the villa discussion is ongoing?

Bit short for a multiple for an ice cream like me tbh

[horseplayer]

vlaar back is massive for villa

he organises them and will be nearing fitness after the weekend

i dont have the stats to hand but with him in the team they have been almost solid

Earlier in the season they actually wasn't letting many in if I remember correctly.

This is relevant but he isn't match fit and they're missing Baker, who I quite like.

clark and vlaar is a much better option than clark and baker imo

vlaar is not a great defender but is a very good leader and even though they conceded 2 against wba you could see him trying to exert into the other players

[ruholding]

imo villa to qualify at evns is outstanding value. i cannot see how they wont overturn the deficit.

just a point to bear in mind if it is 2-0 villa after 90 mins game goes to extra time (unlike UCL where villa would win on away goals after 90 mins - in C1C away goals count only after 120 mins)

recommendation

£50 villa to qualify to final @evs

[aaron1867]

imo villa to qualify at evns is outstanding value. i cannot see how they wont overturn the deficit.

just a point to bear in mind if it is 2-0 villa after 90 mins game goes to extra time (unlike UCL where villa would win on away goals after 90 mins - in C1C away goals count only after 120 mins)

recommendation

£50 villa to qualify to final @evs

Like this bet, but actually did not realise about the away goals until now

[TheDazzler]

vlaar back is massive for villa

he organises them and will be nearing fitness after the weekend

i dont have the stats to hand but with him in the team they have been almost solid

In the Premier League, they have conceded 24 goals in the 1220 minutes he has played (1 every ~51 mins) and conceded 20 in the 850 mins he hasn't played (1 every 42.5 mins). So that somewhat backs up your thoughts although sample size and the 8-0 match, where he didn't play, skew results somewhat.