Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

coral cut rowe to 9-2


now dangling the 6-1!

they are tackling FRED head on here

[BigAdz]

coral cut rowe to 9-2


now dangling the 6-1!

they are tackling CHOMPY head on here

FYP

[tikay]

coral cut rowe to 9-2


now dangling the 6-1!

they are tackling FRED head on here

Correct. They cut it to 9/2, then went back to 6/1.

Anyway, we are in now.

[rfgqqabc]

Doncaster play Yeovil in League 1 today. Yeovil are a team I have a soft spot for, and James Hayter is a former viking. Jamess Coppinger is 12/1 today, so i like the bet we had on the Crawley game. We have a loanee in from Everton in the hope of arresting our current form. If Yeovil hit anything bigger than 9/4 I'll  really be considering a bet

edit: Betfair came in a touch and 9/4 gone now

[ripple11]

Bury vs Doncaster this weekend.

Bury are currently 22nd in the league, and in the midst of a barren run, earning 4 points from a possible 27 in their last 9.

2nd place Doncaster, who have a game in hand on the League leaders Tranmere, are best price 31/20 (14/9 with Pinny)

Looking at our rivals.

Of the current top 11, going down to Crawley, Swindon still have to play 7 of them away from home. They have yet to beat anyone in the top 10 away. Their goal difference has come from spanking poor teams at home, their away form is patchy to say the least.

Tranmere face 3 easy games then they have a home tie to Swindon on the 19th of Feb.

In contrast to Tranmere, Doncaster play Walsall (12th), MK (10th) and Crawley (11th). All these teams have an outside shot of playoffs and are in good form.  We have only 4 of the current top 12 to play away from home. Of the 7 we have played, we have won 4 drawn two and lost to Yeovil. We always lose to bloody Yeovil.

As an aside our Home/Away form reads, Home w7 d2 l5, Away w10 d3 l1.

Crawley vs Swindon is the 5:20 kickoff at the weekend, SS2

you appear to have missed bournemouth sir

love the signing of matt Ritchie from swindon yet more firepower

Great signing.

Boy is it tight at the top.Just had a look at oddschecker and 7 teams are odds on to finish in the top 6..... and between 5/6 and 3/1 to get promoted.

 Amazingly Yeovil are just 3 pts behind the top 6 and are 10/1 to finish in the top 6, and 25/1 to be promoted!

Yes Yeovil flying atm.....now 3/7 top 6 and 3/1 to be promoted.

I should have had a tickle......

[adnmdv]

coral cut rowe to 9-2


now dangling the 6-1!

they are tackling FRED head on here

Is left back. I'd be happily laying 6/1 all day tbf from left back.

Problem with kelly is that you need to have a good estimation of the probability which, whilst it is very good habit to get into is a lot of work and might frighten off some of Fred's posters.

Isn't having a good estimation of probability a bit of a prerequisite?

[tikay]

If he is now lining up as left back today, that would explain why Corals went 6/1 - 9/2 - 6/1.

[BigAdz]

coral cut rowe to 9-2


now dangling the 6-1!

they are tackling FRED head on here

Is left back. I'd be happily laying 6/1 all day tbf from left back.

Problem with kelly is that you need to have a good estimation of the probability which, whilst it is very good habit to get into is a lot of work and might frighten off some of Fred's posters.

Isn't having a good estimation of probability a bit of a prerequisite?

I cant believe Chompy would bandy words like MAX BET about with no inside insight into team selection

[redarmi]

Problem with kelly is that you need to have a good estimation of the probability which, whilst it is very good habit to get into is a lot of work and might frighten off some of Fred's posters.

Isn't having a good estimation of probability a bit of a prerequisite?

Yeah of course but there are a fair few posters here that are good enough to understand the concept naturally without neccesarily doing the actual maths and coming out with probabilities.  Tighty would be a good example and forcing posters like him or Keith to come up with a price would add to their work.  I use Kelly a fair amount and price up ost things I bet but sometimes you just know something is value and having a predefined bet size isn't a bad thing so long as that isn't more than, say 2%, of BR I think.  Of course there is an optimal approach and that is probably a percentage of kelly but even then the proportion of kelly you are willing to bet is a somewhat subjective thing and full kelly is way too risky imo especially for Fred when some posters may be -EV

[tikay]

Golf nightmare.

Two rounds are scheduled for today, but play is not currently possible due to frost.

This could end up a right mess. Shame, we are in such good shape.

[tikay]

The final part of reds post nails it.

We cannot reasonably expect the diversity of posters we have here to have an understanding of Kelly, and I do not want to alienate them.

I need to try to strike a balance, by keeping Fred profitable, being as inclusive as possible, and keeping some fun, banter and humour.

[tikay]

In the Rugby, hector, in his preview, described Rome as "sunnyish".......

Hmm......

Perhaps he mean's "watery sunshine".

[rfgqqabc]

Bolton lead Hull 3-0.

Madden continues good form with Yeovil. Curses.

[Tal]

I know my place





I do find the Kelly stuff interesting. I know I don't have the discipline because I don't make enough bets or of enough size to make the difference really count.



As for this...



I have a hard time when backing a Ruby/Nicholls horse focusing on the binary growth exponent. Call it a leak.

[Tal]

This is not TV rugby right now. Pouring down with rain, no one can hold the ball, everyone's kicking and it's all horrible.