Tips for Tikay

[Dubai]

Maldini if the prices should be the other way round Kelly suggests we should have 38% of our whole roll on. So £1900 if we got 5k. If we half it to play conservatively then just call it £950 Tikay

Yes please! Doubt he would stick a grand on tho.

Hyderbad 1.8

Delhi 2.2

In my world.

•According to the Kelly criterion your optimal bet is about 28.33% of your capital, or $1,416.00.
•On 55% of similar occasions, you would expect to gain $2,389.50 in addition to your stake of $1,416.00 being returned.
•But on those occasions when you lose, you will lose your stake of $1,416.00.
•Your fortune will grow, on average, by about 6.5% on each bet.
•Bets have been rounded down to the nearest multiple of $1.00.
•If you do not bet exactly $1,416.00, you should bet less than $1,416.00.
•The outcome of this bet is assumed to have no relationship to any other bet you make.
•The Kelly criterion is maximally aggressive — it seeks to increase capital at the maximum rate possible. Professional gamblers typically take a less aggressive approach, and generally won't bet more than about 2.5% of their bankroll on any wager. In this case that would be $125.00.
•A common strategy (see discussion below) is to wager half the Kelly amount, which in this case would be $708.00.
•If your estimated probability of 55% is too high, you will bet too much and lose over time. Make sure you are using a conservative (low) estimate.
 

[Doobs]

Aftertiming Alert

Some bets for The Masters were put up after I logged off last night, & I'd earlier said I would not be able to action them.

In fact, I DID get the Doobsy stuff on late this morning (from the Car Park of Watford Gap Services....) , but only for very small money indeed, I got heavily restricted by Paddy Power. For the three EW Bets, (22/1, 70/1 & 70/1) my total staked was, incredibly, only £8.

I was also kindly worded by Mr Channing that Ladbrokes were going 16/1 Mickelson until Noon, & I got some of that, too, £20 EW @ 16/1.

I did NOT place the proposed bet by Sharky, as there had been much poo-pooing of it, but welcome aboard Sharky, please hang around, & I'm pretty sure we will soon be making love. We seem to have gained a lot of new, insighful, regulars, the more the better imo, so thank you.

As to those Bets I placed this morning, I'm not sure it would be compliant for Fred to confirm they are on AFTER the Event has started, so unless it is agreed otherwise, I'll keep them for myself. I'll re-affirm our Masters Book a bit later, so we can better keep track of all the money we will win.

Bumped for Doobsy.

The Post was made at about 6pm last night.

Stewards Inquiry Incoming.

I have the BetSlips of course, currently "off-thread", but the bets were placed around 11am yesterday morning, & I could not get on blonde to state that at the time. It makes no difference to me either way, financially.

should be on thread. you placed them from Doobs' tip pre-event, and confirmed as soon as you could

(might as well throw some more wood on the April bonfire....)

Have been busy so didn't read last night's post well.  I don't think we can have gained much here.  If the total bet is £8 and two horses are a bit shorter and one is a lot bigger then out equity is only going to be a quid or so from £8 anyway.  This assumes we haven't got £3.50 e/w on one and 20p e/w on the others.

Tighty is independent so go with him.

[BigAdz]

Does all this Kelly stuff work on a bet at a time basis?

Seems to me that if you whack 50% on one opportunity, and another comes along a few mins later, before that one has concluded etc. You are then betting 50% of a much smaller bank. If this happens in quick succession, you can end up with some very small numbers on oppo 5, if you get my drift.

Or am I talking the usual bollix that I do?

[Dubai]

Well you are looking at it in a negative way obviously. You could have said we end up with a massive bet on opportunity number 5 but that would be being positive

I like the half Kelly betting recommendation when we KNOW the price something should be. Ie if we were getting 5/4 about heads for example id say we always should have our max 5%, which dependant on our roll should be £250 if its 5k

[Dubai]

"Note that although the Kelly Criterion provides an upper bound on the amount that should be risked, there are sound arguments for risking less. In particular, the Kelly fraction assumes an infinitely long sequence of wagers — but in the long run we are all dead. It can be shown that a Kelly bettor has a 1/3 chance of halving a bankroll before doubling it, and that you have a 1/n chance or reducing your bankroll to 1/n at some point in the future. For comparison, a “half kelly” bettor only has a 1/9 chance of halving their bankroll before doubling it"

[adnmdv]

Does all this Kelly stuff work on a bet at a time basis?

Seems to me that if you whack 50% on one opportunity, and another comes along a few mins later, before that one has concluded etc. You are then betting 50% of a much smaller bank. If this happens in quick succession, you can end up with some very small numbers on oppo 5, if you get my drift.

Or am I talking the usual bollix that I do?

No you are right. You absolutely must adjust Kelly if you're making simultaneous bets otherwise you're massively overstaking on everything which is disastrous.

edit: oh no, I misunderstood your post. I guess you're asking whether it's bad if you're making sequential bets...Dubai is correct I think. Not sure that optimal staking in the case of sequential wagers has been solved overall though when they're happening in quick succession (they might have to be treated as simultaneous).

[Dubai]

Er well as you dont have the same bankroll id assume thats given..........

[Dubai]

Obviously bankroll becomes harder to judge with longterm bets placed where we can get a grasp of our "midpoint" ev in spreadterms and go from there. Or can just deduct all bets placed as losers on bankroll, which seems a bit nitty

[bobby1]

Does anyone have a little concern about today's cricket match, I've spoken to 3 people today who have said exactly the same as thread guys re the prices. Tho 2 of them also said 'looks iffy to me'

[Dubai]

Well the money for Delhi is relentless and it is the IPL. So be careful id say

[Dubai]

If we have 5k and place a max bet of 250@5/4 about an evens chance.

What do people think we should treat our roll as... if the exact same opportunity comes up on another market whilst the other bet is still waiting to happen?

a) £5031
b) £5000
c) £4875
d) £4750

[BigAdz]

Well you are looking at it in a negative way obviously. You could have said we end up with a massive bet on opportunity number 5 but that would be being positive

I like the half Kelly betting recommendation when we KNOW the price something should be. Ie if we were getting 5/4 about heads for example id say we always should have our max 5%, which dependant on our roll should be £250 if its 5k

Not being negative, just trying to understand. Sure there was a post about putting 18% of roll on something earlier. It dont take a lot to confuse me where the math is concerned, but defo not being negative(many times in the past most of my bankroll has gone on single punts!)

[Eso Kral]

If we have 5k and place a max bet of 250@5/4 about an evens chance.

What do people think we should treat our roll as... if the exact same opportunity comes up on another market whilst the other bet is still waiting to happen?

a) £5031
b) £5000
c) £4875
d) £4750

Go on then I will go first but knowing nothing about Kelly and being an Ice Cream would say it should be £5000 as the first wager has neither won or lost yet?

[Dubai]

Nah theres no definite answer, its just peoples way of thinking. I can see an argument for all 4 of the above numbers, i know how id treat our roll but can see how people could suggest each of the answers as being correct

[adnmdv]

Instinctively, would suspect a) is the way you'd maximise growth, though I haven't crunched the numbers.