Tips for Tikay

[redarmi]

We didn't introduce Kelly largely because it is too much to ask posters to come up with a probability estimate for every recommendation but it is the best approach to staking and is instructive in these spots.  If it is a true 1/7 shot then full kelly would be 320.  There are a lot of reasons not to use full kelly but Kelly in itself is aggressive so I think any staking over and above full Kelly is excessive.  Obviously in terms of what is actually placed I don't care but from an educational and theoretical perspective I don't think it is great practise.  That is before we start thinking about time value of money which is important in spots like this and much underrated especially when working off, and trying to grow, a betting bank.

[tikay]

Get ready...

£100 on J Wonder, 11-4 Lads, 2.55 Newmarket tomorrow.

Reasoning to follow.

Now 2/1 with Ladbrokes.

Have held off, pending further instructions.

[tikay]

Get ready...

£100 on J Wonder, 11-4 Lads, 2.55 Newmarket tomorrow.

Reasoning to follow.

Now 2/1 with Ladbrokes.

Have held off, pending further instructions.

The price is tumbling everywhere, as low as 6/4, best now is 9/4 with BetFred and Totesport.

[tikay]

Tikay will you be around for fred duty at around 2.15pm tommorow?

Thanks

Sure will Mr Horse.

I am toying with the idea of going down to Brighton tomorrow to play their £200 2 day thing, but it does not start until 5pm, so if I do go, it will not be until after 3pm. I need to find a way to win £350 to fund my betting habit, too.

Good point

I have a real banzai for a season long sweat (potentially) but i need confirmation said player is at least starting the first game of the season first

We will be on standby to plunge.

[tikay]

Evening Mr T.

Tonight's super league sees Wigan entertaining Hull KR. Wigan should win comfortably and so I have been looking at the Wigan players for a decent try scorer bet. The main players are too short for me but with Liam Farrell being rested it gives an opportunity for Chris Tuson to play a bigger role. Tuson has scored 8 tries in 16 appearances this season, a lot of them as substitute. That number makes him break even at Evens, however a number of other factors need to be factored in. Wigan are at home, and playing the team with the 5th worst defence both of which mean Wigan should score more tries than average. If we then add the fact that Tuson is going to get a lot more minutes on the field then the 9/4 we can get make him an attractive bet.

Suggest Tuson to score a try at anytime £20 @ 9/4 with Paddy Power.

Thanks H.

Did you see the proposal by kinboshi earlier? He was seeking your advice.

We got on this bet with Paddy Power at 9/4, but we got restricted to £15 I'm afraid. Your reputation precedes and all that.

Confirmation to follow, but we are.....

ON

[TightEnd]

Your patience on reports and spreadsheet this weekend please, am working (again) and things are likey to be updated at odd hours

Will catch up as I can.

[superwomble]

I’m usually loathe to bet on or tip my own team, but the handicap market for League Two appears to be underestimating us, or overestimating how far ahead other teams will be, or both.

SkyBet have Wimbledon +26 at 20/1.

WillHill have us +27 at 18/1.

Both e/w terms are ¼ odds for top 4.

Last season we were awful and only just survived. However, after replacing Terry Brown with Neal Ardley, our second half of the season saw us with near play-off form.

We finished on 53 points, 30 behind the champions and 23 behind 4th place.

Both have Burton +16. We finished 17 points behind them last season.

I’m not being stupidly optimistic about our chances this season but I think we’ll definitely be higher than last year. We have a good young manager who is implementing professional change at the club, which has been too non-league in the league so far. We have brought in experienced players as well as some exciting younger ones.

I think it will be tight with the handicaps given but I think they are too big. What do you reckon?

Didn't see any comment about this so bumping as the season starts tomorrow

[tikay]

Your patience on reports and spreadsheet this weekend please, am working (again) and things are likey to be updated at odd hours

Will catch up as I can.

Am not working this weekend Rich, want me to do the Reports until Monday?

Can't do the flowery prose, don't know no long words, but I can do the basics.

Or we could experiment with a Guest Updater for the weekend......

Just imagine a Chompy Daily Report.

Big Brother is epic, bin day is Tuesday. That what I sayed.

Or Tal could do a chess based version, with long words & everything.

[TightEnd]

Your patience on reports and spreadsheet this weekend please, am working (again) and things are likey to be updated at odd hours

Will catch up as I can.

Am not working this weekend Rich, want me to do the Reports until Monday?

Can't do the flowery prose, don't know no long words, but I can do the basics.

Or we could experiment with a Guest Updater for the weekend......

Just imagine a Chompy Daily Report.

Big Brother is epic, bin day is Tuesday. That what I sayed.

Or Tal could do a chess based version, with long words & everything.

Yes good, thanks

[hector62]

Just seen his proposal and you are right that he doesn't need my input, he is a Wigan fan and is advocating a bet on Hull KR on the handicap. It shows he has an unbiased approach. I do have palpitations though whenever I see Wigan v Hull KR after that infamous encounter/tip recommendation.

[TightEnd]

for daily report

Clarke 106 ahead of the rest half way through the Ashes in the Aussie batter market £50 at 5/2

Swann 18 wickets in 5 innings £24 at 11/2, 5 ahead of Anderson and 6 ahead of Siddle

Both looking good bets

5-0, less so

[tikay]

Just seen his proposal and you are right that he doesn't need my input, he is a Wigan fan and is advocating a bet on Hull KR on the handicap. It shows he has an unbiased approach. I do have palpitations though whenever I see Wigan v Hull KR after that infamous encounter/tip recommendation.

The memory is seared forever more.......

OK, well we shall await Kinboshi now.

I'll be busy tonight, online pokering all evening, but I can get stuff on. Multi-Tasking Mis-Clicking genius.

[tikay]

Your patience on reports and spreadsheet this weekend please, am working (again) and things are likey to be updated at odd hours

Will catch up as I can.

Am not working this weekend Rich, want me to do the Reports until Monday?

Can't do the flowery prose, don't know no long words, but I can do the basics.

Or we could experiment with a Guest Updater for the weekend......

Just imagine a Chompy Daily Report.

Big Brother is epic, bin day is Tuesday. That what I sayed.

Or Tal could do a chess based version, with long words & everything.

Yes good, thanks

OK, leave it with me, unless we get a Guest Volunteer.

[Tal]

Rumour that Tighty is going t'Eadingley to sort out the umpires. Can you offer any comment?

[Bad Beat]

 Hate to throw a cat among the pigeons but Fred bet £450 at 1/3 on Gina NOT TO WIN Big Brother and people barely batted an eyelid. Nobody even seemed to have a strong view either way.