blonde poker forum
Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
July 25, 2025, 01:09:45 PM

Login with username, password and session length
Search:     Advanced search
2262436 Posts in 66607 Topics by 16991 Members
Latest Member: nolankerwin
* Home Help Arcade Search Calendar Guidelines Login Register
+  blonde poker forum
|-+  Community Forums
| |-+  Betting Tips and Sport Discussion
| | |-+  Tips for Tikay
0 Members and 45 Guests are viewing this topic. « previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 3110 3111 3112 3113 [3114] 3115 3116 3117 3118 ... 9209 Go Down Print
Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 16465515 times)
redarmi
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 5166


View Profile
« Reply #46695 on: August 02, 2013, 05:54:20 PM »

We didn't introduce Kelly largely because it is too much to ask posters to come up with a probability estimate for every recommendation but it is the best approach to staking and is instructive in these spots.  If it is a true 1/7 shot then full kelly would be 320.  There are a lot of reasons not to use full kelly but Kelly in itself is aggressive so I think any staking over and above full Kelly is excessive.  Obviously in terms of what is actually placed I don't care but from an educational and theoretical perspective I don't think it is great practise.  That is before we start thinking about time value of money which is important in spots like this and much underrated especially when working off, and trying to grow, a betting bank.
Logged

tikay
Administrator
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: I am a geek!!



View Profile
« Reply #46696 on: August 02, 2013, 05:56:22 PM »

Get ready...

£100 on J Wonder, 11-4 Lads, 2.55 Newmarket tomorrow.

Reasoning to follow.

Now 2/1 with Ladbrokes.

Have held off, pending further instructions.
Logged

All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link - http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY (copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016).
tikay
Administrator
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: I am a geek!!



View Profile
« Reply #46697 on: August 02, 2013, 05:58:51 PM »

Get ready...

£100 on J Wonder, 11-4 Lads, 2.55 Newmarket tomorrow.

Reasoning to follow.

Now 2/1 with Ladbrokes.

Have held off, pending further instructions.

The price is tumbling everywhere, as low as 6/4, best now is 9/4 with BetFred and Totesport.
Logged

All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link - http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY (copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016).
tikay
Administrator
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: I am a geek!!



View Profile
« Reply #46698 on: August 02, 2013, 06:00:01 PM »

Tikay will you be around for fred duty at around 2.15pm tommorow?

Thanks

Sure will Mr Horse.

I am toying with the idea of going down to Brighton tomorrow to play their £200 2 day thing, but it does not start until 5pm, so if I do go, it will not be until after 3pm. I need to find a way to win £350 to fund my betting habit, too.

Good point

I have a real banzai for a season long sweat (potentially) but i need confirmation said player is at least starting the first game of the season first

We will be on standby to plunge.
Logged

All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link - http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY (copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016).
tikay
Administrator
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: I am a geek!!



View Profile
« Reply #46699 on: August 02, 2013, 06:06:11 PM »

Evening Mr T.

Tonight's super league sees Wigan entertaining Hull KR. Wigan should win comfortably and so I have been looking at the Wigan players for a decent try scorer bet. The main players are too short for me but with Liam Farrell being rested it gives an opportunity for Chris Tuson to play a bigger role. Tuson has scored 8 tries in 16 appearances this season, a lot of them as substitute. That number makes him break even at Evens, however a number of other factors need to be factored in. Wigan are at home, and playing the team with the 5th worst defence both of which mean Wigan should score more tries than average. If we then add the fact that Tuson is going to get a lot more minutes on the field then the 9/4 we can get make him an attractive bet.

Suggest Tuson to score a try at anytime £20 @ 9/4 with Paddy Power.


Thanks H.

Did you see the proposal by kinboshi earlier? He was seeking your advice.

We got on this bet with Paddy Power at 9/4, but we got restricted to £15 I'm afraid. Your reputation precedes and all that.

Confirmation to follow, but we are.....

ON
Logged

All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link - http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY (copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016).
TightEnd
Administrator
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: I am a geek!!



View Profile
« Reply #46700 on: August 02, 2013, 06:15:47 PM »

Your patience on reports and spreadsheet this weekend please, am working (again) and things are likey to be updated at odd hours

Will catch up as I can.
Logged

My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
superwomble
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 2725



View Profile WWW
« Reply #46701 on: August 02, 2013, 06:18:35 PM »

I’m usually loathe to bet on or tip my own team, but the handicap market for League Two appears to be underestimating us, or overestimating how far ahead other teams will be, or both.

SkyBet have Wimbledon +26 at 20/1.

WillHill have us +27 at 18/1.

Both e/w terms are ¼ odds for top 4.

Last season we were awful and only just survived. However, after replacing Terry Brown with Neal Ardley, our second half of the season saw us with near play-off form.

We finished on 53 points, 30 behind the champions and 23 behind 4th place.

Both have Burton +16. We finished 17 points behind them last season.

I’m not being stupidly optimistic about our chances this season but I think we’ll definitely be higher than last year. We have a good young manager who is implementing professional change at the club, which has been too non-league in the league so far. We have brought in experienced players as well as some exciting younger ones.

I think it will be tight with the handicaps given but I think they are too big. What do you reckon?

Didn't see any comment about this so bumping as the season starts tomorrow Smiley
Logged

AFC Wimbledon Poker Club - https://www.facebook.com/afcwpokerclub/
tikay
Administrator
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: I am a geek!!



View Profile
« Reply #46702 on: August 02, 2013, 06:19:45 PM »

Your patience on reports and spreadsheet this weekend please, am working (again) and things are likey to be updated at odd hours

Will catch up as I can.

Am not working this weekend Rich, want me to do the Reports until Monday?

Can't do the flowery prose, don't know no long words, but I can do the basics.

Or we could experiment with a Guest Updater for the weekend......

Just imagine a Chompy Daily Report.

Big Brother is epic, bin day is Tuesday. That what I sayed.

Or Tal could do a chess based version, with long words & everything.
Logged

All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link - http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY (copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016).
TightEnd
Administrator
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: I am a geek!!



View Profile
« Reply #46703 on: August 02, 2013, 06:21:27 PM »

Your patience on reports and spreadsheet this weekend please, am working (again) and things are likey to be updated at odd hours

Will catch up as I can.

Am not working this weekend Rich, want me to do the Reports until Monday?

Can't do the flowery prose, don't know no long words, but I can do the basics.

Or we could experiment with a Guest Updater for the weekend......

Just imagine a Chompy Daily Report.

Big Brother is epic, bin day is Tuesday. That what I sayed.

Or Tal could do a chess based version, with long words & everything.

Yes good, thanks

Logged

My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
hector62
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 2359

Homo doctus is se semper divitias habet


View Profile
« Reply #46704 on: August 02, 2013, 06:21:33 PM »

Just seen his proposal and you are right that he doesn't need my input, he is a Wigan fan and is advocating a bet on Hull KR on the handicap. It shows he has an unbiased approach. I do have palpitations though whenever I see Wigan v Hull KR after that infamous encounter/tip recommendation.
Logged

Puristville, Arizona.  Population (1)
TightEnd
Administrator
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: I am a geek!!



View Profile
« Reply #46705 on: August 02, 2013, 06:23:33 PM »

for daily report

Clarke 106 ahead of the rest half way through the Ashes in the Aussie batter market £50 at 5/2

Swann 18 wickets in 5 innings £24 at 11/2, 5 ahead of Anderson and 6 ahead of Siddle

Both looking good bets

5-0, less so
Logged

My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
tikay
Administrator
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: I am a geek!!



View Profile
« Reply #46706 on: August 02, 2013, 06:25:50 PM »

Just seen his proposal and you are right that he doesn't need my input, he is a Wigan fan and is advocating a bet on Hull KR on the handicap. It shows he has an unbiased approach. I do have palpitations though whenever I see Wigan v Hull KR after that infamous encounter/tip recommendation.

The memory is seared forever more.......

OK, well we shall await Kinboshi now.

I'll be busy tonight, online pokering all evening, but I can get stuff on. Multi-Tasking Mis-Clicking genius.
Logged

All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link - http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY (copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016).
tikay
Administrator
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: I am a geek!!



View Profile
« Reply #46707 on: August 02, 2013, 06:26:48 PM »

Your patience on reports and spreadsheet this weekend please, am working (again) and things are likey to be updated at odd hours

Will catch up as I can.

Am not working this weekend Rich, want me to do the Reports until Monday?

Can't do the flowery prose, don't know no long words, but I can do the basics.

Or we could experiment with a Guest Updater for the weekend......

Just imagine a Chompy Daily Report.

Big Brother is epic, bin day is Tuesday. That what I sayed.

Or Tal could do a chess based version, with long words & everything.

Yes good, thanks



OK, leave it with me, unless we get a Guest Volunteer.
Logged

All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link - http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY (copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016).
Tal
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 24288


"He's always at it!"


View Profile
« Reply #46708 on: August 02, 2013, 06:28:22 PM »

Rumour that Tighty is going t'Eadingley to sort out the umpires. Can you offer any comment?
Logged

"You must take your opponent into a deep, dark forest, where 2+2=5, and the path leading out is only wide enough for one"
Bad Beat
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 1187


View Profile
« Reply #46709 on: August 02, 2013, 06:34:38 PM »

 Hate to throw a cat among the pigeons but Fred bet £450 at 1/3 on Gina NOT TO WIN Big Brother and people barely batted an eyelid. Nobody even seemed to have a strong view either way.

Logged
Pages: 1 ... 3110 3111 3112 3113 [3114] 3115 3116 3117 3118 ... 9209 Go Up Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!
Page created in 0.323 seconds with 20 queries.