Tips for Tikay

[BorntoBubble]

No bets placed or concluded yesterday,and so far as I can tell no activity on any of them ither

Daily Report tomorrow....

Bet thats a relief for you! an extra 10 minutes in your day!

[TightEnd]

No bets placed or concluded yesterday,and so far as I can tell no activity on any of them ither

Daily Report tomorrow....

Bet thats a relief for you! an extra 10 minutes in your day!

if it was only 10 minutes.....

[tikay]

No bets placed or concluded yesterday,and so far as I can tell no activity on any of them ither

Daily Report tomorrow....

Bet thats a relief for you! an extra 10 minutes in your day!

10 minutes?!

Make that an hour on an average day, 2 hours at weekends......

[tikay]

I really like England to win and both teams to score tomrrow night 5/2 Coral or William Hill

Did this last week v Montenegro, and the price is the same for tomorrow

England are 1/4, so no value

Looking around for alternatives, Poland have options going forward and England are look to me capable of letting the odd one in, even if it is just a consolation as last week

Would 5/2 Eng/BTTS be value?

In think we came to the view, aided by Gherkin's maths, that simple BTTS @ 6/4 (11/8 now) repped better value.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/matches/england-v-poland/both-teams-to-score

Wanna get on, if so, how much? Dont think its a bet to get silly with, but maybe worth £20 or £30 perhaps?

horsey mentioned Poland were as high as 14/1 in places, wow. I just don't think that these workaday International Games are a good betting medium these days, except in certain circumstances. (One-sided games, where FGS is value, for example).

I can't imagine ever feeling comfortable backing England for any significant sum in any circumstance. 

[doubleup]

I really like England to win and both teams to score tomrrow night 5/2 Coral or William Hill

Did this last week v Montenegro, and the price is the same for tomorrow

England are 1/4, so no value

Looking around for alternatives, Poland have options going forward and England are look to me capable of letting the odd one in, even if it is just a consolation as last week

Would 5/2 Eng/BTTS be value?

In think we came to the view, aided by Gherkin's maths, that simple BTTS @ 6/4 (11/8 now) repped better value.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/matches/england-v-poland/both-teams-to-score

Wanna get on, if so, how much? Dont think its a bet to get silly with, but maybe worth £20 or £30 perhaps?

horsey mentioned Poland were as high as 14/1 in places, wow. I just don't think that these workaday International Games are a good betting medium these days, except in certain circumstances. (One-sided games, where FGS is value, for example).

I can't imagine ever feeling comfortable backing England for any significant sum in any circumstance. 

Someone with a reliable spreadsheet should be able to add together the relevant scores.  However, the "both teams to score" market is just a derivarive of the main market - so surely it will only be wrong if the main market is wrong ie Poland are more likely to score (and win) than the market thinks?

[tikay]

I really like England to win and both teams to score tomrrow night 5/2 Coral or William Hill

Did this last week v Montenegro, and the price is the same for tomorrow

England are 1/4, so no value

Looking around for alternatives, Poland have options going forward and England are look to me capable of letting the odd one in, even if it is just a consolation as last week

Would 5/2 Eng/BTTS be value?

In think we came to the view, aided by Gherkin's maths, that simple BTTS @ 6/4 (11/8 now) repped better value.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/matches/england-v-poland/both-teams-to-score

Wanna get on, if so, how much? Dont think its a bet to get silly with, but maybe worth £20 or £30 perhaps?

horsey mentioned Poland were as high as 14/1 in places, wow. I just don't think that these workaday International Games are a good betting medium these days, except in certain circumstances. (One-sided games, where FGS is value, for example).

I can't imagine ever feeling comfortable backing England for any significant sum in any circumstance. 

Someone with a reliable spreadsheet should be able to add together the relevant scores.  However, the "both teams to score" market is just a derivarive of the main market - so surely it will only be wrong if the main market is wrong ie Poland are more likely to score (and win) than the market thinks?

Not sure - the debate was between two very specific markets, being BTTS (6/4 at the time) & Eng/BTTS, 5/2.

It was later suggested, with maths back up, that in theory, BTTS was the better of the two. 

I don't really know how many goals a team who are 1/4 at home are supposed to score - 3, 4? - neither do I know if the 14/1 dog is supposed to score at least a lone reply.

In truth, it looks like I know very little. No need to reply to that.

[doubleup]

Based on the under/over 2.5 market and the match odds England should average 2.5 goals and Poland .54 goals.

fwiw my spreadsheet makes btts 2.55, but it seems to underestimate the less likely scores in one-sided matches like this.   It makes England winning and btts 3.9, so I think that is prob a swerve.

[redarmi]

I used the current Asian market as that tends to be a bit more fluid and accurate and made it a bit more likely than doubleup but not even then probably best case scenario would be that 5/2 was close to being neutral EV.  I find it fairly hard to juggle the numbers and make it value.

[Chompy]

Is the new exchange in  the ad above just lads effort on there own or a rebranding of betdaq?

Texted my man who knows these things and he sayed...

"Yep. It's called Betdaq and has just been rebranded. "In-running betting not a priority" according to someone I know at the Daq."

[Doobs]

Nobody putting anything up for tonight?

Bet365

Spain vs Georgia

Spain are big favourites, so Michu (7/2) and Negredo (3/1) are worth a tenner e/w or whatever we are limited to.

I notice Nicklas Bendtner is 3/1 to be FGS in the Denmark against Malta.  He is a bit of a figure of fun, but Denmark are 1/50 vs Malta, and Bendtner scored twice the other day against Italy, so 3/1 Bendtner each way must be done.  Tal will be pleased to have one of his heroes in amongst the tips.

Wayne Rooney a smidgen of value too at 9/2 e/w.  Maybe get bigger ice cream points for this one than the above 3 too.

Suggest tenners each way on all the above, or whatever we can get.

And on the coupon that we can't mention, I have gone Benzema, Michu, Lukaku, Balotelli.  I was limited to £12 on the trebles, so did that on the 4 fold too.  Don't know how we can bet this without mentioning it, but has anybody got anything against these 4, or better options? 

[millidonk]

I think Bendtner is a great bet but sadly can't see a market for him?

[kpnuts]

I think Bendtner is a great bet but sadly can't see a market for him?

he's suspended, misses game.

[millidonk]

I think Bendtner is a great bet but sadly can't see a market for him?

he's suspended, misses game.

well that would make perfect sense. tks

[Doobs]

I think Bendtner is a great bet but sadly can't see a market for him?

he's suspended, misses game.

 Wondered where he had gone.  Any preference on the other Danes, KP?

[kpnuts]

I think Bendtner is a great bet but sadly can't see a market for him?

he's suspended, misses game.

 Wondered where he had gone.  Any preference on the other Danes, KP?

Haven't got a clue as to likely line-up. Helenius, current fav, not exactly prolific, only scored 40 in 100+ games in Danish league & yet to score for Villa.
Be a shame not to find one as Danes have every incentive to knock in a hatful, requiring a 7-goal turnaround on goal difference v Bulgaria to nab 2nd assuming both win...