Tips for Tikay

[DungBeetle]

Some notable fallers in the quest for World Championship qualification.  Mark Williams, Matthew Stevens and Mark King won't be at the crucible this year.

It's a tough road once you are out of the top 16.

[TightEnd]

NURSE, HE'S OUT OF BED AGAIN

Almost 2 years to the day, i recommended a kamikaze darts bet (with method in the madness) of 4 draws, where 3 came in and quite a few on here were on the rcmd'd lucky 15 (thin)

 http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=56581.4575   (extra thin brags inc a tip for Andy Murray 2013 spoty, and wiggins 2012 )

Thursday is the day I've been waiting nearly 2 years for, the bookies have now twigged on that the 5/1 - 6/1's for draws were wrongly priced, but even the average 7/2-4/1's they offer now is still imo overpriced esp with the shorter format.........(noticed a few debating this on here, but i just cant keep up with the 5000 pages per day anymore)
   the starting points of darts really should be increased from the 501 (just not from a betting prespective obv), but darts players are far better these days and most legs should go with the throw.

recommend 5 draws on Thursday in a lucky 31 (or a super yankee/canadian) just a quid or 2 a line....or if you want to rule one out to make it a lucky 15 take out either MVG v Lewis or
Anderson v Lewis.....but i wouldn't coz its gonna be 5 draws on thursday and we'll all be rich

i love this bet 5 close matches i have max bet a canadian £5.20 total bet for a return of £1k+ change

can i use my one time for this please?

skybet the place to go for the draws this week.  They are 4/1 every draw.  Unfortunately we can't get on there. 

Was just thinking about this again this morning.  When we did the maths, didn't we price each game at 50/50?  Think we should be building something that is 80/20, 20/80 or similar.   I have no idea how often an even player throwing first wins, but guessing it is nearer 80/20 than 50/50.  The 50/50 model might be a good enough approximation, but not sure it is going to be good enough to calculate reasonably accurate odds.  Eg if your model suggested 7/2 was about right, then you'd be really happy taking 7/1, but a bit wary about 4/1.

We've obviously been getting the lot recently, but that might just have been down to good fortune.  Of course a more accurate model could show us 2/1 is the right price, but I am struggling to make that leap without a spreadsheet.

I am away from home, so unlikely to be able to add much to this right now. 

This was the definitive post

Darts - probability of a draw in a 12 leg game.

I think that the probability of a draw in an even match (i.e. one where both players have the same probability of holding their own throw) is:

=(POWER(ProbWin;12)+36*POWER(ProbWin;10)*POWER((1-ProbWin);2)+225*POWER(ProbWin;8 )*POWER((1-ProbWin);4)+400*POWER(ProbWin;6)*POWER((1-ProbWin);6)+225*POWER(ProbWin;4)*POWER((1-ProbWin);8 )+36*POWER(ProbWin;2)*POWER((1-ProbWin);10)+POWER((1-ProbWin);12))

(in spreadsheet formula speak) where ProbWin is the probability of a player holding his own throw.

This gives the following figures:

Prob Holding Throw              Prob Drawn Match
0.5                                         0.2256
0.55                                       0.2268
0.6                                         0.2307
0.65                                       0.2376
0.7                                         0.2484
0.75                                       0.2649


This may well be bollux.
In any case, as discussed above, it assumes that the probability of holding your throw in a leg is independent of the current scoreline which seems unlikely.

(Figures for other length matches are available on request).

Saves me a job!  Haven't checked it, but looks good to me.

so its too late to back draws?

7/2 prices it in bar a few basis points?

4/1 doesn't but sky bet only offer 4/1?

[TightEnd]

Some notable fallers in the quest for World Championship qualification.  Mark Williams, Matthew Stevens and Mark King won't be at the crucible this year.

It's a tough road once you are out of the top 16.

the draw is tomorrow.

final qualifying can be followed at http://livescores.worldsnookerdata.com/RoundList/Tournament/13682


it looks a rather pedestrian set so far, with hotshots like brecel, lisowski falling earlier on and the likes of williams/stevens losing in the last 64

[exstream]

Exchange 2.14 under 2.5...

[DungBeetle]

It's going to be the long awaited coronation of Jamie Shotgun Cope.

I can smell it in the air.  300-1.  

[BorntoBubble]

Some notable fallers in the quest for World Championship qualification.  Mark Williams, Matthew Stevens and Mark King won't be at the crucible this year.

It's a tough road once you are out of the top 16.

Let's hope Williams is not around Sheffield either!

[Dubai]

Unders is 6/5 bf after commission. Sorry when said odds against was looking at bf market earlier

[horseplayer]

For those interested

Bayern are 1/14 on tonight and its a cup game they will be arsed in unlike the last two league games

Probably an even better than City for the goalscorer stuff and certainly a must for any doubles e.t.c

[arbboy]

Didn't take slybet long to cut all the draws to 7/2 in the darts.

[Nico29]

For those interested

Bayern are 1/14 on tonight and its a cup game they will be arsed in unlike the last two league games

Probably an even better than City for the goalscorer stuff and certainly a must for any doubles e.t.c

Which ones would you say look best in this game mate?

Know little about their team tbh, just on prices Schweinsteiger seems ok @10's?

[Chompy]

Given the long-term weather forecast and that Johnny G has said he probably won't risk Kingman in the 2,000gns if the ground is fast, should we be doing some business?

Australia 4/1 each-way is the obvious one, or maybe just take a chunk out of Kingman at 6/4?

[JaffaCake]

We've always got the£3 million Scoop 6 to fall back on on Saturday, in the unlikely event that all the draws don't come in....

Any interest in putting together a syndicate for this? 

Definite interest. still not sure what it is but it sounds like gambling, and we like that

[horseplayer]

Was going to suggest laying Kingman last night or trying to at 6/4

Worst scenario Runs on good ground and is similar price to what he is now.

Best scenario Does not run at all this made me think about that from an article by the excellent Kevin Blake from the Irish Field.

"One thing for sure is that in John Gosden, Kingman is in as good a pair of hands as any to be given every chance to reach his potential without being unduly risked, but it is for that reason that it would be best advised to hold fire on any bets on Kingman for the Newmarket 2,000 Guineas.

The dip at Newmarket is a challenge for any young horse, particularly when the ground is on the firm side, and with a horse with the issues and action that Kingman has, it would be perfectly understandable for Gosden to swerve Newmarket in preference for Longchamp if such a surface prevails. Indeed, 12 years ago he sent Kingman’s dam Zenda to Longchamp to win the Poule d'Essai des Pouliches rather than the Newmarket equivalent.



"

Another outcome is horse runs on good/good to firm ground and will almost certainly be more 2/1 than 6/4

Think it is an excellent lay for a trade were we might get the lot.

[horseplayer]

For those interested

Bayern are 1/14 on tonight and its a cup game they will be arsed in unlike the last two league games

Probably an even better than City for the goalscorer stuff and certainly a must for any doubles e.t.c

Which ones would you say look best in this game mate?

Know little about their team tbh, just on prices Schweinsteiger seems ok @10's?

Manduzkic (Spl) at 12/5 looks the banker, always tricky with Bayern as they rotate so much and also share the goals so much. Schweinsteiger would not be for me.

Muller, Ribery and Robben would be next in line.

Will post the starting line up as soon as i find it later.

[BorntoBubble]

For those interested

Bayern are 1/14 on tonight and its a cup game they will be arsed in unlike the last two league games

Probably an even better than City for the goalscorer stuff and certainly a must for any doubles e.t.c

Which ones would you say look best in this game mate?

Know little about their team tbh, just on prices Schweinsteiger seems ok @10's?

Manduzkic (Spl) at 12/5 looks the banker, always tricky with Bayern as they rotate so much and also share the goals so much. Schweinsteiger would not be for me.

Muller, Ribery and Robben would be next in line.

Will post the starting line up as soon as i find it later.

I was going to wait till 7pm?

I guess thats when both teams will be available and just do 3/4 Bayern players 3/4 Citeh players and then mix and match in doubles