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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13333708 times)
redarmi
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« Reply #75345 on: April 23, 2014, 10:35:05 PM »

Phil serious question

Why dont more of them use twitter?

Maybe they do but with a few hours work you can whittle a list of people who often get the market moves right and/or info out that causes price movements.

Appreciate they probably dont have the time but it shouldnt be that tricky

I'm not really sure on horse racing mate, maybe they do. As an example of what Arb was talking about there will be a load of golf traders betting the China Open 2morrow who will have looked on their rota and gone 'shit, that starts at 6am what a ball ache' and do almost no work on it and have no idea that Stenson has been in bed for 2 days with flu and pulled out of the pro am. If they do their money in on three balls in running or hole markets and then hear Stenny was ill there is a chance that some will go thru the bets and add restrictions. The prob for that guy is in some firms he will be on the golf from 6am til 10, might get a few tennis matches in the afternoon and then some footy from a text feed later so will be doing less work than a lot of the punters are on those events and probably doesn't have a lot of time or the inclination to do it.

Lets face facts too.  The best traders that have the work ethic and aptitude for the game generally soon realise they can make decent money punting and don't do these kind of jobs for long.  The guys doing the live betting for most firms aren't that good.  I have worked in the game on and off for nearly 20 years now and I can count on probably two hands the guys that I really rate that are still in day to day trading roles.  They do still exist of course but most of the talented guys find another way to make a living from their knowledge.  I'll give an example of the knowledge pool that is out there.  The head guy at the firm I do some bits and pieces for recently had a heart attack.   They wanted me to go down and do his job whilst he recuperated but I wasn't too keen so they asked me to interview a few candidates.  Bear in mind this is a book that has some of the sharpest punters alive betting with it and we don't really restrict them.  I spoke to 3 candidates.  None of them was able to tell me what the second half line for an nba game should be if the 6 point favourite was leading by 3 at half time.  One admitted to not understanding US odds types, another one when asked which firms does he respect as sharp for US sports answered Unibet and one couldn't name a single player in the NBA whose absence he thought would affect the betting line.  It is basically a case of the firms handicapping the punters rather than the events and thinking that is sufficient whereas the best firms realise you can do both and increase your margin but to be totally honest the only places I see that approach in terms of the guys I know is 365 and Sporting Index.  There are a couple of guys that are probably still hanging around at firms like Ladbrokes, Hills etc because they have mortgages and low risk thresholds but I would imagine they don't enjoy it anymore and have to do things they don't think are correct on a daily basis.
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tikay
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« Reply #75346 on: April 23, 2014, 10:39:05 PM »

Baldy go 1-2 about Frankie riding a Royal Ascot winner.

If they make Treve 11-10 for the Prince Of Wales's - she'll probably be odds-on if all goes to plan on her comeback next weekend - that means they make all Frankie's other rides about a combined 6-1 shot. That is obviously bollox. He's likely to have a fullish book this time now he's riding well again, so even if something happens to Treve the bet will be live.

As a borderline middle-aged punter, I suggest we take advantage of this oversight.

Recommend a chunky 200 FOBT tokens on Dettori to ride a Royal Ascot winner, 1-2 Baldyfraud.

Middle-aged punters are shite, I read it on Fred, tonight.

PS - "borderline"?

We have, with some trepidation, £20 @1/2, Betfred, Frankie Dettori to ride a Winner @ Royal Ascot, 2014.

I am assuming a FOTB token is £0.10p, right?

Bet placed, its reference is 330/362



Bet ref: 330/362 £200.00 Single


2014 New Year Specials
Frankie Dettori Specials
 To Ride A 2014 Royal Ascot Winner 1/2 


Total stake
£ 200.00

Estimated return
£ 300.00


Full stake
£ 200.00

Full estimated return
£ 300.00


BET PLACED
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bobby1
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« Reply #75347 on: April 23, 2014, 10:39:19 PM »

there are so many basic compiling errors made every week that involve 10 year old level probability calcs on markets that have no liquidity on the machine for them to copy.  The vast majority of so called traders literally have no idea about basic probability never mind advanced stuff.

This is deffo true and solely from a trading golf point of view I see a lot of examples at the business end of events where the firms simply don't understand that the guy one behind on the last has to make a birdie to get to a play off and then win a play off to win the event.

A month or so ago Keegan Bradley needed to birdie the last to tie Matt Every and take the event to a play off, the price for any random making birdie on that day was 13/2. You can use a bit of leeway to say well this guy has to go for birdie etc when others were playing the tough hole conservatively but even if you make him 5/1 to birdie the hole he is no shorter than 4/5 in a play off. Stan were betting the event 1/6 Every 7/2 Bradley.  It is clear that their guy has no comprehension of the hole stats, the price he is to make birdie or what price he will be in a play off to come up with a shorter price to win the event than he is just to make a birdie on the last to get into a play off. I bet it 1/14 and 9/1 so its not a massive price he lays loads of 1/6, does his money and codes em all up as arbers. I was happy to lay the 9/1 and wouldn't dream of coding em up if he had won coz they were still taking under the odds at 9/1.



I will give you an even easier easier fuck up a big 3 firm made 2 weeks ago.  They put up a 'name the finalists' market for the NBA.  Literally a double on east and west conferences winners which said firm had on their site.  Their double price on the two favs was 10/3 taking the prices from their conference markets.  Both of these prices were top on oddschecker as well so they were pretty much 100% prices bar the shouting.  So they offer a 'name the finalists' market and go 5/1 the field.  Then they wonder they they get filled in on the 5/1 fav.

Boyles on darts draws 'will there be a draw - yes 8/15' when its a pretty simple calc to work out the price based purely on the game prices yet they still totally fuck up.  

These are not arbs they are just awful basic errors being made by guys who are clueless at gcse maths level but call themselves 'compilers' then when you win they close you down and call you an 'arber'

yes that's a much better example, just abs basics there.
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tikay
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« Reply #75348 on: April 23, 2014, 10:47:32 PM »

You seen those shoes Mark Davis is wearing?

If Barry Hearn was doing his job properly, he'd give him a life ban for fashion violation.

Shocking, absolutely shocking.
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« Reply #75349 on: April 23, 2014, 10:49:39 PM »

Only been watching between about 9.30 and now every night but the standard has been average at best

That is Dale with the shoes isnt it?

This game been the worst of a bad lot
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arbboy
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« Reply #75350 on: April 23, 2014, 10:50:24 PM »

Baldy go 1-2 about Frankie riding a Royal Ascot winner.

If they make Treve 11-10 for the Prince Of Wales's - she'll probably be odds-on if all goes to plan on her comeback next weekend - that means they make all Frankie's other rides about a combined 6-1 shot. That is obviously bollox. He's likely to have a fullish book this time now he's riding well again, so even if something happens to Treve the bet will be live.

As a borderline middle-aged punter, I suggest we take advantage of this oversight.

Recommend a chunky 200 FOBT tokens on Dettori to ride a Royal Ascot winner, 1-2 Baldyfraud.

This is another classic example of 'how bad can a guy who is paid to be a compiler be?'.  How can u be this bad on something you are supposed to have a reasonable knowledge of? after all it is your job and you get paid to be relatively knowledgeable about two things: horse racing and maths.
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tikay
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« Reply #75351 on: April 23, 2014, 10:51:00 PM »

Only been watching between about 9.30 and now every night but the standard has been average at best

That is Dale with the shoes isnt it?

This game been the worst of a bad lot

Ahh yes, wrong bloke.

Ban them both then, imo.
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« Reply #75352 on: April 23, 2014, 10:52:32 PM »

They are both middle aged as well

BAN EM
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tikay
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« Reply #75353 on: April 23, 2014, 10:53:07 PM »

They are both middle aged as well

BAN EM

Yeah, middle-aged are shite.
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« Reply #75354 on: April 23, 2014, 10:53:52 PM »

I fancied even a middle aged fred regular would have potted that yellow.
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Dubai
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« Reply #75355 on: April 23, 2014, 10:57:40 PM »

Haha

I'm prob classed as Middle Aged these days now anyway Smiley
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Tal
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« Reply #75356 on: April 23, 2014, 10:58:15 PM »

Only been watching between about 9.30 and now every night but the standard has been average at best

That is Dale with the shoes isnt it?

This game been the worst of a bad lot

Ahh yes, wrong bloke.

Ban them both then, imo.

Can't ban the Spaceman!

Dubai, can we set the line at 35? I'd like to get to "savvy punter" before I go back to being "the value"
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tikay
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« Reply #75357 on: April 23, 2014, 11:00:43 PM »

Haha

I'm prob classed as Middle Aged these days now anyway Smiley

You gotta be middle aged when you start threads about Nursery Fees.
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redarmi
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« Reply #75358 on: April 23, 2014, 11:03:22 PM »

Haha

I'm prob classed as Middle Aged these days now anyway Smiley

You gotta be middle aged when you start threads about Nursery Fees.

....and a nit too.  The king is dead, long live the King.
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Dubai
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« Reply #75359 on: April 23, 2014, 11:04:33 PM »

I'm sure you will be glad to hear they have offered us 2 days in lieu and going to swap his days to tues and thurs as advised. Winner winner
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