Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

As horsey had said betfred/tote are doing 8 places now, so that means a bit more value than last night.  I can run it again tonight, the answers are likely to be similar.  If people know of injuries in the ones mentioned last night, it would be good to know now, so I can give them a miss.

[Doobs]

SPAM ALERT

There is an Open Golf Betting Preview show tonight on Ch 861 between 8pm & 10pm.

In the studio will be Sean Boyce (AtTheRaces bloke), John Rhodes (golf expert bloke), Sam Harrop (oddschecker bloke) & Neil Channing (BettingEmporium bloke).

It'll mostly be nattering, steers & pointers. With added nattering.

Questions & tips?

SkyOpen@bskyb.com or via Twitter @SkyPoker

Ha, will watch that, play the turbo open and run a trawl at the same time.  Can you ask Neil when his BE tips for the open are going up on his site?  If you don't do this can't see him having much opportunity to mention it.

[Bad Beat]

 Marvellous. Ollie has been having a busy life lately and although he has done work and had bets on the Open, (which he has shared with me), he won't be doing the event for us, which leaves me writing something which will appear at around noon tomorrow. It will be free for registered users.

 On the subject of Poulter. It seemed to be pretty well known that he was having a problem, (obv not in the Doobs household), and his Betfair price has drifted in the last 5 days from 50/1 to 80/1 and from 12/1 to 16/1 12345. I'm assuming that not too many pundits will tip him to win as it would be embarrassing to them to suggest someone who just has a nightmare or maybe even pulls out. I have read the Open blogs/previews/thoughts of around 12 people this morning and not one has even marginally suggested he has a chance. It would seem likely the price could drift to 100/1 and 22/1 top 5.

 Given that the whole point of what Doobs is doing here is that a Betfair market that will have £4m matched on it by 6am Thursday is liquid enough to be a totally accurate reflection of the chances of each player and therefore by using the knowledge of that accurate market to exploit the inefficiencies of the place market thrown up by firms offering eight places as a loss-leader we should make +ev bets, is it really right to simply say "We can't back this guy or this guy because he has a bad wrist". Surely the market is well aware of that (even if Doobs isn't) and that is why he is 80/1 and not the 45/1 he probably would have been if healthy.

 Is there no price that we can back Poulter? Is it possible the market has overeacted?

 On a side-note, it is definitely possible that the Betfair market can lead us to poor bets imo. If for example Steve Palmer was on an amazing run and his tips became as important to the market as the tips of Hugh Taylor in horse racing, (to take an example), then perhaps they would be massively overbet and someone who was 33/1 on Monday gets tipped and is now 20/1 on Betfair. Just because one firm who missed the early gamble is still 22/1 I would argue that this is a situation where the Doobs method does not throw up a good bet and I would give this one the swerve.

 Anyway...just thinking aloud in between reading.

 

[scotty2hatty]

I am the 2nd biggest winner here after Channing 

Get over yourself please

[Chompy]

I am the 2nd biggest winner here after Channing, so guess this kind of shat works, despite sometimes picking bad bets. I am up a fair bit more than that with Tony.

Crass. At best. One step away from the US poker players who proudly tell the table "I have more money than God himself."

[Chompy]

lol, timing scotty!

[exstream]

I'd be higher winner than Channing if my bets were put on

[Doobs]

I am the 2nd biggest winner here after Channing 

Get over yourself please

There is nothing positive in the post I replied to, it is basically you are an idiot and your methods are useless.  I was just pointing out I wasn't and they weren't.  I think that is fair given bobby is well into double figures on these type of posts against me.

Apologies if it didn't come across the way I intended.  

[bobby1]

Just done a value trawl on the Open markets.

Of those already mentioned it throws up the following as good bets with the BF sportsbook: Ilonen (80/1), McDowell (28/1), Bjorn (Tighty's rec at 55/1).  Kaymer is OK, but not as good as I thought he would be, and Jiminez (Adz's rec) is nearly there at 90/1.  I have backed all these now.

Others I have backed are:
Rory (BF sportsbook 16/1, I am having faith in the maths, so please don't fall apart in round 2.  His form has been generally good
Mickelson at 25/1 with PP (though they limited me)
Day at 40/1 with beteveryday (had an injury earlier in the year, has come back well
Bubba at 45/1 with beteveryday.  His form this year is very strong.
Paul Casey at 55/1 with BF SB.  Don't think he has placed this year.  Maybe one thread could miss, I am a maths geek, so have backed him anyway.
Poulter Coral at 66/1  His form looks solid
Cabrera at 70/1 (BF SB) Has just done a win
Donaldson at 66/1 (BF SB) Missed cut last week, but had a couple of strong performances the week before.
Gallacher at 80/1 (BF SB).  He was one that came up last week and finished really well to take a place.
Dubuisson at 110/1 (BF SB).  He is very good on the maths.
Manassero at 125/1 (BF SB).  Finished strongly last week.
Blixt 125/1 (BF SB).  he has missed quite a few cuts recently, but ran good in the Masters.  Possibly another for the possible discard pile?
Willett 150/1 (BF SB).  He is very good on the maths and was thrown up in the trawl last week, and was close without looking like getting in the top 6
English 150/1 (Boyles and Sporting)

I am unlikely to be able to do this again later in the week, so have personally just backed them all now.  Wednesday is a poker night and I have missed a few recently..  If people back any of these, it is essential people back these at theses prices or with the same offer.  Losing a couple of places can make a big difference, as can hacking 10% off the price. 

How thread uses this is up to Tikay, I am happy with them all, and a tenner each way on the ones I am more positive on is only just over £200 (whistling smiley).  The weather looks fine on Thursday right now, but Friday could be messy.  I am fairly sanguine on this, some might get bad draws, some might get good draws.  Maybe Friday will be just as bad for all, maybe the good weather will last until the weekend.

Edit.  I also did the Japanese Jordan Spieth, Hideki Matsuyama with Hills at 66/1.  He doesn't appear to have played for a month, which is a worry.  I am not sure whether there is an issue, but would like to know a reason before reccing him up.  He won a tournament just before he disappeared, so maybe he just took a break?

can someone tell me which of these can be ruled out on injury etc?

I think there will be plenty of people on here that could  do that Rich.

I have a question for you tho, do have any cricket fancies this week?

[TightEnd]

not specifically yet

the pitch for the second test is shown to the left of the groundsman



or this one, people standing on it

Click to see full-size image.

48 hours to go, depends after the debacle of the Nottingham pitch whether they take a conscious decision to leave some grass on.

[bobby1]

Marvellous. Ollie has been having a busy life lately and although he has done work and had bets on the Open, (which he has shared with me), he won't be doing the event for us, which leaves me writing something which will appear at around noon tomorrow. It will be free for registered users.

 On the subject of Poulter. It seemed to be pretty well known that he was having a problem, (obv not in the Doobs household), and his Betfair price has drifted in the last 5 days from 50/1 to 80/1 and from 12/1 to 16/1 12345. I'm assuming that not too many pundits will tip him to win as it would be embarrassing to them to suggest someone who just has a nightmare or maybe even pulls out. I have read the Open blogs/previews/thoughts of around 12 people this morning and not one has even marginally suggested he has a chance. It would seem likely the price could drift to 100/1 and 22/1 top 5.

 Given that the whole point of what Doobs is doing here is that a Betfair market that will have £4m matched on it by 6am Thursday is liquid enough to be a totally accurate reflection of the chances of each player and therefore by using the knowledge of that accurate market to exploit the inefficiencies of the place market thrown up by firms offering eight places as a loss-leader we should make +ev bets, is it really right to simply say "We can't back this guy or this guy because he has a bad wrist". Surely the market is well aware of that (even if Doobs isn't) and that is why he is 80/1 and not the 45/1 he probably would have been if healthy.

 Is there no price that we can back Poulter? Is it possible the market has overeacted?

 On a side-note, it is definitely possible that the Betfair market can lead us to poor bets imo. If for example Steve Palmer was on an amazing run and his tips became as important to the market as the tips of Hugh Taylor in horse racing, (to take an example), then perhaps they would be massively overbet and someone who was 33/1 on Monday gets tipped and is now 20/1 on Betfair. Just because one firm who missed the early gamble is still 22/1 I would argue that this is a situation where the Doobs method does not throw up a good bet and I would give this one the swerve.

 Anyway...just thinking aloud in between reading.

 

With respect Neil, I read your last preview for the US Open and the selections you made were by doing exactly the same thing as Doobs but later in the week and again with respect I don't think you would ever argue that golf was your strongest sport. So the point about having bets by just looking at the BF market still stands really. There will no doubt be good spots to take advantage of the place terms but backing Poulter at 66/1 6 places because he is 70 on BF doesn't fit into the portfolio of good bets if Poulter then drifts to 100 on BF. You are left with a bet you placed when there was info available that might have stopped you making that bet.

My point is always that Doobs is wasting bets by making the same mistakes each time, I don't really care what Doobs does with his money tbh but I do care what happens to Tony's money. There are plenty of good golf judges on here that could spend 200 quid between them using their own judgement and still take advantage of the good each way terms too.

[sharky_uk]

Be careful with the latest 8 places EW offer. The mobile version of the site only appears to be paying 6 places!

[claypole]

Be careful with the latest 8 places EW offer. The mobile version of the site only appears to be paying 6 places!

Yes I spotted that...and had to log in via a pc after calling Customer Services

[Bad Beat]

 ...that is the whole point though Phil. The Betfred 8-places means their place book is about 580% and the very liquid Betfair market tells me the "correct" price. If the prices on Betfair are so terrible and not correct then how come all the experts on golf are not just backing all the ones that are too long and laying all the ones that are too short and thus causing the prices to move to the "correct" price?

 Even a complete moron who knows nothing about golf like me can make good bets on this one.

[bobby1]

I am the 2nd biggest winner here after Channing, so guess this kind of shat works, despite sometimes picking bad bets. I am up a fair bit more than that with Tony.

Mate, people are calling you out on other threads as the reason they don't post anymore and your ego seems to be your driving force. Just read that back again fella and the resulting responses and just have a good think would be my advice. The only reason you put up stuff so early is you want to be first in, it''s the same with horses, golf, using free bets etc. My vote would be to get Ralph, Adz Dble Up Junior Hawko and other people that follow golf all year round and don't just throw some darts when they fancy a punt up come major week to spend the cash instead. That way the thread can have a forum feel again instead of being rife with the self interest that it has become.

You started of in your original thread saying you didn't have loads of time and wouldn't be able to do it Weds night because you were busy, well then why would anyone punt £200 of their money on selections you have made because you don't have time to do it properly later in the week?

Just to recap a point made to you many times over, you can do the BF v fixed odds scrape every day and you will get bets one day that are not bets another day and bets will appear each day that were not bets the day before. Your selections are simply decided by the time that you scrape the market, nothing more goes into them than that. And that's worth £200 of stakes?