Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Yes I got the impression that would be the answer and I totally understand.

That was just my personal view, if others think we should have an interest, I'd not argue.

We have LOTS of bets I disagree with. Thankfully, nobody takes any notice of Lord Nit.

[BigAdz]

I was actually going to recommend a max bet on Rory at 2/9 on betfair even though we are already involved I just think this is an unmissable spot having spoke to numerous people about it last night.  It's a rare opportunity when the bf price is this wrong just because the worst result for virtually every book is hosing up and casual punters are fighting to outbid each other to lock in their 20/1 tickets on bf at 1/5 without really caring what price Rory actually is.

I might be the only person here who would not bet Rory @ 1/5. Yes, all that matters is it is VALUE, & it is.

But I'd never bet it. A snap-hook OOB, & you never know, especially with young Fowler being so impressive.

Not for me, I'm afraid. Am very happy with our book, & no matter what happens, it's been a great week here, everything I hoped it might be.
 

Same boat. While I appreciate I may well be a value spew-monkey to team maths, on the rare occasion I do think I really should get involved, it doesn't warrant the excess stress undergone, and to be honest my record of finding those 1/5 plus shots that do get beat, is quite impressive.

I have also seen more than enough 1-100 on shots get beat up that hill at Towcester to know which side of the arguement I would rather be on long term, if I did get involved.

[Tal]

Ok. Muggins question...

It seems completely logical to me that betfair should be offering the best price on Rory.

Every bookie has been taking bets on Norn Iron's finest at double figure prices and will be facing a chunky liability, with lots of "names" doing well. I would expect them to be pushing Rory in further than fair and encouraging punters to throw away some of their anticipated tenners on him collapsing and one of the others having a good run. They won't get anyone betting today otherwise.

Betfair doesn't have that kind of concern. We hold a liquid betfair market as the bastion of true odds. For every casual punter wanting to lay off some of their expected return for their tenner on Rory, there's an arbboy hoovering up the 2/9.

So. My question: why would 2/9 be a bet?

[TightEnd]

Agnes' Daily Report of the day

Profit of the Month £58.23. Not big enough. You must do better

Outstanding Bets £2608.20. Not enough. Get on with it

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=27

E: Hello its Esmerelda speaking. How may help you?

A: Hi, I am a twenty something Scottish Man called Agnes. I would like to know how we got on yesterday please?

E: No bets settled, so its the same as it was yesterday

A: That's crap. I would like a refund of my Morrisons shopping please

E: We are not Morrisons sir, but I would like to think our thread gives a Fresh Choice for you, sir  

...

...

E Agnes, are you still there?

A. Yes, just writing a letter to your chief Executive. If she doesn't answer by midday I am going to the Mirror

E. Probably cracked sir, life's not fair

A. So any progress on our bets yesterday?

E Yes sir. Lets start with the Test cricket.The game is very delicated poised, England 2.3 India 2.7 and two days to play

Click to see full-size image.

 

A Should have won already, it is crap. I am writing to the ECB about it. Except they are English, so I will write it in blood.  

E Pujara got out for 43, his third start of the series and a bit frustrating he has not gone on to a big score yet

Click to see full-size image.

A Rubbish

E Shall we move onto the cycling sir?

A Free bike in it for me, without prejudice?

E No sir, but our rider Valverde lost a bit of ground yesterday but is still podiumvating

ITA  1  NIBALI, Vincenzo (ASTANA)                         61:52:54
ESP  2  VALVERDE BELMONTE, Alejandro (MOVISTAR)            +  4:37
FRA  3  BARDET, Romain (AG2R LA MONDIALE)                  +  4:50
FRA  4  PINOT, Thibaut (FDJ.fr)                            +  5:06
USA  5  VAN GARDEREN, Tejay (BMC RACING)                   +  5:49

Click to see full-size image.

A Has he just looked at the Opinion polls for scottish Independence?

E F1, sir?

A Lewis Fucking Hamilton

Click to see full-size image.

E Crashed sir, brake failure. Good news for the Rosberg bet, odds on to win today. Both Force India's in the top 10



A I am going to write to the Chief Executive of Force India, should have been higher

E Darts sir?

E James Wade, won his first round match 10-5. Won sir

Click to see full-size image.

A 10-5? Should have won by more

E Speedway sir? After 7 rounds of the Speedway GP Championship our man Darcy Ward lies 3rd, 15 points behind Hancock and Woffinden with five meetings to go

Click to see full-size image.

A  Speedway? get on with it

E Baseball sir. The Orioles beat the A's 8-4 to even up their series. The Yankees won and the Royals lost

Click to see full-size image.

A The Yankees won and the Royals lost. Useless

E Is there anything else I can help you with sir?

E Sir....

E.....goodbye sir.....

 

[tikay]

!

Oh my word.....

[arbboy]

Simple answer IMO is supply and demand. These are not balanced in unique one off situations like this. I know at least five punters who have backed Rory ore event who have put up a lay of him at 1/5 overnight without a care in the world what price they are laying and if they hadn't backed him pre event they wouldn't be laying a copper coin of him today at 1/5 as they haven't got a clue whether it's a good bet or not and some would argue given that they are on at 20/1 and can lock in hundreds risk free for their once a year golf bet why would they care?. There will be numerous thousands of others like these guys this morning and they are all competing against each other forcing the betfair price to remain much higher than it should be.

The instant reaction from three posters on this thread also helps to explain why there is an imbalance in suplply and demand in this spot.

[Tal]

Think you might be right about the Simpsons, tikay. This is Agnes, Principal Skinner's mom:

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

Might just be the best Daily Report ever.

No offence, KMac, but when I spotted you were called Agnes, it did result in some mirth. 

[Tal]

Simple answer IMO is supply and demand. These are not balanced in unique one off situations like this. I know at least five punters who have backed Rory ore event who have put up a lay of him at 1/5 overnight without a care in the world what price they are laying and if they hadn't backed him pre event they wouldn't be laying a copper coin of him today at 1/5 as they haven't got a clue whether it's a good bet or not and some would argue given that they are on at 20/1 and can lock in hundreds risk free for their once a year golf bet why would they care?. There will be numerous thousands of others like these guys this morning and they are all competing against each other forcing the betfair price to remain much higher than it should be.

The instant reaction from three posters on this thread also helps to explain why there is an imbalance in suplply and demand in this spot.

But don't the layers in this spot tend to be more aggressive than the bettors? Or is that just perception?

[superwomble]

Cracking report Tighty!

[Omm]

Too good today Tighty, even more exceptional than normal.

[tikay]

Simple answer IMO is supply and demand. These are not balanced in unique one off situations like this. I know at least five punters who have backed Rory ore event who have put up a lay of him at 1/5 overnight without a care in the world what price they are laying and if they hadn't backed him pre event they wouldn't be laying a copper coin of him today at 1/5 as they haven't got a clue whether it's a good bet or not and some would argue given that they are on at 20/1 and can lock in hundreds risk free for their once a year golf bet why would they care?. There will be numerous thousands of others like these guys this morning and they are all competing against each other forcing the betfair price to remain much higher than it should be.

The instant reaction from three posters on this thread also helps to explain why there is an imbalance in suplply and demand in this spot.

I do know I'm wrong, by the bye, but it's just something I would not get much satisfaction or enjoyment from doing. As a recreational punter, making a little bit of money, & enjoying myself is all that matters.

Think if I backed a 1-5 shot, even if it were value, it'd stress me out if the wheels went a bit wobbly.

 

[arbboy]

Simple answer IMO is supply and demand. These are not balanced in unique one off situations like this. I know at least five punters who have backed Rory ore event who have put up a lay of him at 1/5 overnight without a care in the world what price they are laying and if they hadn't backed him pre event they wouldn't be laying a copper coin of him today at 1/5 as they haven't got a clue whether it's a good bet or not and some would argue given that they are on at 20/1 and can lock in hundreds risk free for their once a year golf bet why would they care?. There will be numerous thousands of others like these guys this morning and they are all competing against each other forcing the betfair price to remain much higher than it should be.

The instant reaction from three posters on this thread also helps to explain why there is an imbalance in suplply and demand in this spot.

I do know I'm wrong, by the bye, but it's just something I would not get much satisfaction or enjoyment from doing. As a recreational punter, making a little bit of money, & enjoying myself is all that matters.

Think if I backed a 1-5 shot, even if it were value, it'd stress me out if the wheels went a bit wobbly.

 

9 months of Stress from the 2/7 Watford bet one feels!!!

[Doobs]

Ok. Muggins question...

It seems completely logical to me that betfair should be offering the best price on Rory.

Every bookie has been taking bets on Norn Iron's finest at double figure prices and will be facing a chunky liability, with lots of "names" doing well. I would expect them to be pushing Rory in further than fair and encouraging punters to throw away some of their anticipated tenners on him collapsing and one of the others having a good run. They won't get anyone betting today otherwise.

Betfair doesn't have that kind of concern. We hold a liquid betfair market as the bastion of true odds. For every casual punter wanting to lay off some of their expected return for their tenner on Rory, there's an arbboy hoovering up the 2/9.

So. My question: why would 2/9 be a bet?

I am not a bookie, but I am not convinced they will have massive liabilities on Rory.  He managed a high profile collapse in the 2nd round in Scotland the week before and if there is one thing punters do well, it is recency bias.  

Even though they had similar prices, I expect bookies had much bigger liabilities on Justin Rose*.

I am not saying that Rory would be a good result for them, just that it will be a lot better than it would have been if The Open has taken place a week earlier.

Arbboy has explained why 2/9 is probably value.  

* I expect someone will now be able to tell me Rory was the nut worst result.

[booder]

Too good today Tighty, even more exceptional than normal.