Tips for Tikay

[DungBeetle]

Leaving aside teams visiting  Blackpool (due to extraordinary circumstances) it is surely too early to have teams in the Championship as reasonably heavy favourites to win on the road?  I agree this should happen once teams are on a roll and have clearly shown themselves to be a cut above, but after 1 game I can't have many teams as favourites away in this division.

I suggest backing the following home teams at £25 each - each home team pays nearly 2/1 and if one comes in then it's a virtual freeroll.

The teams are:

Leeds v Boro
Birmingham v Brighton
Sheff Wed v Derby

Thoughts on this as a basic strategy?

[JaffaCake]

Meanwhile, Ladbrokes problems are nothing to do with their own ineptitude, Oh no


They just don't get it, do they?

Blaming all & sundry for their own inability to go the pace.

They are like a poker player who can't take a beat & blames everyone else for their misfortunes.

I can name at least two of the Big Five who delivered stunning YoY increases in Sports Betting Profit.

Meanwhile, Ladbrokes Poker fell a staggering 59% YoY. 59%! How many years of consecutive decline is that?

Think a better analogy is the poker player who doesn't realise the game has moved on and doesn't adapt to the changes, thinking coz they've been around for ever they're still  the best while not realising they're being left behind horribly. What a shame

[TightEnd]

" so you now have £360 to lay off something on the exchange rather than £400.

So still lay off £10 on the exchange - that gives you £9.50 after commissh if he loses and £160 if he wins."

 Placed (matched)
Lay (Bet Against)    Backer's odds    Backer's stake    Your liability
Wyndham Championship 2014
Webb Simpson Winner    21    £10.00    
£200.00
Ref: 40050199983M Matched: 12:39 13-Aug-14


either wins £160 or £9.50 as double up advises

[doubleup]

Lads could actually have bought 888 not that long ago, but pulled out because 888 had taken a bet from someone in Kazakhstan in 1953.

They had huge success with their wsop squads and managed to find a way to not capitalise on that, truly shocking.

[tikay]

Meanwhile, Ladbrokes problems are nothing to do with their own ineptitude, Oh no


They just don't get it, do they?

Blaming all & sundry for their own inability to go the pace.

They are like a poker player who can't take a beat & blames everyone else for their misfortunes.

I can name at least two of the Big Five who delivered stunning YoY increases in Sports Betting Profit.

Meanwhile, Ladbrokes Poker fell a staggering 59% YoY. 59%! How many years of consecutive decline is that?

Think a better analogy is the poker player who doesn't realise the game has moved on and doesn't adapt to the changes, thinking coz they've been around for ever they're still  the best while not realising they're being left behind horribly. What a shame

Yup, probably a better way of describing it.

A shame indeed, but the fleet of foot march on, while the rest get left behind, chuntering away at the back of the field. 

[exstream]

Lads could actually have bought 888 not that long ago, but pulled out because 888 had taken a bet from someone in Kazakhstan in 1953.

They had huge success with their wsop squads and managed to find a way to not capitalise on that, truly shocking.

Explain lol

[doubleup]

Lads could actually have bought 888 not that long ago, but pulled out because 888 had taken a bet from someone in Kazakhstan in 1953.

They had huge success with their wsop squads and managed to find a way to not capitalise on that, truly shocking.

Explain lol

obv an exaggeration on my part   but they became absurdly risk adverse when looking to buy anything

[redarmi]

Richard Glynns comments on the racing industry today in the Racing Post are incredible.  He talks about the racing industry as if it is something that Ladbrokes have no input into.  He actually had the gall to say "we have to make this product more relevant to the gambling consumer going forward"  Perhaps could start by actually allowing the gambling consumer to gamble?

[arbboy]

couldn't believe glynn's comments either.  I actually really feel like emailling him personally and asking him why my local 3 ladbrokes' shops just point blank refuse to even refer a bet from me to never mind actually accept one.  The local manager told me 'I have the power to just refuse your bets without even referring them to so please never come back into any of my 3 shops in my area and try and place a bet as they will be refused'.  The firm is a total joke.  Their head of loltrading could be sitting at desperate to lay something and i am desperate to back it but the £15k a year lolshopmanager thinks he has the power to judge whether ladbrokes will take a bet and not the guy in the firm who's job it actually is.   He openly admitted to me that he hadn't contacted the trading team at Harrow to make the decision and had just made it himself.  I told him i would still get on at Ladbrokes but it would cost the company more as i would have to bet more to pay for people to get me on effectively and his reply was 'i couldn't care less if you still get on as long as you don't get on in the 3 shops i am responsible for'.  Would have been nice to have a hidden camera and record the convo and send it to Glynn then he might start to understand why his firm is so badly run from top to bottom.

There seem to be so many operational issues at ladbrokes that need sorting out from top to bottom.  All that seems to keep getting the blame is the app/playtech.  The major reason why they do their nuts is their trading team is awful at pricing stuff up.  I think firms in the last 5 years have moved so far away from the basics of bookmaking and moved into betting to 100% books/promo's/freebets/cashbacks/moneyback offers they have forgot that the core part of their business (and any business) is getting the price of your product right.  In the bookmaking world getting the price of your product right involves a lot more skill than most businesses because you don't 'buy' a good for £x and add a 40% mark up and sell it.

[hector62]

Afternoon Mr T.

In the ATP tennis today I find myself at odds with the compilers again. I would make Lleyton Hewitt favourite over Foggy Dewhurst, but we can get 6/5. Hewitt has won a hard court tournament this year and beat some tough opponents on the way, so is in good form and faces an opponent who is just treading water until he can get back on his beloved clay court. Also in our favour is Foggy's ability to implode and defeat himself.

Suggest £20 Hewitt @ 6/5 with Betfred or Hills.

[typhoon13]

couldn't believe glynn's comments either.  I actually really feel like emailling him personally and asking him why my local 3 ladbrokes' shops just point blank refuse to even refer a bet from me to never mind actually accept one.  The local manager told me 'I have the power to just refuse your bets without even referring them to so please never come back into any of my 3 shops in my area and try and place a bet as they will be refused'.  The firm is a total joke.  Their head of loltrading could be sitting at desperate to lay something and i am desperate to back it but the £15k a year lolshopmanager thinks he has the power to judge whether ladbrokes will take a bet and not the guy in the firm who's job it actually is.   He openly admitted to me that he hadn't contacted the trading team at Harrow to make the decision and had just made it himself.  I told him i would still get on at Ladbrokes but it would cost the company more as i would have to bet more to pay for people to get me on effectively and his reply was 'i couldn't care less if you still get on as long as you don't get on in the 3 shops i am responsible for'.  Would have been nice to have a hidden camera and record the convo and send it to Glynn then he might start to understand why his firm is so badly run from top to bottom.

There seem to be so many operational issues at ladbrokes that need sorting out from top to bottom.  All that seems to keep getting the blame is the app/playtech.  The major reason why they do their nuts is their trading team is awful at pricing stuff up.  I think firms in the last 5 years have moved so far away from the basics of bookmaking and moved into betting to 100% books/promo's/freebets/cashbacks/moneyback offers they have forgot that the core part of their business (and any business) is getting the price of your product right.  In the bookmaking world getting the price of your product right involves a lot more skill than most businesses because you don't 'buy' a good for £x and add a 40% mark up and sell it.

Good post Mark

Ladbrokes have 3 shops in Lincoln they refused my bet and then refused my wifes

I asked if we could do a £1 place pot in future and was told NO

They deserve a good kicking it might help them to realise what pratts they are

[TightEnd]

Afternoon Mr T.

In the ATP tennis today I find myself at odds with the compilers again. I would make Lleyton Hewitt favourite over Foggy Dewhurst, but we can get 6/5. Hewitt has won a hard court tournament this year and beat some tough opponents on the way, so is in good form and faces an opponent who is just treading water until he can get back on his beloved clay court. Also in our favour is Foggy's ability to implode and defeat himself.

Suggest £20 Hewitt @ 6/5 with Betfred or Hills.

betfair

13 Aug 14
15:19    
Fognini v L Hewitt
Lleyton Hewitt - Match Odds
      Back    2.30    20.00
   ---
       

[edgascoigne]

couldn't believe glynn's comments either.  I actually really feel like emailling him personally and asking him why my local 3 ladbrokes' shops just point blank refuse to even refer a bet from me to never mind actually accept one.  The local manager told me 'I have the power to just refuse your bets without even referring them to so please never come back into any of my 3 shops in my area and try and place a bet as they will be refused'.  The firm is a total joke.  Their head of loltrading could be sitting at desperate to lay something and i am desperate to back it but the £15k a year lolshopmanager thinks he has the power to judge whether ladbrokes will take a bet and not the guy in the firm who's job it actually is.   He openly admitted to me that he hadn't contacted the trading team at Harrow to make the decision and had just made it himself.  I told him i would still get on at Ladbrokes but it would cost the company more as i would have to bet more to pay for people to get me on effectively and his reply was 'i couldn't care less if you still get on as long as you don't get on in the 3 shops i am responsible for'.  Would have been nice to have a hidden camera and record the convo and send it to Glynn then he might start to understand why his firm is so badly run from top to bottom.

There seem to be so many operational issues at ladbrokes that need sorting out from top to bottom.  All that seems to keep getting the blame is the app/playtech.  The major reason why they do their nuts is their trading team is awful at pricing stuff up.  I think firms in the last 5 years have moved so far away from the basics of bookmaking and moved into betting to 100% books/promo's/freebets/cashbacks/moneyback offers they have forgot that the core part of their business (and any business) is getting the price of your product right.  In the bookmaking world getting the price of your product right involves a lot more skill than most businesses because you don't 'buy' a good for £x and add a 40% mark up and sell it.

Good post Mark

Ladbrokes have 3 shops in Lincoln they refused my bet and then refused my wifes

I asked if we could do a £1 place pot in future and was told NO

They deserve a good kicking it might help them to realise what pratts they are

You can never be too careful 

[TightEnd]

Week 1 of the NFL

The San Francisco 49ers travel to the Dallas Cowboys

The points spread is around 48-50

bwin, amongst others, go 10/11 over 48.5

The line should trend above 50

It will still be too low

Last season the Cowboys had the worst defense in the league. Embarrassingly bad

The off-season things have gone from bad to worse

- DeMarcus Ware was traded to the Broncos, partly for salary cap reasons

- the star middle linebacker Sean Lee did an ACL in non contact mini camp in June

- the second round draft pick DeMarcus Lawrence (pass rusher) is injured and will miss week 1

- the slot cornerback Scandrick is suspended for PEDs for the first four week sof the season

With departures, key injuries and little strengthening in the draft the Cowboys defense could be worse again

"
Ross Tucker @RossTuckerNFL  ·(Former NFL player now NBC Sports Network,)  

I think we have to consider possibility that Cowboys will have worst defense in NFL history "


On the other side of the ball the Cowboys should score a lot of points, and are going to need to. The OLine particular looks brilliant (three first round draft picks, very good run blockers) and there are plenty of weapons such as Dez, Witten, Williams and DeMarco Murray

The 49ers also have one of the best OL in the league, and will score a lot of points against the Cowboys with Kaepernick, Gore, Crabtree, Boldin, Vernon Davis etc.

The defense is fine, a couple of suspensions and injuries but the summation of all the above is that this is far likely to be 45-35 or 30+ points both ways than it is 24-24 or similar scores

Looking at everything around the Cowboys, over 48.5 points is a must buy ahead of the remainder of pre-season  

Recommend as above.  

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/san-francisco-49ers-at-dallas-cowboys/total-points

[redarmi]

I like your analysis here Tighty but it reads to me more like a reason to bet the 49ers than overs on the basis that the part of it that will likely to be badly priced is underestimating how bad the Cowboys D is likely to be rather than anything we don't really know about their offense or the Niners D......closer to the time maybe even 49ers team points over.....I am sure they are all value but just thinking out loud a bit?