Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

The time difference means I'm struggling to keep up here, but I think that doobs & nuros both stuck bets on for Fred today.

Let me know if I owe you guys any money, & if so, how much, please.

It's really appreciated.


PS - What a wonderful week we have had so far.

You don't owe anything, both winners

I run so good.

Thanks Doobs, Nuros.

[Peter-27]

Peter, I just had a thought, you do realize that £20 a point is a little out of sync with your normal fixed odds bet sizing reccs?

Do you consider this a max/max/max?

To be able to buy at 53 is crazy, they should (and I'm sure will) score way more than that. I bet as much as I could afford without impacting my lifestyle/savings.

It's pretty clear that sporting index haven't considered the impact of the new car coming at the next race. The team would get close to 53 points with their current car, let alone their proper 2015 challenger ..

I have a question on the back of this, do spread betting companies ever limit accounts?

What's the liability and profit on his exact bet?

They're currently on 21, I bought at 53, so I make that a liability of £640 after I bought at £20. Profit .. really depends on how many points they score! I'm predicting 125 points as a minimum, but let's say 100 to be safe. That would be a profit of £940.

Interestingly, since I posted my views on here, the buy value has gone up to 62 .. is that really just due to TFT's influence?!  

It's because the quote was updated after they both were in top 10 after 2nd practice.

I checked straight after 2nd practice and it was 54. Now 62.

It was 62 when Joe posted yesterday.  So the price moved between 2nd practice and Joe's post?  

No doubt you move the prices on these markets, especially the thin ones.  I have seen some very big moves this year. I am not sure about what happened here though.

Yeah, bit of a weird one. It's very interesting monitoring the prices

Alonso needs a new gearbox, so another five-place grid penalty to add to the 20 places he already has

Button a 25 place penalty

think we can run the Mclaren position!

i would be tempted to double up Force India for TfT, i must say. £2 a point with (worst case) downside of 62-21=41 points seems reasonable

I have £20 on, that's how strongly I recommend this bet. £640 liability .. eek!  

I'm gonna look through the F1 markets now, will post up some bets in like 15 mins if I see anything.

Nothing at the moment, but the market is still forming.

Will look again at 12:30

The markets are well priced today, sadly for us.

I do like the look of exactly 0.15-0.25 on this market though:

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/austrian-grand-prix/qualifying-winning-margin

I suggest £10.

Hah, this bet landed bang on in the middle! 0.20 seconds 

Nice one Peter

Thank you!

Did you get on?

Yes, it's very rare I miss any of your stuff

Wonderful! As long as people keep taking advantage, I'll keep posting

And Formula E is in my diary for next Saturday. The last race of the season I believe ?

Yep, it's a double header too! One race weekend on the Saturday, and one on the Sunday

[Karabiner]

Almost a milly done @c1/8 on the kiwis here.

[MattyHollis]

Millwards Davy 2nd i'm afraid, beaten by a 12/1 shot doh!

[The_nun]

I would love to travel  on Amtrak one day.

[Chompy]

Speith could so easily be out of sight, decent birdie putts missed at the last three holes.

We have various options, either leave things as they are, or green up. Can do whatever the big cheeses desire.

[cheapwetsuit]

With Andy Murray looking to play the best part of two matches later today (if he wins his semi), should we not be looking to get on Kevin Anderson at 11/4? He's been serving well all week, and will be a lot fresher for the final. Hoping to hear some opinions from the tennis blokes. Also, when would be the best time to place the bet? First thing in the morning, or after Murray has beaten Troicki (assuming he does).

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £779.33

Outstanding Bets £2709.12

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eCEvN9MELsUxB81rHuWrfoX3zwIMPQQ205Lcjm3kbgU/edit?pli=1#gid=25

A profit of £42 yesterday

+£120 Ryan Moore Royal Ascot top jockey with 9 winners



+£35 Teak each way in the last race at Ascot

+£14 Santefisio e/w at Ayr

+£2 Brazen Beau each way at Ascot. Jockey issues, here in yellow. one owner commented afterwards to a journalist "better draw and better jockey we win by three lengths"




losers

-£30 Glass office hit a glass ceiling

-£30 Herath one wicket for Sri Lanka v Pakistan, 3 won it

-£10 Taylor ODI batsman

-£15 Boult ODI bowler. had a chance at a scoop with the rain delay, which did not quite last long enough and Boult lost by a wicket over the 5 games to Santner

-£15 Millwards Davy 2nd at Wmbledon

-£20 Con te partitio did not make the grweyhound hurdle final

-£10 Rivellino at Ascot

ongoing

US Open going into the last round

Speith -4 one of 4 co-leaders

Reed had a disappointing 76, now +1

Matsuyama +3

Rose +4

Martin had an absolute shocker with an 86 now +13

all our eggs seem to be in this man's basket then

Click to see full-size image.

Austrian Grand Prix

we had the chance of a scoop of good qualifying results, until....

Click to see full-size image.

Uruguay drew 1-1 with Paraguay to qualify for the copa amaerica last 16. no goals for Rolan, and one less place for ecuador to qualify into

[TightEnd]

Speith could so easily be out of sight, decent birdie putts missed at the last three holes.

We have various options, either leave things as they are, or green up. Can do whatever the big cheeses desire.

your call

Speith apart we have £90 of positions which look less likely to return than they did 24 hours ago

[Doobs]

Having lost a bit on Brazen Beau's defeat, how do we know the jockey did anything wrong?  He had walked the course beforehand and decided that was the right path to take.  We didn't.  Maybe if the other jockeys had took the "right path"? Maybe if he'd switched hard right and taken the longer path?  Maybe the owner is just another bad loser?  

I am sure the jockey knows better than me or the owner of the horse.

[Doobs]

Speith could so easily be out of sight, decent birdie putts missed at the last three holes.

We have various options, either leave things as they are, or green up. Can do whatever the big cheeses desire.

your call

Speith apart we have £90 of positions which look less likely to return than they did 24 hours ago

Is 3.3 the right price, too big or too short should be where we start?  The bookies are 2/1 best.

I am not much of a trader, but why do we green out on Speith, but not red out on Woods?   Easy now to say why we shouldn't have redded out on Woods, so see it more as a general principle discussion.

[TightEnd]

Speith could so easily be out of sight, decent birdie putts missed at the last three holes.

We have various options, either leave things as they are, or green up. Can do whatever the big cheeses desire.

your call

Speith apart we have £90 of positions which look less likely to return than they did 24 hours ago

Is 3.3 the right price, too big or too short should be where we start?  The bookies are 2/1 best.

I am not much of a trader, but why do we green out on Speith, but not red out on Woods?   Easy now to say why we shouldn't have redded out on Woods, so see it more as a general principle discussion.

He "over-greened" Speith to cover the Woods loss, was my understanding.

£95 at 21 placed during the masters

stage 1 cover the £95 at 10 before the start

stage 2 cover the Woods £50 by laying Speith at 3/1 for that amount

book becomes 789-0

[Peter-27]

Couple of F1 bet recommendations:

Points Finish - Sergio Perez @ EVS with Cwin. Can't really believe EVS is being offered on this. The Force India is clearly very quick here. Sergio did have a poor qualifying, but he was held up by Alonso (as was Raikkonen too), and that's why both of them went out in Q1. Due to grid penalties, Sergio will start 13th, and he should score points today. Suggest £20.

Group B (MAS/BOT/RAI/MAL) - Valtteri Bottas @ 13/8 with William & Kate Hill.

Raikkonen coming through the field could be a threat to this, but 13/8 is too high. Should be around 11/10. Suggest £10.

[TightEnd]

Couple of F1 bet recommendations:

Points Finish - Sergio Perez @ EVS with Cwin. Can't really believe EVS is being offered on this. The Force India is clearly very quick here. Sergio did have a poor qualifying, but he was held up by Alonso (as was Raikkonen too), and that's why both of them went out in Q1. Due to grid penalties, Sergio will start 13th, and he should score points today. Suggest £20.

Group B (MAS/BOT/RAI/MAL) - Valtteri Bottas @ 13/8 with William & Kate Hill.

Raikkonen coming through the field could be a threat to this, but 13/8 is too high. Should be around 11/10. Suggest £10.

our bwin account is closed

anywhere else for this one?

[BigAdz]

Having lost a bit on Brazen Beau's defeat, how do we know the jockey did anything wrong?  He had walked the course beforehand and decided that was the right path to take.  We didn't.  Maybe if the other jockeys had took the "right path"? Maybe if he'd switched hard right and taken the longer path?  Maybe the owner is just another bad loser?  

I am sure the jockey knows better than me or the owner of the horse.

I was amazed that I don't recall once seeing anyone come up against the stands rail all week. In past years high numbers seem to have easily been best, with the very highest being favoured more so.

Yes, some jocks came near side, but few up against the rail. No longer surprised at how sheep-like these guys are.

Bring back Willie Carson. He knew how to ride under the tress etc at Ascot!!