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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13330363 times)
arbboy
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« Reply #103455 on: July 03, 2015, 02:41:12 PM »

John Lloyd talking about the ten greatest servers of all time when putting Raonic into that category but he doesn't even mention the greatest server of all time imo Andy Roddick or Scud.  So much dead wood in the bbc comm's team for me who are picking up easy money year after year (Lloyd and Castle are the top two super annoying ones amongst others).

less painful than the boring chants being rolled out by the aussies on the rail, most boring Ive heard since gloucester rugby fans.

Raonic is barely even the best server in this game.

How do they keep getting prime time seats at all the major show courts for any aussie game?  Secondly they all look like a bunch of aussie back packers so how do they afford them as well?  I don't get it.
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« Reply #103456 on: July 03, 2015, 02:49:36 PM »

John Lloyd talking about the ten greatest servers of all time when putting Raonic into that category but he doesn't even mention the greatest server of all time imo Andy Roddick or Scud.  So much dead wood in the bbc comm's team for me who are picking up easy money year after year (Lloyd and Castle are the top two super annoying ones amongst others).

less painful than the boring chants being rolled out by the aussies on the rail, most boring Ive heard since gloucester rugby fans.

Raonic is barely even the best server in this game.

How do they keep getting prime time seats at all the major show courts for any aussie game?  Secondly they all look like a bunch of aussie back packers so how do they afford them as well?  I don't get it.

Sponsored by fosters to tilt the stuffy wimbledon top brass, their chants certainly sound like something inspired by fosters drinkers.
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« Reply #103457 on: July 03, 2015, 02:53:50 PM »

Green Jersey tdf

one column says

"it's hard to see anything aside from misfortune preventing Peter Sagan from winning it again, and the currently available 2.00 looks value"

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/points-classification

do we agree with that statement. is he a good thing?

he has won it in 12,13 and 14

Points system has been altered this year to try & reward the pure sprinter. So if for example the Cavendish of a few years ago could win 4 stages he would probably win green. However the sprint stages look like they won't go to one single rider, Cav & Griepel, & perhaps Kristoff.

Sagan will regularly be top 5 or so on sprint stages, but will also look for intermediate points. But the biggest factor in his favour is the lumpy difficult finishes where he will always out score the pure sprinters. The only way he does not win is if Cavendish goes on a 3 or 4 stage winning streak or crashes.

Evens is prob value. Likely to go odds on early in the first week. Not for me personally, but Fred has deep pockets at the moment so yes?

yeh, the rule changes were so they wouldn't have a situation where sagan could win green whilst not winning a stage, which occurred last season. He'd won stages the previous 2 years and has looked in good form lately this season, is likely to win a stage (8/13 to win at least one last i checked) and will be in the mix on more stages than anyone else. Disadvantage of changing teams and going to tinkoff means he wouldn't have a train like cav or greipel has, but thats not much of a bother as he's not a conventional sprinter and will just tag onto cav's back wheel. can't see one sprinter winning 4 stages, think cav's over/under is 2.5, likely they'll be shared out by top 5 or 6. I'm a fair bit biased as he's my favourite rider but he'll be targeting the jersey and going for all the points up for grabs every day when others will be hunting stage wins as their main goal, so he's rightful fav
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Tonji
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« Reply #103458 on: July 03, 2015, 03:08:14 PM »

Green Jersey tdf

one column says

"it's hard to see anything aside from misfortune preventing Peter Sagan from winning it again, and the currently available 2.00 looks value"

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/points-classification

do we agree with that statement. is he a good thing?

he has won it in 12,13 and 14

Points system has been altered this year to try & reward the pure sprinter. So if for example the Cavendish of a few years ago could win 4 stages he would probably win green. However the sprint stages look like they won't go to one single rider, Cav & Griepel, & perhaps Kristoff.

Sagan will regularly be top 5 or so on sprint stages, but will also look for intermediate points. But the biggest factor in his favour is the lumpy difficult finishes where he will always out score the pure sprinters. The only way he does not win is if Cavendish goes on a 3 or 4 stage winning streak or crashes.

Evens is prob value. Likely to go odds on early in the first week. Not for me personally, but Fred has deep pockets at the moment so yes?

yeh, the rule changes were so they wouldn't have a situation where sagan could win green whilst not winning a stage, which occurred last season. He'd won stages the previous 2 years and has looked in good form lately this season, is likely to win a stage (8/13 to win at least one last i checked) and will be in the mix on more stages than anyone else. Disadvantage of changing teams and going to tinkoff means he wouldn't have a train like cav or greipel has, but thats not much of a bother as he's not a conventional sprinter and will just tag onto cav's back wheel. can't see one sprinter winning 4 stages, think cav's over/under is 2.5, likely they'll be shared out by top 5 or 6. I'm a fair bit biased as he's my favourite rider but he'll be targeting the jersey and going for all the points up for grabs every day when others will be hunting stage wins as their main goal, so he's rightful fav

hey nell,

any thoughts on stage 1 ITT. Can Tom Dum overturn Martin in front of his home crowd? Malori really good on short TT. Cancellara starting later than all the top TTers & maybe his last Tour, he could risk all for yellow?
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« Reply #103459 on: July 03, 2015, 04:10:37 PM »

Coco 6-2 6-0 over Stosur, a 2/1 straight sets winner

being described as an "upset" :-)

well done Mere.
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« Reply #103460 on: July 03, 2015, 04:10:42 PM »

Coco Vandeweghe beat Samantha Stosur 6-2, 6-0.

I missed the first three games so not really sure how it happened but Vandeweghe went 0-2 down with three double-faults in her first service game.
She then won the next 12 games in a row.

Some of the rallies were a bit longer than I was expecting.


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« Reply #103461 on: July 03, 2015, 04:12:45 PM »

Coco Vandeweghe beat Samantha Stosur 6-2, 6-0.

I missed the first three games so not really sure how it happened but Vandeweghe went 0-2 down with three double-faults in her first service game.
She then won the next 12 games in a row.

Some of the rallies were a bit longer than I was expecting.





 thumbs up


Nice one Mere.
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« Reply #103462 on: July 03, 2015, 04:17:13 PM »

Thank you Mere.
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« Reply #103463 on: July 03, 2015, 04:18:52 PM »

I'm not convinced, but Tiger has had 7 birdies in the first round and is currently T8 on -4.

As this thread is all about value, at 25/30-1 he is probably worth chancing a throwaway £10ew.

Having had a good start, it bucks the recent trend, and if its not the start of something good, there probably won't be a case for him again, certainly not at this sort of price.

Have we done this?  Top player returning to form, prob not a huge liability in the books - seems like standard to me.  Would go betfair I think as EW option not that attractive and we could lay off if he shoots low again today.
« Last Edit: July 03, 2015, 04:21:23 PM by doubleup » Logged
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« Reply #103464 on: July 03, 2015, 04:20:57 PM »

I'm not convinced, but Tiger has had 7 birdies in the first round and is currently T8 on -4.

As this thread is all about value, at 25/30-1 he is probably worth chancing a throwaway £10ew.

Having had a good start, it bucks the recent trend, and if its not the start of something good, there probably won't be a case for him again, certainly not at this sort of price.

Have we done this?  Top player returning to form, prob not a huge liability in the books - seems like standard to me. 

for what? this weekend?

sorry i didn't see the first post
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« Reply #103465 on: July 03, 2015, 04:22:21 PM »

Edited my post £10 on Betfair @ 26 seems ok
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« Reply #103466 on: July 03, 2015, 04:23:58 PM »

Green Jersey tdf

one column says

"it's hard to see anything aside from misfortune preventing Peter Sagan from winning it again, and the currently available 2.00 looks value"

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/points-classification

do we agree with that statement. is he a good thing?

he has won it in 12,13 and 14

Points system has been altered this year to try & reward the pure sprinter. So if for example the Cavendish of a few years ago could win 4 stages he would probably win green. However the sprint stages look like they won't go to one single rider, Cav & Griepel, & perhaps Kristoff.

Sagan will regularly be top 5 or so on sprint stages, but will also look for intermediate points. But the biggest factor in his favour is the lumpy difficult finishes where he will always out score the pure sprinters. The only way he does not win is if Cavendish goes on a 3 or 4 stage winning streak or crashes.

Evens is prob value. Likely to go odds on early in the first week. Not for me personally, but Fred has deep pockets at the moment so yes?

yeh, the rule changes were so they wouldn't have a situation where sagan could win green whilst not winning a stage, which occurred last season. He'd won stages the previous 2 years and has looked in good form lately this season, is likely to win a stage (8/13 to win at least one last i checked) and will be in the mix on more stages than anyone else. Disadvantage of changing teams and going to tinkoff means he wouldn't have a train like cav or greipel has, but thats not much of a bother as he's not a conventional sprinter and will just tag onto cav's back wheel. can't see one sprinter winning 4 stages, think cav's over/under is 2.5, likely they'll be shared out by top 5 or 6. I'm a fair bit biased as he's my favourite rider but he'll be targeting the jersey and going for all the points up for grabs every day when others will be hunting stage wins as their main goal, so he's rightful fav

hey nell,

any thoughts on stage 1 ITT. Can Tom Dum overturn Martin in front of his home crowd? Malori really good on short TT. Cancellara starting later than all the top TTers & maybe his last Tour, he could risk all for yellow?

It seems a toss up between Martin and Dumoulin, so at evens and 3/1 the value would be on Tom Dum. Malori I had been interested in for some ew thieivng, if they had ew top 4 it would be a good punt but top 3 isn't as strong so I'm going off the idea. You like his chances?

I couldn't see Cancellara being quick enough now on the back of an interrupted season. After that its difficult to see any getting competitive, Dowsett is 25's and basically wrote his chances off in an interview I read.
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Tonji
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« Reply #103467 on: July 03, 2015, 04:48:06 PM »

I like Tom Dum's chances, just watched some Team Giant build up videos, & he has had some extra training on the course & Giant seem to be paying an awful lot of attention to the details of TT. Negative will be he starts ahead of Martin. Malori, probably really is 3rd at best, where you can get 16/1 ew 1/4 odds. I've also in the past underestimated Sparticus in the past, when he really wants it!
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« Reply #103468 on: July 03, 2015, 04:48:22 PM »

Edited my post £10 on Betfair @ 26 seems ok

assume this is for the greenbrier

we have £2 at 27 and £8 at 26

top 5 place terms aren't very good. 5.2 top 5 https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/golf/market/1.119300361 so 4-1 the place

fixed odds is around 20-22/1 now paying 5-1+ top 4

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/the-greenbrier-classic/winner

sorry i missed last night's post. 
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« Reply #103469 on: July 03, 2015, 05:09:57 PM »

I like Tom Dum's chances, just watched some Team Giant build up videos, & he has had some extra training on the course & Giant seem to be paying an awful lot of attention to the details of TT. Negative will be he starts ahead of Martin. Malori, probably really is 3rd at best, where you can get 16/1 ew 1/4 odds. I've also in the past underestimated Sparticus in the past, when he really wants it!

I've thought about it a lot, and backing Dumoulin at 3/1 really does make sense, as the ITT is basically a two horse race. The question is for how much? I would not recommend risking more than £20 of Tikay's hard-earned. Also, Cancellara will beat Malori into third IMO. Two races this year against Malori and won both. Plus he is super motivated in what could be his last TdF, and could make a bid to wear yellow after stage 4 if he has a good ITT.
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