Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

I really don't see that it matters whether the official Fred account gets on or not. What's important is that people share their suggestions with others. They, individually, can all decide whether to get on or not.

This is pretty much the case.  What fred gets on doesn't matter.  Every bet should be £50 minimum based on threads current bankroll of circa £10k with a max of between £500 and £1000.  The vast majority of bets should be in the £100-£200 range.  If you are not comfortable having 0.5% of your roll on a bet then you really shouldn't be recommending the bet imo whatever it's price.  We never get anywhere near these figures for 99% of bets.  I think most posters should realise fred has a £10k roll when putting up selections though and put up a bet size in accordance to that rather than a fixed £20 because that is what they bet themselves or that is what they bet at start of fred 4 years ago when fred's roll was much lower.

Most of the time we won't be able to get it on with certain layers anyway but in markets that we can we should focus more on betting %age of the roll.

To put it in poker speak.  If we had a £10k roll we wouldn't be sitting down in a 10/20p cash game with a £20 buy in if we had a 5% edge when we could sit in a £1/£2 game with £200 with the same edge.

[HutchGF]

OK, back to business.

Can we back Thornton tonight, 7/2 best price on BV but would back at 3/1+ based on availability of accounts.

Recommend £20.

Apologies, I tend to skim during arguments. I'm on at 7/2, good luck us.

[tikay]

No ones bets are ignored deliberately. i remember the jordan reed one, which i only saw the morning after. similarly i wasn't in a position to put Tal's bets on last night, wasn't online except by mobile to read but not post effectively let alone c and p bets

i tend to be on all day then log off mid evening at the latest. things then have to wait til the morning after

as to some people's bets being followed automatically, well yes. Successful long term recommenders over many hundreds of bets have auto bet status. sometimes these are discussed but if there is no feedback they'll go on.

i have to say you can come across as rude and churlish, and being so isn't helpful

Well that's great we know where we stand.

For what it's worth my Jordan Reed recc was made at 10am ish and you posted a dozen times between then and kickoff, and made other bets in the meantime.

I really don't see that it matters whether the official Fred account gets on or not. What's important is that people share their suggestions with others. They, individually, can all decide whether to get on or not.

That's a fair enough point, taken on board.

Thanks Matty, appreciated.

We've lost too many good posters already, so I think we need to encourage those who go to a lot of trouble on the thread's behalf. 

[horseplayer]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/euro-2016/bosnia-herzegovina-v-rep-of-ireland

Interesting game tonight

88888 as usual price up more markets than anyone and some very obscure ones. As such there are often gems if you dig hard enough. Dont think the two below are massive ricks but are overpriced on the statistics from this qualifying campaign.

Both of the bets 8888 use Uefa.com match statistics to settle on, i have dug through the stats on that site.

Miralem Pjanic is one of the growing forces in European football maturing slowly but having another good season for Roma, he also has a growing force for the Bosnians especially in the last year.

There is a market for Pjanic to have one or more shot on target. He has played a part in all 10 qualifiers in 8 of these games he has had at least one shot on target.

He was taken off before 60 minutes in 3 of the first 4 qualifiers which would not be great for this bet, however since then he has played the full 90 minutes in all of them become a more integral central attacking force. Infact since the current manager came in last December he has played every minute.

Whichever way the game is going hard to see him not playing the 90 here and having at least one shot on target.

SUGGEST £100 with 888 Pjanic to have OVER 0.5 shots on target at 1/2 (listed under player stats on site)

Glenn Whelan another interesting one in 10 Euro Qualifiers this term he has played 9 of them, if we take out the games against Gibraltar (which i think is fair enough) then he has committed 2 fouls or more in 6 of the 7 games (according to Uefa.com).

Again a key part of the Ireland team especially in the big games very likely to play the full game, he also seems to have a good knack of committing small fouls without picking up cards.

SUGGEST £75 with 888 Whelan OVER 1.5 fouls at 3/5 (under player fouls tab)

[TL900]

Michael Smith 6/4 v Lewis (generally 5/4) thoughts?

I am often blinded in games involving Lewis as I want to oppose him literally every game and still think its hugely profitable to do so in most cases.

Smith was v v impressive vs Chizzy

[Graham C]

They were bigging up Pjanic on SSN this morning, apparently he's the top scorer from direct free kicks this season so far.

[TightEnd]

the 888 bets took some finidng

we had £83 on there

so i split it

£50 Pjanic o0.5 shots at 1.5

£33 Whelan o1.5 fouls at 1.6

[horseplayer]

They were bigging up Pjanic on SSN this morning, apparently he's the top scorer from direct free kicks this season so far.

Yep he is

8888 have him to score a free kick which is ok, however they priced him up at 13s against leverkusen for roma in the champions league a few weeks ago (he scored one) and this game does not have a massive amount of goals in it (imo).

[booder]

David Warner in stunning nick.

[DungBeetle]

Been a while since I updated our spread position so here they are at close out value.  Obviously Charlton couldn't have gone much worse so hopefully they improve under the new gaffer.

Item   Close PL
Watford   75
Charlton   -68
Preston/Leeds   6
Peterboro Index   -60
   
Total   -47

[superwomble]

I have a suggestion for goals in the Yeovil v Stevenage game in Div 4 League Two tomorrow.

Yeovil have conceded an average of 2.0 Goals per Home game (16 in 8 games).
Stevenage have conceded an average of 2.0 Goals per Away game (16 in 8 games)

Yeovil haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their 8 Home games this season, while Stevenage have conceded at least 1 Goal in each of their 8 Away games.

Both teams to score is generally 4/6, 4/7 but at B Vic it is 8/11 - that seems too high to me. Suggest a reasonable sized bet on it.

[TightEnd]

do you prefer BTTS at 8/11 to o2.5 at 10/11?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-2/yeovil-v-stevenage/total-goals-over-under

[fatcatstu]

Whilst looking for some bets I have come across something that looks like an absolute banker.

Parndorf v Wiener in the austrian regionalliga east.
Sorry on my phone, so can't post links

Over 2.5 goals at 1/2 looks like a great bet.

The last 5 games between the 2, 4 of them have gone over 2.5, all Parndorfs last 5 games have gone over and 4 of wieners games have too.

Parndorf are averaging over 3 total goals in their games this season, with wiener going at over 3 as well.

Recommend £80 at 1/2

[TightEnd]

Whilst looking for some bets I have come across something that looks like an absolute banker.

Parndorf v Wiener in the austrian regionalliga east.
Sorry on my phone, so can't post links

Over 2.5 goals at 1/2 looks like a great bet.

The last 5 games between the 2, 4 of them have gone over 2.5, all Parndorfs last 5 games have gone over and 4 of wieners games have too.

Parndorf are averaging over 3 total goals in their games this season, with wiener going at over 3 as well.

Recommend £80 at 1/2

er, i will ask the obvious

what do you possibly know about the austrian regionalliga east?

[fatcatstu]

Whilst looking for some bets I have come across something that looks like an absolute banker.

Parndorf v Wiener in the austrian regionalliga east.
Sorry on my phone, so can't post links

Over 2.5 goals at 1/2 looks like a great bet.

The last 5 games between the 2, 4 of them have gone over 2.5, all Parndorfs last 5 games have gone over and 4 of wieners games have too.

Parndorf are averaging over 3 total goals in their games this season, with wiener going at over 3 as well.

Recommend £80 at 1/2

er, i will ask the obvious

what do you possibly know about the austrian regionalliga east?

I know there is generally a fair few goals, look at European leagues that aren't the main ones as they are where you can find decent odds.

Understand the question being asked though, and definitely understand if it's not put on

If you want I will put a few on, you don't follow them and we see if a track record develops.