Tips for Tikay

[Peter-27]

Just a heads up, FP2 is about to begin, session lasts 90 minutes. I might well be cashing in my Force India spread bet after this session, depends how it goes. Will let you know

[Ironside]

Whilst looking for some bets I have come across something that looks like an absolute banker.

Parndorf v Wiener in the austrian regionalliga east.
Sorry on my phone, so can't post links

Over 2.5 goals at 1/2 looks like a great bet.

The last 5 games between the 2, 4 of them have gone over 2.5, all Parndorfs last 5 games have gone over and 4 of wieners games have too.

Parndorf are averaging over 3 total goals in their games this season, with wiener going at over 3 as well.

Recommend £80 at 1/2

er, i will ask the obvious

what do you possibly know about the austrian regionalliga east?

i know something

its in East Austria

[superwomble]

do you prefer BTTS at 8/11 to o2.5 at 10/11?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-2/yeovil-v-stevenage/total-goals-over-under

I did consider that, but while the teams' goal-conceding rate is high, their goal-scoring rate is not quite so high. 10/11 does still seem a bit big for it though - I'm not sure now! Any other opinions?

[arbboy]

do you prefer BTTS at 8/11 to o2.5 at 10/11?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-2/yeovil-v-stevenage/total-goals-over-under

I did consider that, but while the teams' goal-conceding rate is high, their goal-scoring rate is not quite so high. 10/11 does still seem a bit big for it though - I'm not sure now! Any other opinions?

I think the key thing you have to remember in looking at previous games is two things.  Firstly, the sample size is tiny and isn't necessarily 100% reflective of longer term trends.  Secondly, the goals scored/conceded in previous games takes no account of the opponents and what price each team was to win the game (and therefore how many goals they were 'expected' to score in the game).  The shorter price the fav the more likely goals are in the game obviously.  The game in question here is close to a coin flip and therefore less goals will be expected in a coin flip (7/4 each of two) type of game than any other.

I have no opinion good or bad on these goals bets i just think people need to remember one of the most important drivers of goals in a football match is the relative gap between the price of the teams.  The closer together they are the less likely there are goals all other things being equal.

Bookmakers love hanging out 'juicy' prices on games like this which are coin flips with teams having previous high scoring games as the vast majority of punters just look at the raw scoring stats and don't consider how 'close' each game was and the fact this game is a flip and will be by its very nature a tighter game than their previous games likely were.  

Obviously it could still sail over but the above is worth considering before you smash into a short priced btts.  The spreads only have the game in for 2.7 goals.  There is a reason for that (the above reasons mainly).  There isn't much juice backing btts at 8/11 or shorter on a game with only 2.7 goals expected in it.

[RickBFA]

Taking on board Arbboy's points about BTTS I still like a bet on the Accrington v Newport game.

The price on it is 37/40 with BetV.

Accrington are a form team and scored 11 goals in last 4 games and Newport have improved significantly under John Sheridan, scoring 10 goals in last 4 games.

With some games at prices like 4/6 or shorter I think 37/40 is value, I think they have got this price wrong.

Recommend £30  - should be more using Arbboy's criteria above :-)

[MattyHollis]

Couple of greyhounds stick out for me tonight at Romford :

906 Gortkelly Nidge (T6) - Lovely draw, won last week, price shortening as we speak, 5 railers inside him all the space he needs to the bend. Nap, recc £80 @ 5/2 BETFAIR SB

956 Flemish Status (T5) - Consistent on the clock, has 4 railers inside him and not much pace to the bend either side, hopefully can get a sight at the bunny and take control off the 2nd bend, NB, recc £60 @ 7/2 BETFAIR SB

[exstream]

Taking on board Arbboy's points about BTTS I still like a bet on the Accrington v Newport game.

The price on it is 37/40 with BetV.

Accrington are a form team and scored 11 goals in last 4 games and Newport have improved significantly under John Sheridan, scoring 10 goals in last 4 games.

With some games at prices like 4/6 or shorter I think 37/40 is value, I think they have got this price wrong.

Recommend £30  - should be more using Arbboy's criteria above :-)

No opinion but is 4 games per team a big enough sample size?
good luck

[Peter-27]

Just a heads up, FP2 is about to begin, session lasts 90 minutes. I might well be cashing in my Force India spread bet after this session, depends how it goes. Will let you know

Not yet, maybe after FP3 tomorrow

[RickBFA]

Taking on board Arbboy's points about BTTS I still like a bet on the Accrington v Newport game.

The price on it is 37/40 with BetV.

Accrington are a form team and scored 11 goals in last 4 games and Newport have improved significantly under John Sheridan, scoring 10 goals in last 4 games.

With some games at prices like 4/6 or shorter I think 37/40 is value, I think they have got this price wrong.

Recommend £30  - should be more using Arbboy's criteria above :-)

No opinion but is 4 games per team a big enough sample size?
good luck

I understand your point. I was comparing the odds in this game to others which are much shorter and I'm struggling to see why.

No doubt Newport are a different side under John Sheridan so far and he is producing results and they are scoring more freely. I'm not sure the bookies have priced this in personally. Confidence is a big factor in sport and Sheridan seems to have instilled this in his team, whether it lasts is a different matter but I think this is an important short term factor.

With Accrington scoring 11 in last 4 games and 9 in their last 3 home games (I appreciate the sample size) why the relatively big price?

[arbboy]

Taking on board Arbboy's points about BTTS I still like a bet on the Accrington v Newport game.

The price on it is 37/40 with BetV.

Accrington are a form team and scored 11 goals in last 4 games and Newport have improved significantly under John Sheridan, scoring 10 goals in last 4 games.

With some games at prices like 4/6 or shorter I think 37/40 is value, I think they have got this price wrong.

Recommend £30  - should be more using Arbboy's criteria above :-)

No opinion but is 4 games per team a big enough sample size?
good luck

I understand your point. I was comparing the odds in this game to others which are much shorter and I'm struggling to see why.

No doubt Newport are a different side under John Sheridan so far and he is producing results and they are scoring more freely. I'm not sure the bookies have priced this in personally. Confidence is a big factor in sport and Sheridan seems to have instilled this in his team, whether it lasts is a different matter but I think this is an important short term factor.

With Accrington scoring 11 in last 4 games and 9 in their last 3 home games (I appreciate the sample size) why the relatively big price?

These are the factors bookies might not take into account and we could easily still have an edge.  In this game the fav is odds on and being backed.  This makes the dog slightly less likely to score in the game which will affect the BTTS price (it could be argued this is cancelled out as the fav is now slightly more likely to score in the game).

VCbet seem pretty aggressive on these btts markets compared to other books which automatically makes me wonder why they are being so aggressive as the cynic that i am!

[TightEnd]

Couple of greyhounds stick out for me tonight at Romford :

906 Gortkelly Nidge (T6) - Lovely draw, won last week, price shortening as we speak, 5 railers inside him all the space he needs to the bend. Nap, recc £80 @ 5/2 BETFAIR SB

956 Flemish Status (T5) - Consistent on the clock, has 4 railers inside him and not much pace to the bend either side, hopefully can get a sight at the bunny and take control off the 2nd bend, NB, recc £60 @ 7/2 BETFAIR SB

£60
21:06 Romfd 13th Nov

    5/2
    £210.00
    6. Gortkelly Nidge
    Win

    Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000175

£40


21:56 Romfd 13th Nov BOG

    7/2
    £180.00
    5. Flemish Status
    Win

    Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000176


amounts because that is all we have on betfair sportsbook

[TightEnd]

i have to log off for the evening, won't be popular if i stay on much longer

all the BTTS is being discussed which is good, i am learning some stuff,

will revisit in the morning and do if there is a consensus

[maldini32]

Absolutely love the Pjanic bet Horsey. Great spot

[Newportlad]

Whilst looking for some bets I have come across something that looks like an absolute banker.

Parndorf v Wiener in the austrian regionalliga east.
Sorry on my phone, so can't post links

Over 2.5 goals at 1/2 looks like a great bet.

The last 5 games between the 2, 4 of them have gone over 2.5, all Parndorfs last 5 games have gone over and 4 of wieners games have too.

Parndorf are averaging over 3 total goals in their games this season, with wiener going at over 3 as well.

Recommend £80 at 1/2

Are they showing a lot of minor leage Austrian games in Villamoura Stu?

[horseplayer]

Absolutely love the Pjanic bet Horsey. Great spot

Thanks

Cant say i am to impressed with Bosnia lining up with a centre back in midfield....

We shall see