Tips for Tikay

[McGlashan]

i was sent this last night by McGlashan

AJ bet rec (may cause a headache)
« Sent to: TightEnd on: June 24, 2016, 07:21:30 PM »
   Reply with quote Reply Remove this message
Anthony Joshua makes the first defence of his world title on Saturday night against Dominic Breazeale. My fingers were crossed for Breazeale to be the chosen opponent as he is highly ranked with the IBF but is an over rated big stiff upright lump. He looks every bit the undrafted quarterback convert and is prime for getting stopped early. Bazza doesn't know how this will go 3 rounds and I was thinking more towards rounds 1&2. Whilst it's not a total slam dunk like the Haye spot, AJ has good form for making a mockery of the under odds.

For getting on the shouty red man has low vig and the highest limits. Rec £400 @1/2 on total rounds – within 3
A few non bookies including Russ Wiseman's lot are late entrants with a pick em line of 2 and a half rounds. It's a line I wish was more widely available at an earlier date.

--

£400 at 1/2? deep breath


i am out til 1pm but to double check if i do this

Under 3.5 Anthony Joshua v Dominic Breazeale Total Rounds
4/9

its the same bet, yes?

not sure how much i can get on yet

It would sound less intimidating if I were to of led off by saying 15 of his 16 fights have finished within the first 3 rounds. That seemed slightly misleading given he is gradually stepping up in quality, even although I consider Breazeale a step down.

Go to Ladbrokes - AJ Breazeale - Total Rounds - Total Rounds 3- within 3. It's now 4/9 laying 5.6k to a clean account. The oddschecker layout only confuses matters. U3.5 on oddschecker means under 3 and a half with every firm apart from Lads and Shy who use a within 3 line.

Tighty, if it came across in the pm, please can you post the quote part of the pm. It's a cleaned up version of the boxing thread chatter that'll be easier for people to read.

[TightEnd]

i was heavily restricted anyway, tried for the lot

Under 3.5 Anthony Joshua v Dominic Breazeale Total Rounds
4/9
Total Stake: £56.25
Potential Returns: £81.25


http://www.oddschecker.com/boxing/anthony-joshua-v-dominic-breazeale/total-rounds is the link

[TightEnd]

Last year there was a suspicion AJ was slow rolling when being used as a stand in show headliner. In the 4 minute destruction of Kevin "never been stopped by any of the big names" Johnson we learned even a good chin cannot afford to be hit clean by AJ. Only time will tell how good Dillian Whyte will be, yet he deserves credit for being able to both slip and take a punch. The main takeaway is if you want to go rounds with AJ you need to avoid being hit.

AJ's perfectly aiming that straight left right to where Martin is ducking.

In such a rush to post during the first round of the Charles Marin world title fight I got my left and right mixed up. The punch timing was brilliant, mixing it up either directly at Martins head or the bit of space he anticipated Martin's head to occupy. And it was a custom punch selection specifically for that opponent. AJ had been a flat track bully but to adjust that much showed an incredible level of confidence in whatever they've got going on behind closed doors.  People have been after timing and rubbishing Martin, but to me the first round alone showed team AJ have been massively slow rolling. He's a highly exploitative fighter, perhaps not ready for a GTO crusher, but he'll stack a fish quicker than anyone.

In the emerging betting previews a few places have tipped AJ rounds 3&4, describing Breazeale as  durable and better than Charles Martin, but I've issues with both of those parts. Charles Martin versus Breazeale was schedeled for December 2015 but was cancelled 2 prior when Martin got a call from the IBF. I fancied Martin to win and it's an opinion I stand by if the fight had went ahead prior to Martin getting ruined. It's all because Dominic Breazeale is so easy to hit. His whole set up doesn't look right. His use of reach is terrible and he throws wide short punches. It's horrific the way he leans in when he throws the right hand and he's wide open to a counter punch. Durability will count for nothing if he gets hit clean and bear in mind Fred Kassi hit him at ease and is considered to have won that fight. That's the same Kassi who couldn't lay a glove on Hughie Fury. Admittedly young Hughie Fury is a very skillful fighter and I did a swift u-turn on the Fury's after the win versus Andy Rudenko (a man I tipped up in TFT).

[DropTheHammer]

Our friends at Choral have set their sixes line very low in the Hampshire v Gloucester T20 match at 1:30pm.

Over 7.5 @ evens
Under 9.5 @ 1.88 at triple eight/Uni

^ is a ROI of -3.09% for the chance to scoop both bets if we see 8 or 9 sixes. Seems to be twice as good as the one arbboy priced up yesterday:

Yes for me.  You are paying 7% to scoop both.  So basically backing exactly 10 or 11 around the 14/1 mark to happen.  Too big a price.  Assume similar distribution to football corners which are around 10 or 11 a game.  Exactly 10 or 11 corners is around a 9/1 shot (10%).  Coupled would be a 4/1 (20%) ish shot so you are getting 14/1 about a 4/1 shot imo.

WORD OF WARNING - I have done three of these previous ones put up and our friends have referred me to the trader for the first time ever, and offered me less than the last one I put on (£300). Thankfully they held the line, and price at evens.

Coral dipped out already 1.83

-7.27% ROI meant it was still a +ev bet when there was 8 or 9 sixes in the middle to scoop both, but now the line's been moved to 8.5 now as well, this makes it a worse proposition and possibly a bad bet...?

[TightEnd]

there is a £12,000 TFT Celebration competition starting on Monday

free to enter if you've ever had a bet placed on the thread

bragging rights, a bit of cash to win etc etc

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=67004.0

hopefully mere will put up the categories later

[McGlashan]

Last year there was a suspicion AJ was slow rolling when being used as a stand in show headliner. In the 4 minute destruction of Kevin "never been stopped by any of the big names" Johnson we learned even a good chin cannot afford to be hit clean by AJ. Only time will tell how good Dillian Whyte will be, yet he deserves credit for being able to both slip and take a punch. The main takeaway is if you want to go rounds with AJ you need to avoid being hit.

AJ's perfectly aiming that straight left right to where Martin is ducking.

In such a rush to post during the first round of the Charles Marin world title fight I got my left and right mixed up. The punch timing was brilliant, mixing it up either directly at Martins head or the bit of space he anticipated Martin's head to occupy. And it was a custom punch selection specifically for that opponent. AJ had been a flat track bully but to adjust that much showed an incredible level of confidence in whatever they've got going on behind closed doors.  People have been after timing and rubbishing Martin, but to me the first round alone showed team AJ have been massively slow rolling. He's a highly exploitative fighter, perhaps not ready for a GTO crusher, but he'll stack a fish quicker than anyone.

In the emerging betting previews a few places have tipped AJ rounds 3&4, describing Breazeale as  durable and better than Charles Martin, but I've issues with both of those parts. Charles Martin versus Breazeale was schedeled for December 2015 but was cancelled 2 prior when Martin got a call from the IBF. I fancied Martin to win and it's an opinion I stand by if the fight had went ahead prior to Martin getting ruined. It's all because Dominic Breazeale is so easy to hit. His whole set up doesn't look right. His use of reach is terrible and he throws wide short punches. It's horrific the way he leans in when he throws the right hand and he's wide open to a counter punch. Durability will count for nothing if he gets hit clean and bear in mind Fred Kassi hit him at ease and is considered to have won that fight. That's the same Kassi who couldn't lay a glove on Hughie Fury. Admittedly young Hughie Fury is a very skillful fighter and I did a swift u-turn on the Fury's after the win versus Andy Rudenko (a man I tipped up in TFT).

Ta. If we start looking at prices below 4/9 we may aswell just back the 1x2 prices on Betfair.

[Doobs]

i was heavily restricted anyway, tried for the lot

Under 3.5 Anthony Joshua v Dominic Breazeale Total Rounds
4/9
Total Stake: £56.25
Potential Returns: £81.25


http://www.oddschecker.com/boxing/anthony-joshua-v-dominic-breazeale/total-rounds is the link

Is 5625 really what you can get on with a clean account?  If we have embraced now moved from 10% to 1%, we may as well just empty the account. 

[TightEnd]

i was heavily restricted anyway, tried for the lot

Under 3.5 Anthony Joshua v Dominic Breazeale Total Rounds
4/9
Total Stake: £56.25
Potential Returns: £81.25


http://www.oddschecker.com/boxing/anthony-joshua-v-dominic-breazeale/total-rounds is the link

Is 5625 really what you can get on with a clean account?  If we have embraced now moved from 10% to 1%, we may as well just empty the account. 

i asked for £400, got given £56.25

for ladbrokes, corals etc we are clean on major markets, 12X, outrights ante-post etc.

go to sub markets on nfl eg over/under passing yards, boxing rounds, top cricket scorer, first try scorer etc and we are 10% ish

totally clean accounts we have are very few. betvictor, william hill the two big ones that we would struggle to function without

[TightEnd]

Wimbledon ladies

williams and muguruza then 14/1 the field

wide open beyond serena, as it is most years

could we have some ideas for each way value, quarter winners etc taking into the account the draw please?

each year surprise names break through into the later stages with the spread of ability on flat so spread

then you have the "blue sky" that if serena does falter you get a sweat....

[Doobs]

i was heavily restricted anyway, tried for the lot

Under 3.5 Anthony Joshua v Dominic Breazeale Total Rounds
4/9
Total Stake: £56.25
Potential Returns: £81.25


http://www.oddschecker.com/boxing/anthony-joshua-v-dominic-breazeale/total-rounds is the link

Is 5625 really what you can get on with a clean account?  If we have embraced now moved from 10% to 1%, we may as well just empty the account. 

i asked for £400, got given £56.25

for ladbrokes, corals etc we are clean on major markets, 12X, outrights ante-post etc.

go to sub markets on nfl eg over/under passing yards, boxing rounds, top cricket scorer, first try scorer etc and we are 10% ish

totally clean accounts we have are very few. betvictor, william hill the two big ones that we would struggle to function without

McGlashan said you can get £5625 on a clean account.  If that is accurate we are now on 1%.  I am not sure if we were ever clean on 12X football etc. It was just because our bets never hit the limits.  I'd say 1% is very different as there are so few bets you can get on thar you may as well withdraw your money and leave.  The time spent searching every bet to sometimes be allowed  £2.06 on the Derby favorite just isn't worthwhile.  My paddy shower and shy accounts are barely usable, but this was another level.

[McGlashan]

i was heavily restricted anyway, tried for the lot

Under 3.5 Anthony Joshua v Dominic Breazeale Total Rounds
4/9
Total Stake: £56.25
Potential Returns: £81.25


http://www.oddschecker.com/boxing/anthony-joshua-v-dominic-breazeale/total-rounds is the link

Is 5625 really what you can get on with a clean account?  If we have embraced now moved from 10% to 1%, we may as well just empty the account. 

i asked for £400, got given £56.25

for ladbrokes, corals etc we are clean on major markets, 12X, outrights ante-post etc.

go to sub markets on nfl eg over/under passing yards, boxing rounds, top cricket scorer, first try scorer etc and we are 10% ish

totally clean accounts we have are very few. betvictor, william hill the two big ones that we would struggle to function without

McGlashan said you can get £5625 on a clean account.  If that is accurate we are now on 1%.  I am not sure if we were ever clean on 12X football etc. It was just because our bets never hit the limits.  I'd say 1% is very different as there are so few bets you can get on thar you may as well withdraw your money and leave.  The time spent searching every bet to sometimes be allowed  £2.06 on the Derby favorite just isn't worthwhile.  My paddy shower and shy accounts are barely usable, but this was another level.

They were and still are laying a 2.5k liability. Looks like we are on 1%.

[ripple11]

i was heavily restricted anyway, tried for the lot

Under 3.5 Anthony Joshua v Dominic Breazeale Total Rounds
4/9
Total Stake: £56.25
Potential Returns: £81.25


http://www.oddschecker.com/boxing/anthony-joshua-v-dominic-breazeale/total-rounds is the link

Is 5625 really what you can get on with a clean account?  If we have embraced now moved from 10% to 1%, we may as well just empty the account. 

i asked for £400, got given £56.25

for ladbrokes, corals etc we are clean on major markets, 12X, outrights ante-post etc.

go to sub markets on nfl eg over/under passing yards, boxing rounds, top cricket scorer, first try scorer etc and we are 10% ish

totally clean accounts we have are very few. betvictor, william hill the two big ones that we would struggle to function without

McGlashan said you can get £5625 on a clean account.  If that is accurate we are now on 1%.  I am not sure if we were ever clean on 12X football etc. It was just because our bets never hit the limits.  I'd say 1% is very different as there are so few bets you can get on thar you may as well withdraw your money and leave.  The time spent searching every bet to sometimes be allowed  £2.06 on the Derby favorite just isn't worthwhile.  My paddy shower and shy accounts are barely usable, but this was another level.

They were and still are laying a 2.5k liability. Looks like we are on 1%.

 max £5681 for me 

[Dekka]

I like Gavlar at a big price in the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle later this afternoon (4.15) and I know that trainer William Knight and his stable staff are very confident of a big run.  

Unlike many of today's runners it has won over this marathon distance (3 times) and has good form on all weather surfaces (2 wins at Kempton, 1 at Lingfield).   I backed it last time out at Goodwood when it looked to have every chance before the jockey dropped his reins inside the final furlong.  Despite this it was only beaten just over 2 lengths by Kinema who franked the form by winning a £50k handicap at Royal Ascot next time out.  The Goodwood trip was shorter than today's race and I definitely think it's a case of the further the better where Gavlar is concerned.  I think he's still improving despite being a 5 year old and note that Timeform have this to say about the horse: "consistent but still getting better if anything".

My only previous recommend for the thread was also a William Knight horse (I live locally to the stables and follow him with interest) which got chinned on the line so I am looking to redeem myself here.  

I know Fred can't use Skye but for others they are going 20/1 BOG 1/4 odds 5 places in this race which looks better than the 22/1 4 places available elsewhere.  I'm hoping someone shrewder than me will jump in and let me know if I'm wrong to think this.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/newcastle/16:15/winner

Thoughts please ..

[DropTheHammer]

I'm off to Sittingbourne dogs tonight; if anyone sees anything they fancy (that would be better than me throwing random darts) I'd be grateful.

[arbboy]

I'm off to Sittingbourne dogs tonight; if anyone sees anything they fancy (that would be better than me throwing random darts) I'd be grateful.

It is a BAGS meeting which is covered on bf exchange so take your phone and back anything under bf with the on course bookies would be my simple suggestion.