Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

USPGA Championship 28th-31st July, Baltusrol

looks nice

Click to see full-size image.

about 100 years old, designed by Tillinghast and modernised more recently

bits and bobs

Baltusrol Golf Club is in Springfield New Jersey

has hosted seven U.S. Opens and just one PGA Championship in 2005.

It is a U.S. Open-style course eg accuracy off the tee with penal rough and small greens

Mickelson won the USPGA the last time it was at Baltusrol (when only 9 players finished under par)

this was a Mickelson quote in a betfair preview

"I think that it's just such a fair test that you don't need length necessarily to play well here. I think that Augusta is a course where length is a big factor, no question. But here, the rough is so penalizing - well, the difference between here and Augusta is that the fairways are, one, a little tighter here, and the rough is a lot thicker. If you do hit it into the rough, you are having a very difficult time saving par, so even though you might be a slightly shorter hitter, hitting out of the fairway allows you to get a lot closer to the green and make pars and birdies."

The last four majors have gone to a first timer and 12 of the last 20 winners of this event were breaking their major duck

a bit early days for weather stuff, but as the draw is already out the winners of the masters, us and our open are drawn together as is traditional and have an afternoon draw on day 1 and it is suggested there might be an advantage in being early as tougher weather is due later in the day

i am sure tikay would welcome a few ideas to sweat over the weekend given the above.....

[superwomble]

shields played Seaham yesterday who were one of the better teams in the league last year and destroyed them. Seam scored 2 worldies but could have been 7 or 8-0 to Shields by all accounts.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tL3HmN6b0M8

Not sure if odds are up yet, but if Shields aren't favourites we should definitely lump. Again they were promoted last season so the bookies may not factor this in the odds, they battered a Scottish team in pre season friendly and were 8-1 pre game.

for the second time

markets highly unlikely to be offered on step 9, which feeds into Northern Premier div one north/south

they are too vulnerable to inside knowledge

lowest down i have seen offered in previous seasons is step 7 (eg evostik northern premier, one below conference north)

I saw SkyBet on Twitter say they wouldn't be offering markets on Step 7 this season.

[tikay]

shields played Seaham yesterday who were one of the better teams in the league last year and destroyed them. Seam scored 2 worldies but could have been 7 or 8-0 to Shields by all accounts.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tL3HmN6b0M8

Not sure if odds are up yet, but if Shields aren't favourites we should definitely lump. Again they were promoted last season so the bookies may not factor this in the odds, they battered a Scottish team in pre season friendly and were 8-1 pre game.

for the second time

markets highly unlikely to be offered on step 9, which feeds into Northern Premier div one north/south

they are too vulnerable to inside knowledge

lowest down i have seen offered in previous seasons is step 7 (eg evostik northern premier, one below conference north)

I saw SkyBet on Twitter say they wouldn't be offering markets on Step 7 this season.

Not sure many Firms will, & those that do won't allow much of a bet. It's too exploitable.

[tikay]

USPGA Championship 28th-31st July, Baltusrol

looks nice

Click to see full-size image.

about 100 years old, designed by Tillinghast and modernised more recently

bits and bobs

Baltusrol Golf Club is in Springfield New Jersey

has hosted seven U.S. Opens and just one PGA Championship in 2005.

It is a U.S. Open-style course eg accuracy off the tee with penal rough and small greens

Mickelson won the USPGA the last time it was at Baltusrol (when only 9 players finished under par)

this was a Mickelson quote in a betfair preview

"I think that it's just such a fair test that you don't need length necessarily to play well here. I think that Augusta is a course where length is a big factor, no question. But here, the rough is so penalizing - well, the difference between here and Augusta is that the fairways are, one, a little tighter here, and the rough is a lot thicker. If you do hit it into the rough, you are having a very difficult time saving par, so even though you might be a slightly shorter hitter, hitting out of the fairway allows you to get a lot closer to the green and make pars and birdies."

The last four majors have gone to a first timer and 12 of the last 20 winners of this event were breaking their major duck

a bit early days for weather stuff, but as the draw is already out the winners of the masters, us and our open are drawn together as is traditional and have an afternoon draw on day 1 and it is suggested there might be an advantage in being early as tougher weather is due later in the day

i am sure tikay would welcome a few ideas to sweat over the weekend given the above.....

Just a bit, can't beat a good golf sweat.

[tikay]

We could use some thoughts on Goodwood from our horsey types, too.

Starts tomorrow.

Pretty good week for punting & TV sport, with another F1 GP this weekend, too.

[Tal]

shields played Seaham yesterday who were one of the better teams in the league last year and destroyed them. Seam scored 2 worldies but could have been 7 or 8-0 to Shields by all accounts.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tL3HmN6b0M8

Not sure if odds are up yet, but if Shields aren't favourites we should definitely lump. Again they were promoted last season so the bookies may not factor this in the odds, they battered a Scottish team in pre season friendly and were 8-1 pre game.

for the second time

markets highly unlikely to be offered on step 9, which feeds into Northern Premier div one north/south

they are too vulnerable to inside knowledge

lowest down i have seen offered in previous seasons is step 7 (eg evostik northern premier, one below conference north)

I saw SkyBet on Twitter say they wouldn't be offering markets on Step 7 this season.

Not sure many Firms will, & those that do won't allow much of a bet. It's too exploitable.

It's not just Fred who'd be trying to get £30 on, either. They'd be taking bets from followers and lurkers, which would no doubt add up to a tidy sum, all on a game that the compiler would have very little info on. There's nothing in it for the bookie to price those games up.

[hhyftrftdr]

Man city are now 11/4 to win the EPL.  what price would you be looking for before you get stuck into them?  11/4 looks a big price to me.  They were 11/10 when the market opened.  Don't see too many of the rivals changing their squads too much to justify such a drift.

Concern is Chelsea with no Euro distractions and a very solid new manager, and to a lesser degree united if/when they finally land Pogba.

From what I can gather, Pep has already made an immediate impression on the squad and is getting his ideas across quite nicely. (think Delph said he's learnt more in 3 weeks under Pep than in his entire career, though he isn't the sharpest knife in the draw...)

I think we have at least one more significant transfer in us this summer, more likely 2. There is certainly a buzz about the club that had been lacking in previous years.

[BigAdz]

USPGA Championship 28th-31st July, Baltusrol

looks nice

Click to see full-size image.

about 100 years old, designed by Tillinghast and modernised more recently

bits and bobs

Baltusrol Golf Club is in Springfield New Jersey

has hosted seven U.S. Opens and just one PGA Championship in 2005.

It is a U.S. Open-style course eg accuracy off the tee with penal rough and small greens

Mickelson won the USPGA the last time it was at Baltusrol (when only 9 players finished under par)

this was a Mickelson quote in a betfair preview

"I think that it's just such a fair test that you don't need length necessarily to play well here. I think that Augusta is a course where length is a big factor, no question. But here, the rough is so penalizing - well, the difference between here and Augusta is that the fairways are, one, a little tighter here, and the rough is a lot thicker. If you do hit it into the rough, you are having a very difficult time saving par, so even though you might be a slightly shorter hitter, hitting out of the fairway allows you to get a lot closer to the green and make pars and birdies."

The last four majors have gone to a first timer and 12 of the last 20 winners of this event were breaking their major duck

a bit early days for weather stuff, but as the draw is already out the winners of the masters, us and our open are drawn together as is traditional and have an afternoon draw on day 1 and it is suggested there might be an advantage in being early as tougher weather is due later in the day

i am sure tikay would welcome a few ideas to sweat over the weekend given the above.....

The the year of the Monkey off the Back winners and two top 5 places in the last two majors, I have to suggest a dabble ew on Sergio.

£15 ew?

[DMorgan]

http://www.oddschecker.com/poker/world-series-of-poker/winner

Tighty posted the 'Stars sportsbook odds in the WSOP Thread

Lads are out of line on Griffin Benger at 10/1 which I think is too generous for the best player in the field and he's quickly stacking up televised poker appearances in the GPL.

Rec £50 Griffin Benger at 10/1

[bunnydas8888]

USPGA Championship 28th-31st July, Baltusrol

looks nice

Click to see full-size image.

about 100 years old, designed by Tillinghast and modernised more recently

bits and bobs

Baltusrol Golf Club is in Springfield New Jersey

has hosted seven U.S. Opens and just one PGA Championship in 2005.

It is a U.S. Open-style course eg accuracy off the tee with penal rough and small greens

Mickelson won the USPGA the last time it was at Baltusrol (when only 9 players finished under par)

this was a Mickelson quote in a betfair preview

"I think that it's just such a fair test that you don't need length necessarily to play well here. I think that Augusta is a course where length is a big factor, no question. But here, the rough is so penalizing - well, the difference between here and Augusta is that the fairways are, one, a little tighter here, and the rough is a lot thicker. If you do hit it into the rough, you are having a very difficult time saving par, so even though you might be a slightly shorter hitter, hitting out of the fairway allows you to get a lot closer to the green and make pars and birdies."

The last four majors have gone to a first timer and 12 of the last 20 winners of this event were breaking their major duck

a bit early days for weather stuff, but as the draw is already out the winners of the masters, us and our open are drawn together as is traditional and have an afternoon draw on day 1 and it is suggested there might be an advantage in being early as tougher weather is due later in the day

i am sure tikay would welcome a few ideas to sweat over the weekend given the above.....

Could I recommend Hideki Matsuyama?  Normally very good tee to green and can normally putt them as well.  Is one of the earlier starts in a group with JB and Brian Stuard.  Hideki is normally pretty good, however, his problem is that when he is in a group with the big boys, he tries to out drive them all the time, despite never being able to.  If he just keeps his head down and plays his game, he should do pretty well round here.

Rec £10 or £15 e/w

[arbboy]

Kyrgois is melting down to a 17 year old local kid from Canada (this years junior Wimbledon champ) ranked 370 in the world on sky sports now.  Worth a watch if you are up.  Anything could happen here in the 2nd set given the aussies previous.

You must need to see a doctor if you have backed the aussie in this spot at sub 1/14 pre game  (£400k done pre game at this price) against a home town kid looking to make a name for himself on the real tour having just won junior Wimbledon.  Fuck me.  The aussie is only about a 14/1 shot to walk off the court and quit a game.  His knee is taped as well which is usually isn't.

[arbboy]

This game just had 'break out' game stamped all over it just like Kyrgois's win against Nadal at Wimbledon did a few years ago.  When i first got into the game 15 years ago judges used to say to me  'I couldn't back Safin with counterfeit at 1/6 in a first round match anywhere in the world how do you know he hasn't just turned up to f*ck some barbie dolls and take the appearance money'.  God knows how mad you must be to be backing this Aussie ever at 1/14 against a kid playing on his home town court.

I think this aussie is the most bonkers pro sportsman in the modern era across all sports ( i did say Raonic was a max bet against him at Queens odds against two months ago) looks a huge price now right?  How would you price Kyrgois v Raonic on grass right now?  1/3 Raonic?.  He plays so many points like he is down the park with his mates just fucking around.  The amount of cash on the line for this kid on court (off court as well with Nike etc because he is so marketable compared to 99% of ATP players longer term) if he took these events seriously which he has to to get a ranking where he can ever win a major) is just incredible.  He seriously needs a proper coach asap.   You can't turn up at a masters 1000 event and just take the piss in the first round.  You are leaving so many ranking points on the floor.  He plays games like it is an exhibition without realising the bigger picture.

Some of the shots he has played tonight (at least 20 times) are just mind bending.  This is a huge masters series event where most of the top players haven't bothered to turn up.  The ranking points are just sitting there to be mopped up.  The aussie just doesn't give a fuck.  This kid could be the biggest waste of sporting talent in history if he doesn't sort himself out asap.

He makes baby fed's melt down over the past 2 years with his celeb bimbos a minor story.

[arbboy]

You have to think the Aussie was paid by the organisers to lose that game the way he played to boost the local kids ranking.  He literally doesn't give a fuck. I know that isn't the case but it is hard to believe how a kid who has the sponsors queuing up to pay him 5x what he could earn on the court just doesn't take it seriously in the softest 1000 Masters series event of the year where big ranking points are being handed out for fun with the lack of the big boys turning up that further down the line would massively increase his chance of winning a major with an easier draw.

[DungBeetle]

As mentioned in the other thread by others, I think we should be looking to get with Sheff Weds this season if they secure Abdi.  He's one of those players that is far too good for Championship but perhaps lacking quite enough for Premier League (although he made 30 appearances for us last season).  Wednesday also have a solid playoff squad already in place before additions.  If he stays fit he'll control that team from centre midfield like he did for Watford in the 2013 and 2015 seasons (he was injured most of 2014 when Watford finished midtable).

Newcastle look so strong I imagine it is the promotion odds that will be the sensible one, but I wanted to open it up for debate.

Abdi not comfirmed yet but flew home early from pre-season tour to discuss terms.

[DungBeetle]

Kyrgios served 18 double faults!  That is just handing 4 breaks of serve to your opponent.  Impossible to win with that stat.