Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Even if temporarily, Tft is over £14,000 up as of now and approaching 8% ROI

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eCEvN9MELsUxB81rHuWrfoX3zwIMPQQ205Lcjm3kbgU/edit?pref=2&pli=1#gid=27

[Doobs]

Just for the record.

We got 11/1 on Oceane, because I am still BOG.

I also expect to get the 365 offer on Star Rider, but that only applies to the first £50.  In this case, I had more than 50 on, so fred got no money on at the offer price.  Same applies on Awtaad.

On other occasions, fred has been eligible for the 365 offer.

Just for the record

Boomio. 

[Doobs]

What a great race even if ours seemed to run a but below expected.  Maybe Ribchester unlucky even?

[RobS]

Norwich finishing positions. These %'s are derived from bookmaker prices of Winner, Top 2, Top 6 markets.

1st 10%
2nd 9%
3rd 9%
4th 9%
5th 8%
6th 8%

So top 3 would be 28%. Which is about 5/2, so 10/1ew the ew part would be nuetral ev.
Top 4 is 37%. So if the ew terms were ¼ 4 this would be a very good bet.

To win promotion. 19% automatic plus 9% play offs. Again 28%. So 11/4 for promotion a small piece of value.


Conclusion – Norwich Top 3 5/2 isn't a good bet. Might be a nice neutral ev sweat though, and certainly not terrible.

Arbboy saying it's tough to find value in 24 runner ew ¼ 4, well that must be wrong, whether applied to this market or horse racing. And you wouldnt be having anyone's pants down laying Norwich ew here ¼ 3 (when 10/1 was available). The bookmakers would be giving it away in this market if they went ¼ 4. Agree with what arbboy says 99% of the time, easily the most valuable poster here in terms of gambling knowledge, but think you got this wrong.

Now to agree with Arbboy. 12 runner handicap ¼ 3 or 16 runner ¼ 4.
Imagine the perfect handicap, ie 11/1 each of 12 and 15/1 each of 16, priced to 100%.
The 12 runner place book is 320% about 300%. The 16 runner 337% about 400%. I know which I prefer by a long way, not close at all. Am I missing something here Doobs?

[arbboy]

Norwich finishing positions. These %'s are derived from bookmaker prices of Winner, Top 2, Top 6 markets.

1st 10%
2nd 9%
3rd 9%
4th 9%
5th 8%
6th 8%

So top 3 would be 28%. Which is about 5/2, so 10/1ew the ew part would be nuetral ev.
Top 4 is 37%. So if the ew terms were ¼ 4 this would be a very good bet.

To win promotion. 19% automatic plus 9% play offs. Again 28%. So 11/4 for promotion a small piece of value.


Conclusion – Norwich Top 3 5/2 isn't a good bet. Might be a nice neutral ev sweat though, and certainly not terrible.

Arbboy saying it's tough to find value in 24 runner ew ¼ 4, well that must be wrong, whether applied to this market or horse racing. And you wouldnt be having anyone's pants down laying Norwich ew here ¼ 3 (when 10/1 was available). The bookmakers would be giving it away in this market if they went ¼ 4. Agree with what arbboy says 99% of the time, easily the most valuable poster here in terms of gambling knowledge, but think you got this wrong.

Now to agree with Arbboy. 12 runner handicap ¼ 3 or 16 runner ¼ 4.
Imagine the perfect handicap, ie 11/1 each of 12 and 15/1 each of 16, priced to 100%.
The 12 runner place book is 320% about 300%. The 16 runner 337% about 400%. I know which I prefer by a long way, not close at all. Am I missing something here Doobs?

Something that is quite important but pretty fundemental.  10/1 doesn't exist!  Mythical price now.  If i was forced to back Norwich at 5/2 top 3 or to get promotion at 11/4 i think i explained why the promotion option is preferable.

If any runner is likely to offer value in a 24 runner race with this betting make up then it will always be the 2nd or 3rd favs.  If firms did offer 4 places they would just revert to Paddy's win prices and their place book wouldn't be over broke but you would suck in so many other punters with their ante post multis offering 4 places rather than 3.  The multipled effect of the extra win edge as a layer would mean you would make hay.

SKybet bet the win book to 121% paddy 142% fwiw.  If you offered 4 places and no one else did you would be quite within your rights (and still nick business from other fims from casual punters sold on the 4 places rather than the win price but 3 places - you are just competing with different selling points) to bet the win book to 150% maybe or just go 1/5 1,2,3,4  for 4 places.

[Marky147]

What a great race even if ours seemed to run a but below expected.  Maybe Ribchester unlucky even?

Great race, and yes, Ribchester was certainly finishing very quickly.

[superwomble]

Apologies if I'm missing something obvious here, but if you can back Norwich at 11 each way, therefore getting 3.5 to finish top 3, why wouldn't you back them outright then place the same amount on them to get promoted at 3.75?

Good point. It's a market I never really looked at !

Or just place double the amount win only and not take the bad value place bets.

Maybe so, but if you genuinely thought they'd finish top 3, and were hoping for the lucky scoop of being first, backing them each way when there are better odds to be promoted is madness.

It isn't the same bet though (as explained earlier) although i agree with your point.  They can finish 3rd and not be promoted and you do your money backing promotion instead of top 3.

Don't make the mistake of thinking just because the promotion odds are better than the place odds there is an edge to be gained backing promotion over ew.  It is because the place book % are so bad that makes the promotion odds look good.  There is still plenty of juice in the promotion only books just less than the ew market (because it is such a bad heat to back ew in).

It is like saying i want to back heads v tails.  I can do it one way and get 4/6 or another market offers me 10/11.  It still isn't a bet at 10/11 just because one market is 4/6.

Skybet are top or joint top price 10 teams in their promotion market (way more than any other firm) and their promotion book is still bet to 330%.  Skybet's 150/1 Burton to be promoted is way too big for anyone looking for a huge priced ante post bet.  People are asking for 300/1 they win the league.  They could cop this bet finishing 6th.  Not sure if they will claim palp on this as it is so out of line but they are top price a lot of the rags in this market.  They are only offering 250/1 they win the league.

There's the something obvious I had missed! 

Cheers.

[Doobs]

For those who can get on with Sky, you should note that the 5.25 is a 16 runner race paying 5 places.

I can't really get on with Sky, but am backing Twin Sails anyway.  It is also top price with Sky, which makes it overall a pretty decent bet.

edit. sorry it is 15/2 with Shy, but still a bet with them at 7/1.

edit, wow that was quick, now 7/1 on an unchanged betfair market.

edit, talking to myself a little here, but they are 2/1 about a favourite that is 2.84/2.86 on betfair.  really odd that they changed my horse instead, unless my account is marked or somebody went nuts with them

[Doobs]

For those who can get on with Sky, you should note that the 5.25 is a 16 runner race paying 5 places.

I can't really get on with Sky, but am backing Twin Sails anyway.  It is also top price with Sky, which makes it overall a pretty decent bet.

edit. sorry it is 15/2 with Shy, but still a bet with them at 7/1.

edit, wow that was quick, now 7/1 on an unchanged betfair market.

edit, talking to myself a little here, but they are 2/1 about a favourite that is 2.84/2.86 on betfair.  really odd that they changed my horse instead, unless my account is marked or somebody went nuts with them

ooooh, so close

hello page 8000, congrats Tikay

[Tal]

Top stuff, Doobs.

To celebrate the eight thousandth page, will sir be investing in a fantabulously puntastic wheat mill?

Click to see full-size image.

[BorntoBubble]

Top work on 8000 pages! Really is an incredible thing, it keeps changing but one thing has been consistent.

Making money!

[MattyHollis]

If you can take 7/2 Ela Ela Genie in the 7.26 Hove tonight then do, nice draw, nice price. Had his look at the traps and track last week and ready to win tonight.

http://www.oddschecker.com/greyhounds/hove/19:26/winner

[The Camel]

I believe Abdi to Sheff Wed confirmed for £4 million.  Medical passed.

Wow that is a huge signing.

Excellent player, surprised a Prem team didn't pick him up.

[arbboy]

2nd race at Hove (before sky coverage started) the winner was backed from 140.0 into 25.0 on the machine. (sp 33/1).  They knew!

[arbboy]

Cheers Matty.  Well done son.