Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Palace are 7/5 today.

Have a feeling it's a 1-0 to Palace as Parses has a habit of getting a win in games like these to ease pressure on himself like at Norwich last year.

Bournemouth have had a poor start as have Palace but I just think there is a smidge of value for a small tenner bet.

You also have Zaha who may not even start after his request to hear about a Spurs offer wanting to prove his loyalty to the club. Also a statement wants to be made by Benteke.

It's 7/5 with Ladbrokes. If I get an elder okaying it I will put it on for you with Ladbrokes as I'm not sure you have matchbook or bet365

Go on then

[TightEnd]

Like miss temple city at 7/2 with vikthar in the Woodford reserve at 11.20 at Saratoga  (group 2 race will be on atr)

Got 2 lengths to make on lady eli but the fav maybe a bit rusty after a while away and miss temple city seems a tad better this year.

With the dead eight it's a fair each way heat

Suggest 50 each way if we can get 7/2

3/1 best

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/americas/saratoga/23:20/winner

i have left it unless advised otherwise

[DungBeetle]

With Deeney and Igalho up front Watford seem a bit of value at home to Arsenal  16-5 and 3 -1 available DRAW NO BET

 any thoughts  ?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/watford-v-arsenal/draw-no-bet

Don't really have a view on the price but the front 2 have been poor so far.  Deeney has put on a lot of weight/muscle and it isn't helping his mobility.

[baldock92]

Peter crouch has just been named in the starting XI against Everton this afternoon after scoring a hat trick mid week. He's been priced at 11/1 first goalscorer with Victors and 4/1 anytime goalscorer with Fred. Worth a small poke?

[AndrewT]

Second ODI Saturday at Lords

Pakistan's batting is weak for ODIs. Mixture of inexperience and out of form in the top order

top 4 is

Azhar. captain and going to be favourite. top scorer yesterday
Sharjeel. great if he comes off but bit hit and miss
Hafeez. might as well be batting with a bin lid in his current form. might hit the ball then, but would probably edge it
barbar at 4 is 21, talented lad but at the stage where he's scoring 40s and 50s and not going on for big ones

then we have wicketkeeper batsman Sarfraz Ahmed, batting at 5 who is priced at 10-1 with Ladbrokes.

He scored 55 at Southampton and has over 1100 ODI runs in his 45 career innings to date.

he's the T20 captain, could be in for a lot of overs and scores fast

10-1 is a big price with such a fragile top order above him. Ladbrokes have him down as batting 7 or 8. batting 5 he should be something like 11/2 -6/1

link is

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/england-v-pakistan/2nd-odi/top-pakistan-batsman

Not even a sweat, he made a century - great stuff.

[DropTheHammer]

Congrats all who got on, lovely stuff.

[BigAdz]

Congrats all who got on, lovely stuff.

And Cheers to Peter for Nico pole.

Great start to the punting day.

[Peter-27]

Congrats all who got on, lovely stuff.

And Cheers to Peter for Nico pole.

Great start to the punting day.

Cheers, good start to the motorsport weekend

Tomorrow is going to be absolutely fascinating - many strategy options out there, and you know what that means boys & girls .. VALUE!

Bets coming tonight around 7/8PM ish.

[pleno1]

Any chance Pardew gets fired if they lose this?

[TightEnd]

How did we get on in the challenge cup final?

any man of the match sweats?

[Peter-27]

Congrats all who got on, lovely stuff.

And Cheers to Peter for Nico pole.

Great start to the punting day.

Cheers, good start to the motorsport weekend

Tomorrow is going to be absolutely fascinating - many strategy options out there, and you know what that means boys & girls .. VALUE!

Bets coming tonight around 7/8PM ish.

So much for that .. I really need to stop giving myself deadlines that I break 

Anyhow, bet suggestions:

Race Winner - Lewis Hamilton @ 14/1+. Given that Lewis has the momentum in races, and the array of strategy options available today, as well as the propensity of this track to produce bonkers races, I can't help but feel Lewis could do this. Some firms are offering 17/1 which is FAR too high. I'm doing £20 on this one. Did consider the EW, but not happy at top two.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/winner

Podium Finish - Sebastian Vettel @ 6/4+. Always happy to take over EVS on Sebastian to "podiumvate" when he starts 4th, ALWAYS. £20.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/podium-finish

Points Finish - Pascal Wehrlein @ 11/1. The Manor has been quick in bursts all weekend, given how close the grid is this weekend, if they could find the sweet spot with their tyre temps, points are on the cards. 11/1 is a good price, I would have put it at more like 8/1. Suggest £10.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/points-finish

Leader After 5 Laps - Kimi Raikkonen @ 8/1. Kimi is a Spa specialist and often starts well at this track, 8/1 is silly. Suggest £10.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/leader-after-5-laps

Winning Margin - Between 5 And 10 Seconds @ 9/4. This is the most common margin of victory around this circuit, just don't understand the price above 2/1. Suggest £20.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/winning-margin

Highest Scoring Team - Force India @ 33/1. Thought about this one a lot. 33/1 is the price you would usually get on Force India. However, this is Belgium, and Force India have a car that can compete with Red Bull/Ferrari on race pace. With an array of strategy options available too, the bookies not lowering the 33/1 price is something I don't agree with. Suggest £5.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/highest-scoring-team

Double Points Finish - Sauber/Yes @ 80/1. I don't think any team should be priced this high at Spa, especially when the field is so close pace wise (1.3 seconds covering the field in Q1, excluding Hamilton and Alonso who both had reasons for being adrift of the pack). £5.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/double-points-finish-yes-no

I'm wary about the length of this post, I'll do a second one for other markets, including spreads. I did say there would be value .. 

[hector62]

How did we get on in the challenge cup final?

any man of the match sweats?

Morning Tighty.

With 15 mins remaining Warrington were in control @ 10-0 up and I thought it was a flip between Sandow or  Clark for MOTM. Warrington then stopped playing/imploded and conceded 2 tries, which were both converted by Sneyd. Hull held on to win and I thought the award should go to Danny Houghton, who was immense for Hull in defense throughout the match. Instead they gave it to Sneyd who I thought was pretty average all game. Sneyd had been the 4-1 favourite pre game, but it was a fascinating game.

[Chompy]

Crowley had a treble at Windsor last night and now leads by one. He has a better book than SDS today and again at Epsom tomorrow. Barring injury or a big ban I don't see what stops him from here tbh.

I've had £240 @ 5-6 on behalf of thread.

[Peter-27]

Post #2:

Group B/Group 2 (PER/HUL/BOT/MAS) - Valtteri Bottas @ 6/1 with Skai, or 5/1 with 366. While I don't think this will happen, because Force India have the race pace advantage, 5/1 is too high. £10.

https://www.skybet.com/formula-1/belgian-gp/betType/group-betting
http://www.bet365.com/home/FlashGen4/WebConsoleApp.asp?&cb=10325413028

Group C (BUT/GRO/GUT/SAI/KVY) - Carlos Sainz @ 15/2. A very high price for a drive that is a "safe pair of hands" in a group that will be extremely close. £10.

https://www.skybet.com/formula-1/belgian-gp/betType/group-betting

Group 3 (BUT/GRO/MAG/SAI) - Carlos Sainz @ 5/1. Similar reasoning to above, but with different drivers in the group. £10.

http://www.bet365.com/home/FlashGen4/WebConsoleApp.asp?&cb=10325413028

Also, due to a combination of engine mileage and general driving inconsistency, taking the max price you get get on Palmer, Kvyat and Nasr to not finish the race makes sense to me:

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/not-to-finish-the-race

As for spreads, I've sold on:

- K.Raikkonen/S.Vettel (@ 0, £5)
- N.Hulkenberg/S.Perez (@ -1.5, £5)
- L.Hamilton/N.Hulkenberg (@ 4, £2.50)

Right, I'm done, promise. Probably the most amount of bets I've ever done on one race .. fingers crossed!

[Doobs]

If Hamilton is 16/1 to win, 16/3 to place feels fine.  Him finishing 2nd to Nico seems a likely place his run to the front stops.  Also betfair agrees with me albeit on a quiet top 2 market