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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13332605 times)
Doobs
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« Reply #129135 on: July 19, 2017, 10:35:01 AM »

WSOP " Sorry, this market has been suspended " Coral

let me know if it goes back up please

Back up. Sinclair into 18/1, Ott 25/1.

Pokershares will let you back Ott not to win at 1.07 which is about 1/14 if I understand their odds correctly.  Someone also looking to back Ott at 23/1 on betfair.  Suspect the 14/1 buy price on the exchange is likely closer to correct than the lay price.  So Ott must still be a bet, and Sinclair is getting more borderline.  Think you still get +ev on both.

Wow, just managed to use the coeal website and backed both again without anything going wrong. 
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FUN4FRASER
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« Reply #129136 on: July 19, 2017, 10:37:43 AM »

WSOP " Sorry, this market has been suspended " Coral

let me know if it goes back up please

Back up. Sinclair into 18/1, Ott 25/1.

Pokershares will let you back Ott not to win at 1.07 which is about 1/14 if I understand their odds correctly.  Someone also looking to back Ott at 23/1 on betfair.  Suspect the 14/1 buy price on the exchange is likely closer to correct than the lay price.  So Ott must still be a bet, and Sinclair is getting more borderline.  Think you still get +ev on both.

Wow, just managed to use the coeal website and backed both again without anything going wrong. 

explain  ?
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Doobs
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« Reply #129137 on: July 19, 2017, 10:51:02 AM »

WSOP " Sorry, this market has been suspended " Coral

let me know if it goes back up please

Back up. Sinclair into 18/1, Ott 25/1.

Pokershares will let you back Ott not to win at 1.07 which is about 1/14 if I understand their odds correctly.  Someone also looking to back Ott at 23/1 on betfair.  Suspect the 14/1 buy price on the exchange is likely closer to correct than the lay price.  So Ott must still be a bet, and Sinclair is getting more borderline.  Think you still get +ev on both.

Wow, just managed to use the coeal website and backed both again without anything going wrong. 

explain  ?

This matches my experience of the coral site.

thanks Fraser

i would rather chop both arms off and sit in a vat of acid than go direct to the coral website, last debugged around 2002, but i will have a go

Some days I just can't get a bet on at all, and many others I end up on my phone instead.  Most days I just go straight to my phone as the main site is so bad.  Today, no issues at all.  Maybe they have fixed it? 
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« Reply #129138 on: July 19, 2017, 10:54:04 AM »

https://www.betvictor.com/en-gb/sports/poker/wsop-main-event-2017-final-table/coupons/965500/370548710/849377400/0/0/PE/0/0/0/0/0
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« Reply #129139 on: July 19, 2017, 11:16:07 AM »

Corals Strange outfit for sure ..I got on Sinclair and Ott at 25s and 33s respectively but I went into a shop 

Funny Corals  story ...Last season I went into a shop to put a decent bet on the football premiership where they were joint best price with 7 others.

Of course this is a highly visible market but they still asked the stupid" is he a regular "questions etc etc and then they asked me if I was paying by card and then told the girl behind the counter to ask me for the card so they could read the name ...just so lol .

I refused and I asked if they wanted the bet or not they said " yes " .I then went to place the bet and paid with the card and then after reading my name they offered me half at the price and half at .. xxxx whatever.  "Quite incredible they would do that    Smiley   I walked out they shop without the bet on and they cut the price.

Next day  Hills went stand out price and took all my bet without and questions. WP Hills as it was Man city to win the premiership. 

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« Reply #129140 on: July 19, 2017, 11:28:16 AM »

Haha, good old Coral.

Hard to split Coral, Betway, Sky, VC, 365 and Paddy Power these days when it comes to be utterly tez.

Have £40 on Plymouth to beat Posh on the opening day. General 5-2 fine if we can't get the 11-4 with Sporting. More on why in due course.

Nothing wrong with companies offering 33/1 about 14/1 chances. 

Sitting here hoping the ban hammer isn't going to fall.

Corals have lost touch with reality , part of me wants to say great when you get on a mistake but generally  its hard work  . Im not sure who to blame   the lol traders or directors  ? either way they seem clueless.

On The WSOP its quite interesting that Corals and Ladbrokes prices are now identical ... coincidence  ?  no chance  ! , even though I appreciate its the same generic formula every year for card odds & red or black etc it does make me wonder how these "multi million " betting companies are structured 

https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/poker/nternational/world-series-of-poker/2017-world-series-of-poker/225341410/

Didn't Brokelads and Choral merge last year?
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« Reply #129141 on: July 19, 2017, 11:50:25 AM »

Stoke City

Losing players to teams around them in the PL (Arnautovic, Walters plus Martins Indi has left) with not much coming in (Zouma from Chelsea on loan is one)

The PL has more depth, even mid table sides spending significant sums this summer. Stoke under the Coates family are run somewhat more parsimoniously

Stoke had a poor start last season and recovered.

Hughes is second favourite for first depature

Shaqiri apart (Butland as well),anything in this squad that suggests they won't be bottom six?

https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/stoke-city/kader/verein/512/saison_id/2017

they were always more than the sum of their parts under Pulis, and just about under Hughes but is this the season they might be at risk?

If so, does 7-1 to go down appeal?

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation
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« Reply #129142 on: July 19, 2017, 12:12:05 PM »

Stoke City

Losing players to teams around them in the PL (Arnautovic, Walters plus Martins Indi has left) with not much coming in (Zouma from Chelsea on loan is one)

The PL has more depth, even mid table sides spending significant sums this summer. Stoke under the Coates family are run somewhat more parsimoniously

Stoke had a poor start last season and recovered.

Hughes is second favourite for first depature

Shaqiri apart (Butland as well),anything in this squad that suggests they won't be bottom six?

https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/stoke-city/kader/verein/512/saison_id/2017

they were always more than the sum of their parts under Pulis, and just about under Hughes but is this the season they might be at risk?

If so, does 7-1 to go down appeal?

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation

Calling Arbboy!  It does look bad for them, doesn't it?

My instinct is that Bournemouth are big too at a simlar price, though Defoe must be a positive?  I wasn't at all convinced Swansea were the best value, given their form at the end of last season must have been in line with the likes of some of the lower top half sides.

I would add that I haven't looked at the comings and goings nearly enough to be listened to on this.
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« Reply #129143 on: July 19, 2017, 12:14:48 PM »

to give one example Burnley are second favourites to be relegated, so its assumedlast season's efforts are not replicable.not sure why

Doesn't seem much between the sides quoted around 7-1 to the likes of Watford, Burnley, Swansea to me....

hence my question about Stoke
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« Reply #129144 on: July 19, 2017, 12:36:17 PM »

to give one example Burnley are second favourites to be relegated, so its assumedlast season's efforts are not replicable.not sure why

Doesn't seem much between the sides quoted around 7-1 to the likes of Watford, Burnley, Swansea to me....

hence my question about Stoke

I agree with pretty much everything you say here.

I know Huddersfield have made a lot of changes too, so it is also possible they are too short now.
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« Reply #129145 on: July 19, 2017, 12:44:02 PM »

Stoke City

Losing players to teams around them in the PL (Arnautovic, Walters plus Martins Indi has left) with not much coming in (Zouma from Chelsea on loan is one)

The PL has more depth, even mid table sides spending significant sums this summer. Stoke under the Coates family are run somewhat more parsimoniously

Stoke had a poor start last season and recovered.

Hughes is second favourite for first depature

Shaqiri apart (Butland as well),anything in this squad that suggests they won't be bottom six?

https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/stoke-city/kader/verein/512/saison_id/2017

they were always more than the sum of their parts under Pulis, and just about under Hughes but is this the season they might be at risk?

If so, does 7-1 to go down appeal?

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation

Trying to see this objectively but Stoke didn't have a bad start last year relative to the strength of the early fixtures.  This season will be the same.  They recovered from their 'lol bad start' because they had much easier fixtures later in the season. They won't be a fav to win any of their first 8 games so the 'slow start' theories will hopefully appear again so i can back them at 1/2 again to stay up in the middle of September.  Last season's poor performance was without the first choice keeper/England's future number 1 and the player of the season the year before.  Pretty safe to say this season Butland will add numerous points to our tally staying injury free.

Stoke routinely do their transfer business later rather than early.  There is no way Arnie is being sold for £24m without a plan to upgrade and replace him.  Walters isn't a loss at his age.  Indi wasn't even our player and we had no say over whether he came back or not.  There is plenty of talent in the squad outside of the two show ponies (Arnie and Shaq) who turn up one game in 4.  If i had to sell one for £24m it would be Arnie every time.  He is massively over rated for me but what does £24m buy you nowadays?  I still think Crouch should be starting for Stoke with Allen and Adam in midfield.  If you want to back Stoke to go down i would suggest doing it pre season and you should easily be able to free roll it after a few games. 

Is it value at 7/1?  I think Huddersfield should probably be a 1/3 shot to go down.  There is one space gone.  Swansea could be in total chaos if the wrong players leave.  Burnley going to run like god again at home this season like last season and do nothing away from home just to survive?  Brighton really got the quality to stay in this league?  The one way i would attack Stoke if you don't like them would try to get odds against newcastle v Stoke in a match bet based on the relegation prices.
« Last Edit: July 19, 2017, 12:53:13 PM by arbboy » Logged
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« Reply #129146 on: July 19, 2017, 12:45:26 PM »

What would you price us to be bottom/ bottom 3 after 8 games? Trying to get on a few quid on using these request a bet things a few bookies seem to offer now.

Home to the Arse, United, Chelsea & Southampton
Away at Everton, WBA, Newcastle & Man city

Stoke will not be a fav to win any of those first 8 games.  Maybe close to a flip at home to Soton depending on the summer dealings.

They will be 5/1 dogs at home to Ars, Manure and Chelski roughly.  Probably a 2/1 slight dog at home to Soton.  12/1 away at Man C, 7/2 away at WBA and Newcastle and 6/1 away at Everton.

In points terms they will be in for roughly 0.7 points as a 5/1 home dog in those 3 games.  Soton 1.3 points.  Man City 0.4 points.  WBA/Newc 0.9 points each.  Everton 0.6 points.  Therefore expected points roughly in first 8 games is around 6.2 points.  So when Stoke have had a awful start according to the media and sit on 7 points after 8 games looking like they are struggling remember they are less likely to go down than they were pre season because they will be ahead of the EV curve.  The price will not relate to this however.  Hopefully they will be sat on 3 points (only 3 behind expectations) and it will be 'another terrible start from Hughes and his slow starters and we will be sub 2/1 to go down.

My post on the Stoke thread earlier in the summer regarding 'lol bad starters'
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« Reply #129147 on: July 19, 2017, 12:47:12 PM »

WSOP " Sorry, this market has been suspended " Coral

let me know if it goes back up please

Back up. Sinclair into 18/1, Ott 25/1.

Pokershares will let you back Ott not to win at 1.07 which is about 1/14 if I understand their odds correctly.  Someone also looking to back Ott at 23/1 on betfair.  Suspect the 14/1 buy price on the exchange is likely closer to correct than the lay price.  So Ott must still be a bet, and Sinclair is getting more borderline.  Think you still get +ev on both.

Wow, just managed to use the coeal website and backed both again without anything going wrong. 

explain  ?

This matches my experience of the coral site.

thanks Fraser

i would rather chop both arms off and sit in a vat of acid than go direct to the coral website, last debugged around 2002, but i will have a go

Some days I just can't get a bet on at all, and many others I end up on my phone instead.  Most days I just go straight to my phone as the main site is so bad.  Today, no issues at all.  Maybe they have fixed it? 

Take it back.  Now trying to bet on Stoke to get relegated and failing miserably.  Tried both explorer and chrome.   Off to load it up on the phone.
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« Reply #129148 on: July 19, 2017, 03:48:00 PM »

Stoke City

Losing players to teams around them in the PL (Arnautovic, Walters plus Martins Indi has left) with not much coming in (Zouma from Chelsea on loan is one)

The PL has more depth, even mid table sides spending significant sums this summer. Stoke under the Coates family are run somewhat more parsimoniously

Stoke had a poor start last season and recovered.

Hughes is second favourite for first depature

Shaqiri apart (Butland as well),anything in this squad that suggests they won't be bottom six?

https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/stoke-city/kader/verein/512/saison_id/2017

they were always more than the sum of their parts under Pulis, and just about under Hughes but is this the season they might be at risk?

If so, does 7-1 to go down appeal?

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation

Calling Arbboy!  It does look bad for them, doesn't it?

My instinct is that Bournemouth are big too at a simlar price, though Defoe must be a positive?  I wasn't at all convinced Swansea were the best value, given their form at the end of last season must have been in line with the likes of some of the lower top half sides.

I would add that I haven't looked at the comings and goings nearly enough to be listened to on this.

Also added Begovic and Ake (on loan last yr) from Chelsea.
No departures to date.
Generally very settled and happy squad under Howe. About to build a new larger stadium next door.....so cant afford to go down  Smiley
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« Reply #129149 on: July 19, 2017, 04:50:05 PM »

https://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/football/domestic-premier-league/group_a.7e4187d6-9e42-4bb0-9bde-779fd4019f61/premier-league-points-2017-18

Worth a look prior to diving into relegation bets i would imagine.
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