Tips for Tikay

[BigAdz]

Nice one Tal

Finally convinced I should never post on here again. 

You will find me supersticiously sticking my fancies on the racing and golf threads in future

[Tal]

Well done Ant

[Doobs]

FWIW I've backed a few but Withhold the strongest.

Click to see full-size image.

Good stuff Tal.

Was right on Man City too.  Weren't ever winning 4-0 

Keep plugging away Adz. 

[Chompy]

Kieffer scores again. First FL player to hit double figures this season and liking this spot a lot. Gets a bunch of chances every game and Rotherham will be right up there.

Pitman injured and Marriott...well I can't talk about anything Poshie-based at the moment, other than to say McCANN OUT!

[Chompy]

Btw, thanks to whoever flagged up Man City to score 100+ and Watford on the handicap. Both are now officially sweats.

[Ant040689]

Well done Ant

Yehhhh in shock right now. Sakho easing pressure with passing it out from the back and Zaha adding bite up top, everyone else stepped their game up in response. Chelsea should have made it 2-2 before we missed good chances, Morata injured a huge blow for them.

Benteke should be scared as he wasn't missed with the more fluid system played today by Townsend and Zaha and hope when he comes back he can add to things rather than flatten them as he has done somewhat this season.

Awesome. I was in the crowd today. Both goals treated like the "peace be with you" routine from the Catholic mass childhood upbringing, but instead of handshakes, hugs were being dished out. One after the other, I was involved 4 random hugs with strangers then a 5th one teed up and I was like, ah go on then.

Hopefully a start if things to come.

Back to the point of the thread and with how Newcastle are much less likely to be as attacking as Chelsea I expect the tempo to be slower and the game tight despite the heroics today and the return of the much missed Zaha.

Just looked at the future odds and they are all a bet. Tottenham, Newcastle, west ham. But know thread will have trouble getting on.

3/1 ish away to Newcastle next week is worth a go, as is the 10/1 away to Spurs and the 6/4 at home to West Ham. All prices that if Zaha and Sakho stay fit should reduce come game time. Trouble is getting on for Fred but for the rest who can I think they're worth a pop.

[Chompy]

11-1 away at the Harry Kane team seems big innit?

Spurs have one Wembley league game before then, against Liverpool. Every chance they don't win that and the pressure continues to grow.

[Tal]

11-1 away at the Harry Kane team seems big innit?

Spurs have one Wembley league game before then, against Liverpool. Every chance they don't win that and the pressure continues to grow.

Dele badly out of form at the moment. Hasn't played well all season. Having too much fun to work on his distribution, it seems.

Dembele will be a big return for us. He and Wanyama are likely to be back for the Palace game. Doubt Rose and Lamela will be back by then, although both are doing light training.

[Ant040689]

11-1 away at the Harry Kane team seems big innit?

Spurs have one Wembley league game before then, against Liverpool. Every chance they don't win that and the pressure continues to grow.

I'm limited in my knowledge of other teams but do ok predicting how Palace would fare to a "type" of team that may be similar to a team we've already faced.

We can struggle against the teams that sit back but over and over again Palace can prove value against teams that come to them and Palace can respond very well on the counter. And it tees up value land against the bigger boys considering the huge odds.

Add in our previous record this season without the Zaha Sakho combo, which would weight oddsmakers to still go against Palace quite a lot, it should set up a betting opportunity. Even without them, don't quote me on this but I think we were 15th in the table for expected goals before today, which highlights perhaps awful variance, as well as awful finishing but at least some of the former.

So yep I like the bet.

Sounds like Spurs struggled today then? I assumed despite it being "only" one nil it would be a releasing of the shackles moment for their hoodoo with Wembley and them kicking on like a powerhouse?

But after your review Tal I guess it's not so clean cut.

Despite what I have said value I think lies in the other two fixtures but I suppose a better spot with Spurs.

[Jamier-Host]

It's a RAB on shy so not for here, but wouldn't put off anyone having a little poke on City to score 100+ league goals at 40/1 this season.

Managed 102 in the title winning season of 2013/14 with an inferior squad and manager (Dzeko, Jovetic, Negrado weren't mugs but our forward thinking contingent currently is off the scale) We all know about the attacking talents at our disposal, more importantly we know have 2 full backs capable of bombing forward and offering a genuine threat, particularly Mendy who is a beast of a player.

I think we're gonna batter some teams this season, Pep rarely settles for a 1-0 or 2-1. Anyone who watched us regularly last season will attest to how many clear cut chances we scorned, so the forward players will need to sharpen their shooting boots to hit 3 figures but its not beyond the realms of possibility, far from it IMO.

Might still be a Sanchez or Mbappe sized addition to come too.....

If you wanna play it safe then 5/4 for 80+, easy way to more than double your investment.

As Chompy just said, good shout this one and certainly not 40/1 any more despite a long way still to go.

[Tal]

11-1 away at the Harry Kane team seems big innit?

Spurs have one Wembley league game before then, against Liverpool. Every chance they don't win that and the pressure continues to grow.

I'm limited in my knowledge of other teams but do ok predicting how Palace would fare to a "type" of team that may be similar to a team we've already faced.

We can struggle against the teams that sit back but over and over again Palace can prove value against teams that come to them and Palace can respond very well on the counter. And it tees up value land against the bigger boys considering the huge odds.

Add in our previous record this season without the Zaha Sakho combo, which would weight oddsmakers to still go against Palace quite a lot, it should set up a betting opportunity. Even without them, don't quote me on this but I think we were 15th in the table for expected goals before today, which highlights perhaps awful variance, as well as awful finishing but at least some of the former.

So yep I like the bet.

Sounds like Spurs struggled today then? I assumed despite it being "only" one nil it would be a releasing of the shackles moment for their hoodoo with Wembley and them kicking on like a powerhouse?

But after your review Tal I guess it's not so clean cut.

Despite what I have said value I think lies in the other two fixtures but I suppose a better spot with Spurs.

I don't buy the wembley thing, and nor do Dortmund. Spurs don't have enough key players offensively fit and in form: Eriksen is playing well and Kane has got rid of his August boots, but we are otherwise impotent in scoring and creating. Davies (ill today) has played reasonably, but he's not Danny Rose (who's off to United in January, we presume). Winks isn't Dembele or Dele. Son doesn't look like scoring 20 goals this season yet. Sissoko devoid of confidence.

Defensively, Sanchez looks an excellent signing.

So, with two 20 goal guys not firing and little being created, the under 2.5 goals market is probably the best bet for us at Wembley, week on week, really. Against low scoring opposition, anyway.

When the injuries return and the midfield attack gets going, we will be formidable...and we are third now. Until then, though, can't put you off.

[Chompy]

Visiting teams believe they can go to Wembley and win though, that's the thing. Belief is mahoosive in this game. I know that all too well from watching Posh under McCann.

For those that can, Evens Bristol Rovers to finish above Poshies is a bet with Scuy.

Only clown firms have prices at the moment on Spurs v Palace, but for which it would have had to go up as a bet.

Great shout City hhhtyfytydtfysyftrr. At current rate they're on for 138 league goals. Obviously they can't keep up this pace, but the bet is probably no worse than a flip now. 29 through eight games is ridic.

[Peter-27]

Overdue? He had enough of those last season.

Lewis only had two DNF's last season, which was very, very good when compared with everyone else.

apart from Nico... 

7/1 isn't even a great price on either of the Mercedes to retire.  Betting on something because it hasn't happened for a while seems like wonky thinking.   

Indeed. Nico had one. Ricciardo actually finished every race, and Perez classified in every race.

Not sure I entirely agree, law of averages suggests every car will have at least one mechanical failure during the season. I think I would always be happy to take 7/1 at this stage of the season on a car which has yet to suffer retirement. Happy to be convinced otherwise though, as I'm not 100% confident in my logic there.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_averages


Depending on context or application it can be considered a valid common-sense observation or a misunderstanding of probability. This notion can lead to fallacious thinking when one becomes convinced that a particular outcome must come soon simply because it has not occurred recently

At the start of the season, you can look at all the stats and decide Lewis is going to retire one race in ten (or whatever it is), so the odds on a retirement is 9/1.  If he doesn't retire in the first 9 races, that doesn't mean he is "due one" in the next race.  The odds are still going to be 9/1.  If anything, you could learn that maybe the Mercedes has got even more reliable than you thought, and that 9/1 is now too short.  There are always going to be occasions where retirement is more likely; like if the track is attritional, like Monaco; or the weather is really hot; or maybe the engine is reaching the end of its expected lifespan, but none of those will be because he is "due one".

I would say that the law of averages is right up there with "Momentum" as a bad reason to make a bet.  Will leave the momentum one to Camel, I can't hear that word in a commentary without thinking of The Camel these days.       

I understand the principle of the law of averages, and I can't directly argue with anything you've said. However, I think you've completely skimmed over a key component, cumulative effect. This isn't red/black roulette scenario because car components (at least the ones that are carry over) degrade over time which directly increases the chance of a failure at the next race. Of course I don't know Mercedes' component rotation, but I could take an educated guess, and I would be certain that many components have been on that car since the season began. It's worth noting that the component reconditioning process only happens following a shunt or reliability issue due to logistics.

Perhaps another much simpler way of looking at it is that if you look back through history, it's fairly rare for a driver to go a whole season without a retirement during a circa 20 race season. The last five times this happened was:

Daniel Ricciardo - 2016
Max Chilton - 2013
Kimi Raikkonen - 2012
Nick Heidfeld - 2008
Michael Schumacher - 2002

Although, you could make the argument that reliability on the whole is consistently improving as time passes and technology develops, so who knows. I still feel like 7/1 was value though.

[BigAdz]

Overdue? He had enough of those last season.

Lewis only had two DNF's last season, which was very, very good when compared with everyone else.

apart from Nico... 

7/1 isn't even a great price on either of the Mercedes to retire.  Betting on something because it hasn't happened for a while seems like wonky thinking.   

Indeed. Nico had one. Ricciardo actually finished every race, and Perez classified in every race.

Not sure I entirely agree, law of averages suggests every car will have at least one mechanical failure during the season. I think I would always be happy to take 7/1 at this stage of the season on a car which has yet to suffer retirement. Happy to be convinced otherwise though, as I'm not 100% confident in my logic there.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_averages


Depending on context or application it can be considered a valid common-sense observation or a misunderstanding of probability. This notion can lead to fallacious thinking when one becomes convinced that a particular outcome must come soon simply because it has not occurred recently

At the start of the season, you can look at all the stats and decide Lewis is going to retire one race in ten (or whatever it is), so the odds on a retirement is 9/1.  If he doesn't retire in the first 9 races, that doesn't mean he is "due one" in the next race.  The odds are still going to be 9/1.  If anything, you could learn that maybe the Mercedes has got even more reliable than you thought, and that 9/1 is now too short.  There are always going to be occasions where retirement is more likely; like if the track is attritional, like Monaco; or the weather is really hot; or maybe the engine is reaching the end of its expected lifespan, but none of those will be because he is "due one".

I would say that the law of averages is right up there with "Momentum" as a bad reason to make a bet.  Will leave the momentum one to Camel, I can't hear that word in a commentary without thinking of The Camel these days.       

I understand the principle of the law of averages, and I can't directly argue with anything you've said. However, I think you've completely skimmed over a key component, cumulative effect. This isn't red/black roulette scenario because car components (at least the ones that are carry over) degrade over time which directly increases the chance of a failure at the next race. Of course I don't know Mercedes' component rotation, but I could take an educated guess, and I would be certain that many components have been on that car since the season began. It's worth noting that the component reconditioning process only happens following a shunt or reliability issue due to logistics.

Perhaps another much simpler way of looking at it is that if you look back through history, it's fairly rare for a driver to go a whole season without a retirement during a circa 20 race season. The last five times this happened was:

Daniel Ricciardo - 2016
Max Chilton - 2013
Kimi Raikkonen - 2012
Nick Heidfeld - 2008
Michael Schumacher - 2002

Although, you could make the argument that reliability on the whole is consistently improving as time passes and technology develops, so who knows. I still feel like 7/1 was value though.

Based on your synopsis, I understand your point, but I think it is more of a value spot to continue backing until it drops, as long as you suspect it will continue to be 7-1 or greater for the remaining races?

[Peter-27]

That was indeed the intention, until this debate started anyway 

On a different topic, what are everyone's experiences of Blacktype?