Tips for Tikay

[vegaslover]

Alaphilippe is favourite to defend the KOM jersey he won last year. Are we thinking he will abandon the quest for that because of the big climbs? However I think he will go for it again, so surely he can't go for green and polka dot?

If indeed you think he goes for Green then surely you must bet someone in the Polka Dot market. If you think he doesn't suit the big mountains then perhaps you want to take him on anyway?

https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/king-of-the-mountains

Le Tour de France

Cycling isn't my field of expertise. I only follow the big tours, so keeping this modest as a recommendation.

Points Classification is the "maillot vert" for the sprinters.

https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/points-classification

Sagan is dominant but 4/9.

This year's tour is absolutely brutal: the first half is flat, with a time trial and some bunch sprints, but to win the green jersey you have to finish the whole tour.

The second half is utterly rotten, including three hideous days in the alps (stages 18, 19 and 20) where the riders will spend much of it over 2,000 feet above sea level and will visit the Col de l'Iserian, which isn't often on the schedule.

https://amp.theguardian.com/sport/2019/jul/01/tour-de-france-2019-stage-by-stage-guide

Basically, the schedulers this year are trying to kill the pure sprinters. Some will be finishing their Tour at halfway and heading home. All riders have to finish within a time period of the winner and that usually kills sprinters off in tough mountain years. This is despite recent efforts to relax the time requirement.

Sagan sadly can climb but injuries happen and i can't touch 4/9. Ewan is a flat sprinter and he and Groenewegen can't be odds on to finish the tour.

I expect a lot of sprinters to exit around stage 12, either by their own decision or in the latter stages through the stopwatch. This makes the race shape juicy, if we can find the right guy, because there are effectively DNFs in the market.

The schedulers are trying to get a climber who happens to have a good kick in a finish to have a chance of toppling Sagan. Now there just happens to be one who just so happens to be (checks notes) French. None of this is a secret, but last year's King of the Mountains will relish the intermediate sprints in the latter stages. If he can pick up a stage win in the first half, he will be a serious contender. Barring injury, he will be competing for a place in something in the later stages. As a points collector (rather than pure race winner), he is the sort of guy we want onside.

And we get 6.25/1 he gets a place in the points, with a shot at 25/1 he's wearing green on the Champs Elysées.

Julian Alaphillipe, s'il vous plaît.



£20 each way with Billy Mountains, Betwhey or Beteveryday.

Allez!

I don't have a strong view on KOM. There's a few guys with chances in that and Alaphillipe being fav to defend makes sense. Winning both would obviously be outrageous. I wonder whether Quickstep might give Mas a go at KOM, because the schedule might be a bit much for someone who isn't a pure climber.

Lazy thing to do is pick a Columbian.

I prefer Alaphillipe at 25/1 for Green for EW value to any of the KOM prices.

The main KOM and GC contenders pick up a lot of sprint points naturally as the points get mainly awarded at the end of races, albeit less for the summit finishes.
Bets a good shout.
Sagan probably value at 4/9 too

[youthnkzR]

If you were going to oppose the favs (tommy top boy/Molly top girl) it has to be molly really.  She is 'all in' on Tommy effectively.  Tommy has the 'run it twice' option of the surfer chick should Molly and him not work out.   Of the top favs i would much rather oppose Molly and think Molly should be a bigger price than Tommy for the top sex markets for this reason.  Don't think this has been factored in either.

I disagree. I think tommy is in same situation. I also don’t think lucie can win. Regardless, based on your scenario wouldn’t it be better to throw  a saver on tommy/lucie @ 66s oppose tommy with two picks we agree have odds which are way ool rather than a wide open woman’s field?

[scotty2hatty]

I couldn't have written a better 'detailed' summary than that myself.  I certainly couldn't have typed that in ten minutes either.   If ii was going to have 3 bets they would be the three you suggested.   I pretty much agree on everything you have stated on people who can't win as well.  

Anton and Maura somehow get together and have an celtic couple up and win.   The early days run bad endears them to the public.  

Twist I can see coming in the future is Elma getting thrown back in the villa. Anton x Elma couple would romp home imo. She was extremely unfortunate to be eliminated last time but had to go ahead of Anton.

Anything to back this up? Or just a guess?

[StuartHopkin]

I couldn't have written a better 'detailed' summary than that myself.  I certainly couldn't have typed that in ten minutes either.   If ii was going to have 3 bets they would be the three you suggested.   I pretty much agree on everything you have stated on people who can't win as well.  

Anton and Maura somehow get together and have an celtic couple up and win.   The early days run bad endears them to the public.  

Twist I can see coming in the future is Elma getting thrown back in the villa. Anton x Elma couple would romp home imo. She was extremely unfortunate to be eliminated last time but had to go ahead of Anton.

Anything to back this up? Or just a guess?

Can't see Elma going back in after admitting she lied about her age!

[scotty2hatty]

I couldn't have written a better 'detailed' summary than that myself.  I certainly couldn't have typed that in ten minutes either.   If ii was going to have 3 bets they would be the three you suggested.   I pretty much agree on everything you have stated on people who can't win as well.  

Anton and Maura somehow get together and have an celtic couple up and win.   The early days run bad endears them to the public.  

Twist I can see coming in the future is Elma getting thrown back in the villa. Anton x Elma couple would romp home imo. She was extremely unfortunate to be eliminated last time but had to go ahead of Anton.

Anything to back this up? Or just a guess?

Can't see Elma going back in after admitting she lied about her age!

Wasn't that misquoted? I think they knew her age but she meant that she would always lie about her age in general life but now that she's been on the show she can't any more. Maybe not, that was how I read it though.

[youthnkzR]

I couldn't have written a better 'detailed' summary than that myself.  I certainly couldn't have typed that in ten minutes either.   If ii was going to have 3 bets they would be the three you suggested.   I pretty much agree on everything you have stated on people who can't win as well.  

Anton and Maura somehow get together and have an celtic couple up and win.   The early days run bad endears them to the public.  

Twist I can see coming in the future is Elma getting thrown back in the villa. Anton x Elma couple would romp home imo. She was extremely unfortunate to be eliminated last time but had to go ahead of Anton.

Anything to back this up? Or just a guess?

A complete guess based on what has happened previous years (producers reintroducing people). Elma going in makes complete sense to me, especially because she was so unfortunate to be removed in the first place. Give Anton a few days with Belle and bam, throw her into the mix.

[Juperjiper]

Curtis to redeem himself to the public with Maura!

[bergeroo]

Have to oppose the hype train 15 year old Gauff today at Wimbledon. Her opponent Polona Hercog has a big serve and in theory a game suited to grass with only losses to Riske and Halep so far this season - we can never really tell with the grass season so short.

2.5 for Hercog seems like madness to me.

https://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/wimbledon/womens/polona-hercog-v-cori-gauff/winner


Riske through to the third round after another three set thriller. It doesn't get any easier from here with her possible draw. Bencic, Barty and then Serena. Truly one of the toughest quarters of any Women's Grand Slam in recent memory.

[Doobs]

Have to oppose the hype train 15 year old Gauff today at Wimbledon. Her opponent Polona Hercog has a big serve and in theory a game suited to grass with only losses to Riske and Halep so far this season - we can never really tell with the grass season so short.

2.5 for Hercog seems like madness to me.

https://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/wimbledon/womens/polona-hercog-v-cori-gauff/winner


Riske through to the third round after another three set thriller. It doesn't get any easier from here with her possible draw. Bencic, Barty and then Serena. Truly one of the toughest quarters of any Women's Grand Slam in recent memory.

Got to agree on Hercog.  Gauff is pretty short in the overall too.  She shouldn't be favourite against the winner of Halep/Azarenka who are both longer in the overall.  They do meet each other in this round, but I think the odds imply Gauff starts favourite against either if she gets through.   

[RickBFA]

Hercog bottling this match unfortunately atm

[scotty2hatty]

Hercog bottling this match unfortunately atm

That was far from ideal. Looked so comfortable.

[Peter-27]

thinking out loud

Leicester have signed Ayoze Perez. 12 goals last season. Newcastle's next highest scorer was a centre back. Was on a long term contract, so no compulsion to sell that i could tell

Benitez has gone

Ashley hasn't sold, and if he doesn't do so by end of August they can't strengthen to January

New manager? arteta is the favourite https://www.oddschecker.com/football/manager-specials/newcastle-utd/next-permanent-manager

Bottom end of the Premier league looks stronger this year i think. Norwich are a decent side, Villa will spend. Not too many Huddersfields and Cardiff's around. Question marks about Palace post Zaha, Brighton etc for sure, plus Sheff U should struggle

Newcastle 7/2 to go down? yes? too short? anything could happen?

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation

Peter27 put them up at 5/1 last week, but I don't know if that was a real price or just an oddschecker glitch (oddschecker had others at about 7/2, and I couldn't see betvictor from the States).  I can't be sure now, but weren't Newcastle bad on the stats and Bernitez ran good too?

Bergeroo put up player C at 3/1 in the tennis for highest in end year ATP rankings with BFSB.   I don't know if still available, but player A (1/6) is out at Wimbledon, and player C is looking good (2-0 up in sets and has been well on top, but likely a tiebreak in this one - see BBC2 for player C).

5/1 was real as I'm on it. There was a time when most bookies were 5/1 before I made the post.

Our defence was extremely organised under Benitez. However, the same players were dreadful pre-Benitez. I suppose it depends how the new manager sets them up, but in my mind they certainly won't be as good as under Rafa. We have one of the weakest squads in the EPL across the entire field. I don't see where the goals will come from, and I don't see how the defenders will be able to keep them out. Dubravka (GK) is the only position on the pitch I feel comfortable about. Feel like 7/2 does represent some value.

[scotty2hatty]

Just Barty up next for Riske.

[bergeroo]

Just Barty up next for Riske.

Really gutsy from Riske today. She is a great clutch player. If only she had a serve!

Will be tough against Barty and I don't expect her to win, but fingers crossed!

[Ironside]

Get the risks in there