Independence Referendum

[Doobs]

http://wingsoverscotland.com/if-newspapers-told-the-truth-for-one-day/

Ooh the irony

Anybody else always reminded of the Nazi Eagle when visiting that site?

65 pages in and Godwin's Law strikes.

I think most folks would have bought at <20

Ha I wasn't saying his views were reminiscent of Hitler, was just commenting on that symbol he uses.   

[Eck]

"The Governor noted that £15bn would be at the 'upper end of the range' that Scotland might reasonably inherit as reserves. Scotland would need a multiple of that.

Can you please explain something to me (genuine question apologies if it is a daft question):

If Scotland are to expect £15bn as their fare share of the reserves of the BOE and for a country our size a lender of last resort would need c£150bn (sure I read that as a number somewhere) due to the size of our GDP. Does this mean that the BOE reserves are currently far too little going by the same criteria for the UK or are we not getting our fair share?

[TightEnd]

"The Governor noted that £15bn would be at the 'upper end of the range' that Scotland might reasonably inherit as reserves. Scotland would need a multiple of that.

Can you please explain something to me (genuine question apologies if it is a daft question):

If Scotland are to expect £15bn as their fare share of the reserves of the BOE and for a country our size a lender of last resort would need c£150bn (sure I read that as a number somewhere) due to the size of our GDP. Does this mean that the BOE reserves are currently far too little going by the same criteria for the UK or are we not getting our fair share?

i hadn't seen the £150bn figure but it must be close because of the size of the Scottish banks balance sheets, generally reckoned to be 10-15x Scottish GDP

that's consistent with Carney quoting a £15bn figure for reserves pro-rata from GDP

So the BOE isn't undercapitalised, and Scotland wouldn't be short-changed, its just there is a huge mismatch between the size (liabilities) of the Scottish banks relative to their GDP

H Q the banks in England, with BOE as lender of last resort and Scotland's reserves can be lower

if Carney is saying beyond this that Scotland will need more than any post-yes deal will apportion them, then this has to come from higher taxes and/or lower spending, both of which you'd think would be anathema to a left leaning independent Scotland.

so i would expect the post yes negotiating team to push for the highest reserve figure from ther BOE they can get

[Doobs]

"The Governor noted that £15bn would be at the 'upper end of the range' that Scotland might reasonably inherit as reserves. Scotland would need a multiple of that.

Can you please explain something to me (genuine question apologies if it is a daft question):

If Scotland are to expect £15bn as their fare share of the reserves of the BOE and for a country our size a lender of last resort would need c£150bn (sure I read that as a number somewhere) due to the size of our GDP. Does this mean that the BOE reserves are currently far too little going by the same criteria for the UK or are we not getting our fair share?

i hadn't seen the £150bn figure but it must be close because of the size of the Scottish banks balance sheets, generally reckoned to be 10-15x Scottish GDP

that's consistent with Carney quoting a £15bn figure for reserves pro-rata from GDP

So the BOE isn't undercapitalised, and Scotland wouldn't be short-changed, its just there is a huge mismatch between the size (liabilities) of the Scottish banks relative to their GDP

H Q the banks in England, with BOE as lender of last resort and Scotland's reserves can be lower

if Carney is saying beyond this that Scotland will need more than any post-yes deal will apportion them, then this has to come from higher taxes and/or lower spending, both of which you'd think would be anathema to a left leaning independent Scotland. l

so i would expect the post yes negotiatiing team to push for the highest reserve figure from ther BOE they can get

I think it is separate from that, because he also says it applies to other countries that shadow a currency other than Scotland.

I assume they are expected to hold more as they have no control over the currency they are shadowing they are expected to hold more reserves by the markets.  There is a non zero additional risk with Scottish debt that Scotland will meet problems because it's economy won't behave the same as rUK that isn't there with rUK sterling issues of debt.  

If they didn't hold these then I expect the interest rate the markets charge on any debt would be correspondingly higher.  

This is all guess work and I am not party to the reasoning.

[The Wycher]

Interesting article in the Telegraph today which suggested that some people in Orkney and Shetland have asked for a separate referendum to rejoin the union if Scotland votes to leave!

Also one person who was going to vote Yes was asked what he would call himself if they left and he said he would be British!

For the record I consider myself English first and British second, but the Highlands of Scotland would probably rank as my favourite place in the world and is really the only other place I would consider living.

[celtic]

The funny thing about all this is it's dividing Scotland and causing problems amongst friends. Seems ridiculous.

yeah, I'm getting pissed you haven't organised this night out yet.

Was last Friday. You were missed.

[doubleup]

"The Governor noted that £15bn would be at the 'upper end of the range' that Scotland might reasonably inherit as reserves. Scotland would need a multiple of that.

Can you please explain something to me (genuine question apologies if it is a daft question):

If Scotland are to expect £15bn as their fare share of the reserves of the BOE and for a country our size a lender of last resort would need c£150bn (sure I read that as a number somewhere) due to the size of our GDP. Does this mean that the BOE reserves are currently far too little going by the same criteria for the UK or are we not getting our fair share?

i hadn't seen the £150bn figure but it must be close because of the size of the Scottish banks balance sheets, generally reckoned to be 10-15x Scottish GDP

that's consistent with Carney quoting a £15bn figure for reserves pro-rata from GDP

So the BOE isn't undercapitalised, and Scotland wouldn't be short-changed, its just there is a huge mismatch between the size (liabilities) of the Scottish banks relative to their GDP

H Q the banks in England, with BOE as lender of last resort and Scotland's reserves can be lower

if Carney is saying beyond this that Scotland will need more than any post-yes deal will apportion them, then this has to come from higher taxes and/or lower spending, both of which you'd think would be anathema to a left leaning independent Scotland.

so i would expect the post yes negotiating team to push for the highest reserve figure from ther BOE they can get

But the banks are all moving their regulated entities south so this reserves issue is crap, just like all the other crap that is being spouted.

[david3103]

"The Governor noted that £15bn would be at the 'upper end of the range' that Scotland might reasonably inherit as reserves. Scotland would need a multiple of that.

Can you please explain something to me (genuine question apologies if it is a daft question):

If Scotland are to expect £15bn as their fare share of the reserves of the BOE and for a country our size a lender of last resort would need c£150bn (sure I read that as a number somewhere) due to the size of our GDP. Does this mean that the BOE reserves are currently far too little going by the same criteria for the UK or are we not getting our fair share?

i hadn't seen the £150bn figure but it must be close because of the size of the Scottish banks balance sheets, generally reckoned to be 10-15x Scottish GDP

that's consistent with Carney quoting a £15bn figure for reserves pro-rata from GDP

So the BOE isn't undercapitalised, and Scotland wouldn't be short-changed, its just there is a huge mismatch between the size (liabilities) of the Scottish banks relative to their GDP

H Q the banks in England, with BOE as lender of last resort and Scotland's reserves can be lower

if Carney is saying beyond this that Scotland will need more than any post-yes deal will apportion them, then this has to come from higher taxes and/or lower spending, both of which you'd think would be anathema to a left leaning independent Scotland.

so i would expect the post yes negotiating team to push for the highest reserve figure from ther BOE they can get

But the banks are all moving their regulated entities south so this reserves issue is crap, just like all the other crap that is being spouted.

If all the banks leave the country where does that leave an Independent Scotland in terms of borrowing and indeed economic policy?

[TightEnd]

"The Governor noted that £15bn would be at the 'upper end of the range' that Scotland might reasonably inherit as reserves. Scotland would need a multiple of that.

Can you please explain something to me (genuine question apologies if it is a daft question):

If Scotland are to expect £15bn as their fare share of the reserves of the BOE and for a country our size a lender of last resort would need c£150bn (sure I read that as a number somewhere) due to the size of our GDP. Does this mean that the BOE reserves are currently far too little going by the same criteria for the UK or are we not getting our fair share?

i hadn't seen the £150bn figure but it must be close because of the size of the Scottish banks balance sheets, generally reckoned to be 10-15x Scottish GDP

that's consistent with Carney quoting a £15bn figure for reserves pro-rata from GDP

So the BOE isn't undercapitalised, and Scotland wouldn't be short-changed, its just there is a huge mismatch between the size (liabilities) of the Scottish banks relative to their GDP

H Q the banks in England, with BOE as lender of last resort and Scotland's reserves can be lower

if Carney is saying beyond this that Scotland will need more than any post-yes deal will apportion them, then this has to come from higher taxes and/or lower spending, both of which you'd think would be anathema to a left leaning independent Scotland.

so i would expect the post yes negotiating team to push for the highest reserve figure from ther BOE they can get

But the banks are all moving their regulated entities south so this reserves issue is crap, just like all the other crap that is being spouted.

there's no need to be rude. tends to indicate you think you are on the wrong side of a debate...

Scotland will need reserves anyway, right, to meet its obligations if income has a shortfall? (social security obligations go up, tax recepits fall for example...)i

so whatever the banks do the issue of what reserves might be allocated post-referendum is a valid one

[curnow]

"The Governor noted that £15bn would be at the 'upper end of the range' that Scotland might reasonably inherit as reserves. Scotland would need a multiple of that.

Can you please explain something to me (genuine question apologies if it is a daft question):

If Scotland are to expect £15bn as their fare share of the reserves of the BOE and for a country our size a lender of last resort would need c£150bn (sure I read that as a number somewhere) due to the size of our GDP. Does this mean that the BOE reserves are currently far too little going by the same criteria for the UK or are we not getting our fair share?

i hadn't seen the £150bn figure but it must be close because of the size of the Scottish banks balance sheets, generally reckoned to be 10-15x Scottish GDP

that's consistent with Carney quoting a £15bn figure for reserves pro-rata from GDP

So the BOE isn't undercapitalised, and Scotland wouldn't be short-changed, its just there is a huge mismatch between the size (liabilities) of the Scottish banks relative to their GDP

H Q the banks in England, with BOE as lender of last resort and Scotland's reserves can be lower

if Carney is saying beyond this that Scotland will need more than any post-yes deal will apportion them, then this has to come from higher taxes and/or lower spending, both of which you'd think would be anathema to a left leaning independent Scotland.

so i would expect the post yes negotiating team to push for the highest reserve figure from ther BOE they can get

But the banks are all moving their regulated entities south so this reserves issue is crap, just like all the other crap that is being spouted.

there's no need to be rude. tends to indicate you think you are on the wrong side of a debate...

Scotland will need reserves anyway, right, to meet its obligations if income has a shortfall? (social security obligations go up, tax recepits fall for example...)i

so whatever the banks do the issue of what reserves might be allocated post-referendum is a valid one

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/09/11/uk-scotland-independence-idUKKBN0H60M620140911

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has raised questions about currency arrangements in an independent Scotland, saying the country would need stockpiles of sterling if it adopted the pound without an agreement with the rest of the United Kingdom.

That could threaten the spending promises of Scottish National Party leader Alex Salmond, who wants a deal to share the pound and the BoE with the rest of the UK. Britain's main political parties have ruled that out.

and all Alex Salmond got to say is "I think the people of Scotland have moved beyond these warnings and these scaremongerings," he can never give a straight answer

[Doobs]

"The Governor noted that £15bn would be at the 'upper end of the range' that Scotland might reasonably inherit as reserves. Scotland would need a multiple of that.

Can you please explain something to me (genuine question apologies if it is a daft question):

If Scotland are to expect £15bn as their fare share of the reserves of the BOE and for a country our size a lender of last resort would need c£150bn (sure I read that as a number somewhere) due to the size of our GDP. Does this mean that the BOE reserves are currently far too little going by the same criteria for the UK or are we not getting our fair share?

i hadn't seen the £150bn figure but it must be close because of the size of the Scottish banks balance sheets, generally reckoned to be 10-15x Scottish GDP

that's consistent with Carney quoting a £15bn figure for reserves pro-rata from GDP

So the BOE isn't undercapitalised, and Scotland wouldn't be short-changed, its just there is a huge mismatch between the size (liabilities) of the Scottish banks relative to their GDP

H Q the banks in England, with BOE as lender of last resort and Scotland's reserves can be lower

if Carney is saying beyond this that Scotland will need more than any post-yes deal will apportion them, then this has to come from higher taxes and/or lower spending, both of which you'd think would be anathema to a left leaning independent Scotland.

so i would expect the post yes negotiating team to push for the highest reserve figure from ther BOE they can get

But the banks are all moving their regulated entities south so this reserves issue is crap, just like all the other crap that is being spouted.

there's no need to be rude. tends to indicate you think you are on the wrong side of a debate...

Scotland will need reserves anyway, right, to meet its obligations if income has a shortfall? (social security obligations go up, tax recepits fall for example...)i

so whatever the banks do the issue of what reserves might be allocated post-referendum is a valid one

They probably need less than they did a couple of days ago.  Presumably there is still a local bank there even if the is elsewhere.

You'd think the dark forces that are co-ordinating all this letter writing would have timed things a bit better.  Given they drafted the Governor of the Bank of England letter, you'd think they would have delayed the RBS and LBG announcements that they also wrote.  The conspirators need to be better organised with their timings next time.

[Kmac84]

Salmond slapsdown Nick Robinson of the BBC and is applauded by the gathered international media who also see through the BBC lies. 

[doubleup]

"The Governor noted that £15bn would be at the 'upper end of the range' that Scotland might reasonably inherit as reserves. Scotland would need a multiple of that.

Can you please explain something to me (genuine question apologies if it is a daft question):

If Scotland are to expect £15bn as their fare share of the reserves of the BOE and for a country our size a lender of last resort would need c£150bn (sure I read that as a number somewhere) due to the size of our GDP. Does this mean that the BOE reserves are currently far too little going by the same criteria for the UK or are we not getting our fair share?

i hadn't seen the £150bn figure but it must be close because of the size of the Scottish banks balance sheets, generally reckoned to be 10-15x Scottish GDP

that's consistent with Carney quoting a £15bn figure for reserves pro-rata from GDP

So the BOE isn't undercapitalised, and Scotland wouldn't be short-changed, its just there is a huge mismatch between the size (liabilities) of the Scottish banks relative to their GDP

H Q the banks in England, with BOE as lender of last resort and Scotland's reserves can be lower

if Carney is saying beyond this that Scotland will need more than any post-yes deal will apportion them, then this has to come from higher taxes and/or lower spending, both of which you'd think would be anathema to a left leaning independent Scotland.

so i would expect the post yes negotiating team to push for the highest reserve figure from ther BOE they can get

But the banks are all moving their regulated entities south so this reserves issue is crap, just like all the other crap that is being spouted.

there's no need to be rude. tends to indicate you think you are on the wrong side of a debate...

Scotland will need reserves anyway, right, to meet its obligations if income has a shortfall? (social security obligations go up, tax recepits fall for example...)i

so whatever the banks do the issue of what reserves might be allocated post-referendum is a valid one

Reserves fine, but vast reserves for the banking sector not necessary.  I said months ago on the subject of banking and other financial services that there would be a movement to maintain rUK supervision for business reasons, so the entire "oh what if there is another crash" argument was a red herring.  Also one of the primary reasons for refusing to entertain a currency union was the financial sector - so another red herring.

The truth is that the unionists are determined to punish the entire country if Scotland votes yes.  Instead of looking for the easiest route, they adopt the most difficult route, so they can spout doom and gloom.  The most disgraceful punch of politicians I have encountered in my life.

[OverTheBorder]

I missed this at the time, was linked to something on BBC today:

http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26818227
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/467922/Cybernats-target-travel-boss-after-he-tells-staff-independence-will-be-a-disaster

Do people understand that trying to bring down Scottish businesses that do not agree with your politics is not the wonderful social state that I am being sold? Seems to be a breeding ground for intolerance.  He is not a politician. I for one would value my employers view on such matters. Kmac will likely confirm he is an advocate for seal clubbing and hates puppies but until that is proved he seems a sensible businessman. The removal firms are going to be ringing off the hook with a Yes vote, will be Scotland's strongest industry.

[TightEnd]

Tonight there is a new YouGov IndyRef poll for his Sun & Times papers

it was 51% Yes last week, and will include some fieldwork post "devo-max"

--

ICM's upcoming poll is phone not fieldwork. It is much anticipated after they were within 0.2% of the correct AV vote in 2010 after some including YouGov were up to 10% out in their final polls