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Poll
Question: Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?
Yes - because it would be better for the Scots
Yes - because the rest of the UK would be better off without the Scots
Don't really know
Don't care
No, the Union is a good thing

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Author Topic: Independence Referendum  (Read 189898 times)
Jon MW
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« Reply #1290 on: September 16, 2014, 08:53:37 AM »

If you look at every poll (covered in the link) over the last 12 months it looks a lot like the last few polls showing it neck and neck are anomalous.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/events/scotland-decides/poll-tracker

It could reflect people definitively deciding on their stance now that it's close - but it reminds me a lot more of statistical outliers - possibly caused by added disruption of being so close to the actual vote.

I think it would be very surprising if yes were even particularly close to winning - my guess would be a no vote by close to 60%
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« Reply #1291 on: September 16, 2014, 09:05:23 AM »

If you look at every poll (covered in the link) over the last 12 months it looks a lot like the last few polls showing it neck and neck are anomalous.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/events/scotland-decides/poll-tracker

It could reflect people definitively deciding on their stance now that it's close - but it reminds me a lot more of statistical outliers - possibly caused by added disruption of being so close to the actual vote.

I think it would be very surprising if yes were even particularly close to winning - my guess would be a no vote by close to 60%

Shhhhhhh I am happy if everyone thinks it's in the bag. Save the 100% turn out.

The big unknown will be the silent majority. The hundreds of thousands who engage in demos, social media and comment are dwarfed by the millions who turn up and vote. The loudest voice is always going to be yes. What people are thinking behind closed doors nobody knows(apart from KMAC who has tapped every one).

Think it will be 53/47 either way, within that 6 point margin.
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TightEnd
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« Reply #1292 on: September 16, 2014, 09:36:27 AM »




really good link to stare at for ages http://vis.oobrien.com/indyref/
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scotty77
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« Reply #1293 on: September 16, 2014, 01:18:44 PM »

Betfair have paid out on a No.

https://betting.betfair.com/politics/scottish-independence-referendum-betting/scottish-independence-betting-betfair-sportsbook-pays-out-early-on-no-160914-51.html
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TightEnd
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« Reply #1294 on: September 16, 2014, 01:29:24 PM »

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/nick-cohen/2014/09/scottish-nationalism-turning-neighbours-into-foreigners/

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« Reply #1295 on: September 16, 2014, 01:37:38 PM »

The problem with the polls is that, right now, the outcome won't be decided by people moving from one camp to the other, or leaving the don't knows, but by what % of people who are already in each camp turn up on the day. If turnout is up at 80%, then the polling companies don't have the data to be able to accurately predict what happens in such a scenario.

It does look like decent voting weather on Thursday - which side will that help?
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« Reply #1296 on: September 16, 2014, 01:54:00 PM »



It does look like decent voting weather on Thursday - which side will that help?

It is assumed to help "no", generally older more rural voters where transport is key

whether this is the case or not, I suspect we don't know

this FT article was interesting

Why a Yes vote would confound pollsters http://on.ft.com/1qAjvyK

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TightEnd
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« Reply #1297 on: September 16, 2014, 01:56:11 PM »

If turnout is up at 80%, then the polling companies don't have the data to be able to accurately predict what happens in such a scenario.



from the above article

"On Thursday I spent the afternoon with Yes canvassers in Mossblown, an ex-mining town in South Ayrshire. All of the volunteers swore that Yes would win. Their certainty came from a belief that they were persuading Scots to vote Yes who don’t normally vote. “We figured out 18 months ago that this thing could be won on the housing estates”, one canvasser said to me. Official registration figures released this week show that 97 per cent of the Scottish electorate can vote on Thursday. (A figure more than 10 ppts higher than in elections.) Of course, the polling companies try to adjust for higher turnouts but the canvassers believe that sampling bias is at work."


i feel its much closer than 7/2 no 1/4 yes, i must say
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« Reply #1298 on: September 16, 2014, 01:59:55 PM »

The problem with the polls is that, right now, the outcome won't be decided by people moving from one camp to the other, or leaving the don't knows, but by what % of people who are already in each camp turn up on the day. If turnout is up at 80%, then the polling companies don't have the data to be able to accurately predict what happens in such a scenario.

It does look like decent voting weather on Thursday - which side will that help?

weather being good will allow the grannies to come out to play
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« Reply #1299 on: September 16, 2014, 02:04:35 PM »

If turnout is up at 80%, then the polling companies don't have the data to be able to accurately predict what happens in such a scenario.



from the above article

"On Thursday I spent the afternoon with Yes canvassers in Mossblown, an ex-mining town in South Ayrshire. All of the volunteers swore that Yes would win. Their certainty came from a belief that they were persuading Scots to vote Yes who don’t normally vote. “We figured out 18 months ago that this thing could be won on the housing estates”, one canvasser said to me. Official registration figures released this week show that 97 per cent of the Scottish electorate can vote on Thursday. (A figure more than 10 ppts higher than in elections.) Of course, the polling companies try to adjust for higher turnouts but the canvassers believe that sampling bias is at work."


i feel its much closer than 7/2 no 1/4 yes, i must say

100% that.  In areas that are traditionally Labour voters we have chapped on every door, more than once.  We have had conversation after conversation.   In the times when we have gone back the numbers for yes are increasing, we have convinced the undecideds the hardcore Labour voters and the soft no's.  

Many of those people who we spoke to time and again haven't been polled by any official pollster and our figures show a big yes lead.  

Turnout is going to be key, the higher the turnout the better it is for yes.  
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« Reply #1300 on: September 16, 2014, 02:28:10 PM »

If turnout is up at 80%, then the polling companies don't have the data to be able to accurately predict what happens in such a scenario.



from the above article

"On Thursday I spent the afternoon with Yes canvassers in Mossblown, an ex-mining town in South Ayrshire. All of the volunteers swore that Yes would win. Their certainty came from a belief that they were persuading Scots to vote Yes who don’t normally vote. “We figured out 18 months ago that this thing could be won on the housing estates”, one canvasser said to me. Official registration figures released this week show that 97 per cent of the Scottish electorate can vote on Thursday. (A figure more than 10 ppts higher than in elections.) Of course, the polling companies try to adjust for higher turnouts but the canvassers believe that sampling bias is at work."


i feel its much closer than 7/2 no 1/4 yes, i must say

100% that.  In areas that are traditionally Labour voters we have chapped on every door, more than once.  We have had conversation after conversation.   In the times when we have gone back the numbers for yes are increasing, we have convinced the undecideds the hardcore Labour voters and the soft no's.  

Many of those people who we spoke to time and again haven't been polled by any official pollster and our figures show a big yes lead.  

Turnout is going to be key, the higher the turnout the better it is for yes.  

99% of the population will not have been polled in every part of Scotland.  That's just statistical fact.
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arbboy
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« Reply #1301 on: September 16, 2014, 03:04:48 PM »

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2757621/Leading-pollster-says-referendum-biggest-embarrassment-industry-1992-general-election.html

This is interesting.
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AndrewT
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« Reply #1302 on: September 16, 2014, 03:44:17 PM »


I was thinking about this earlier. No matter which way people thought the vote would actually go, there seemed to be universal agreement it would be close and the price on the outliers in the Yes % markets drifted. If there is the possibility of a systematic error affecting the polls, then the outliers come into play and could be overpriced as the distribution of possible results might not be normal, so the usual pricing model not apply.

55-60% was 27 on Betfair earlier and I mopped up that, hoping for a polling error banzai.
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arbboy
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« Reply #1303 on: September 16, 2014, 03:46:56 PM »


I was thinking about this earlier. No matter which way people thought the vote would actually go, there seemed to be universal agreement it would be close and the price on the outliers in the Yes % markets drifted. If there is the possibility of a systematic error affecting the polls, then the outliers come into play and could be overpriced as the distribution of possible results might not be normal, so the usual pricing model not apply.

55-60% was 27 on Betfair earlier and I mopped up that, hoping for a polling error banzai.

Similar here i have just laid my 45-50% yes vote bets off at 11/8 on betfair as i see a lot of logic in this article and maybe the polls could be totally wrong either way and it's not going to be definitely as close as we necessarily think.  It's hard to see the price going much below 11/8 as Ladbrokes are so keen to hold their 45-50% price.
« Last Edit: September 16, 2014, 03:50:36 PM by arbboy » Logged
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« Reply #1304 on: September 16, 2014, 06:27:38 PM »

The Yes Voters get more confident and the confidence drains from the No Voters.

53-47 in favour of the Yes Vote.

Bring it.
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