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Author Topic: Racing Thread  (Read 1016339 times)
tikay
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« Reply #5310 on: April 17, 2018, 11:42:28 AM »


Thanks for reminding me, Tighty.

I not only laid the winner to Gill, but I backed the fast finishing 2nd at 33/1.

A National to forget, imo.

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tikay
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« Reply #5311 on: April 17, 2018, 11:47:46 AM »



Cue Card has officially been retired.

A good decision, though, with hindsight, perhaps a little late. 

Farewell old friend.


 Click to see full-size image.

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« Reply #5312 on: April 17, 2018, 12:39:43 PM »

Been a fine horse

Really looking forward to Newmarket today good card and been nice to watch on some decent ground.

Had a small bet Secret Art in the 410 each way, usual competitive hq handicap think I want to be either low or high here not much pace in the middle.

Secret Art no secrets from anyone but nice comeback at kempton last time and 16s is bigger than i expected here.

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Marky147
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« Reply #5313 on: April 17, 2018, 02:05:13 PM »

Great picture, Tighty.

One of my favourite horses, ever. Might have to take a drive down to see if I can get a selfie with him Grin

Not sure it's too late, though. Nobody has the welfare of the horse in mind, more than the connections and trainer, imo.

If the horse isn't showing enthusiasm at home, I doubt they'll race him, and he gave one of his best performances since the KG, against Waiting Patiently.

Wonder if he'll be retrained, and if so, in what field.

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Marky147
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« Reply #5314 on: April 17, 2018, 05:10:34 PM »



Nice little clip.
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« Reply #5315 on: April 17, 2018, 11:14:17 PM »



Lovely video, but think I got something stuck in my eye while I was watching it.
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« Reply #5316 on: April 18, 2018, 07:54:56 AM »

Any fancies for Cheltenham today? Cracking card for the pinstickers.

Summon the spider!
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« Reply #5317 on: April 18, 2018, 08:48:25 AM »

Great picture, Tighty.

One of my favourite horses, ever. Might have to take a drive down to see if I can get a selfie with him Grin

Not sure it's too late, though. Nobody has the welfare of the horse in mind, more than the connections and trainer, imo.

If the horse isn't showing enthusiasm at home, I doubt they'll race him, and he gave one of his best performances since the KG, against Waiting Patiently.

Wonder if he'll be retrained, and if so, in what field.



I am with Marky on this one.  He won two grade ones last season and was close in two others. 

He did run badly in the Betfair, but Outlander and Tea for Two were beaten further and carried on running in grade ones.  He was very close to the winnerin the two other grade ones.   

I think they probably picked the right time to go, I think going at the very top is just too hard to do.  If they went on the first signs of decline, he'd have gone 4 or 5 years ago when he had that relatively poor season?

Great horse, will be sadly missed.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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« Reply #5318 on: April 18, 2018, 01:46:18 PM »

I liked Mont Kira in the opener when there were 16 runners.  Less keen on it with the 15.

Question for the math guys do you prefer the 4 places 1/5 the odds or 3 places 1/4.
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« Reply #5319 on: April 18, 2018, 05:22:36 PM »

I liked Mont Kira in the opener when there were 16 runners.  Less keen on it with the 15.

Question for the math guys do you prefer the 4 places 1/5 the odds or 3 places 1/4.


Is this not a simple 4/5ths is bigger than 3/4ths answer or am I missing something?
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« Reply #5320 on: April 18, 2018, 05:25:53 PM »

I liked Mont Kira in the opener when there were 16 runners.  Less keen on it with the 15.

Question for the math guys do you prefer the 4 places 1/5 the odds or 3 places 1/4.


In a 15 runner hcap i would much prefer 1/5 1234 than 1/4 123 if the price was the same.  Wouldn't even be that close.  Very hard to have a 'value' ew bet at 1/4 123 iin a 15 runner hcap.
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« Reply #5321 on: April 18, 2018, 05:34:48 PM »

I liked Mont Kira in the opener when there were 16 runners.  Less keen on it with the 15.

Question for the math guys do you prefer the 4 places 1/5 the odds or 3 places 1/4.


If the horse was a solid place option (consistent type c + d form e.t.c) then I would take 4 places 1/5th.

If the horse was more speculative I would play win only with only 3 places, 3 places a 1/4 with 15 runners is always horrid
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« Reply #5322 on: April 18, 2018, 11:49:07 PM »

quarter first 4 is better than a fifth first 5 on most occasions though it depends on the price.  I'd take quarter first 4 on a 6/1 chance in a 16 runner handicap, but fifth first 5 on a 20/1 chance.  I'd say a good rule of thumb is that if the horse was more likely to finish fifth than first then take the extra place.  This is far more likely to be true of the 20/1 chance than the 6/1 chance.

Quarter first 3 in a 15 runner race is very significantly worse than a quarter first 4 in a 16 runner handicap.  Your place bet is roughly 75% as valuable as the 16 runner race, and it isn't that easy to even make money on the 16 runner race with many bookies pricing quite a bit below Betfair prices.  So it is easy to see quarter first 3 in a 15 runner race is usually a terrible bet.  Given there isn't much between a fifth first 4 and quarter first 3, then a fifth first 4 is likely to be a terrible bet too.  I suspect the only exceptions will be if you have a few complete no hopers in the race, eg if you have a couple of bad maidens in a Group 1. 
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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« Reply #5323 on: April 22, 2018, 01:09:04 AM »



Think Mr Kealy might be back in hospital by next weekend Cheesy
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« Reply #5324 on: April 24, 2018, 07:02:47 PM »

Paul Townend about to get filled in by Robbie Power Cheesy
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