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Author Topic: Racing Thread  (Read 1016345 times)
aaron1867
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« Reply #4620 on: February 15, 2017, 03:03:58 AM »

Something away from Cheltenham, but this picture ban at Fred, Lads & Corals is getting a little tedious now. Ladbrokes often are unable to show races that aren't affected on their app & I have no idea why. I don't really understand how it's all gone on so long & it looks as if nothing will be happening anytime soon.

Hills & Co have paid it, it surely can't be that bad. But the response I've heard is that it's turning profit into loss on racing, what a joke. Needs sorting.
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arbboy
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« Reply #4621 on: February 15, 2017, 10:02:50 AM »

Something away from Cheltenham, but this picture ban at Fred, Lads & Corals is getting a little tedious now. Ladbrokes often are unable to show races that aren't affected on their app & I have no idea why. I don't really understand how it's all gone on so long & it looks as if nothing will be happening anytime soon.

Hills & Co have paid it, it surely can't be that bad. But the response I've heard is that it's turning profit into loss on racing, what a joke. Needs sorting.

UK Racing is getting more and more expensive for BETTING SHOPS to show given how it is priced.  At the same time UK racing is becoming less and less important to a betting shops bottom line as they don't want to take bets on horse racing from the vast majority of their bigger staking customers.  These firms as businesses are, quite rightly, experimenting if it is worth paying the additional premium for these pictures by playing a game of cat and mouse and seeing if their bottom line in their shops actually falls if they don't have the pictures.  Given the majority of punters who go into a betting shop nowadays don't even bet on horses i think this could be very damaging to racing longer term valuing their product and pricing it out of the market.  UK racing just doesn't have the power it used to have 20 years ago over betting firms.  The game has changed.

What punter actually sits in a betting shop now of any size and struggles to get his bets on day after day constantly being phoned up BTL etc etc when you can sit at home watching all the racing on your TV, live stream via your laptop after placing a bet?  If you can get on for 3 figures in a betting shop you will be able to get on much easier on line long term in the comfort of the pub via your phone/laptop at home etc and get to see the pictures.  Why would you ever go into a shop as a casual decent staking punter and risk getting robbed with all the cash you are holding day in day out?  Makes no sense at all which is why horse racing in betting shops is a dying product and the firms don't want to pay a premium for a product they consider risky/loss leader to other 'risk free' products like fobt's/too much quantity not enough quality day in day out which increases corruption in the sport which, in turn, effects their bottom line.

« Last Edit: February 15, 2017, 10:09:57 AM by arbboy » Logged
nellberg
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« Reply #4622 on: February 15, 2017, 10:18:20 AM »

Something away from Cheltenham, but this picture ban at Fred, Lads & Corals is getting a little tedious now. Ladbrokes often are unable to show races that aren't affected on their app & I have no idea why. I don't really understand how it's all gone on so long & it looks as if nothing will be happening anytime soon.

Hills & Co have paid it, it surely can't be that bad. But the response I've heard is that it's turning profit into loss on racing, what a joke. Needs sorting.

As far as i'm aware, the company who have the rights to the 7 racecourses that they can't show at the minute will take over all the pictures as of next Jan 1st. Hard-ball now, get cheaper pictures then. Given the courses involved are pretty low-grade fair it could continue till the 1st decent meeting at Donny, possibly all the way through to the Leger.
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« Reply #4623 on: February 15, 2017, 11:12:10 AM »

The Grand National weights are now available to view on Racing Post racecards > http://bit.ly/2lelFqU

any early thoughts?
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« Reply #4624 on: February 15, 2017, 11:52:19 AM »

Only a reminder that now the weights are published some of these boats will show their hand in the Haydock trial on Saturday. Posssibly in the Eider on the 25th. And certainly in the Grimthorpe on the first Saturday in March (Last Samuri and Druid's Nephew one-two last year).

And the last five winners went off 25, 23, 33, 33, and 66-1. ;-)
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« Reply #4625 on: February 15, 2017, 12:42:27 PM »

 Click to see full-size image.
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« Reply #4626 on: February 15, 2017, 02:23:15 PM »

The Grand National weights are now available to view on Racing Post racecards > http://bit.ly/2lelFqU

any early thoughts?

Might have a bit on the last samurai  early when it's non runner no bet
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« Reply #4627 on: February 15, 2017, 04:42:07 PM »

3.40 Towcester.

1-10, 7-2, 8-1, 12-1, 20-1, 25-1, 25-1, 100-1.

144% for an eight-runner race. This is ok?
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« Reply #4628 on: February 15, 2017, 04:45:26 PM »

3.40 Towcester.

1-10, 7-2, 8-1, 12-1, 20-1, 25-1, 25-1, 100-1.

144% for an eight-runner race. This is ok?

bfex sp of the 2nd in!  16.0.  3rd in 43.0!  bf ex place prices 1.31 and 1.83.  Can't really blame them. 
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Marky147
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« Reply #4629 on: February 15, 2017, 04:51:40 PM »

The Grand National weights are now available to view on Racing Post racecards > http://bit.ly/2lelFqU

any early thoughts?

I backed Don Slowly, when Elliott said that he would be targeted there, and directed a freebie to old favourite Highland Lodge.
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« Reply #4630 on: February 15, 2017, 04:53:14 PM »

Pretty irrelevant, though, as you can't get EW bets on these races anywhere.

Online accounts killed if you dare try, shops tell you to gtfo. Literally. I tried it last week.

They wonder why nobody wants to bet on horses now? Perhaps when they walk in a shop and see 1-10 Fav beats 7-2 shot, 8 ran, it puts them off a bit?
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« Reply #4631 on: February 15, 2017, 04:57:44 PM »

Pretty irrelevant, though, as you can't get EW bets on these races anywhere.

Online accounts killed if you dare try, shops tell you to gtfo. Literally. I tried it last week.

They wonder why nobody wants to bet on horses now? Perhaps when they walk in a shop and see 1-10 Fav beats 7-2 shot, 8 ran, it puts them off a bit?

I'm the last person to defend bookmakers usually, but what are they supposed to do in this spot?

Separate win and place books is the only solution. Works very well in Australia.
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« Reply #4632 on: February 15, 2017, 05:15:26 PM »

The second-fav was available at 5-1+ all day.

Jebs was 20-1+ across the board.

Both were pretty close to the EW market on the machine.

Literally every horse shortened when the opening show came through and there's no way the on-course boys at Towcester would have been laying EW bets.

Obv the Fodds bridge can't give it away but they're not screwing high rollers here, just the average shop punter.

Things improved a while back after the RP did a feature on it, but they soon slipped back into their old ways.

It's unacceptable to have a 144% overround in an eight-runner race.
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arbboy
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« Reply #4633 on: February 15, 2017, 05:23:16 PM »

The second-fav was available at 5-1+ all day.

Jebs was 20-1+ across the board.

Both were pretty close to the EW market on the machine.

Literally every horse shortened when the opening show came through and there's no way the on-course boys at Towcester would have been laying EW bets.

Obv the Fodds bridge can't give it away but they're not screwing high rollers here, just the average shop punter.

Things improved a while back after the RP did a feature on it, but they soon slipped back into their old ways.

It's unacceptable to have a 144% overround in an eight-runner race.

144% win overround and  279% place book even with a 144% overround.  For the average ew punter he will do less money long term having an ew bet here over the two bets than he would in an 11 runner hcap with a win book sp of 122% (2% a runner).

It looks ugly when it actually isn't as bad as it looks as long as you are betting ew which every punter would be in this race.

Do what camel says and just win only on the race or just scrap any race like this from the schedule where the jolly is 1/10 and has a bad ew make up.  It isn't good for the punters or bookmakers and it isn't good for turnover/levy payments either for racing.  Lose lose situation PR wise.
« Last Edit: February 15, 2017, 05:42:55 PM by arbboy » Logged
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« Reply #4634 on: February 16, 2017, 12:14:48 AM »

I meant to post this the other day, but forgot.

Anyway Native's River reminded me the Timeform had dropped Thistlecrack in the wake of his defeat by Many Clouds.  It isn't really that surprising, as if you take away Cue Card, the form doesn't amount to much.  I know it was said elsewhere that he had performed brilliantly, but hard to say that on bare form.

Anyway Timefom on Thistlecrack and his drop to 175p from 180p

https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/features/ratings-update/ratings-update-clouds-bows-out-with-career-best-3012017.

They also dropped Cue Card from 179 to 173+ some time since the King George, presumably on collateral form with Thistlecrack.  Under old Tiemform rules, they would still be both around 180, as the rating used to reflect the best the horse had achieved, until they had clearly declined.  Though you could argue Thistlecrack's rating is all over the place, Cue Card has several races where they have rated him higher.

Of more interest is that Native River is still only rated 167p.

https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/features/ratings-update/ratings-update-betfair-hero-ballyandy-the-big-mover-1322017

I know he has the p, but that puts a whole load of horses higher than him and he is a stone behind the ratings they gave Cue Card after the Betfair Chase and Thistlecrack after the King George.  Not sure I'd have More of That as his equal for instance!

Blacklion 33/1 and Cause of Causes 40/1 for the National fwiw.  But early days.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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