So The win, coupled with the announcement she will not fight the next election, means she can just about soldier on for now.
But the political reality is she’s probably now got a maximum of 12 months left of her premiership.
The fundamentals are the same: parliament will have to decide between the deal, no-deal, or revoking Article 50.
In this, there is no parliamentary majority for any option.
We now know there are about 117 votes for no deal. Plus maybe another 10-20 from DUP and Labour. In theoretical terms this is not enough except the exit date of 29th March 2019 is set in stone – written into the European Union (Withdrawal) Act in black and white – and it would require new primary legislation to overturn that - and the default option if nothing is agreed is no deal. Despite the Grieve amendment Parliament cannot simply block ‘No Deal’ as it is the default option.
As both May (respect the vote) and Corbyn (a leaver) don't want a people's vote, and as the current deal doesn't look like it can be substantially altered and can't pass (her favoured option may be to take it right through to Match and hope the ERG and DUP blink, but no sign of that being successful), and as revoking is a no no we are into two options:
no deal or extension of Article 50 to avoid no deal.
However the latter option would seem to need an "event" impending election or impending referendum that might lead to material change to be granted by the EU but last night has given her immuity for a year and Corbyn won't do a no confidence vote, not so much because he thinks he cant win one but because he is in "wait it out" mode so as to have none of this on his hands come the next election
So it looks like no deal.....
except we aren't ready. We are behind EU readiness. Reports suggest that to be ready up to 15 major government IT systems need rejigging, these, it being central goverment, take years. We have til 29th March
The political & economic integration of EU member states is complex & very far reaching, touching every area of trade & governance, and we have become progressively more integrated over 40 years...
The latest myth is about a 'managed no deal', which exaggerates the extent we can mitigate the economic damage and inevitable political fallout of this unnecessary shock treatment
there is a good piece on how this is a fallcy here
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/no-such-thing-managed-no-deal-brexitAnother piece on the practical consequences of No deal
https://reaction.life/hard-brexiteers-dont-understand-consequences-wto-deal-brexit/the reality of 'no deal'. Particularly excellent on the risks to the supply chain in food.
http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/07/27/this-is-what-no-deal-brexit-actually-looks-likebut none of this might matter if the political system is in paralysis, unable to find a solution, which is the current state
This week JK Rowling (a committed remainer, of course) wrote the following
"My mentions have taught me that Brexit is like Trump’s wall. For its devoted fans it has a symbolic value totally unrelated to its workability, its true cost or the glaring self-interest of its proposers, whereas non-believers see nothing but a deranged and costly vanity project."
I think we are all going to lose over the short to medium term, whilst of course happy to leave myself open to the view that there are long term benefits to be gained.
It is time to buckle up.
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