The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[Ledders]

I *think* the noticeable things would be the fruit and veg that comes from Spain/Netherlands in vast quantities over the winter months. A shortage of Waitrose Essentials parmesan etc wouldn't be quite as important.

Britain grows most of its own wheat so we are ok for bread.

[Pokerpops]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/24/no-deal-brexit-poorer-jacob-rees-mogg-dividend

First few entries of "Rees mogg Brexiteers tax hsven" on Google

Haven't looked any further

Unfortunately this article is a one sided, prejudiced smear.

Which uses out of context and incomplete quotes. The author should be creating theatre and film posters.

[Longines]

One thing that has become clear is all the twats moaning about a 2nd ref can never claim to want democracy in the future.

Isn't denying the possibility of a 2nd referendum pretty much the definition of undemocratic?

PS I would prefer there isn't a 2nd referendum.

[Doobs]

"glaring self-interest of its proposers"

This is a quote from JK Rowling from above, what does this mean. I hear it said a fair bit but I never hear it explained. I struggle to think in terms of there being a cabal of people with a common, medium term, significant, glaring self interest in proposing exiting the EU but I'd quite like to be put right - for balance if nothing else

Banks and Leave.eu/criminal over-spend, russian influence, hedge funds, ERG millionaires personal vested interests in no deal etc etc

some of the main proponents, not the overwhelming majority of leave voters.

this is what i take her tomean

I get the accusation I guess but I don't understand the reality - for example - how exactly do ERG millionaires benefit from no-deal ? It might be unanswerable but I'd like to discover something concrete

Speak to Adz.

I'm starting to think I am actually more up to speed than most now though, as I guess several here didn't understand that May just went in asking for their best offer.

She has shown herself inept at best.

One thing that has become clear is all the twats moaning about a 2nd ref can never claim to want democracy in the future.

It isn't clear May asked for their best offer.  It looks like complete bullshit, and I'd take 1/100 on that.  

It just isn't how things work.   Both sides will have worked out what they want before meeting.  Every small part of that arrangement will have been read, reread, and argued over by people on both sides to get something both sides could agree on.  They would be advised by civil servants, consultants and lawyers on the wording. It is no surprise there is going to be no major rework on it so late in the day.

There are some very dishonest MPs about, who are prepared to mangle the truth horribly to suit there own ends.   So little of the crap they say to the cameras gets challenged.  

This is on all sides, but I do think a lot of MPs are decent, though those ones don't seem to get camera time on Brexit, so we have to listen to the shysters.

[TightEnd]

With no deal looking favourite, and increasing by the day


is anyone now moderating spending behaviour or stockpiling?

Just don't think its anywhere near favorite atm.

May/Gov doesn't want to go anywhere near it, and parliament wont allow it.

Norway or similar ....and the fun of a 2nd Ref (just the 9 versions of questions possible ) will play out, before no deal is seriously contemplated.  

It's the default option

the Grieve amendment doesn't stop it

It absolutely is the favourite

If 'no deal' actually happens are we really going to see empty supermarket shelves? What do we need to stock pile?

This is kind of a tongue in cheek question as I won't stock pile anything myself but what are people who believe the hype going to hoarding?

I heard some silly things about specific products like Marmite or whatever it was but is there anything essential that the scaremongers are claiming we may face shortages of?

Are we going to run out of bread?

Less than half of the food consumed in the UK is supplied by UK producers.

Some 51% of all of the UK’s food supplies are imported from overseas. Much of that comes from the EU, with produce totalling 4% or more also shipped in from Africa, North America, South America and Asia.

Fruit and vegetables would be at risk of price increases, given 40% of vegetables consumed in the UK come from the EU, as well as 37% of all fruit.

Animal products could also see prices rocket too, particularly pig meat. 55% of pig meat comes from the EU

there is a chance that there will be a shortage of sugar.  The UK only produces around 900,000 tonnes of refined sugar a year according to DEFRA’s Agriculture in the United Kingdom 2016 report. An additional 1m tonnes is imported to cover demand.

The UK could also lose access to more than 28% of its potato supplies

The UK’s reliance on energy imported from elsewhere has been climbing in recent years. Not since the early 2000s has the UK relied entirely on its own energy supplies to power the nation. The percentage of imported energy used climbed close to 50% in 2014. That has since fallen, but we still largely rely on imports. In the latest figures published by the government, 36% of Britain’s energy came from overseas.

Brexit will likely see Britain leave Europe’s internal energy market, which allows energy to “flow freely” across the EU. It threatens to lead to a reduction in power capacity.

A log burner and wood logs might come in handy. Tinned food is of course a good option to if you fear interruptions in power supply

There is every chance that prescription drugs will face problems getting through the ports, much like other vital supplies.

---

on the upside

Whisky, chocolate and beer are safe. The UK has ample supplies and, according to the Food and Drink Federation, exported more of those three products than anything else in 2016.

Likewise, we should be good for cereal products, as well as anything made from wheat, barley or oats.  The UK exports more of those commodities than it imports from anywhere else around the world. That means that the UK should have enough carbohydrates, including rice, bread and muesli

back to the downsides finally

the Department for Exiting the EU is reportedly planning for fuel shortages within a fortnight of Brexit occurring, so it might be worth investing in a horse as your new mode of transport.

Running shoes, rollerblades or a skateboard will serve you equally well on shorter journeys.

(insert smiley of your choice)

summary

the no deal shopping list

Pig meat (bacon, loins)
Vegetables (and seeds)
Fruit
Sugar
Potatoes (if you have the space)
A generator
Emergency fuel supply
A barbecue
An ample supply of coal
A log burner
An ample supply of wood
A horse (or another suitable form of transport)

[TightEnd]

This Ivan Rogers speech from earlier this week is the most brilliant analysis of Brexit you will see. No summary can possibly do it justice, this explains at the required length why we are in a mess.

Essential reading. https://news.liverpool.ac.uk/2018/12/13/full-speech-sir-ivan-rogers-on-brexit/

[TightEnd]

‘A second referendum is where the Remainers in the Cabinet are heading’ reports one Secretary of State

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7984996/cabinet-looks-for-plan-to-beat-brexit-logjam/

[TightEnd]

Times p1

May’s deal is dead, most cabinet members believe as they struggle to agree way forward

- 3 main camps in cabinet: referendum as last resort; a deal any deal; threaten no deal and walk out of necessary

Buckingham Palace are understood to have been preparing for possible constitutional turmoil, war-gaming scenarios involving the Fixed Term Parliament Act and checking the guidance set down by the cabinet manual.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/26780eda-fff7-11e8-92e0-7fb8092617eb

[nirvana]

The list of no deal prep sounds very similar to the walking dead..just need to get enough of the proles on Spice and could be really accurate

[MANTIS01]

How much food wastage is there in this country? Fckin loads.

How much obesity is there in this country? Fckin loads.

So the major upside which wasn’t mentioned is that our society will become more efficient, less wasteful and healthier.

As far as progress goes I venture this would represent significant advancement.

The downside is less sugar and pig meat. Shock horror. Let’s bow down to Brussels so we don’t suffer the trauma of less piggy wiggies to quaff.

With regards the total effect please deduct wastage, alternatives, additional imports from non-EU countries, growth in domestic production, increases in efficiency. Folk shouldn’t just quote total figure as it is today. That’s just lazy wasteful consumption-hungry defeatist scare-mongers trying to leverage emotions to bend you towards their own political will.

[Pokerpops]

This Ivan Rogers speech from earlier this week is the most brilliant analysis of Brexit you will see. No summary can possibly do it justice, this explains at the required length why we are in a mess.

Essential reading. https://news.liverpool.ac.uk/2018/12/13/full-speech-sir-ivan-rogers-on-brexit/

A proper read that. Some great points made and some pretty good points scored too. I wonder who he meant by the Right Honourable Membe for the 18th Century?

I found this article about his background before he got the EU gig.
https://www.politico.eu/article/camerons-sherpa/

Perhaps if he’d been more effective in role he wouldn’t have to be spelling out the truth to us now...

[EvilPie]

If 'no deal' actually happens are we really going to see empty supermarket shelves? What do we need to stock pile?

This is kind of a tongue in cheek question as I won't stock pile anything myself but what are people who believe the hype going to hoarding?

I heard some silly things about specific products like Marmite or whatever it was but is there anything essential that the scaremongers are claiming we may face shortages of?

Are we going to run out of bread?

Less than half of the food consumed in the UK is supplied by UK producers.

Some 51% of all of the UK’s food supplies are imported from overseas. Much of that comes from the EU, with produce totalling 4% or more also shipped in from Africa, North America, South America and Asia.

Fruit and vegetables would be at risk of price increases, given 40% of vegetables consumed in the UK come from the EU, as well as 37% of all fruit.

Animal products could also see prices rocket too, particularly pig meat. 55% of pig meat comes from the EU

there is a chance that there will be a shortage of sugar.  The UK only produces around 900,000 tonnes of refined sugar a year according to DEFRA’s Agriculture in the United Kingdom 2016 report. An additional 1m tonnes is imported to cover demand.

The UK could also lose access to more than 28% of its potato supplies

The UK’s reliance on energy imported from elsewhere has been climbing in recent years. Not since the early 2000s has the UK relied entirely on its own energy supplies to power the nation. The percentage of imported energy used climbed close to 50% in 2014. That has since fallen, but we still largely rely on imports. In the latest figures published by the government, 36% of Britain’s energy came from overseas.

Brexit will likely see Britain leave Europe’s internal energy market, which allows energy to “flow freely” across the EU. It threatens to lead to a reduction in power capacity.

A log burner and wood logs might come in handy. Tinned food is of course a good option to if you fear interruptions in power supply

There is every chance that prescription drugs will face problems getting through the ports, much like other vital supplies.

---

on the upside

Whisky, chocolate and beer are safe. The UK has ample supplies and, according to the Food and Drink Federation, exported more of those three products than anything else in 2016.

Likewise, we should be good for cereal products, as well as anything made from wheat, barley or oats.  The UK exports more of those commodities than it imports from anywhere else around the world. That means that the UK should have enough carbohydrates, including rice, bread and muesli

back to the downsides finally

the Department for Exiting the EU is reportedly planning for fuel shortages within a fortnight of Brexit occurring, so it might be worth investing in a horse as your new mode of transport.

Running shoes, rollerblades or a skateboard will serve you equally well on shorter journeys.

(insert smiley of your choice)

summary

the no deal shopping list

Pig meat (bacon, loins)
Vegetables (and seeds)
Fruit
Sugar
Potatoes (if you have the space)
A generator
Emergency fuel supply
A barbecue
An ample supply of coal
A log burner
An ample supply of wood
A horse (or another suitable form of transport)

Thanks for taking the time to post such a detailed and at times entertaining response

So the real issue seems to be more one of cost rather than actual availability? Short term there may be a few stumbling blocks at ports but that'll get resolved of course as long as sufficient cash is available to pay for whatever tariffs are applicable.

From a selfish perspective this isn't a particular issue but I can see it being a huge problem to millions already facing daily financial troubles.

I don't know much about food supply but I do know a little bit about the energy market. I'm no expert but I have some knowledge so I'd like to go in to a bit of detail on the energy side and maybe help settle some nerves. It's something I'm very interested in and I can see how it would worry many particularly those who were around in the 70s when the lights literally used to go out.

You mention 'interruption in power supply' but how likely is that? Do people really need to buy a generator and fuel for it or is it just more scaremongering?

I'm not convinced about energy being an issue at all, it looks pretty worrying on the surface but from what I understand it's unlikely to be a problem. Using terms like 'reliance' and 'free flowing energy' can be very worrying for some but I don't think there's any need for concern whatsoever.

Most of our imported gas comes from Norway so nothing will change there will it? 1/3 of our electricity generation is from gas powered power stations so that's a fair chunk of our electricity needs facing no change. Brexit happens in March so if there is a gas issue it'll be offset by heat demand being low and also solar generation ramping up. It would be more of a concern if it was happening in October but given the timing there will be several months to sort it before we all freeze to death.

The internal energy thing is unlikely to change as it benefits both sides equally. The links aren't exactly huge anyway and are mainly used for load balancing when either side has an excess.

'Flow freely' is a bit of a misnomer as it's actually very limited. You can only send as much energy as the cables are capable of carrying and they really aren't that big. There's a 2GW connection to France and a 1GW connection to Holland. The UKs total demand is up to about 45GW so it's not something that would bring the country to its knees even if those links were severed completely which of course they wouldn't be. Basically we'd just start shovelling a bit more coal until a more eco solution was found, coal accounts for next to nothing now but it's an easy way to increase supply quickly if really necessary.

This link shows the UKs current demand and where the electricity comes from. It also shows France if you click the little flag thing. This was my source for the figures I've stated above: https://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

Right now (Saturday at about 11.30am) the French and Dutch interconnectors are running at their max and they account for 7% of our total demand. It's not possible for that number to get higher as the cables just aren't big enough so don't rush out and buy your log burner and candles just yet. Note that the reason France are sending us so much is because it suits them right now. They rely heavily on nuclear generation and they can't turn it off at weekends when their demand is lower so they sell it to us on the cheap. They won't stop doing that, it would be moronic. Even if they did we'd just shovel some more coal..... Coal power is flexible, nuclear is not.

We have shit loads of coal and loads of power stations that can be turned up pretty much instantaneously if required. Yes it would be environmentally disastrous but the lights will not go out.

Here's an interesting one:

https://www.euronews.com/2018/01/25/eu-signs-off-on-biggest-ever-power-link

This is the "biggest ever" power link and it's only 5GW.

To think that we may be reliant on the EU for our power requirements is ridiculous. It's hugely useful to have these links as it provides both sides flexibility but neither side are reliant. Note the use of the term 'both', we all benefit so there's no reason to think they'd just switch it off. If for some bizarre reason they did cut us off what would we do? That's right, shovel more coal.

I hope that's helped to alleviate any fears about the lights going out on March 29th. It will not happen.

I might buy a horse though.

[TightEnd]

How much food wastage is there in this country? Fckin loads.

How much obesity is there in this country? Fckin loads.

So the major upside which wasn’t mentioned is that our society will become more efficient, less wasteful and healthier.

As far as progress goes I venture this would represent significant advancement.

The downside is less sugar and pig meat. Shock horror. Let’s bow down to Brussels so we don’t suffer the trauma of less piggy wiggies to quaff.

With regards the total effect please deduct wastage, alternatives, additional imports from non-EU countries, growth in domestic production, increases in efficiency. Folk shouldn’t just quote total figure as it is today. That’s just lazy wasteful consumption-hungry defeatist scare-mongers trying to leverage emotions to bend you towards their own political will.

things like efficiency, alternative sources, over time move towards more self-sufficiency all fair points

might also help me lose weight too, so not all grim

[TightEnd]

This Ivan Rogers speech from earlier this week is the most brilliant analysis of Brexit you will see. No summary can possibly do it justice, this explains at the required length why we are in a mess.

Essential reading. https://news.liverpool.ac.uk/2018/12/13/full-speech-sir-ivan-rogers-on-brexit/

A proper read that. Some great points made and some pretty good points scored too. I wonder who he meant by the Right Honourable Membe for the 18th Century?

I found this article about his background before he got the EU gig.
https://www.politico.eu/article/camerons-sherpa/

Perhaps if he’d been more effective in role he wouldn’t have to be spelling out the truth to us now...

again fair enough

i saw it written this week that the EU is, in these negotiations, influenced by the very painful Cameron opt out negotiations of 2015 where they caved on some of it, then saw Cameron still in hock to the ERG

[TightEnd]

If 'no deal' actually happens are we really going to see empty supermarket shelves? What do we need to stock pile?

This is kind of a tongue in cheek question as I won't stock pile anything myself but what are people who believe the hype going to hoarding?

I heard some silly things about specific products like Marmite or whatever it was but is there anything essential that the scaremongers are claiming we may face shortages of?

Are we going to run out of bread?

Less than half of the food consumed in the UK is supplied by UK producers.

Some 51% of all of the UK’s food supplies are imported from overseas. Much of that comes from the EU, with produce totalling 4% or more also shipped in from Africa, North America, South America and Asia.

Fruit and vegetables would be at risk of price increases, given 40% of vegetables consumed in the UK come from the EU, as well as 37% of all fruit.

Animal products could also see prices rocket too, particularly pig meat. 55% of pig meat comes from the EU

there is a chance that there will be a shortage of sugar.  The UK only produces around 900,000 tonnes of refined sugar a year according to DEFRA’s Agriculture in the United Kingdom 2016 report. An additional 1m tonnes is imported to cover demand.

The UK could also lose access to more than 28% of its potato supplies

The UK’s reliance on energy imported from elsewhere has been climbing in recent years. Not since the early 2000s has the UK relied entirely on its own energy supplies to power the nation. The percentage of imported energy used climbed close to 50% in 2014. That has since fallen, but we still largely rely on imports. In the latest figures published by the government, 36% of Britain’s energy came from overseas.

Brexit will likely see Britain leave Europe’s internal energy market, which allows energy to “flow freely” across the EU. It threatens to lead to a reduction in power capacity.

A log burner and wood logs might come in handy. Tinned food is of course a good option to if you fear interruptions in power supply

There is every chance that prescription drugs will face problems getting through the ports, much like other vital supplies.

---

on the upside

Whisky, chocolate and beer are safe. The UK has ample supplies and, according to the Food and Drink Federation, exported more of those three products than anything else in 2016.

Likewise, we should be good for cereal products, as well as anything made from wheat, barley or oats.  The UK exports more of those commodities than it imports from anywhere else around the world. That means that the UK should have enough carbohydrates, including rice, bread and muesli

back to the downsides finally

the Department for Exiting the EU is reportedly planning for fuel shortages within a fortnight of Brexit occurring, so it might be worth investing in a horse as your new mode of transport.

Running shoes, rollerblades or a skateboard will serve you equally well on shorter journeys.

(insert smiley of your choice)

summary

the no deal shopping list

Pig meat (bacon, loins)
Vegetables (and seeds)
Fruit
Sugar
Potatoes (if you have the space)
A generator
Emergency fuel supply
A barbecue
An ample supply of coal
A log burner
An ample supply of wood
A horse (or another suitable form of transport)

Thanks for taking the time to post such a detailed and at times entertaining response

So the real issue seems to be more one of cost rather than actual availability? Short term there may be a few stumbling blocks at ports but that'll get resolved of course as long as sufficient cash is available to pay for whatever tariffs are applicable.

From a selfish perspective this isn't a particular issue but I can see it being a huge problem to millions already facing daily financial troubles.

I don't know much about food supply but I do know a little bit about the energy market. I'm no expert but I have some knowledge so I'd like to go in to a bit of detail on the energy side and maybe help settle some nerves. It's something I'm very interested in and I can see how it would worry many particularly those who were around in the 70s when the lights literally used to go out.

You mention 'interruption in power supply' but how likely is that? Do people really need to buy a generator and fuel for it or is it just more scaremongering?

I'm not convinced about energy being an issue at all, it looks pretty worrying on the surface but from what I understand it's unlikely to be a problem. Using terms like 'reliance' and 'free flowing energy' can be very worrying for some but I don't think there's any need for concern whatsoever.

Most of our imported gas comes from Norway so nothing will change there will it? 1/3 of our electricity generation is from gas powered power stations so that's a fair chunk of our electricity needs facing no change. Brexit happens in March so if there is a gas issue it'll be offset by heat demand being low and also solar generation ramping up. It would be more of a concern if it was happening in October but given the timing there will be several months to sort it before we all freeze to death.

The internal energy thing is unlikely to change as it benefits both sides equally. The links aren't exactly huge anyway and are mainly used for load balancing when either side has an excess.

'Flow freely' is a bit of a misnomer as it's actually very limited. You can only send as much energy as the cables are capable of carrying and they really aren't that big. There's a 2GW connection to France and a 1GW connection to Holland. The UKs total demand is up to about 45GW so it's not something that would bring the country to its knees even if those links were severed completely which of course they wouldn't be. Basically we'd just start shovelling a bit more coal until a more eco solution was found, coal accounts for next to nothing now but it's an easy way to increase supply quickly if really necessary.

This link shows the UKs current demand and where the electricity comes from. It also shows France if you click the little flag thing. This was my source for the figures I've stated above: https://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

Right now (Saturday at about 11.30am) the French and Dutch interconnectors are running at their max and they account for 7% of our total demand. It's not possible for that number to get higher as the cables just aren't big enough so don't rush out and buy your log burner and candles just yet. Note that the reason France are sending us so much is because it suits them right now. They rely heavily on nuclear generation and they can't turn it off at weekends when their demand is lower so they sell it to us on the cheap. They won't stop doing that, it would be moronic. Even if they did we'd just shovel some more coal..... Coal power is flexible, nuclear is not.

We have shit loads of coal and loads of power stations that can be turned up pretty much instantaneously if required. Yes it would be environmentally disastrous but the lights will not go out.

Here's an interesting one:

https://www.euronews.com/2018/01/25/eu-signs-off-on-biggest-ever-power-link

This is the "biggest ever" power link and it's only 5GW.

To think that we may be reliant on the EU for our power requirements is ridiculous. It's hugely useful to have these links as it provides both sides flexibility but neither side are reliant. Note the use of the term 'both', we all benefit so there's no reason to think they'd just switch it off. If for some bizarre reason they did cut us off what would we do? That's right, shovel more coal.

I hope that's helped to alleviate any fears about the lights going out on March 29th. It will not happen.

I might buy a horse though.

thank you too

cancelling order for generator