The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[nirvana]

Why call it a peoples vote rather than 2nd referendum - should probs post in the things that piss me off thread. So ridic and on par with spouting 'will of the people' shite about the 1st referendum

[nirvana]

"glaring self-interest of its proposers"

This is a quote from JK Rowling from above, what does this mean. I hear it said a fair bit but I never hear it explained. I struggle to think in terms of there being a cabal of people with a common, medium term, significant, glaring self interest in proposing exiting the EU but I'd quite like to be put right - for balance if nothing else

[BigAdz]

I have never claimed to have understood many aspects of Brexit, but I was shocked when I heard an MP on the radio state that, TM went to the EU to state we wanted out and what terms were they prepared to offer us. She didn't tell them what we wanted, it was all a very one sided negotiation process.

Is that the case, because that sounds completely daft to me? We were never gonna get a decent deal if that was the opening stance.

[Karabiner]

Why call it a peoples vote rather than 2nd referendum - should probs post in the things that piss me off thread. So ridic and on par with spouting 'will of the people' shite about the 1st referendum

Maybe because it's a vote on what brexit is actually going be to rather than the brexit that was promised in the referendum.

[kukushkin88]

I have never claimed to have understood many aspects of Brexit, but I was shocked when I heard an MP on the radio state that, TM went to the EU to state we wanted out and what terms were they prepared to offer us. She didn't tell them what we wanted, it was all a very one sided negotiation process.

Is that the case, because that sounds completely daft to me? We were never gonna get a decent deal if that was the opening stance.

Good morning,

This is helpful:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=OTJIez1oRZ4

It’s only touched upon in the vid but........There isn’t much to negotiate on the act of leaving. Article 50 is only really a list of rules for leaving.

[kukushkin88]

I have never claimed to have understood many aspects of Brexit, but I was shocked when I heard an MP on the radio state that, TM went to the EU to state we wanted out and what terms were they prepared to offer us. She didn't tell them what we wanted, it was all a very one sided negotiation process.

Is that the case, because that sounds completely daft to me? We were never gonna get a decent deal if that was the opening stance.

Good morning,

This is helpful:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=OTJIez1oRZ4

It’s only touched upon in the vid but........There isn’t much to negotiate on the act of leaving. Article 50 is only really a list of rules for leaving.

This probably needs a warning that LBC is not a good source of information, I’d be confident this guy knows his stuff though.

[RickBFA]

So the EU won’t give May anything on the backstop.

Some on here will say “why should they, it’s our problem” or words to that effect.

I think its a mistake not to give her something.

There is a bigger picture for the EU that I honestly believe they are missing. There are probably more threats to the EU project that ever before. Once a ball starts rolling and momentum gathers it can be hard to stop.

There is the rise of far right parties.

Merkel leaving will not help them.

Macron is under pressure in France.

Immigration is becoming a much bigger issue politically.

The Euro currency is a flawed concept. Trying to align the needs of Germany and say, Greece or Spain within one currency is madness. The Euro will fail at some point.

Italy is still a problem. Some of the debt exposure to places like Turkey isn’t going to go away. They can’t/won’t modernise their working practices.

The general view that the world economy is slowing means recession is a strong possibility. As long as America and China don’t do anything really stupid on trade wars we might hold that off for a year or two - Mr Trump tax cut stimulus for the next year or so will probably keep the economic ball rolling but those tax cuts end in 2020. So world economic conditions are a big threat.

So with that background you would expect them not to fancy a no deal Brexit. It will harm us and them in the short term but they have so many other plates to keep spinning, it’s short sighted not to offer something.

[StuartHopkin]

I have never claimed to have understood many aspects of Brexit, but I was shocked when I heard an MP on the radio state that, TM went to the EU to state we wanted out and what terms were they prepared to offer us. She didn't tell them what we wanted, it was all a very one sided negotiation process.

Is that the case, because that sounds completely daft to me? We were never gonna get a decent deal if that was the opening stance.

The whole thing is incredibly daft!

I assume she didn't know how else to get started as she didn't really know what she wanted!

[StuartHopkin]

Same thing for the current backstop situation

She is asking for concessions to get a deal done but does anyone know what she is actually asking them to change it to?

[TightEnd]

"glaring self-interest of its proposers"

This is a quote from JK Rowling from above, what does this mean. I hear it said a fair bit but I never hear it explained. I struggle to think in terms of there being a cabal of people with a common, medium term, significant, glaring self interest in proposing exiting the EU but I'd quite like to be put right - for balance if nothing else

Banks and Leave.eu/criminal over-spend, russian influence, hedge funds, ERG millionaires personal vested interests in no deal etc etc

some of the main proponents, not the overwhelming majority of leave voters.

this is what i take her tomean

[TightEnd]

(with hindsight) they triggered A50 too early

she then set red lines early. EU had its red lines

EU will always protect the interests of its 27, and in this case Ireland especially but has actually compromised a lot on free movement in the WA.

Just not sure there was a good deal to be done without a lot more no deal planning before they triggered A50 (to give them the pretence that we could do it without sending the economy over a cliff)

[TightEnd]

still Marina Hyde continues on form

Takes aim, fires

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/13/erg-theresa-may-brexit

[Sheriff Fatman]

To absolutely no-one's surprise, other than Theresa May's it seems, the current EU summit is going about as well as Salzburg did for her.

Someone out there should throw in the towel to save her from further punishment.

What odds that the press statement she makes later today will include the Maybot standard quotes of "in the national interest", "delivers on the vote of the referendum" and delivers "control of our borders, our money and our laws" which have become the new "strong and stable" in terms of blindly quoted taglines which have absolutely no substantive meaning behind them.

[TightEnd]

With no deal looking favourite, and increasing by the day


is anyone now moderating spending behaviour or stockpiling?

[TightEnd]

So the EU won’t give May anything on the backstop.

Some on here will say “why should they, it’s our problem” or words to that effect.

I think its a mistake not to give her something.

There is a bigger picture for the EU that I honestly believe they are missing. There are probably more threats to the EU project that ever before. Once a ball starts rolling and momentum gathers it can be hard to stop.

There is the rise of far right parties.

Merkel leaving will not help them.

Macron is under pressure in France.

Immigration is becoming a much bigger issue politically.

The Euro currency is a flawed concept. Trying to align the needs of Germany and say, Greece or Spain within one currency is madness. The Euro will fail at some point.

Italy is still a problem. Some of the debt exposure to places like Turkey isn’t going to go away. They can’t/won’t modernise their working practices.

The general view that the world economy is slowing means recession is a strong possibility. As long as America and China don’t do anything really stupid on trade wars we might hold that off for a year or two - Mr Trump tax cut stimulus for the next year or so will probably keep the economic ball rolling but those tax cuts end in 2020. So world economic conditions are a big threat.

So with that background you would expect them not to fancy a no deal Brexit. It will harm us and them in the short term but they have so many other plates to keep spinning, it’s short sighted not to offer something.

some sympathy for where this is coming from but for over two years there have been two mantras

1 protect the single market

2 protect the good friday agreement and Ireland

even today Luxembourg Prime Minister Xavier Bettel. "Brexit is your choice, not mine".

That's it. The reality of Brexit. They're not going to blink. They're not going to back-down. They're not going to cave. We can send May. We can send Boris. The deal is the deal.

As parliament cannot find a majority for it (or anything), as there isn't going to be a change of leader, or an election or a second ref* or any change of mind by the EU thats it

No deal

* perhaps thats the only shot but it needs May to see it as the only shot