The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

grim details of yesterday's horror show

European leaders reneged on an agreement to help Theresa May sell her Brexit deal to parliament, The Times has learnt.

“To use a Christmas theme, we want all parties and factions in the British parliament to feel the bleak midwinter,” said a senior EU source.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-european-leaders-reneged-on-promise-to-help-theresa-may-kq0t5fktn

[EvilPie]

With no deal looking favourite, and increasing by the day


is anyone now moderating spending behaviour or stockpiling?

I don't believe a word of the scaremongering so I won't be changing a single thing until I see actual evidence of something happening.

I wish I could believe it but based on the actual outcome of previous economic predictions why would I?

This isn't just a troll it's a genuine question? How is it possible to believe a single word any politician/expert/journalist or whatever says?

[Mark_Porter]

Click to see full-size image.

Who are these two?!

[RED-DOG]

With no deal looking favourite, and increasing by the day


is anyone now moderating spending behaviour or stockpiling?

I have always been a moderate spender, Mrs Red is stockpiling shoes & handbags.

[TightEnd]

Click to see full-size image.

Who are these two?!

David Mellor and Michael Fabricant

do you want to know where to send the prize to?

[EvilPie]

Click to see full-size image.

Who are these two?!

Oh good Lord!! It's time to start stockpiling!!!

[Woodsey]

With no deal looking favourite, and increasing by the day


is anyone now moderating spending behaviour or stockpiling?

Au contraire...just off for a big Xmas spurge this afternoon, then off on hols for 3 weeks on Mon, have also just booked 2 holidays for next year. None of them in Europe though, they don’t deserve my money.....

[TightEnd]

With no deal looking favourite, and increasing by the day


is anyone now moderating spending behaviour or stockpiling?

I don't believe a word of the scaremongering so I won't be changing a single thing until I see actual evidence of something happening.

I wish I could believe it but based on the actual outcome of previous economic predictions why would I?

This isn't just a troll it's a genuine question? How is it possible to believe a single word any politician/expert/journalist or whatever says?

politican maybe, but experts? with years of study and training? why disbelieve those?

some very good journalists too, of course everyone comes from a standpoint of their own convictions and political views but
just read these and tell me what you disagree with?

why managed deal is fallacy https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/no-such-thing-managed-no-deal-brexit

Another piece on the practical consequences of No deal https://reaction.life/hard-brexiteers-dont-understand-consequences-wto-deal-brexit/ (thats from a leave friendly right wing site)

the reality of 'no deal'. Particularly excellent on the risks to the supply chain in food. http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/07/27/this-is-what-no-deal-brexit-actually-looks-like
(Dunt is a heavy remainer)

(by the time you see it happening (after 29th March) it will be too late to act

[RickBFA]

So the EU won’t give May anything on the backstop.

Some on here will say “why should they, it’s our problem” or words to that effect.

I think its a mistake not to give her something.

There is a bigger picture for the EU that I honestly believe they are missing. There are probably more threats to the EU project that ever before. Once a ball starts rolling and momentum gathers it can be hard to stop.

There is the rise of far right parties.

Merkel leaving will not help them.

Macron is under pressure in France.

Immigration is becoming a much bigger issue politically.

The Euro currency is a flawed concept. Trying to align the needs of Germany and say, Greece or Spain within one currency is madness. The Euro will fail at some point.

Italy is still a problem. Some of the debt exposure to places like Turkey isn’t going to go away. They can’t/won’t modernise their working practices.

The general view that the world economy is slowing means recession is a strong possibility. As long as America and China don’t do anything really stupid on trade wars we might hold that off for a year or two - Mr Trump tax cut stimulus for the next year or so will probably keep the economic ball rolling but those tax cuts end in 2020. So world economic conditions are a big threat.

So with that background you would expect them not to fancy a no deal Brexit. It will harm us and them in the short term but they have so many other plates to keep spinning, it’s short sighted not to offer something.

some sympathy for where this is coming from but for over two years there have been two mantras

1 protect the single market

2 protect the good friday agreement and Ireland

even today Luxembourg Prime Minister Xavier Bettel. "Brexit is your choice, not mine".

That's it. The reality of Brexit. They're not going to blink. They're not going to back-down. They're not going to cave. We can send May. We can send Boris. The deal is the deal.

As parliament cannot find a majority for it (or anything), as there isn't going to be a change of leader, or an election or a second ref* or any change of mind by the EU thats it

No deal

* perhaps thats the only shot but it needs May to see it as the only shot

Then May should play her last hand and take the initiative. She has fuck all to lose - personally she is gone anyway.

May should announce that unless there is movement on the back stop by XX/XX/XX it will be no deal and get ready for hard Brexit. Genuine position, no back tracking, pull the trigger.

Give Tusk, Barnier, Merkel & Co one last oppourtunity to agree a sensible way forward on the backstop.

I genuinely believe its a huge mistake from the EU not to offer anything. Playing hard ball could come back to haunt them.

I keep saying it but I believe the EU project will de-rail. The Euro will go tits up first but in 5-10-15-20 years time we may well be glad to be an independant trading nation.

[nirvana]

"glaring self-interest of its proposers"

This is a quote from JK Rowling from above, what does this mean. I hear it said a fair bit but I never hear it explained. I struggle to think in terms of there being a cabal of people with a common, medium term, significant, glaring self interest in proposing exiting the EU but I'd quite like to be put right - for balance if nothing else

Banks and Leave.eu/criminal over-spend, russian influence, hedge funds, ERG millionaires personal vested interests in no deal etc etc

some of the main proponents, not the overwhelming majority of leave voters.

this is what i take her tomean

I get the accusation I guess but I don't understand the reality - for example - how exactly do ERG millionaires benefit from no-deal ? It might be unanswerable but I'd like to discover something concrete

[Doobs]

So the EU won’t give May anything on the backstop.

Some on here will say “why should they, it’s our problem” or words to that effect.

I think its a mistake not to give her something.

There is a bigger picture for the EU that I honestly believe they are missing. There are probably more threats to the EU project that ever before. Once a ball starts rolling and momentum gathers it can be hard to stop.

There is the rise of far right parties.

Merkel leaving will not help them.

Macron is under pressure in France.

Immigration is becoming a much bigger issue politically.

The Euro currency is a flawed concept. Trying to align the needs of Germany and say, Greece or Spain within one currency is madness. The Euro will fail at some point.

Italy is still a problem. Some of the debt exposure to places like Turkey isn’t going to go away. They can’t/won’t modernise their working practices.

The general view that the world economy is slowing means recession is a strong possibility. As long as America and China don’t do anything really stupid on trade wars we might hold that off for a year or two - Mr Trump tax cut stimulus for the next year or so will probably keep the economic ball rolling but those tax cuts end in 2020. So world economic conditions are a big threat.

So with that background you would expect them not to fancy a no deal Brexit. It will harm us and them in the short term but they have so many other plates to keep spinning, it’s short sighted not to offer something.

some sympathy for where this is coming from but for over two years there have been two mantras

1 protect the single market

2 protect the good friday agreement and Ireland

even today Luxembourg Prime Minister Xavier Bettel. "Brexit is your choice, not mine".

That's it. The reality of Brexit. They're not going to blink. They're not going to back-down. They're not going to cave. We can send May. We can send Boris. The deal is the deal.

As parliament cannot find a majority for it (or anything), as there isn't going to be a change of leader, or an election or a second ref* or any change of mind by the EU thats it

No deal

* perhaps thats the only shot but it needs May to see it as the only shot

Then May should play her last hand and take the initiative. She has fuck all to lose - personally she is gone anyway.

May should announce that unless there is movement on the back stop by XX/XX/XX it will be no deal and get ready for hard Brexit. Genuine position, no back tracking, pull the trigger.

Give Tusk, Barnier, Merkel & Co one last oppourtunity to agree a sensible way forward on the backstop.

I genuinely believe its a huge mistake from the EU not to offer anything. Playing hard ball could come back to haunt them.

I keep saying it but I believe the EU project will de-rail. The Euro will go tits up first but in 5-10-15-20 years time we may well be glad to be an independant trading nation.

We'll call it a draw

[TightEnd]

"glaring self-interest of its proposers"

This is a quote from JK Rowling from above, what does this mean. I hear it said a fair bit but I never hear it explained. I struggle to think in terms of there being a cabal of people with a common, medium term, significant, glaring self interest in proposing exiting the EU but I'd quite like to be put right - for balance if nothing else

Banks and Leave.eu/criminal over-spend, russian influence, hedge funds, ERG millionaires personal vested interests in no deal etc etc

some of the main proponents, not the overwhelming majority of leave voters.

this is what i take her tomean

I get the accusation I guess but I don't understand the reality - for example - how exactly do ERG millionaires benefit from no-deal ? It might be unanswerable but I'd like to discover something concrete

Here's one,the introduction of ATAD in the EU in 2019

For Rees Mogg and Somerset Capital, for example,that has implications but not if we are not in by then

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/is-the-anti-tax-avoidance-directive-the-reason-the-rich-want-out-of-eu-1-5669763

[nirvana]

Why call it a peoples vote rather than 2nd referendum - should probs post in the things that piss me off thread. So ridic and on par with spouting 'will of the people' shite about the 1st referendum

Maybe because it's a vote on what brexit is actually going be to rather than the brexit that was promised in the referendum.

Maybe, but I don't think any Brexit was promised in the referendum - it was a campaign to win hearts and minds - which it did.

If we think the fear mongering in the first one was a bit over done and counter productive it will be as nothing to the way it will be ramped up in a second one if it takes place. So rather than anyone actually being better informed, people will be less well informed but remainers will add 'look what a shambles we've made of trying to leave' to the general level of fear mongering.

On a separate note, In a bigger context, I don't really view the process as having been a shambles. It just seems that way because it is all played out in public with the same old talking heads and egos talking smack about things they are not even involved in. It's pretty complex stuff and we wouldn't normally follow every twist and turn of a treaty negotiation. Perhaps, also, what is different about this process is that so many MPs have an interest in calling every possible version of a deal crap

[nirvana]

"glaring self-interest of its proposers"

This is a quote from JK Rowling from above, what does this mean. I hear it said a fair bit but I never hear it explained. I struggle to think in terms of there being a cabal of people with a common, medium term, significant, glaring self interest in proposing exiting the EU but I'd quite like to be put right - for balance if nothing else

Banks and Leave.eu/criminal over-spend, russian influence, hedge funds, ERG millionaires personal vested interests in no deal etc etc

some of the main proponents, not the overwhelming majority of leave voters.

this is what i take her tomean

I get the accusation I guess but I don't understand the reality - for example - how exactly do ERG millionaires benefit from no-deal ? It might be unanswerable but I'd like to discover something concrete

Here's one,the introduction of ATAD in the EU in 2019

For Rees Mogg and Somerset Capital, for example,that has implications but not if we are not in by then

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/is-the-anti-tax-avoidance-directive-the-reason-the-rich-want-out-of-eu-1-5669763

Seems like it's clutching to me, if we don't think our anti tax avoidance rules are strong enough we can vote for a party that does take it seriously and legislate ourselves

[Marky147]

"glaring self-interest of its proposers"

This is a quote from JK Rowling from above, what does this mean. I hear it said a fair bit but I never hear it explained. I struggle to think in terms of there being a cabal of people with a common, medium term, significant, glaring self interest in proposing exiting the EU but I'd quite like to be put right - for balance if nothing else

Banks and Leave.eu/criminal over-spend, russian influence, hedge funds, ERG millionaires personal vested interests in no deal etc etc

some of the main proponents, not the overwhelming majority of leave voters.

this is what i take her tomean

I get the accusation I guess but I don't understand the reality - for example - how exactly do ERG millionaires benefit from no-deal ? It might be unanswerable but I'd like to discover something concrete

Speak to Adz.