The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[RED-DOG]

If 'no deal' actually happens are we really going to see empty supermarket shelves? What do we need to stock pile?

This is kind of a tongue in cheek question as I won't stock pile anything myself but what are people who believe the hype going to hoarding?

I heard some silly things about specific products like Marmite or whatever it was but is there anything essential that the scaremongers are claiming we may face shortages of?

Are we going to run out of bread?

Less than half of the food consumed in the UK is supplied by UK producers.

Some 51% of all of the UK’s food supplies are imported from overseas. Much of that comes from the EU, with produce totalling 4% or more also shipped in from Africa, North America, South America and Asia.

Fruit and vegetables would be at risk of price increases, given 40% of vegetables consumed in the UK come from the EU, as well as 37% of all fruit.

Animal products could also see prices rocket too, particularly pig meat. 55% of pig meat comes from the EU

there is a chance that there will be a shortage of sugar.  The UK only produces around 900,000 tonnes of refined sugar a year according to DEFRA’s Agriculture in the United Kingdom 2016 report. An additional 1m tonnes is imported to cover demand.

The UK could also lose access to more than 28% of its potato supplies

The UK’s reliance on energy imported from elsewhere has been climbing in recent years. Not since the early 2000s has the UK relied entirely on its own energy supplies to power the nation. The percentage of imported energy used climbed close to 50% in 2014. That has since fallen, but we still largely rely on imports. In the latest figures published by the government, 36% of Britain’s energy came from overseas.

Brexit will likely see Britain leave Europe’s internal energy market, which allows energy to “flow freely” across the EU. It threatens to lead to a reduction in power capacity.

A log burner and wood logs might come in handy. Tinned food is of course a good option to if you fear interruptions in power supply

There is every chance that prescription drugs will face problems getting through the ports, much like other vital supplies.

---

on the upside

Whisky, chocolate and beer are safe. The UK has ample supplies and, according to the Food and Drink Federation, exported more of those three products than anything else in 2016.

Likewise, we should be good for cereal products, as well as anything made from wheat, barley or oats.  The UK exports more of those commodities than it imports from anywhere else around the world. That means that the UK should have enough carbohydrates, including rice, bread and muesli

back to the downsides finally

the Department for Exiting the EU is reportedly planning for fuel shortages within a fortnight of Brexit occurring, so it might be worth investing in a horse as your new mode of transport.

Running shoes, rollerblades or a skateboard will serve you equally well on shorter journeys.

(insert smiley of your choice)

summary

the no deal shopping list

Pig meat (bacon, loins)
Vegetables (and seeds)
Fruit
Sugar
Potatoes (if you have the space)
A generator
Emergency fuel supply
A barbecue
An ample supply of coal
A log burner
An ample supply of wood
A horse (or another suitable form of transport)

Thanks for taking the time to post such a detailed and at times entertaining response

So the real issue seems to be more one of cost rather than actual availability? Short term there may be a few stumbling blocks at ports but that'll get resolved of course as long as sufficient cash is available to pay for whatever tariffs are applicable.

From a selfish perspective this isn't a particular issue but I can see it being a huge problem to millions already facing daily financial troubles.

I don't know much about food supply but I do know a little bit about the energy market. I'm no expert but I have some knowledge so I'd like to go in to a bit of detail on the energy side and maybe help settle some nerves. It's something I'm very interested in and I can see how it would worry many particularly those who were around in the 70s when the lights literally used to go out.

You mention 'interruption in power supply' but how likely is that? Do people really need to buy a generator and fuel for it or is it just more scaremongering?

I'm not convinced about energy being an issue at all, it looks pretty worrying on the surface but from what I understand it's unlikely to be a problem. Using terms like 'reliance' and 'free flowing energy' can be very worrying for some but I don't think there's any need for concern whatsoever.

Most of our imported gas comes from Norway so nothing will change there will it? 1/3 of our electricity generation is from gas powered power stations so that's a fair chunk of our electricity needs facing no change. Brexit happens in March so if there is a gas issue it'll be offset by heat demand being low and also solar generation ramping up. It would be more of a concern if it was happening in October but given the timing there will be several months to sort it before we all freeze to death.

The internal energy thing is unlikely to change as it benefits both sides equally. The links aren't exactly huge anyway and are mainly used for load balancing when either side has an excess.

'Flow freely' is a bit of a misnomer as it's actually very limited. You can only send as much energy as the cables are capable of carrying and they really aren't that big. There's a 2GW connection to France and a 1GW connection to Holland. The UKs total demand is up to about 45GW so it's not something that would bring the country to its knees even if those links were severed completely which of course they wouldn't be. Basically we'd just start shovelling a bit more coal until a more eco solution was found, coal accounts for next to nothing now but it's an easy way to increase supply quickly if really necessary.

This link shows the UKs current demand and where the electricity comes from. It also shows France if you click the little flag thing. This was my source for the figures I've stated above: https://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

Right now (Saturday at about 11.30am) the French and Dutch interconnectors are running at their max and they account for 7% of our total demand. It's not possible for that number to get higher as the cables just aren't big enough so don't rush out and buy your log burner and candles just yet. Note that the reason France are sending us so much is because it suits them right now. They rely heavily on nuclear generation and they can't turn it off at weekends when their demand is lower so they sell it to us on the cheap. They won't stop doing that, it would be moronic. Even if they did we'd just shovel some more coal..... Coal power is flexible, nuclear is not.

We have shit loads of coal and loads of power stations that can be turned up pretty much instantaneously if required. Yes it would be environmentally disastrous but the lights will not go out.

Here's an interesting one:

https://www.euronews.com/2018/01/25/eu-signs-off-on-biggest-ever-power-link

This is the "biggest ever" power link and it's only 5GW.

To think that we may be reliant on the EU for our power requirements is ridiculous. It's hugely useful to have these links as it provides both sides flexibility but neither side are reliant. Note the use of the term 'both', we all benefit so there's no reason to think they'd just switch it off. If for some bizarre reason they did cut us off what would we do? That's right, shovel more coal.

I hope that's helped to alleviate any fears about the lights going out on March 29th. It will not happen.

I might buy a horse though.

 

[nirvana]

This Ivan Rogers speech from earlier this week is the most brilliant analysis of Brexit you will see. No summary can possibly do it justice, this explains at the required length why we are in a mess.

Essential reading. https://news.liverpool.ac.uk/2018/12/13/full-speech-sir-ivan-rogers-on-brexit/

That was a long but great read. I'd imagine most MPs wouldn't bother to read all of it and if they did, couldn't read it with an appropriate level of thought and impartiality

Learned 2 new words, which was nice.
Autarky
Simulacrum

Picked a couple of things I liked and want to quote
"What we needed to do very early on was to recognise the complexity and inevitable longevity of the exit process, work out our viable options, achieve real clarity about where we wanted to land, having worked honestly through the very tough choices we faced – and still do face – and reconcile ourselves to a serious period of transition."

"The debate of the last 30 months has suffered from opacity, delusion-mongering and mendacity on all sides."

This second point was inevitable after so many MPs immediately declared their support for enacting the result, as promised in the run up. It was then compounded by the large majority of MPs voting to invoke A50 even though they didn't (in the majority) believe in the project. Mendacity is exactly the right word to describe so many of the main faces on either side of the debate.

A few months ago I started to think a second referendum was a good idea, then out of a sense of anger with the Tory (and parliamentary) machinations that bedevil any sensible debate I changed my mind to 'don't let this bunch of cretins off the hook' . If I think about this, instinctively it doesn't have any obvious merit - ie to force the idiots who have brought us to this point to sort it out, but this is only based on the timebound nature of things.

Maybe seek to extend A50 with the EU and give parliament the time to do its job and develop options that have the support of the majority of MPs and take that into negotiations with the EU

[BigAdz]

One thing that has become clear is all the twats moaning about a 2nd ref can never claim to want democracy in the future.

Isn't denying the possibility of a 2nd referendum pretty much the definition of undemocratic?

PS I would prefer there isn't a 2nd referendum.

Oh...and then a 3rd when the losers of the 2nd aren't happy???

[BigAdz]

With no deal looking favourite, and increasing by the day


is anyone now moderating spending behaviour or stockpiling?

Just don't think its anywhere near favorite atm.

May/Gov doesn't want to go anywhere near it, and parliament wont allow it.

Norway or similar ....and the fun of a 2nd Ref (just the 9 versions of questions possible ) will play out, before no deal is seriously contemplated.  

It's the default option

the Grieve amendment doesn't stop it

It absolutely is the favourite

If 'no deal' actually happens are we really going to see empty supermarket shelves? What do we need to stock pile?

This is kind of a tongue in cheek question as I won't stock pile anything myself but what are people who believe the hype going to hoarding?

I heard some silly things about specific products like Marmite or whatever it was but is there anything essential that the scaremongers are claiming we may face shortages of?

Are we going to run out of bread?

Less than half of the food consumed in the UK is supplied by UK producers.

Some 51% of all of the UK’s food supplies are imported from overseas. Much of that comes from the EU, with produce totalling 4% or more also shipped in from Africa, North America, South America and Asia.

Fruit and vegetables would be at risk of price increases, given 40% of vegetables consumed in the UK come from the EU, as well as 37% of all fruit.

Animal products could also see prices rocket too, particularly pig meat. 55% of pig meat comes from the EU

there is a chance that there will be a shortage of sugar.  The UK only produces around 900,000 tonnes of refined sugar a year according to DEFRA’s Agriculture in the United Kingdom 2016 report. An additional 1m tonnes is imported to cover demand.

The UK could also lose access to more than 28% of its potato supplies

The UK’s reliance on energy imported from elsewhere has been climbing in recent years. Not since the early 2000s has the UK relied entirely on its own energy supplies to power the nation. The percentage of imported energy used climbed close to 50% in 2014. That has since fallen, but we still largely rely on imports. In the latest figures published by the government, 36% of Britain’s energy came from overseas.

Brexit will likely see Britain leave Europe’s internal energy market, which allows energy to “flow freely” across the EU. It threatens to lead to a reduction in power capacity.

A log burner and wood logs might come in handy. Tinned food is of course a good option to if you fear interruptions in power supply

There is every chance that prescription drugs will face problems getting through the ports, much like other vital supplies.

---

on the upside

Whisky, chocolate and beer are safe. The UK has ample supplies and, according to the Food and Drink Federation, exported more of those three products than anything else in 2016.

Likewise, we should be good for cereal products, as well as anything made from wheat, barley or oats.  The UK exports more of those commodities than it imports from anywhere else around the world. That means that the UK should have enough carbohydrates, including rice, bread and muesli

back to the downsides finally

the Department for Exiting the EU is reportedly planning for fuel shortages within a fortnight of Brexit occurring, so it might be worth investing in a horse as your new mode of transport.

Running shoes, rollerblades or a skateboard will serve you equally well on shorter journeys.

(insert smiley of your choice)

summary

the no deal shopping list

Pig meat (bacon, loins)
Vegetables (and seeds)
Fruit
Sugar
Potatoes (if you have the space)
A generator
Emergency fuel supply
A barbecue
An ample supply of coal
A log burner
An ample supply of wood
A horse (or another suitable form of transport)

We seem to assume this from one side.

What about the growers and sellers of this produce.

Just because we have left will Monsieur Farmer now say,"Non Mr Uk, I want to sell less produce now and take a big hit to my profits because Frau Merle has told me to".....not so sure myself.

Yes, we may get more tariffs on it but, I see no reason why they wont sell.

[ripple11]

With no deal looking favourite, and increasing by the day


is anyone now moderating spending behaviour or stockpiling?

Just don't think its anywhere near favorite atm.

May/Gov doesn't want to go anywhere near it, and parliament wont allow it.

Norway or similar ....and the fun of a 2nd Ref (just the 9 versions of questions possible ) will play out, before no deal is seriously contemplated.  

It's the default option

the Grieve amendment doesn't stop it

It absolutely is the favourite

If 'no deal' actually happens are we really going to see empty supermarket shelves? What do we need to stock pile?

This is kind of a tongue in cheek question as I won't stock pile anything myself but what are people who believe the hype going to hoarding?

I heard some silly things about specific products like Marmite or whatever it was but is there anything essential that the scaremongers are claiming we may face shortages of?

Are we going to run out of bread?

Whisky, chocolate and beer are safe.

I think that's all we needed to know   

[aaron1867]

One thing that has become clear is all the twats moaning about a 2nd ref can never claim to want democracy in the future.

Isn't denying the possibility of a 2nd referendum pretty much the definition of undemocratic?

PS I would prefer there isn't a 2nd referendum.

Oh...and then a 3rd when the losers of the 2nd aren't happy???

The folk that make such comments like these, or use the lines of it being undemocratic are so ignorant of what is actually going on. It's also very simplistic thing to say.

People forget that some people that voted to leave, was lied too. Do you remember the big red bus? There are people who voted leave, but didn't vote for us to leave in this chaotic manner or to leave without a deal. There are people out there who voted to leave at any cost. There are people out there who voted leave because they thought it would be easy. There are people who voted leave, who don't want us to pay £40bn to EU, but we maybe doing that.

Therefore to say it's undemocratic, to have a second vote is just laughable. I'd say there are are fair few people out there of that 17.2m who was definitely conned into voting leave.

A deal will never be voted for. A general election will never get the numbers for either party. No deal will never get the backing of parliament.

I am no political analyst, expert, journalist, or anything else, but it's completely clear that the only way to get through this, is through a second vote. That second vote should be two options of No Deal or Remain.

Just kind of get fed up with such silly phrases from people, just because they can't make a valid and intelligent response to a second vote. Response like "Brexit means brexit", "you lose, we won", "it's undemocratic", "we've already had a vote" & so on.

Let's just get this second vote out of the bloody way and we can all move on.

[BigAdz]

Aaron's back.

There are arguments for a second vote, and there are equally as many intelligent reasons that one vote was enough.

I never for one minute believed Farage when he said 300 odd mill was going to the NHS, it was obviously a Chuck away comment. Only fools latched onto that, for both sides.

We are where we are, now let's get on with that...not a second vote.

[Marky147]

Aaron's back.

There are arguments for a second vote, and there are equally as many intelligent reasons that one vote was enough.

I never for one minute believed Farage when he said 300 odd mill was going to the NHS, it was obviously a Chuck away comment. Only fools latched onto that, for both sides.

We are where we are, now let's get on with that...not a second vote.

Not like they stuck it on the side of a bus and drove around the UK

[BigAdz]

Aaron's back.

There are arguments for a second vote, and there are equally as many intelligent reasons that one vote was enough.

I never for one minute believed Farage when he said 300 odd mill was going to the NHS, it was obviously a Chuck away comment. Only fools latched onto that, for both sides.

We are where we are, now let's get on with that...not a second vote.

Not like they stuck it on the side of a bus and drove around the UK

If you ever saw the original  interview when he said it, it was clear it was a throw away line. The idiot interviewer gave it so much credence I'm not surprised that ran with it.

[aaron1867]

Aaron's back.

There are arguments for a second vote, and there are equally as many intelligent reasons that one vote was enough.

I never for one minute believed Farage when he said 300 odd mill was going to the NHS, it was obviously a Chuck away comment. Only fools latched onto that, for both sides.

We are where we are, now let's get on with that...not a second vote.

The reality of it is that we can't get on with it. It is impossible.

[kukushkin88]

Aaron's back.

There are arguments for a second vote, and there are equally as many intelligent reasons that one vote was enough.

I never for one minute believed Farage when he said 300 odd mill was going to the NHS, it was obviously a Chuck away comment. Only fools latched onto that, for both sides.

We are where we are, now let's get on with that...not a second vote.

Not like they stuck it on the side of a bus and drove around the UK

If you ever saw the original  interview when he said it, it was clear it was a throw away line. The idiot interviewer gave it so much credence I'm not surprised that ran with it.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-referendum-nigel-farage-nhs-350-million-pounds-live-health-service-u-turn-a7102831.html%3famp

[EvilPie]

I am no political analyst, expert, journalist, or anything else, but it's completely clear that the only way to get through this, is through a second vote. That second vote should be two options of No Deal or Remain.

A lot of leave voters thought that's what they were voting for.

I can't see how another vote will help anyway. It was never legally binding but the result had to be enacted for political reasons because they promised it would.

If they call another referendum they're basically telling us that they want a different result. If that's the case they might as well just call it off and accept the political backlash and riots that come with it.

[EvilPie]

People forget that some people that voted to leave, was lied too. Do you remember the big red bus? There are people who voted leave, but didn't vote for us to leave in this chaotic manner or to leave without a deal. There are people out there who voted to leave at any cost. There are people out there who voted leave because they thought it would be easy. There are people who voted leave, who don't want us to pay £40bn to EU, but we maybe doing that.

What about the people who voted to remain because if they didn't there would be a house price crash, stock market crash, mass unemployment and a huge recession immediately after the vote if they didn't?

Weren't they lied to as well?

[ripple11]

Aaron's back.

There are arguments for a second vote, and there are equally as many intelligent reasons that one vote was enough.

I never for one minute believed Farage when he said 300 odd mill was going to the NHS, it was obviously a Chuck away comment. Only fools latched onto that, for both sides.

We are where we are, now let's get on with that...not a second vote.

Not like they stuck it on the side of a bus and drove around the UK

If you ever saw the original  interview when he said it, it was clear it was a throw away line. The idiot interviewer gave it so much credence I'm not surprised that ran with it.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-referendum-nigel-farage-nhs-350-million-pounds-live-health-service-u-turn-a7102831.html%3famp

https://fullfact.org/health/nhs-england-394-million-more/

[Doobs]

People forget that some people that voted to leave, was lied too. Do you remember the big red bus? There are people who voted leave, but didn't vote for us to leave in this chaotic manner or to leave without a deal. There are people out there who voted to leave at any cost. There are people out there who voted leave because they thought it would be easy. There are people who voted leave, who don't want us to pay £40bn to EU, but we maybe doing that.

What about the people who voted to remain because if they didn't there would be a house price crash, stock market crash, mass unemployment and a huge recession immediately after the vote if they didn't?

Weren't they lied to as well?

all that immediately after the vote?  You sure? I remember Osborne saying there would be an emergency budget, but can't remember anyone claiming all those other things would happen "immediately".   There are plenty of people parliament whose ignorance of economics is pretty strong though.

I don't think it really matters now, the situation is rotten whichever way uou look at it.   It isn't absolutely impossible, but parliament has managed to make a solution way harder than it should be.