The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

Ahead of what should be an excellent Panorama later

Nick Robinson

"10 things that stopped Brexit happening".

good, succinct journalism. It explains where we are and how we got here.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49008826

[TightEnd]

It’s a shame it was hidden behind a firewall, but JRM’s piece in yesterday’s Telegraph promotes different views from those we generally see in this thread.

Today there is a cracking piece by Allister Heath on the future of the country if Boris fails.

Plus a very sensible view of HS2 from Bob Seely who points out that whilst we contemplate spending billions on a vanity project not expected to deliver anything for at least another 10 years, the rolling stock on the public railways in his constituency (Isle of Wight) is older than that on the heritage line...

link please i didn't see it

[StuartHopkin]

To answer the Melville question. The pound has seen a major fall due to uncertainty.

By comparison other currencies haven’t faced the same level of uncertainty

The reason for uncertainty is that Remain didn’t and still don’t unite behind a democratic decision. Politicians from all sides have similarly failed to unite. Thus uncertainty.

It really isn’t Brexit. Cos guess what? Brexit hasn’t happened.

On the other topic I don’t get this Boris is stupid line. If anything I figure he’s pretty smart. It does offer me a sense of fnarr, optimism, because after this ‘bumbling baboon’ has successfully engineered the top job he will readily convince the euros he’s such a loon buffoon they better offer some serious concessions.

It's madness to think try and blame the recent drop in the pound to brexit uncertainty. We have been under the uncertainty for a year now and it's never dropped to what it is now.

It has dropped because of Boris - He's the one who is most likely to try and force no deal through. That will mean the pound will be less than the euro and similar rate to the dollar. The market is clearly reacting.

The pound is dropping simply because no deal looks more and more likely. Don't try and say something else to suit your narrative.

Melville asks question about graph above

Graph is analysing drop since June 2016

Referendum was June 2016

I answer Melville question

Total madness mate

The drop before the vote is not far off to the drop e are currently seeing. It still isn't about uncertainty - we are going to be worse off after brexit, with or without a deal

Lol rather than you both being wrong, you could both be right.

It is about uncertainty as no one is certain how this is going to play out, but it is entirely driven by the Brexit outcomes.

Everyone is pretty much agreed that the main driver behind the rate is now the blend of the three out comes.

The rates are roughly;
No deal = 1.1USD to 1.0GBP
Deal = 1.4USD to 1.0 GBP
Revoke = 1.6USD to 1.0 GBP

The reason the rate is changing is the weighting of the three options.

[TightEnd]

its ok, I read it just now

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/16/philip-hammonds-negative-view-no-deal-brexit-pure-silliness/

the £80bn boost by doing future trade deals one. "“barriers to trade that the chancellor is fretting about would be against World Trade Organization rules, while he ignores the benefits of future trade deals”

Its a view.

Here's Hammond's view https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/17/philip-hammond-terrified-by-jacob-rees-mogg-claim-of-no-deal-brexit-boost

you decide etc while remembering that JRM's Dublin based hedge fund and personal finances benefit hugely from disaster capitalism, perhaps

[TightEnd]

meanwhile

and i quote

"the planes will fly, there will be clean drinking water, and there will be adequate supplies of glucose, milk solids and whey" is, fundamentally, a very weird thing for a politician to say and for a crowd to cheer?

https://twitter.com/stluedke/status/1151761180681224192

possibly designed so he can end with the "where there's a will there's a whey" gag? which would pass over most people's heads anyway

Anyway, we can all look forward to airports being open, clean drinking water and mars bars going forward. All good ;-)

[Pokerpops]

It’s a shame it was hidden behind a firewall, but JRM’s piece in yesterday’s Telegraph promotes different views from those we generally see in this thread.

Today there is a cracking piece by Allister Heath on the future of the country if Boris fails.

Plus a very sensible view of HS2 from Bob Seely who points out that whilst we contemplate spending billions on a vanity project not expected to deliver anything for at least another 10 years, the rolling stock on the public railways in his constituency (Isle of Wight) is older than that on the heritage line...

link please i didn't see it

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/16/philip-hammonds-negative-view-no-deal-brexit-pure-silliness/

[MANTIS01]

Abs comedy gold from bojo with the kippers and the gags

hardly

referencing kipper trade from the Isle of Man.

Worth noting the Isle of Man isn’t part of the EU or the UK, but remains part of the customs territory of the Union.

Lol I’m sure po-faced remoan hated it.

However the objective was to stimulate feel good and smiles to an audience weary from bad news in order to win leadership

So waving a kipper around was genius, albeit the factual details of custom territory blah are noted as an inaccuracy blah

[TightEnd]

Here's the OBR findings on no deal, out today:

* Recession in 2019-20, with £30bn hole in public finances

* Unemployment hits 5% in 2021

* Wages 2.5% lower by start of 2024

* House prices fall by 10% between 2019 and mid 2021

OBR= the first official projection from the Government’s independent Budgetary watchdog

ignore as you wish :-)

[TightEnd]

Faisal Islam analyses these

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1151773574090416133?s=20

[Sheriff Fatman]

Faisal Islam analyses these

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1151773574090416133?s=20

The replies to Faisal's thread shows just how polarised we are as a nation.

[TightEnd]

It’s selected by the Speaker. The cross-party amendment to stop Johnson suspending parliament to vote through Brexit.

Will there be minsterial resignations today, by those who cannot comply with the govt three line whip to vote against?

[TightEnd]

one of the issues here is some feel its too soon to fire both barrels, but others say they are running out of practical opportunites to stop it

lets see how it shakes out

[Pokerpops]

Faisal Islam analyses these

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1151773574090416133?s=20

The replies to Faisal's thread shows just how polarised we are as a nation.

Including this gem

“Brextremists will scream that this is Project Fear. They all deserve to lose their jobs, homes, livelihoods. #Brexit”

If only there was a way to unite us again. Maybe we should have a war?

[TightEnd]

Resolution foundation looks at the OBR forecast

https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/media/blog/another-summer-blockbuster-on-fiscal-risks-from-the-obr/

Includes this quite frankly pornographic graph looking at no deal and GDP.

[TightEnd]

This is very sad, its 13 minutes long but just breathtakingly dim

eg

James O'Brien: "What can't the UK control that most frustrates you?"
Brexit caller: "The EU won't allow us to wrap our fish and chips in newspaper any more."

refuses to accept any of the counter-points and facts put to her.

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/brexit-caller-james-obrien-fish-and-chips/