The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[nirvana]

There was a moment on 'This Week' that made me laugh. Andrew Neil, does a great dismissive eye-roll about Natalie Bennett and turns to Balls and Portillo, enjoying it like schoolboys - from about 34:40 for 20 secs. Made me laugh anyway

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b08r65yn/this-week-18052017

[DaveShoelace]

i actually think one of my theses this year is the opinion pollsters aren't catching the 18-24 year olds and previous non voters who go for Labour overwhelmingly so its closer than the polls say. could be wrong.

I think the opposite - these kids will be all over the Twitters and the Snapchats with their #grime4corbyn stuff but then won't actually go out and vote whereas Granny Bluerinse will be off out on her zimmerframe at 7am to go and vote for that nice woman with the strong stable.

Be interesting to see but I think Andrew is probably right. I don't think it's possible to overestimate the general lethargy and disinterest in politics of the British population - especially amongst the young

Yep - one of my unexpected culture-shocks when I moved here from a country where everyone discussed politics all the time was finding that very few were interested in discussing it, though that has improved to some extent in the last couple of years.

Agree. I think when you spend a lot of your time on forums like this, Twitter, Facebook etc you assume everyone is politically engaged, but its just that those who are (especially the Corbynistas) are the most vocal so it seems like that's all everyone is talking about.

[RickBFA]

Osborne goes for it again

"Here's our editorial - why can't the Government answer basic questions on the migration pledge?"

http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/evening-standard-comment-the-met-commissioner-has-made-a-good-start-a3543451.html

Click to see full-size image.

Can you imagine in the 2015 with Cameron and Osborne running the show, his reaction if a high profile former Chancellor was writing like this, three weeks before an election?

He would have been seething.

Doesn't matter whether he is right or wrong - he should show some loyalty to his party and STFU.

His stance is hypocritical given he supported a similar policy at the last election.

It's clear though that Georgy Boy is more interested in his own career and profile though.

[JohnCharver]

Osborne goes for it again

"Here's our editorial - why can't the Government answer basic questions on the migration pledge?"

http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/evening-standard-comment-the-met-commissioner-has-made-a-good-start-a3543451.html

Click to see full-size image.

Can you imagine in the 2015 with Cameron and Osborne running the show, his reaction if a high profile former Chancellor was writing like this, three weeks before an election?

He would have been seething.

Doesn't matter whether he is right or wrong - he should show some loyalty to his party and STFU.

His stance is hypocritical given he supported a similar policy at the last election.

It's clear though that Georgy Boy is more interested in his own career and profile though.

How dare a tory use the media to tell the truth!

[The Camel]

So it seems like Labour are only about 10% behind now in the polls.

How close do they have to get to force a hung parliament?

And wtf happens then?

I can't imagine the Lib Dems working with May OR Corbyn.

Minority government?

[TightEnd]

So it seems like Labour are only about 10% behind now in the polls.

How close do they have to get to force a hung parliament?

And wtf happens then?

I can't imagine the Lib Dems working with May OR Corbyn.

Minority government?

they need to win a handful of seats off the conservatives and then hope the conservatives don't win any off SNP, Lib dems etc

but, the collapse of UKIP to about 3% is buffering the poll lead and means in practice that the vote share of 35%ish now for Labour which matches the E Miliband figure won't be matched in seats as the consolidation fo the right wing vote into one party turns a number of seats blue (assuming most ukip voters turn conservative)

what a 35% vote share might do is allow Corbyn to stay on for the next parliament and be seen as given him a shot at 2022

a prospect that willno doubt be met with delight by most of the moderate labour party

[TightEnd]

this sbhows the consolidation into a two party system again since 2015

if it wasn't for the UKIP collapse, labour would have a shot

How the polls have shifted since 2015:

Note:

Con lead on 18 Apr: +16.1
Con lead on 20 May: +15.8

http://britainelects.com/polling/polling-averages/

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

some of the focus group stuff (here labour voters in northern england) is quite interesting

Lifelong Lab voters back Theresa May's plans to stop the better-off from getting free school meals, winter fuel help

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/bury-south-huffpost-uk-edelman-focus-group-labour-voters-back-may-on-means-testing-school-meals-and-winter-fuel_uk_591f4931e4b034684b0c53e1?64q

[TightEnd]

this was before the conservative manifesto

ORB/Telegraph:

CON 46 (=)
LAB 34 (+3)
UKIP 7 (+1)
LD 7 (-1)
OTH 6 (-2)

17-18th May N~1,500

Writeup http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/20/exclusive-telegraph-orb-poll-one-four-labour-voters-back-split/?WT.mc_id=tmgliveapp_iosshare_An1LftL0KVZ1

[TightEnd]

and also before the manifesto

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 46% (-1)
LAB: 33% (+1)
LDEM: 8% (-)
UKIP: 5% (-)
GRN: 2% (-)

(via @OpiniumResearch / 16 - 17 May)

[TightEnd]

Approval / Disapproval ratings of...

T. May: 48 / 31
J. Corbyn: 27 / 45
T. Farron: 16 / 37
P. Nuttall: 10 / 46

(via @OpiniumResearch)

[TightEnd]

AFTER the con manifesto

YouGov/Sunday Times Tory lead into single figures, the lowest since last year. May's lead has halved in a week

anecdotal evidence is the social care policy is unpopular

[TightEnd]

the daily mail comments

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

Electoral Calculus says Tories would have a majority of just 46 if YouGov numbers are repeated on June 8

[TightEnd]

another one

polls for the sundays being the biggest polling day of the week


Westminster voting intention:

CON: 46% (-2)
LAB: 34% (+4)
LDEM: 8% (-)
UKIP: 3% (-1)

(via @Survation / 19 - 20 May)