The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[nirvana]

I wish one of the main parties had the integrity to say clearly they have no interest in pursuing the referendum result and in the case of the Tories they could add that they are clueless how to after 2 years of vacillation. They could also add that they really really hope a different outcome is reached. Pathetic bunch.

[neeko]

Another satisfying part of this Brexit fiasco for me is how Left Remain are teaching Right Leave about economics. The socialists telling the capitalists they need to know it's all about the money the money. Oh is that right?

Thought that's why Thatcher closed the mines? Anyway wish she was around today, would've eaten Barnier on toast for breakfast.

I do disagree about the number 1 because economy runs in cycles but indeypendence is part of our DNA for thousands of years. Sure logic says it's money but we will set fire to dollar bills before we compromise who we are. It might be the number 1 for like the top 1% of thinkers but not for 99% of impoverished joe bloggs. A lot of this problem is Remain trying to teach Leave the logic they don't rightly care about. Do better to understand their emotions I think. We have seen very clearly in this process the more persistent the threats and financial gloom the more determined the Brits are. It's not all about the ch-ching ch-ching, forget about the price tag, we just wanna make the world dance.

This is rubbish, we were occupied by the Romans for centuries, invaded by the Vikings, Norman’s, Angles, etc etc in just the last 2000 years.

[kukushkin88]

Robert Harris (Blairite author)
‏
Where is the majority in parliament for *any* Brexit deal? Govt's present plan would be defeated by Lab + Tory europhobes. A hard Brexit would be defeated by Lab + Tory europhiles. A 2nd referendum (though an awful prospect) looks like the only way to resolve it

I really feel like this now.  Demonstrably, over 2 years, it's plain there is no political will to leave hard..ie enact the referendum decision. A soft brexit is surely of no benefit to and satisfies no-one

In terms of political will. I just think it’s really hard to knowingly give yourself a legacy of the worst leader the country has ever had, as measured by all the things we’ve used until now to measure success.

[StuartHopkin]

I wish one of the main parties had the integrity to say clearly they have no interest in pursuing the referendum result and in the case of the Tories they could add that they are clueless how to after 2 years of vacillation. They could also add that they really really hope a different outcome is reached. Pathetic bunch.

Yep, completely agree, I voted Leave but now I think the best thing would be Mrs May stating;

Hands up, two years in, we have no sensible options, we cant deliver this, David Cameron is a twat.

[MANTIS01]

Another satisfying part of this Brexit fiasco for me is how Left Remain are teaching Right Leave about economics. The socialists telling the capitalists they need to know it's all about the money the money. Oh is that right?

Thought that's why Thatcher closed the mines? Anyway wish she was around today, would've eaten Barnier on toast for breakfast.

I do disagree about the number 1 because economy runs in cycles but indeypendence is part of our DNA for thousands of years. Sure logic says it's money but we will set fire to dollar bills before we compromise who we are. It might be the number 1 for like the top 1% of thinkers but not for 99% of impoverished joe bloggs. A lot of this problem is Remain trying to teach Leave the logic they don't rightly care about. Do better to understand their emotions I think. We have seen very clearly in this process the more persistent the threats and financial gloom the more determined the Brits are. It's not all about the ch-ching ch-ching, forget about the price tag, we just wanna make the world dance.

This is rubbish, we were occupied by the Romans for centuries, invaded by the Vikings, Norman’s, Angles, etc etc in just the last 2000 years.

Guess my point was more geographical, being an island nation. Anyways don’t you think the fact battles were fought at every turn to resist occupation kinda proves my point.

[ripple11]

this is what i was referring to last night

Matthew Goodwin
‏
Verified account
 
@GoodwinMJ

Inside the minds of Conservative Party voters - a thread

We seem to be talking a lot about what Conservative MPs want but not a lot about what Conservative voters want

One of the reasons that many in Britain have been repeatedly shocked by political change -Ukip, Corbyn, Brexit- is because they've not been paying sufficient attention to public opinion & voters

The seeds of future revolts have already been planted

The following draws on some work out today using the British Social Attitudes survey & @whatukthinks and some bits I've been doing for @jrf_uk and others

First, Conservative voters today are far more pro-Leave than they were only 3 years ago

Large majority just want out

Second, they've become far more gloomy about how immigration is changing Britain

Fewer than 1 in 4 think it is enriching the nation's cultural life

Third, when given the option --"free movement for free trade?" -- an overwhelming majority say no

Most want free movement to stop

Might be tempting to think these views might change or that these voters could be won over by a clever campaign or policy pitch...

That's very unlikely. Because we are talking about people's values, or the elephant that is driving the rider, and those instincts don't really change.

For example...

It's become far more socially conservative or 'authoritarian'

This partly reflects the way in which, since 2016, Conservative Party has hoovered up ex-UKIP voters but also something else ...

The Conservatives under May have also attracted a lot more non-graduates who also tend to hold more socially conservative outlooks

Worth remembering too that many more of today's Conservative voters --unlike the days of Maastricht -- are open to switching their votes

Around 7 in 10 Leavers had either already abandoned the mainstream for UKIP or said they would consider doing so -- so this electorate in my view at least is a lot less 'tribal' than it once was

This outlook is why a few days ago

-only 33% of current Conservative voters told @Survation the #Chequers deal was 'faithful to the referendum'

-and only 34% think it is the 'right deal for Britain'

I hear Tories saying "well our voters don't have anywhere to go". Sounds like New Labour types in 2000s who then later realised they'd lost a big chunk of their electorate, either to UKIP or Cons or simply to apathy

We also need to remember -as @jon_mellon has shown- that overall rates of volatility in Britain today (I.e. ppl switching votes) are at some of the highest levels on record

One big risk for the Cons is a UKIP 2.0 party. But an equally big if not greater risk is simply widespread apathy -- committed Leavers just stay home after concluding that politics makes no difference

Some Cons say "oh well the fear of Corbyn" will turn them out. I'm not convinced. For these voters Brexit & immigration control are existential, value-led issues. The level of disillusionment after a "soft sell-out" deal will be profound.

The next general election also looks set to be the 4th in recent history that will be entirely fear-based (Corbyn is a threat!!) But the potency of fear has arguably worn off. Even in 2015 with "Red Ed + SNP" 4 million voters decamped to UKIP ..

So it may be that the gaping disconnect may yet deliver some profound effects. Perhaps a recast Conservative Party, fairly widespread apathy (especially among the working class) or something new altogether. But 'business as usual' for the Con Party seems very unlikely /ends

Excellent points made.

The “34% think chequers deal is the right deal” will go higher as it’s explained better/ more...especially by leavers like Gove. Of course the problem is when the EU start to try and water it down. Some how May has to stand firm, otherwise Farage/ UKIP will be reborn will her supporters.

[titaniumbean]

I wish one of the main parties had the integrity to say clearly they have no interest in pursuing the referendum result and in the case of the Tories they could add that they are clueless how to after 2 years of vacillation. They could also add that they really really hope a different outcome is reached. Pathetic bunch.

Yep, completely agree, I voted Leave but now I think the best thing would be Mrs May stating;

Hands up, two years in, we have no sensible options, we cant deliver this, David Cameron is a twat.

she should turn into Danny Dyer then you're saying?    Danny Dyer 

[StuartHopkin]

I wish one of the main parties had the integrity to say clearly they have no interest in pursuing the referendum result and in the case of the Tories they could add that they are clueless how to after 2 years of vacillation. They could also add that they really really hope a different outcome is reached. Pathetic bunch.

Yep, completely agree, I voted Leave but now I think the best thing would be Mrs May stating;

Hands up, two years in, we have no sensible options, we cant deliver this, David Cameron is a twat.

she should turn into Danny Dyer then you're saying?    Danny Dyer  

Or just quit and put Danny Dyer in charge, or even Dani Dyer.

He was my inspiration.

[titaniumbean]

it was a great tv apperance    absolutely genius comic timing 

[nirvana]

I wish one of the main parties had the integrity to say clearly they have no interest in pursuing the referendum result and in the case of the Tories they could add that they are clueless how to after 2 years of vacillation. They could also add that they really really hope a different outcome is reached. Pathetic bunch.

Yep, completely agree, I voted Leave but now I think the best thing would be Mrs May stating;

Hands up, two years in, we have no sensible options, we cant deliver this, David Cameron is a twat.

Interesting you think the same, the last 10 days or so have been so ridiculous it feels like the only sensible option. For a while I wanted to believe that Brexit meant Brexit but when it becomes apparent that Brexit means remain you gotta think again.

Now a ridiculous scenario where Labour tries to keep May trundling along towards the most meaningless exit ever, ever with no hint of a flounce or a flourish rather than blinking and stepping up themselves to say 'let's call the whole thing off'.

I'm not sure anyone can take it but think there should be EUref2, closely followed by a general election. Be interesting to see what the markets think of marginal remain followed by a reasonably strong prospect of a labour government.. give this thread some legs like.

[Karabiner]

I wish one of the main parties had the integrity to say clearly they have no interest in pursuing the referendum result and in the case of the Tories they could add that they are clueless how to after 2 years of vacillation. They could also add that they really really hope a different outcome is reached. Pathetic bunch.

Yep, completely agree, I voted Leave but now I think the best thing would be Mrs May stating;

Hands up, two years in, we have no sensible options, we cant deliver this, David Cameron is a twat.

Interesting you think the same, the last 10 days or so have been so ridiculous it feels like the only sensible option. For a while I wanted to believe that Brexit meant Brexit but when it becomes apparent that Brexit means remain you gotta think again.

Now a ridiculous scenario where Labour tries to keep May trundling along towards the most meaningless exit ever, ever with no hint of a flounce or a flourish rather than blinking and stepping up themselves to say 'let's call the whole thing off'.

I'm not sure anyone can take it but think there should be EUref2, closely followed by a general election. Be interesting to see what the markets think of marginal remain followed by a reasonably strong prospect of a labour government.. give this thread some legs like.

Do you not think it would be a landslide for Remain should there be another referendum?

[nirvana]

I wish one of the main parties had the integrity to say clearly they have no interest in pursuing the referendum result and in the case of the Tories they could add that they are clueless how to after 2 years of vacillation. They could also add that they really really hope a different outcome is reached. Pathetic bunch.

Yep, completely agree, I voted Leave but now I think the best thing would be Mrs May stating;

Hands up, two years in, we have no sensible options, we cant deliver this, David Cameron is a twat.

Interesting you think the same, the last 10 days or so have been so ridiculous it feels like the only sensible option. For a while I wanted to believe that Brexit meant Brexit but when it becomes apparent that Brexit means remain you gotta think again.

Now a ridiculous scenario where Labour tries to keep May trundling along towards the most meaningless exit ever, ever with no hint of a flounce or a flourish rather than blinking and stepping up themselves to say 'let's call the whole thing off'.

I'm not sure anyone can take it but think there should be EUref2, closely followed by a general election. Be interesting to see what the markets think of marginal remain followed by a reasonably strong prospect of a labour government.. give this thread some legs like.

Do you not think it would be a landslide for Remain should there be another referendum?

Not sure really, can think of a lot of reasons why it would be close again despite the abject, Tory led, efforts at leaving since the last ref. All a bit academic probably but some fun to speculate.

[MANTIS01]

Being patronised and threatened throughout is bound to get everybody doing an about turn, always a persuasive strategy.

[Longines]

If we are to have RefII then it should be in two+ years time after we've thrashed out the finer details of various options:


i) hard exit, border in Ireland, Troubles likely, planes/medicines/imports etc.  screwed

ii) softer exit etc. etc.

iii) EEA, freeish movement from the EU, tighten up (again) on the rest

iv) let's just say it was a bad dream....

v) A.N. Others

Suspend Art 50 in the meantime.

Otherwise we get another five years of listening to politicians saying "what the people actually meant when they voted in RefII was...."

[nirvana]

Being patronised and threatened throughout is bound to get everybody doing an about turn, always a persuasive strategy.

These are a couple of the reasons why I imagine it would be close again - smugness and sneering quotient likely to rise too and stiffen the resolve of the gfy element of leave voters.

However