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Poll
Question: How will you vote on December 12th 2019
Conservative - 19 (33.9%)
Labour - 12 (21.4%)
SNP - 2 (3.6%)
Lib Dem - 8 (14.3%)
Brexit - 1 (1.8%)
Green - 6 (10.7%)
Other - 2 (3.6%)
Spoil - 0 (0%)
Not voting - 6 (10.7%)
Total Voters: 55

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Author Topic: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged  (Read 2180566 times)
Doobs
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« Reply #22500 on: December 11, 2019, 11:38:22 AM »

some of his videos and posts have been genuinely funny/good this campaign

doesn't look like he will win but this stuff is good

https://twitter.com/DavidGauke/status/1203724772632408074?s=20



That is the best so far.  So many politics bores about at the minute
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StuartHopkin
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« Reply #22501 on: December 11, 2019, 11:43:31 AM »

Majority of 32

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ripple11
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« Reply #22502 on: December 11, 2019, 11:47:20 AM »

I want to run a small competition

Please post before polls close on Thursday to be eligible

Answer with one number, either

a) size of conservative majority or b) number of seats short of majority (and state which your answer is)

Nearest wins a £25 donation to a charity of their choice (will post screenshot)

In the event of a tie earliest guess wins



Anyway those that haven't can still have a crack at this

Put my money where your mouth is, or something like that.....

I said at start of campaign 25-35 majority.

I'll go for 26 majority.


Have you been offered a decent cash out on your 7/4 bet?   Smiley
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arbboy
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« Reply #22503 on: December 11, 2019, 11:50:02 AM »

55 majority for me if it hasn't been taken.   Fancy a demolition job of JC.   Looking forward to seeing how much lolrron has had on laboour at 25/1 most seats and 40/1 majority given his recent lol posts.   Can you copy and paste your betting slips.   Must be close to the biggest bet you ever had at the relative prices.   You talk like its close to a coin flip.
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ripple11
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« Reply #22504 on: December 11, 2019, 11:50:41 AM »

I don't think its a game changer

lots of tactical voting in the south (possibly, though probably overstated on social where people are switched on to it) could get wiped out by losses in current Labour leave-voting heartland seats

Anything from Tory landslide to hung parliament is in the realm of possibility

Getting out the vote key, weather tomorrow could be a swing factor etc etc

Fair bit of rain/bad weather around.........who's that good for?  Students not leaving the pub?....older voters not going out?
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ripple11
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« Reply #22505 on: December 11, 2019, 12:04:45 PM »

What do we think of the WASPI women vote?

An estimated 3.8million women born in the 1950s will get an ave of 15K from labour (in theory).

Surely a huge % of them will now vote labour?

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DaveShoelace
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« Reply #22506 on: December 11, 2019, 12:49:53 PM »

I don't think its a game changer

lots of tactical voting in the south (possibly, though probably overstated on social where people are switched on to it) could get wiped out by losses in current Labour leave-voting heartland seats

Anything from Tory landslide to hung parliament is in the realm of possibility

Getting out the vote key, weather tomorrow could be a swing factor etc etc

Fair bit of rain/bad weather around.........who's that good for?  Students not leaving the pub?....older voters not going out?

I pondered this and went the other weather, I think young people more likely to say fuck it and stay home
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Pokerpops
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« Reply #22507 on: December 11, 2019, 12:55:40 PM »

What do we think of the WASPI women vote?

An estimated 3.8million women born in the 1950s will get an ave of 15K from labour (in theory).

Surely a huge % of them will now vote labour?



I very much doubt that.

Women born in the 50’s are much less susceptible to fantasy offers than the students who think their student loans will be written off.
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Jon MW
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« Reply #22508 on: December 11, 2019, 01:17:01 PM »

What do we think of the WASPI women vote?

An estimated 3.8million women born in the 1950s will get an ave of 15K from labour (in theory).

Surely a huge % of them will now vote labour?



I very much doubt that.

Women born in the 50’s are much less susceptible to fantasy offers than the students who think their student loans will be written off.

I can't find a poll which shows a breakdown by both age and gender - but by gender about 30% are already voting for Labour anyway; and about 40% are voting for small parties (so maybe won't be swayed because they're already voting for a party that definitely won't be in power?)

So even if some can be bribed into the Labour vote it could be a significant number, but maybe not too significant.
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« Reply #22509 on: December 11, 2019, 01:54:16 PM »

Laura K saying she's heard the postal votes aren't looking good for Labour.....expected I suppose given the demographic that use it.
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Doobs
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« Reply #22510 on: December 11, 2019, 01:58:29 PM »

Laura K saying she's heard the postal votes aren't looking good for Labour.....expected I suppose given the demographic that use it.

from Conservative sources?
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« Reply #22511 on: December 11, 2019, 03:07:18 PM »


It’s vital that you don’t vote without consulting this website:

https://votesmart2019.com/?fbclid=IwAR3TWgQi9RMLLlzpOx9pHQ8pHc46G1_RpX2sq-Y5MtMd2QpGC2GLHct1FgU
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StuartHopkin
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« Reply #22512 on: December 11, 2019, 03:32:59 PM »


It’s vital that you don’t vote without consulting this website:

https://votesmart2019.com/?fbclid=IwAR3TWgQi9RMLLlzpOx9pHQ8pHc46G1_RpX2sq-Y5MtMd2QpGC2GLHct1FgU

Well I took your advice on board, but the website didn't even ask my opinion on anything.

I entered my postcode and it just told me to vote Labour, which is strange as the Conservatives only won by 5k votes in my constituency in 2017, I know its only 1 vote but seems a risky strategy if I want the Conservatives to win?

So possibly checking this website isn't vital for everyone?

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« Reply #22513 on: December 11, 2019, 03:35:51 PM »


It’s vital that you don’t vote without consulting this website:

https://votesmart2019.com/?fbclid=IwAR3TWgQi9RMLLlzpOx9pHQ8pHc46G1_RpX2sq-Y5MtMd2QpGC2GLHct1FgU

Well I took your advice on board, but the website didn't even ask my opinion on anything.

I entered my postcode and it just told me to vote Labour, which is strange as the Conservatives only won by 5k votes in my constituency in 2017, I know its only 1 vote but seems a risky strategy if I want the Conservatives to win?

So possibly checking this website isn't vital for everyone?



My mistake, the website name misled me.
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DungBeetle
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« Reply #22514 on: December 11, 2019, 03:36:08 PM »


It’s vital that you don’t vote without consulting this website:

https://votesmart2019.com/?fbclid=IwAR3TWgQi9RMLLlzpOx9pHQ8pHc46G1_RpX2sq-Y5MtMd2QpGC2GLHct1FgU

Well I took your advice on board, but the website didn't even ask my opinion on anything.

I entered my postcode and it just told me to vote Labour, which is strange as the Conservatives only won by 5k votes in my constituency in 2017, I know its only 1 vote but seems a risky strategy if I want the Conservatives to win?

So possibly checking this website isn't vital for everyone?



I chuckled Smiley
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