COVID19

[Marky147]

I suppose when so many want to believe you're right, it's easy to just laud the plaudits and keep bowling along.

Some stay on their path, and some veer wildly into Ickeology, like Ivor.

I have been missing Ivor since hiils videos started disappearing.  Luckily his old record label seens to be releasing a greatest hits combo.

https://mobile.twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1373045522026659845

I saw that earlier

Back to grifting idiots on diets soon, once nobody is interested in what he's got to say about this.

[booder]

A priest, a pastor & a rabbit walked into a vaccination clinic.
“What blood type are you” ? Asked the nurse.
“I am probably a type O” said the rabbit.....

[RED-DOG]

A priest, a pastor & a rabbit walked into a vaccination clinic.
“What blood type are you” ? Asked the nurse.
“I am probably a type O” said the rabbit.....

Took me a while.

[Marky147]

The Dynamic Duo

[Doobs]

The Dynamic Duo

Will have to watch that tomorrow, as I was up late on Sunday and that is just too long. 

I was surprisingly grumpy when I realised Julia HB got the vaccine at the weekend.  I was fairly surprised she was younger than me; I should never have checked; there was no upside.

Moving on, death figures are very good today even allowing for weekend lag.  Cases are still a bit stubborn.   

[Marky147]

Haha, I'm going to start it in a minute, but prob finish tomorrow.

The smileys won't like JHB doing that. She'll be disowned, like Hitchens

Cases always going to linger, when they're doing so many a day, and likely to increase again for a bit next month as things open up?

[Marky147]

Another good article from Chris Snowdon - https://capx.co/the-data-is-clear-the-government-must-move-the-lockdown-roadmap-forward/

[Doobs]

Another good article from Chris Snowdon - https://capx.co/the-data-is-clear-the-government-must-move-the-lockdown-roadmap-forward/

I am in agreement with much of what he says.  He said later on Twitter that he thinks there should be caution on foreign holidays because of new variants.  I'd agree with that too.   The other thing is that I'd want to see over 80s get their second jab before we fully open, but we are om our way with that.  I'd probably include the most vulnerable shielders too in that.

[Doobs]

I can't read the Times, as it is behind a paywall, but they have produced an article criticising Joel Smalley's contribution to the Hart group document.  The author is on Twitter, so you can get the gist of it from there.

https://mobile.twitter.com/whippletom/status/1374114974063267840

I don't know how far beyond Joel Smalley it goes, but Clare Path also contributes to part of it.  I did read/skim much of it.  Let us just say that much of the document is stretching the science/truth.   

I'd add to the reasons to reopen quicker is that we don't want the likes of the Hart Group to appear to be more in the right than those advising the Government.  There are a few of the usual suspects reappearing pretending they were right all along and rewriting history before our eyes.  People need to call them out on this.

[Doobs]

For some reason the Telegraph paywall is down today, so you can read what Chris Snowdon said last month

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/02/22/within-weeks-simply-wont-possible-justify-lockdown/

[Marky147]

I can't read the Times, as it is behind a paywall, but they have produced an article criticising Joel Smalley's contribution to the Hart group document.  The author is on Twitter, so you can get the gist of it from there.

https://mobile.twitter.com/whippletom/status/1374114974063267840

I don't know how far beyond Joel Smalley it goes, but Clare Path also contributes to part of it.  I did read/skim much of it.  Let us just say that much of the document is stretching the science/truth.   

I'd add to the reasons to reopen quicker is that we don't want the likes of the Hart Group to appear to be more in the right than those advising the Government.  There are a few of the usual suspects reappearing pretending they were right all along and rewriting history before our eyes.  People need to call them out on this.

Some have been ripping him to shreds, but he just blocks them, and his fans are just like Ivor's.

https://twitter.com/_johnbye/status/1365650853252771843

This was last month talking about his garbage, and I'd imagine the latest stuff will get the same treatment.

[Marky147]

Background on this expert - 'In 2003, you were involved in the deals of imprisoned rogue trader Andres Marinovic. In 2019, your company Supercapital was forced to stop trading by the FCA for making improper payments with client funds. It seems your history of conning people is repeating itself too?'

Think there is a thread on MoneySavingExpert forum somewhere about the con there.

[Doobs]

I can't read the Times, as it is behind a paywall, but they have produced an article criticising Joel Smalley's contribution to the Hart group document.  The author is on Twitter, so you can get the gist of it from there.

https://mobile.twitter.com/whippletom/status/1374114974063267840

I don't know how far beyond Joel Smalley it goes, but Clare Path also contributes to part of it.  I did read/skim much of it.  Let us just say that much of the document is stretching the science/truth.   

I'd add to the reasons to reopen quicker is that we don't want the likes of the Hart Group to appear to be more in the right than those advising the Government.  There are a few of the usual suspects reappearing pretending they were right all along and rewriting history before our eyes.  People need to call them out on this.

Some have been ripping him to shreds, but he just blocks them, and his fans are just like Ivor's.

https://twitter.com/_johnbye/status/1365650853252771843

This was last month talking about his garbage, and I'd imagine the latest stuff will get the same treatment.

I have seen that before, he really is terrible.

Some better analysis here; ie stuff that shows that vaccines and lockdowns work:

Cliffs: Deaths falling amongst vaccinated groups and overall deaths are now BELOW average.

https://twitter.com/john_actuary/status/1374309258150477825

deaths data shows the 65-69 group is now also starting to fall faster compared to younger ages. The additional fall in the Over 80s suggests deaths are now around half (=15/31) what they might have been without the vaccine, just slightly less in the 70-79 group.



...

Latest ONS deaths data (to week ending 12 March) has been released.

511 FEWER deaths were recorded in-week compared to the 2015-19 year average. That’s 4% lower.

Year to date there have been 154,465 deaths recorded, which is 27% higher than the 2015-19 average.

Click to see full-size image.

[Marky147]

And science goes marching on!

Someone on Betfair claiming the ONS are fiddling the numbers by using 2015-19 for comparing the excess deaths in 2021.

Surely that's the sensible thing to do, given that 2020 was what it was, and 2016-20 would skew everything?

[Doobs]

And science goes marching on!

Someone on Betfair claiming the ONS are fiddling the numbers by using 2015-19 for comparing the excess deaths in 2021.

Surely that's the sensible thing to do, given that 2020 was what it was, and 2016-20 would skew everything?

Stuart McDonald said why he was doing this in January

https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1351466738437779456

I will continue to compare against 2015-19 rather than 2016-20 to avoid 2020 distorting the five-year average from April onwards. ONS are taking the same approach in their bulletins.

Knowing that we did better than we did in the midst of a horrible pandemic isn't particularly helpful.  For example we could have 30k Covid deaths in the next couple of months and still look good compared to 2020.  It is very unlikely we will get deaths at that level, but is just an example to show why 2020 isn't a useful comparison.

Knowing that we have no excess deaths vs the previous 5 years is obvious good news.  If deaths/hospitalisations etc do start rising, we need to know early to avoid the mistakes of the recent past.

I don't know what people will do going forward as mortality comparisons with the last 5 years is fairly standard, but actuaries go way beyond that normally anyway, so there will always be a workaround.