COVID19

[Marky147]

Missed that, must have been on a TwatEmperor induced sabbatical.

[Doobs]

Missed that, must have been on a TwatEmperor induced sabbatical.

Need some photoshop skills to change "Lockdown" to "This Twat"

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1374385669368205315

[Marky147]

Not enough facepalm for him... Absolute whopper!

[Marky147]

https://twitter.com/C19Assembly/status/1374397683587149826

And there she is  

No shock that Simon Dolan's lawyer, and Toby Young are on the firm.

They've got Yeadon in on it, with Kulldorf from the Barrington Dec.

[Marky147]

It even has a donations page set up for monthly and one off donations 

[Doobs]

https://twitter.com/C19Assembly/status/1374397683587149826

And there she is  

No shock that Simon Dolan's lawyer, and Toby Young are on the firm.

They've got Yeadon in on it, with Kulldorf from the Barrington Dec.

OMFG.  Of all the people you could choose to look at data they pick #wrongagainclare.  How long before Joel Smalley rocks up?   Another day, another way to make money from the crisis.

FWIW It is pretty pure grift; 125,000 death certificates is how many a day for Clare to investigate.  It just isn't possible to do well in any reasonable timescale.  Just gathering the data will be an enormous ask.   Maybe Ivor could make a film about it?

FWIW I am sure one of the actuaries has pointed out before that something like 85% of the deaths have Covid as the primary cause.   This has nothing to do with the 28 day rule and is just normal doctors filling in death certificates.  Surely they must know this before pestering the bereaved for cash?  That is a hell of a lot of doctors in on the conspiracy.

[Marky147]

https://twitter.com/C19Assembly/status/1374397683587149826

And there she is  

No shock that Simon Dolan's lawyer, and Toby Young are on the firm.

They've got Yeadon in on it, with Kulldorf from the Barrington Dec.

OMFG.  Of all the people you could choose to look at data they pick #wrongagainclare.  How long before Joel Smalley rocks up?   Another day, another way to make money from the crisis.

FWIW It is pretty pure grift; 125,000 death certificates is how many a day for Clare to investigate.  It just isn't possible to do well in any reasonable timescale.  Just gathering the data will be an enormous ask.   Maybe Ivor could make a film about it?

FWIW I am sure one of the actuaries has pointed out before that something like 85% of the deaths have Covid as the primary cause.   This has nothing to do with the 28 day rule and is just normal doctors filling in death certificates.  Surely they must know this before pestering the bereaved for cash?  That is a hell of a lot of doctors in on the conspiracy.

Shameless, but given she is one of few doctors that were unemployed for most of last year, must need some dough.

I saw someone saying it's all because of the tests, not because of COVID. I'm sure someone compared the 28 day figures to the actual death certificates and they aren't that much different, and the ONS uses those, not the test figures, obv.

[Doobs]

https://twitter.com/C19Assembly/status/1374397683587149826

And there she is  

No shock that Simon Dolan's lawyer, and Toby Young are on the firm.

They've got Yeadon in on it, with Kulldorf from the Barrington Dec.

OMFG.  Of all the people you could choose to look at data they pick #wrongagainclare.  How long before Joel Smalley rocks up?   Another day, another way to make money from the crisis.

FWIW It is pretty pure grift; 125,000 death certificates is how many a day for Clare to investigate.  It just isn't possible to do well in any reasonable timescale.  Just gathering the data will be an enormous ask.   Maybe Ivor could make a film about it?

FWIW I am sure one of the actuaries has pointed out before that something like 85% of the deaths have Covid as the primary cause.   This has nothing to do with the 28 day rule and is just normal doctors filling in death certificates.  Surely they must know this before pestering the bereaved for cash?  That is a hell of a lot of doctors in on the conspiracy.

Oh Hi Der!

https://mobile.twitter.com/RealJoelSmalley/status/1374455718502297604

Think of the children or some other bollocks

[Marky147]

Plenty of mugs in the government, but they're at least trying, or at least you'd like to think so.

This mob absolutely have to know they're full of shit, and are simply going to ride it into the ground, while printing as much cash as they can.

[Doobs]

The Dynamic Duo

Thought I'd just watch this Marky, and it has gone.

[Marky147]

Just gone back up



Only 30 seconds removed, so rather odd.

[Doobs]

Just gone back up



Only 30 seconds removed, so rather odd.

Ha, too late now.  Better be still there in the morning

[Doobs]

More solid progress this week.

English covid deaths a week ago are currently reported as 91, so even with late reports have probably dipped below 100 a day.  Given they are still falling by 30%/40% a week, then if they weren't below 100 a week ago, they will have been the day after.

UK hospitalisations are falling by about 25% a week and were less than 600 this time last week, so probably about 400 a day now.  There are now only 7,000 Covid patients in hospital (peak was near 40,000) with less than 1,000 on a ventilator (peak was over 4.000)

Cases have remained at about 5,000 a day.  A lot of this must be down to all the testing of children with tests that aren't so accurate, so will just see how we move from here.  I read PCR testing positivity has fallen to 2.5% which is a long way from the peak, so I have no worries here.

On vaccinations, I have run good.  I read this morning that over 50s can now sign up, and I thought I'd rather just get it done, rather than waiting for my GP to get in touch.  So I signed up this morning, and this afternoon they stopped any new sign ups as there are going to be supply issues.  I am a week on Monday.  Wierd really, as they had been talking earlier this week about accelearting the number of vaccinations in the next couple of weeks, and the numbers have moved up in the past few days. 

So all good, and it can't be long before we are back to near normal.

Just a quick update which isn't all good news.

Deaths: A week ago we went down to 58 deaths a day in England.  So deaths have been falling by 30%/40% a week for a month or so now.  I mentioned yesterday that "excess" deaths were now below zero vs the previous five years.   Given Covid deaths are only about 3%/4% of all deaths now, this can be explained by random fluctuations, but is more likely to be due to a combination of deaths from other diseases falling and Covid bringing some deaths forward.  Either way, it is obvious good news.

Hospitalisations.  They are now down to about 400 a day, which is 10% of the level at the recent peak.  We are down to around 5,000 Covid patients in hospital from the 40k peak.  That is only about 4 per hospital in the UK.  There are obviously going to be some very big hosptals with far more than that, but it no longer feels like an unmanageable problem, so hopefully waiting lists will turn around.     

Cases.  Cases haven't really moved at all from last week and are still at 5,000 cases a day.  I saw Tim Spector, of the Zoe App, suggesting cases were creeping up.  This means that cases seem bound to rise if we go beyond opening up schools.     

Presumably the rising in the cases number is down to the new variant, so last year's summer experience might not be too helpful.   I think that means that the much malligned modelling has to be really good.  Given the vaccination success in most of the over 50s (bar me it seems!), I think it is safe to say that we are really unlikely to get an explosion in deaths going forward if we fully open up.  But what happens if cases rise exponentially again and we start getting a large number of people in their 40s in hospital?  I just don't think it is as clear as I thought it was.

I think we'll be fine, and they should carry on opening up, as the issue looks manageable and despite the supply controversy, some people in their 40s are already getting vaccinated.  I think it probably explains the caution over foreign holidays and the fact we haven't brought the dates forward on some things.  People should probably be able to play golf, block the paths in the park with their pram convoys and hold freedom marches.  They could probably do most of the less annoying things outside too. 

Anyway, got to go.
 .       

[Marky147]

Yeah, all looking pretty steady, even though 100% of the tests are false positives now they are doing more 

I'd be more hopeful of getting into the states, than I would most of Europe, ironically.

[Doobs]

Yeah, all looking pretty steady, even though 100% of the tests are false positives now they are doing more 

I'd be more hopeful of getting into the states, than I would most of Europe, ironically.

Yeah, I think vaccinations are the key, and they are much nearer our path than the rest of the Europeans.  Masks can't ever be as successful, and only in Ivor's head has anyone ever said they are a complete solution.  Hot weather is also going to be a help, though maybe not so much in Vegas. 

Surprised the Europeans haven't tried a death audit in the circumstances.