COVID19

[Marky147]

Yeah, all looking pretty steady, even though 100% of the tests are false positives now they are doing more 

I'd be more hopeful of getting into the states, than I would most of Europe, ironically.

Yeah, I think vaccinations are the key, and they are much nearer our path than the rest of the Europeans.  Masks can't ever be as successful, and only in Ivor's head has anyone ever said they are a complete solution.  Hot weather is also going to be a help, though maybe not so much in Vegas. 

Surprised the Europeans haven't tried a death audit in the circumstances. 

Definitely, and it's obvious they're working, unless you're Joel Smalley and his groovy gang.

Well, they might set one up out there. Simon Dolan lives in Monaco, so prob has plenty of quacky friends out there.

[Marky147]

This is an interesting read https://www.pc.agency/blog/travel-traffic-lights-for-summer-2021/

Paul Charles used to be some high level suit at Virgin and now has his own consultancy.

[Doobs]

Yeah, all looking pretty steady, even though 100% of the tests are false positives now they are doing more 

I'd be more hopeful of getting into the states, than I would most of Europe, ironically.

Yeah, I think vaccinations are the key, and they are much nearer our path than the rest of the Europeans.  Masks can't ever be as successful, and only in Ivor's head has anyone ever said they are a complete solution.  Hot weather is also going to be a help, though maybe not so much in Vegas. 

Surprised the Europeans haven't tried a death audit in the circumstances. 

Definitely, and it's obvious they're working, unless you're Joel Smalley and his groovy gang.

Well, they might set one up out there. Simon Dolan lives in Monaco, so prob has plenty of quacky friends out there.

So Joel Smalley goes full anti vax again, yet the Times piece using his own words was a hatchet job?  Righteo.

If lockdowns don't work, then it must have been the vaccine, but he says vaccines increase deaths, so how did we get here? 

[Doobs]

More data from Israel

Israel had some of the highest Covid rates in the World, then had the best vaccination rates in a large country and lockdown has ended.

https://twitter.com/segal_eran/status/1373876560030208006

Israel: Fully open economy, R still declining, now 0.62

40 days after exiting lockdown

From the peak of mid-January:
85% fewer daily deaths
72% fewer daily critically ill
86% fewer daily cases

40 days after exiting the previous October lockdown, R was already at 1.15

Click to see full-size image.

This should give us hope we'll be OK to reopen more quickly. 

Amazing that all the countries with high levels of vaccination are seeing similar "Gompertz" curves

[Marky147]

Seems he's into everything.

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6054507/supercapital-administration


From page 3 of that thread.

The main point of frustration for me is that less than 90% of the funds are coming back despite the funds supposedly being in segregated accounts. A huge amount of money was lost in incorrect payments being sent out. That points to SERIOUS mismanagement.

According to Companies House, the CEO of Supercapital Joel Smalley has moved on from Supercapital to a new venture Supermoney (!). Where is the accountability here? The early updates from Griffins suggested that there could be action to disqualify the management from holding directorships in the future, but this has not materialised.

Hundreds of people have lost huge sums of money and yet those responsible have simply jumped ship and started new ventures. That seems incredibly unjust to me.

[Marky147]

If we're anywhere near Israel we'll be ticking along nicely.

[Marky147]

Good thread here by a smarty smart chap -

I’ve spent a lot of time over the last 2 days going through the most recent paper https://thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S1473-3099%2821%2900143-2 from the Warwick modelling group that feeds into SAGE, and trying to work out why it predicts a large exit wave, when my model (mostly) doesn’t.  My conclusions are:  1/12

 https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1374809004749242370

[Doobs]

Good thread here by a smarty smart chap -

I’ve spent a lot of time over the last 2 days going through the most recent paper https://thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S1473-3099%2821%2900143-2 from the Warwick modelling group that feeds into SAGE, and trying to work out why it predicts a large exit wave, when my model (mostly) doesn’t.  My conclusions are:  1/12

 https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1374809004749242370

It was good to see he comfirmed a lot of my thinking on the recent modelling.  It was interesting that he showed that there is a lot of instability in the modelling.  ie that if you tweak the assumptions a bit, you can get very different outcomes.   Because the virus can increase exponential a small difference can make a change between the NHS becoming overwhelmed and the virus just gradually disappearing (the difference between multiplying something by 1.2 for 20 weeks is very different to multiplying it by 1).

I think that is all hard to get across to those who don't really understand the maths or just think all modelling is hocus pocus and performed by bad actors. 

I do lean towards it will all be fine, after all most assumptions were too pessimistic, just can't be certain of it.

[Doobs]

Seems he's into everything.

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6054507/supercapital-administration


From page 3 of that thread.

The main point of frustration for me is that less than 90% of the funds are coming back despite the funds supposedly being in segregated accounts. A huge amount of money was lost in incorrect payments being sent out. That points to SERIOUS mismanagement.

According to Companies House, the CEO of Supercapital Joel Smalley has moved on from Supercapital to a new venture Supermoney (!). Where is the accountability here? The early updates from Griffins suggested that there could be action to disqualify the management from holding directorships in the future, but this has not materialised.

Hundreds of people have lost huge sums of money and yet those responsible have simply jumped ship and started new ventures. That seems incredibly unjust to me.

Inspired by this, I looked up pathological Clare, and wasn't surprised she appears to be a real pathologist.  What did surprise me is that she has been to both Oxford and Cambridge.  What this crisis has taught me is that doesn't mean as much as I thought.  Toby's dad famously had a word to get him in, Carl Heneghan and Sunetra Gupta also work there.  To be fair, most of the Oxbridge graduates I have worked with are very talented at much of their work.  You can obviously be intellectually brilliant and have flaws too... 

I am not sure what use there is from collecting the beliefs of the recently deceased about hlwhat their relatives died of.  Many won't have been there or fully understood all the symptoms of coronavirus.  Plus there are a bunch of grey areas, and some causes of deaths aren't clear, hence some death certificates will not be perfect.  We also know that many Covid deaths were incorrectly attributed to something else in the early days (excess deaths were way higher than Covid deaths).  But she is only investigating the ones that were incorrectly described as Covid and not the other way round, so she is unlikely to end up with a sensible conclusion.

We know that by looking at excess deaths, counting deaths within 28 days of a positive test or by investigaing death certificates that we end up with a similar number.  We also know the flaws in each method, but recognise that they are broadly correct overall.  So what does finding tens of suspicious ones tell you above this? What use does discovering that a relative isn't happy with what was on a death certificate? 

And she should know her audience has more than its fair share of cranks, so she should realise she is even less likely to get an unbiased sample?  If I asked her audience if the moon landings were faked, I wouldn't expect to get an answer in line with the general population. If I went beyond this, and specifically asked only those who thought the moon landings were faked to respond I'd get even worse data. 

Anyway, need a walk.

[Doobs]

Seems he's into everything.

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6054507/supercapital-administration


From page 3 of that thread.

The main point of frustration for me is that less than 90% of the funds are coming back despite the funds supposedly being in segregated accounts. A huge amount of money was lost in incorrect payments being sent out. That points to SERIOUS mismanagement.

According to Companies House, the CEO of Supercapital Joel Smalley has moved on from Supercapital to a new venture Supermoney (!). Where is the accountability here? The early updates from Griffins suggested that there could be action to disqualify the management from holding directorships in the future, but this has not materialised.

Hundreds of people have lost huge sums of money and yet those responsible have simply jumped ship and started new ventures. That seems incredibly unjust to me.

Inspired by this, I looked up pathological Clare, and wasn't surprised she appears to be a real pathologist.  What did surprise me is that she has been to both Oxford and Cambridge.  What this crisis has taught me is that doesn't mean as much as I thought.  Toby's dad famously had a word to get him in, Carl Heneghan and Sunetra Gupta also work there.  To be fair, most of the Oxbridge graduates I have worked with are very talented at much of their work.  You can obviously be intellectually brilliant and have flaws too... 

I am not sure what use there is from collecting the beliefs of the recently deceased about hlwhat their relatives died of.  Many won't have been there or fully understood all the symptoms of coronavirus.  Plus there are a bunch of grey areas, and some causes of deaths aren't clear, hence some death certificates will not be perfect.  We also know that many Covid deaths were incorrectly attributed to something else in the early days (excess deaths were way higher than Covid deaths).  But she is only investigating the ones that were incorrectly described as Covid and not the other way round, so she is unlikely to end up with a sensible conclusion.

We know that by looking at excess deaths, counting deaths within 28 days of a positive test or by investigaing death certificates that we end up with a similar number.  We also know the flaws in each method, but recognise that they are broadly correct overall.  So what does finding tens of suspicious ones tell you above this? What use does discovering that a relative isn't happy with what was on a death certificate? 

And she should know her audience has more than its fair share of cranks, so she should realise she is even less likely to get an unbiased sample?  If I asked her audience if the moon landings were faked, I wouldn't expect to get an answer in line with the general population. If I went beyond this, and specifically asked only those who thought the moon landings were faked to respond I'd get even worse data. 

Anyway, need a walk.

There is a shorter way of saying most of this.

The plural of anecdote is not data!

https://mobile.twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1374632570781065216

[Doobs]

I don't think I am the only one who can see issues.

https://mobile.twitter.com/DrDomPimenta/status/1374480816315588608

[Marky147]

They all moan about the '28 days of a test' thing creating fake COVID deaths, and then when they realise that certified deaths are much higher it's 'Doctors must be all faking death certificates'.

Amazing how someone would essentially end their career (Craig) over something that's going to be over in a couple years.

She's surely going to be unemployable, like most of them, unless David Icke sets up a crack team of investigators to solve the world's mysteries.

Then he'd have to share the pot of gold he's found, so that's unlikely to happen.

I know when you posted that video McDonald posted about modelling ages ago, he said about Gupta, and it seems they just all double down.

[Doobs]

I managed to find the Royal College of Pathologists statement on Clare craig

https://twitter.com/RCPath/status/1345724578648219648

The #COVID19 pandemic is a global health emergency caused by SARS-CoV-2. While we recognise that others are entitled to hold alternative views, we do not endorse these & they do not represent the College view.

They don't even name her, and is as feeble as criticism can be, but stlll seems to trigger some

https://twitter.com/emmakennytv/status/1346057250272632832


Hmmm....genuinely this tweet won’t age well...I’ve screen shot it...because accounts and balances will be returned for. Are you sure you wish to keep this tweet up?

The irony

[Marky147]

One thing you can never accuse the fail brigade of, is not sticking together.

[Marky147]

Pretty funny